Formula for picking great Adsense keywords?

[carlos123]

In learning to pick great keyword phrases to focus my efforts on I am wondering if the following are realistic figures to go on based on a #1 position in the SERPS for a given keyword phrase?

LSV (local search volume) - assume 100% of this traffic based the fact that traffic will come to me from phrases that I do not target but which are similar.
ECPC (estimated cost per click) - assume .50% of this per click.
CTR (click through rate) - assume a CTR of .05%.

So for example if a keyword phrase shows 3000 LSV at a ECPC of $2 and a CTR of .05% the total payout per day from Adsense would be $5.

As in...

3000 x .05 x ($2 x .50) / 30 days = $5 per day.

So

LSV x CTR x (ECPC / 2) / 30 = estimate of daily amount per day.

I realize that this is very rough and certainly not final with respect to whether keyword phrase is worth targeting but for purposes of this thread I am only interested in whether my assumption numbers are reasonable to expect.

If my assumptions are reasonable I will write a small computer program and just plug the numbers in as I go in analyzing further keywords.

Any input would be appreciated.

Thanks.

Carlos

[carlos123]

Hmm...oh well. I guess this is just another thread that will go down the drain with respect to people not wanting to discuss the nitty gritty details.

Maybe I got all too technical on you all or something. Adsense mathematical formula? Why there must be no such thing that will help us have an easier time of finding great keyword phrases to focus on.

Oh...I forgot...some of the very software programs used by people on this forum have such formulas within them.

I wonder if the programmers of Niche Market Ninja, Market Samarai and other such fine programs have forums where I can go hang out? I'll have to look into that.

Sigh...

Carlos

[Kay King]

Maybe I got all too technical on you all or something.

No - that's not it at all. You are trying to pull numbers out of the air when it can't be done.

You don't KNOW what the click will pay and if you find someone who tells you they do - they're lying. Google has a formula - but they don't pass it out. Generally you can "assume" that a high cost keyword (adwords cost, that is) will have a decent adsense payout ....but that payout depends on your competition, your site and your traffic. A new site will not get the same payment an authority site will....and there are other details involved, too.

All you control is the quality of the keyword research YOU DO, the quality of the site YOU BUILD, and the content YOU ADD to the site. Then you get traffic and if you chose a niche correctly, did good keyword research and built the site, optimized it and are getting traffic....

THEN you know what it will pay and what the % is.



kay

[carlos123]

Thanks for the input Kay. I thought for sure this thread was dead.

If I may engage you in a whee bit of a discussion on this though (totally up to you of course whether you give me more input on this but if you care to share more I am all ears). It is absolutely 100% true (there I go with a figure again LOL) that Google does not give out it's formula. But it seems to me that it is likewise just as true that we can derive some idea, albeit a very rough idea, of what kind of percentage of an advertisers CPC one is likely to end up with through an Adsense click.

Not exactly mind you for the reason you pointed out. Certainly not. But reasonable enough to allow us to use an educated guess in some sort of formula that might prove useful.

For example would anyone here say that an Adsense click will return 100% of the estimated CPC. No. No one would say that.

So we can correctly deduce that 100% is way too inflated of a figure to use.

Would anyone here say that an Adsense click will generally return nothing? Barring some special cases I think the answer to that would likewise be no.

So we can deduce that a reasonable percentage lies somewhere between getting nothing and getting 100%.

Can we get closer to an average somehow? I think we can.

I've been reading a lot of threads here and it seems that an average of 50% of the estimated CPC on a keyword phrase is about right. I mean as right as one can be based on the practical experiences of many who have talked in general percentages here.

Is that too high to be realistic? Then perhaps the percentage needs to go lower.

It's still a guess in a best case scenario but I am after a more educated guess than just picking a percentage out of a hat.

The best thing of course will be for me to keep my own stats and to determine this percentage based on real world Adsense use but since I do not yet have a bunch of Adsense sites I am left grappling in the dark for some way of determining what a reasonable percentage might be.

