google traffic estimator: how reliable are est. daily clicks?

[Hud]

I am wondering how reliable the estimated daily clicks for a keyword with google traffic estimator are?

I want to use the data to estimate how much I could be making daily if I have content ranking at no1 in the organics for that keyword, how many people would actually click adsense ads on that ranking page. does that make sense or not?

I am asking because right now I am doing seaches and the estimated clicks for most keywords are zero, and for some only below 10/day.

Now how I interpret the numbers a niche like that would be useless for adsense, but I think I am wrong. Can anyone help me out?

[paulgl]

Your adsense income is based mostly on what kind of site you decide
to build. It has little to do with SERPs, and nothing to do with any
pie-in-the-sky estimates. It has some to do with placement.

If you build it, they will click, does not work in the real world.

Google does not magically put high paying ads on your site. People
are not under a spell to click on them.

You are right. It is useless.

Paul

[Gadi]

Not very reliable as far as I can see. A few months ago Google slashed their keyword estimates. For example the keyword "diamond engagement rings" was estimated at 110,000 and now it is a mere 33,000. "Engagement rings" was 1,830,000 and now 550,000.

Apart from that, the estimates are levels of traffic rather than exact numbers. For example if the numbers are 33,000 then 60,500 then 110,000 then when a keyword falls between each level it will be in the category below I assume. I think this will work on an average over a number of months.

Apart from that, while a nice idea, the stats are completely different between paid and organic search. Most people tend to click on the organic, so #1 in paid isn't the same as #1 in organic. If you were to do such an experiment, you would need to have the highest bid and an unlimited daily budget. If you run that for a week or two, you'll have good stats on how many searches are performed for that keyword by looking at the number of impressions for your ad. Once you have that, assume about 40% will go to #1 spot, 10% to #2 and so on... (CTR on SERPs are available online if you look around).