Expected income data vs actual real life income when searching for and starting a niche?

[Bulldozer]

I am using MarketSamurai to search for niches.
Today I found an interesting one.

The niche has only 3,000 [EXACT] monthly searches and that's not much, I know!

On the other hand MarketSamurai reports that AdwordsValue (AWV) of the niche is USD $410 per month - very comparable, if not better than many other micro niches that have 20,000+ [EXACT] monthly searches.
I guess the pay-per-click and the click-through rates for this niche are higher than average or something.

So, should I go for this niche?

I know that 3,000 searches will not generate much visits, even if you are ranked #1 on Google. Maybe 1000 visits monthly or something.
Small traffic is also bad for affiliate marketing - the number of people visiting your site will be just too small to expect any frequent sales.

But I don't care about affiliate marketing, I just want to make money with AdSense and MarketSamurai gives me good estimated values - hey, $410 per month from one site is OK.

Now, my other question is: how reliable is the info that MarketSamurai estimates?
I know that MS uses simple math calculations to estimate the monthly income but what if the PPCC and CTR info that MS gets from Google is not correct in the first place?

Does anybody have any experience with estimated MarketSamurai income VS actual real life income?
In other words: how accurate is the AWV info we get from Market Samurai?

[ExploringInfinity]

I don't trust market samurai much for anything anymore, but if you can rank for a keyword with 3000/month exact match searches and it has an average PPC of over $2 I would probably give it a try!

[Bulldozer]

Originally Posted by ExploringInfinity

I don't trust market samurai much for anything anymore, but if you can rank for a keyword with 3000/month exact match searches and it has an average PPC of over $2 I would probably give it a try!

Thank you for your reply.
I am glad to learn that other people are going for niches that get under 20,000 searches.
How realistic is it to expect $410 monthly from a niche like mine if we accept that everything MarketSamurai reports is true?

To be honest, I will be OK to earn $40 per month from my site.
And this brings the next question: how realistic is it to expect $40 from a 3,000 searches niche?

Anyone with factual data from their own experience?
Do super small niches with higher CTR really work or is it always safe to go for the bigger search volume niches, regardless of their CTRates?

[Bulldozer]

Any first-hand info?