Page 1, #7, still no sales, local monthly searches = 12000

[yusufjaafar]

I got a amazon review site that targeting keyword on product name that in first page of google ranking number #7 but still no sale.

Local monthly searches (USA) = 12000
Site age = 5 months

What should I do? Please share your thought...

[bmillionaire324]

Maybe your approach about the product... share your website so we can review what could be the problem

[revupcommerce]

How much traffic are you getting?
Where you are ranked does not mean much if you are not getting any traffic.
If you are getting traffic and no sales. I would switch to either adsense or the ebay affiliate program.
In my experience adsense has out performed both amazon and ebay.

[Morphius]

I bet your Local monthly searches (USA) = 12000 is broad and not exact.
Check the exact and you'll see different numbers.

[Brad789]

Yusufjaafar - Brad here. You didn't list your site. But an obvious thought that comes to mind - are your links built correctly so you get the sale credit?

Next, call to action. Are there a number of spots within the text where the reader can click thru. Many will not read an entire article. After a while it becomes almost second nature to figure out the entire article in the first 200 words.

Take a look at the offering and be sure it is market clearly -- click here to see etc.

Seems like I am being obvious - but sometimes it is just something simple. We are presuming the searchers are ready to buy as well.

There are blogs that go into searches in a lot of depth. Periodically, a keyword may seem like a "hummer" and turn out to be a "dud" for whatever reason.

Pat Flynn at SmartPassiveIncome.com talked about a similar experieince in his niche site challenge. He chose what looked like a killer key word that had duplicate meaning. In addition to what he was searching for - the keyword also referred to kickboxers. His site didn't get hits and then he discovered the site and changed approaches.

Hope that is useful.

Cheers ! Brad

[ColinChia]

Are you getting any traffic at all?

If you are and it's not converting... then check your copy or take the advice of the other warriors and change it up to a AdSense site!

I know this works for me

Hope this helps,

Colin

[UMS]

I'd be 99% certain that those local monthly searches are broad and not exact.

This is a very common mistake that people make and often baffles them when they rank their site on page 1 and get virtually no traffic.

[onSubie]

Hi

Is that 12,000 EXACT MATCH searches? That makes a huge difference.

Monthly searches mean nothing and do not convert. They are simply a statistical estimate on how many people are searching for that term in Google. It does not matter at all how many people are searching for your product when determining sales.

What matters is how many people are actually coming to your page.

How many unique visitors are you getting?

If you are getting thousands of vistors but no sales, then work on your conversions. Better reviews, more "click" enticing links, etc.

If you aren't getting any traffic then look at the keywords you are using and the page Title and Description.

Both of these show in the Google Search results and can make a big difference on whether searchers click on your links or someone else's link with a more enticing Title.

You can increase traffic by pumping up your article titles and descriptions.

Is your "Boring Blah Blah Product Review" title competing with "Don't buy blah blah product until you read this insane review" in a competing link?

Is your description: "An in depth review of the latest blah blah product?"

Or is it: "This myth shattering review uncovers the real secret to finding the best blah blah product?"

Getting traffic and then converting that traffic is a lot more than the number of searches estimated in Google statistics.

Using those stats and finding keywords to rank high in Google is only the first step. You then need to convince searchers to choose your link over others on the page. This is with your Title and Description.

Once they have chosen your link over others, you need to convert them. This is with compelling content and getting them to take action and click your affiliate links.

Mahlon

[yusufjaafar]

Thanks for all the reply.

Ok, I'll share my site here:

My site: vizioxvt553svs.com

Main keyword: vizio xvt553sv (product name)

EXACT local monthly searches: 12000 (Please check it)

Average traffic per day: 12 unique visitors


Is it my problem is my traffic is still not enough or my site has low conversion.

Warriors, please share your thought.

[Kevin_Hutto]

Its going to take a lot of traffic to convert a $1600 product... Normal conversion rates you hear about on Amazon will not apply for that type of product.

[onSubie]

Yep,my research shows 14,000+ exact match.

Here is what I see, not sure if it makes a difference.

In the search results:

The title showing is Vizio XVT553SV - Read Xvt553sv Review Here

You could make that a little more enticing or eye catching so people get curious about what the review says.

Your description is:

If you're looking for a review for vizio xvt553sv, you're in the right place. Read our review first before you decide to buy vizio xvt553sv.

Again, this could be much better copy to compel searches to go to your site.


On the page:

The page looks great the only thing I can think of is:

All you links say click here for "free shipping" or "to buy".

You want to send your traffic to Amazon because you get a commission no matter what they buy. If they aren't actually ready to buy your reviewed item they may not be interested in free shipping or "to buy" so don't click the links. But they may follow a link that says:

Click Here for more info from Amazon

or

Click her for more real customer reviews

Once on Amazon's site, they may buy other products that you get commission on.