I understand that one's here may not want to divulge their percentages. I think such a thing is against Google rules if I am not mistaken. But surely one's here can tell me if I yell out "50%" whether I am warm, cold, or just completely out of the ballpark.

That's all I am really looking for. Some rough measure of direction from the masses of marketers here that will allow me to make a more educated guess.

I don't think Google would have any problem at all with people telling me whether in their Adsense site building experience most all the LSV traffic figure pans out to be true or whether they only see half of that coming to their position 1 sites. So no need to tell me whether I am getting warmer or colder on that figure. People can just tell me flat out if my figure of 50% of LSV traffic is reasonable to expect.

I am a relative newbie who is just looking for someone or someone's to just tell me whether I am way off, close enough, or about right with respect to these percentages. It's all opinions anyway but as a newbie it would be nice to get a more informed opinion on all this than to just make up numbers in my head without any rational basis for thinking they might be more accurate than picking numbers out of a hat.

Carlos

[Kay King]

Point is - that's not where the success lies. All the estimated formulas and guesses and opinions don't make money.

The percentage depends on the niche - I have some high and some low and some months the lower clickthrough sites end up making more money....go figure.

I understand wanting to lay everything out so it can be analyzed - but you can't do a good analysis with estimates and guesses. You'll end up with a bunch of numbers of what "could" happen - and it won't be worth a hoot.

If you haven't read Xfactor's adsense thread(s) here - search them out and read all of HIS posts in them. Then jump into the trenches and do it.

kay

[carlos123]

Originally Posted by Kay King

Point is - that's not where the success lies. All the estimated formulas and guesses and opinions don't make money.

I understand that Kay but I also think there is value in trying to be as good as one can be at picking good keyword phrases before getting involved in the grunt work of picking web sites and otherwise "just doing it".

If that was not the case then programs like Niche Market Ninja and Market Samarai would not be so useful at helping us save time (I cannot use either one under my Linux operating system).

I don't have analysis paralysis and prefer to do a bit more learning on picking good keyword phrases before I start in on creating web sites. That's just me. Others may be more the "just do it" types. I strive for balance either way.

The percentage depends on the niche - I have some high and some low and some months the lower clickthrough sites end up making more money....go figure.

I understand Kay but obviously there is some average that holds true for you as well as for every other successful internet marketer. That is all I am after and the only reason I really started this thread. Was to see if I could uncover some measure of knowledge regarding the average..well...averages .

I understand wanting to lay everything out so it can be analyzed - but you can't do a good analysis with estimates and guesses.

I am after nothing more or less than what Niche Market Ninja and Market Samarai do Kay. They do plenty of analysis with the same information I have access to (at least as far as Google is concerned). If I can't do good analysis with estimates and guesses then neither can they which is obviously not the case.

I could be wrong but I don't believe they have an inside scoop that is not available to others who only use the Google Keyword Tool (again I am referring only to those metrics that deal with Google not the other search engines).

You'll end up with a bunch of numbers of what "could" happen - and it won't be worth a hoot.

If that is so then how is it the case that the metrics put out by Niche Market Ninja and Market Samarai are worth anything at all? Would their guesses and estimates be likewise worthless? If one cannot make some educated and reasonable guesses I mean?

If you haven't read Xfactor's adsense thread(s) here - search them out and read all of HIS posts in them. Then jump into the trenches and do it.

I have read his thread Kay and I AM in the trenches. Every day. It's not like I am standing around analyzing for the sake of analyzing. I also read Mark's entire thread (internetmarketer99), copied ALL his posts and only his posts and am re-reading them as I go. I intend to do the same with John's posts too.

Thanks for your input. Much appreciated.

Carlos

[Kay King]

If you are already doing your sites then you can estimate and analyze all you want ...because you have something to work with.

I don't use either of the programs you are interested in - they weren't around when I started doing adsense years ago - and I just use my own instincts that I've developed....and research.

Good luck to you.

kay

[carlos123]

Originally Posted by Kay King

I don't use either of the programs you are interested in - they weren't around when I started doing adsense years ago - and I just use my own instincts that I've developed....and research.

