Adsense expected income formula

[seoman76]

I would like to hear what you guys think from my keyword research formula that I created 5 minutes ago.

The formula's outcome is expressed in a realistic ammount of dollars that can be made through Adsense alone, considering your on page1 / position1.

Formula: (ES+((PS-ES)/2))*%clicks based on #1*CTR*(CPC/5)

Explained Formula:

(Exact searches monthly) +
((Phrase searches montly - Exact searches monthly) / 2 ) =

Total searches/month that you can expect
*
50% of clicks that you can expect from position1
*
10% of people that click your ads (Min. Click through rate based on buying keywords)
*
(Cost per click / 5)

Practical Example
Exact searches/month: 5000
Phrase searches/month: 12000
Click Through Rate: 10%
Cost per Click: $1,-

5000+((12000-5000)/2) = 8500 searches / month

8500 * 0.50 * 0.10 = 425 people that will click your add

425 * ($1 /5) = $85,- expected income.

Please be suggestive critical in your responses!

[paulgl]

You forgot your site quality and the quality of your visitors.
Which you cannot put in a formula.

There is no formula. Besides, you don't get the whole enchilada
from a click. Google gets part of it.

There is much, much more to how google decides what ads and
and what cost on your site that you could never put them in a formula.

Plus the content network is much cheaper than search to begin with.

I think too many people do these pie-in-the-sky calculations, leading
to dollar signs blinding their eyes. Then coming to the forum and
complaining that google must be cheating them.

Paul

[theplugindude]

Hi SEOMAN..I do not use that formula..
I use this..
Global monthly searches * Position of your site in Google * Adsense CPC * % of our share in the Adsense CPC * CTR of the ads..

The amount of traffic for each corresponding position in google's first page would be
- Position1: gets 50% of clicks
- Position2: gets 25% of clicks
- Position3: gets 10% of clicks
- Position4: gets 5% of clicks
- Position5: gets 3% of clicks
- Position6: gets 2% of clicks
- Position7: gets 1% of clicks
- Position8: gets 1% of clicks
- Position9: gets 3% of clicks
So..the value of Position of your site in Google - .03 if the position is 9 in google.com

Hope that helps..

Aravindh

[seoman76]

Originally Posted by paulgl

You forgot your site quality and the quality of your visitors.
Which you cannot put in a formula.

There is no formula. Besides, you don't get the whole enchilada
from a click. Google gets part of it.

There is much, much more to how google decides what ads and
and what cost on your site that you could never put them in a formula.

Plus the content network is much cheaper than search to begin with.

I think too many people do these pie-in-the-sky calculations, leading
to dollar signs blinding their eyes. Then coming to the forum and
complaining that google must be cheating them.

Paul

Yes Google gets part of it, thats why CPC/5 is included in the formula. This formula isn't meant to get an exact $$$ (I just wanted to come to 1 number and that tunred out to be expressed in $'s), but more to compare the overall profitability from keywords to eachother with some fixed numbers to get a somewhat reliable outcome of which Keywords to go after.

Using this formula I found out that of my keyword list of 200 I can easily throw away half of them as they are not worth to go after, less then $20/monthly, while at first glance they looked pretty good.

Quality of the site you have in your own hand so thats why I fixed the CTR to 10% to represent that kinda.

[seoman76]

Originally Posted by prats2992

Hi SEOMAN..I do not use that formula..
I use this..

Global monthly searches * Position of your site in Google * Adsense CPC * % of our share in the Adsense CPC * CTR of the ads..

So..the value of Position of your site in Google - .03 if the position is 9 in google.com

Hope that helps..

Aravindh

I should make a rough estimation of what position I will achieve based on the competition indeed.

Few doubts left:

- Global searches monthly or
- Exact searches + 50% of Phrase searches monthly

Which one would be better? Anyone?

Also I doubt about CPC / 5, is this realistic or should it more be like CPC/3 or CPC/7?