You also don't have any "in line" embedded text links.

Links embeddied in your review text also get lots of clicks. So from you site you could make the bolded text below an affiliate link to Amazon:

Some of the other benefits of having this feature in Vizio xvt553sv LCD television are that it provides you with Pandora internet radio through which you can listen to various songs of your choice.

For conversions you want to look at your traffic stats. Go to your cpanel and check the AWStats a great deal of info there.

Once you have total traffic over say 1,000 you should have enough variety in traffic that you get some conversions and can start calculating a conversion rate.

I have an Amazon site I haven't touched since I built it that is in a competitive niche, is not ranking and has no backlinks and I still managed to sell a Laser Rangefinder.



Mahlon

[guitarjosh]

Actually, I show 14,800 exact searches.

Your problem is traffic. 12 visitors a day just ain't gonna cut it.
Walmart and Amazon's results being right above yours isn't helping you either.

[onSubie]

Originally Posted by Kevin_Hutto

Its going to take a lot of traffic to convert a $1600 product... Normal conversion rates you hear about on Amazon will not apply for that type of product.

That is not usually a big issue if you are targeting buying keywords. Buyers who are searching know it costs $1,600.

It is a big purchasing decision, but if you can target and rank for good buying keywords you will make sales.

It's not like when I go shopping for a car I am surprised to find it is $11,000 and not $9.99. But I may shop a little longer before committing.

The later in the research/buying decision making process you can nab the prospect, the better.

The key is "buyer" keywords so you get targeted buyer traffic, not just information seekers.


You point about the high price is also why it is good to say "for more information" or "for more customer reviews" in the affiliate link text instead of "to buy now" or "get free shipping". People will click through without being scared into thinking they are committing to a purchase decision with the click.



Mahlon

[yusufjaafar]

Originally Posted by Kevin_Hutto

Its going to take a lot of traffic to convert a $1600 product... Normal conversion rates you hear about on Amazon will not apply for that type of product.

Is that true? So, how much conversion rate I must expect to see some sales?

[yusufjaafar]

Originally Posted by onSubie

That is not usually a big issue if you are targeting buying keywords. Buyers who are searching know it costs $1,600.

It is a big purchasing decision, but if you can target and rank for good buying keywords you will make sales.

It's not like when I go shopping for a car I am surprised to find it is $11,000 and not $9.99. But I may shop a little longer before committing.

The later in the research/buying decision making process you can nab the prospect, the better.

The key is "buyer" keywords so you get targeted buyer traffic, not just information seekers.


You point about the high price is also why it is good to say "for more information" or "for more customer reviews" in the affiliate link text instead of "to buy now" or "get free shipping". People will click through without being scared into thinking they are committing to a purchase decision with the click.

Mahlon



Mahlon

I am much agree with you. I feel weird when that guy said $1600 product cannot apply the same conversion rate as low price product.

[yusufjaafar]

Thanks. Yeah maybe I need to work more on my conversion and of course traffic.

Originally Posted by onSubie

Yep,my research shows 14,000+ exact match.

Here is what I see, not sure if it makes a difference.

In the search results:

The title showing is Vizio XVT553SV - Read Xvt553sv Review Here

You could make that a little more enticing or eye catching so people get curious about what the review says.

Your description is:

If you're looking for a review for vizio xvt553sv, you're in the right place. Read our review first before you decide to buy vizio xvt553sv.

Again, this could be much better copy to compel searches to go to your site.


On the page:

The page looks great the only thing I can think of is:

All you links say click here for "free shipping" or "to buy".

You want to send your traffic to Amazon because you get a commission no matter what they buy. If they aren't actually ready to buy your reviewed item they may not be interested in free shipping or "to buy" so don't click the links. But they may follow a link that says:

Click Here for more info from Amazon

or

Click her for more real customer reviews

Once on Amazon's site, they may buy other products that you get commission on.

You also don't have any "in line" embedded text links.

Links embeddied in your review text also get lots of clicks. So from you site you could make the bolded text below an affiliate link to Amazon:

Some of the other benefits of having this feature in Vizio xvt553sv LCD television are that it provides you with Pandora internet radio through which you can listen to various songs of your choice.

For conversions you want to look at your traffic stats. Go to your cpanel and check the AWStats a great deal of info there.

Once you have total traffic over say 1,000 you should have enough variety in traffic that you get some conversions and can start calculating a conversion rate.

I have an Amazon site I haven't touched since I built it that is in a competitive niche, is not ranking and has no backlinks and I still managed to sell a Laser Rangefinder.



Mahlon

[GaryG4]

Originally Posted by Morphius

I bet your Local monthly searches (USA) = 12000 is broad and not exact.
Check the exact and you'll see different numbers.

This was my first thought.