Now if only some computer scientist could sit down with you and analyze you so as to create an artificially intelligent expert (the next wave in internet marketing software?). What you call your instincts computer programmers like me like to call...the algorithms that run inside your head .

I appreciate hearing from you Kay.

Carlos

[TomBond]

Hi Carlos,

I must say I sympathise with you on this one. It seems that unless you ask a question like 'What are backlinks?' you don't get much of a response.

Of course there is a rough formula you can put together to determine which keywords are best to target, and it would be very useful in determining future articles to write etc for a blog.

I think 50% of ECPC is probably a bit optimistic as an average. Whilst it is possible to get quite a few clicks at this %, it only takes a few low clicks to drive down the overall percentage. I would try with 40%

Your CTR seems very low to me, I consistently get 4% on my blogs.

To take your example:
if a keyword phrase shows 3000 LSV at a ECPC of $2 and a CTR of 4.0% the total payout per day from Adsense would be $9.6

What do you reckon?

[JMartin]

I looked up a KWP for a site I have had in AdSense for years and according to the CPC shown, I get between 10% and 50% of that figure. I'd say 25% is about the average.

[carlos123]

Now we're talking folks! Precisely the kind of information I was looking for. Just some general guidelines based on experience to help me better determine whether my percentages were close to what is realistic or way off. Thank you, thank you, thank you!

Distinctly_digital (I'm going to call you dd unless you object )...yeah it does seem that unless I ask things in a real newbie way here that I don't get much input. I'm trying to keep myself and my questions newbiesized for as long as I can LOL. I'll keep asking as long as I get some input.

Part of the reason for this I think is that people in general and probably a lot of people on this forum are so focused on the end result that the details involved in getting there and in becoming real good at the basics is not as popular to talk about.

I too have my eyes on the end result but I also realize that the very best way for me to get more efficient in achieving those end results is to focus on the basic beginning steps and to learn to do them real well. With keyword research and picking being the most basic and most important step.

Everything else stems from this. If I select keywords wisely things will be much, much easier on the tail end. If I select them poorly or too hastily I am in for a lot of additional work trying to rank in a more competitive or unprofitable niche.

It just makes sense for me to become a keyword phrase picking expert of sorts before I go running off half-cocked to build web sites to make a million.

I don't mean that it is good to get stuck in the keyword picking phase. Only that a bit more refinement in keyword picking will pay tremendous dividends on the backend in saving me time and frustration.

Based on your input I will change the estimated CPC to 40%. Thanks very much for that.

Regarding the CTR percent...

if a keyword phrase shows 3000 LSV at a ECPC of $2 and a CTR of 4.0% the total payout per day from Adsense would be $9.6

LSV x CTR x (ECPC / 2) / 30 = estimate of daily amount per day.

Let's see that's...

3000 x .05% x ($2 x .40%) / 30 = $4 per day. How do you get $9.6?

Let me narrow the equation down by substituting the actual calculations...

3000 x .05% x ($2 x .40%) / 30 =
150 x ($2 x .40) / 30 =
150 x .80 cents / 30 = $4 per day.

Yup. It still comes out to only $4 per day.

I can see from this that I am going to have to up my LSV amount of expected traffic significantly to come anywhere near $10 per day.

Jason...if we make the average CPC actually realized 25% as you suggest that makes things even worse.

So for DD's example above...

3000 x .05% x ($2 x .25%) / 30 =
150 x ($2 x .25) / 30 =
150 x .50 cents / 30 = $2.5 per day.

Hmm...a far cry from the $10 per day I am shooting for. Hmm...it looks like I am going to have to move all my numbers up by either aiming for keyword phrases that pay out more in ECPC or increased LSV numbers to have a keyword phrase look promising enough to take the time for a more detailed analysis (based on things like on-page SEO, quality of backlinks and other non-mathematical factors).

Thanks so very, very much to both of you for some great input!!

Carlos