Its a lie to go by the broad. You can have 12000 with a broad match but the exact is like 100.

Also even if it has 12000 exact matches your at #7. 80% of the clicks is going to the top 5 spots.

If your at #7 you are close to getting to number 1-5. I would buy some backlinking packages and seo links, edu links from fiverr.com and make a push to get your site to 1-5.

Also first thing is install google analytics to your site and get a more accurate look at what type of real visitors your getting. Then after you have done this... then start tweaking the site.

But first get analytics... then backlinks.... then change site.

Good luck!

[yusufjaafar]

Thanks.. I plan to do that. Especially buy backlink package to boost my ranking.

Originally Posted by GaryG4

This was my first thought.

Its a lie to go by the broad. You can have 12000 with a broad match but the exact is like 100.

Also even if it has 12000 exact matches your at #7. 80% of the clicks is going to the top 5 spots.

If your at #7 you are close to getting to number 1-5. I would buy some backlinking packages and seo links, edu links from fiverr.com and make a push to get your site to 1-5.

Also first thing is install google analytics to your site and get a more accurate look at what type of real visitors your getting. Then after you have done this... then start tweaking the site.

But first get analytics... then backlinks.... then change site.

Good luck!

[MaverickUK]

The CTR for 7th position is likely to be around 3%, so you're getting the right amount of traffic for your positioning.

[Yimes]

I am new here (first post) and I will not pretend to know near as much as most, but, after reading the first couple paragraphs of your site and looking at some of the headings what jumps out at me is that your grammar is not great.

Please don't take offense , but as a potential buyer, if I am reading your site and see copy like this: "It is one of the best things to buy in the tech world and the reasons to get attracted to these piece of electronic is" or " It gives a total different and amazing look while watching any of the sports channel.", it makes me think that this is not a professional or trustworthy site.

If I am going to buy something online, especially at this price, I need to trust the site and I need to feel it is a professional site. I don't get those feelings because of the grammar.

Of course I already know (from this thread) that the sale will be through Amazon, but someone else seeing the site for the first time might not. My suggestion (along with agreeing about the need for more traffic) is to have someone proofread the site and help to tweak the wording.

I hope my thoughts help and do not offend. Good luck.

[Wham]

The difference in traffic from #1 and #7 is pretty substantial. Continue building links and doing what you can to rank up.

Even though the people are interested in buying the TV, it doesn't necessarily mean it's something they want to buy online. Personally if it was me that was interested in buying a TV like that, I'd look up the review online and then go buy it in a store. Though if you can get the top spot, surely you will get some conversions so long as your content is good, as in not too salesy. Products on amazon can save people money though vses buying things in store, so mention it's the cheapest place you found to buy it.

[yusufjaafar]

Originally Posted by MaverickUK

The CTR for 7th position is likely to be around 3%, so you're getting the right amount of traffic for your positioning.

Yes. Thats right. 3% of 12000 per month will be 360.
So I will get 360 visitors per month and 12 visitors per day.

[gmil88]

I think you are on your way my friend, great job. Do some backlinking to try to break into the top 5 and just keep at it, the sales will come.

[thecableguy]

Look at the Local search trends, the search numbers are for a 12 month average so it's a lot less than 12,000 searches. This often happens with hdtvs. If you catch it while it's still rising great, but often times people just look at the search numbers. And the "shelf life" is basically Nov and Dec, then the new models comes out. It's not "evergreen".

[theverysmartguy]

Originally Posted by GaryG4

If your at #7 you are close to getting to number 1-5. I would buy some backlinking packages and seo links, edu links from fiverr.com and make a push to get your site to 1-5.

Wow, look how long it took until someone actually told you what the problem probably is.

You are #7. You need to be a little higher up on google to start seeing if your copy is converting. Start wondering once you reach the top 3 positions.

I would advise you to change it to adsense. This way you get paid just for the clicking, instead of hoping someone is going to buy a $1500 item. Vizio gets about $1 - $2.85 bids on adsense ( this is found through the contexual targeting tool ).

-- Jeff

[yusufjaafar]

Thanks for your advice.
Shame to me. Its not professional at all.

Originally Posted by Yimes

I am new here (first post) and I will not pretend to know near as much as most, but, after reading the first couple paragraphs of your site and looking at some of the headings what jumps out at me is that your grammar is not great.

Please don't take offense , but as a potential buyer, if I am reading your site and see copy like this: "It is one of the best things to buy in the tech world and the reasons to get attracted to these piece of electronic is" or " It gives a total different and amazing look while watching any of the sports channel.", it makes me think that this is not a professional or trustworthy site.

If I am going to buy something online, especially at this price, I need to trust the site and I need to feel it is a professional site. I don't get those feelings because of the grammar.

Of course I already know (from this thread) that the sale will be through Amazon, but someone else seeing the site for the first time might not. My suggestion (along with agreeing about the need for more traffic) is to have someone proofread the site and help to tweak the wording.

I hope my thoughts help and do not offend. Good luck.

[yusufjaafar]

Originally Posted by thecableguy

Look at the Local search trends, the search numbers are for a 12 month average so it's a lot less than 12,000 searches. This often happens with hdtvs. If you catch it while it's still rising great, but often times people just look at the search numbers. And the "shelf life" is basically Nov and Dec, then the new models comes out. It's not "evergreen".

I don't really understand what you're saying. Can you please clarify a bit...

[theverysmartguy]

Originally Posted by yusufjaafar

I don't really understand what you're saying. Can you please clarify a bit...

What he is basically saying is: The product has a very limited window of opportunity to make money with. Once the next model comes out, the last model will not get that many searches at all; if any.

Evergreen = topics that are always being searched. Such as the topics in the : health, wealth and love niches.

-- Jeff

[Raindance]

I find your site to be very clean but the only problem is, your content is not exciting and has many grammatical errors. Such content can create the image in the reader's head that he's not on a credible site and hence add to the bounce rate. The theme, images, everything looks very cool but you need much better content to keep your visitor hooked for as long as at least hitting the link.

[thecableguy]

Originally Posted by yusufjaafar

I don't really understand what you're saying. Can you please clarify a bit...

For example, if there was a product that had 10,000 searches say in August, then they found a defect in September and sale plummeted to zero it would still show the search volume at 5,000 even though it is zero.

They go back and get the total volume from the previous 12 months and divide by 12 to get the search figures. So last Nov and Dec it was way over 12,000, but now it's way under that. The average.

[benjaedging]

Originally Posted by Morphius

I bet your Local monthly searches (USA) = 12000 is broad and not exact.
Check the exact and you'll see different numbers.

Was just about to say this as well.

[yusufjaafar]

Originally Posted by justpro

You need to develop the site a little to view as buy now ,The cheapest palace or something like .

If I provide another place that more cheaper, thats mean I need to sign up with another affiliate network beside amazon.

I am not really sure another great affiliate network for physical product beside amazon.

[yusufjaafar]

Originally Posted by theverysmartguy

What he is basically saying is: The product has a very limited window of opportunity to make money with. Once the next model comes out, the last model will not get that many searches at all; if any.

Evergreen = topics that are always being searched. Such as the topics in the : health, wealth and love niches.

-- Jeff

So you're saying that maybe my keyword will not be profitable in long term basis.

So, what should I do? How do I check this exact searches right now? Maybe its 12000 about 6 months ago, right now maybe its only get 1000 searches per month? So how do I check this.

[thecableguy]

Somebody said you could go to insights and download a csv file that shows the individual month searches. But JMO, using the product number in the domain for an hdtv you'll be running on a treadmill. The lifecycle of SPECIFIC hdtv models isn't very long, and then it's on to the next product number domain.

[John Romaine]

Two immediate suggestions....

1. Improve your search placement positioning
2. Split test

EDIT....

Take a good look at your website and ask yourself "Would I be likely to spend money here, or at the least TRUST this website..?"

I dont know about you, but for me - ABSOLUTELY NOT.

How about instead of just slapping up a dirty Wordpress Blog you make an effort, get access to the product you're promoting, shoot some videos, show people how it works, how great it is, its advantages, its downsides, pricing etc.

Hey, theres a thought.

Transparency and honesty ......

[onegoodman]

From what I can see, you rank # 7 is not good enough and the current rate of visitor is low.

Try to get more Keywords and more visitors.

Give PPC a shot on google, to find out where you stand

[Richard Van]

Interesting, at the bottom of Vizio's website it says...

© 2011. The V, VIZIO, VIZIO Internet Apps (V.I.A.), Theater 3D, Full Array TruLED, Edge Lit Razor LED, 240Hz SPS, 480Hz SPS, Entertainment Freedom and Entertainment Freedom For All names, logos and phrase are registered or unregistered trademarks of VIZIO, Inc. All other trademarks may be the property of their respective holders.

Also...

VIZIO is a registered trademark of VIZIO, Inc. dba V, Inc.

So the OP also has a trademarked domain.

Can I assume you've approached Vizio and they're happy that you're trying to make money off the back of this trademarked domain?

[Ga RedNeck]

The guy above is Right i Havent checked but if your at number 7 the clicks will be ALOT less you need to in 3rd at most
And it is a high $$ product id make the sales page really jump out and want to buy

[Ga RedNeck]

Alot of guys are doing this and its only a matter of time before someone gets slapped.

Originally Posted by Richard Van

Interesting, at the bottom of Vizio's website it says...

Also...

So the OP also has a trademarked domain.

Can I assume you've approached Vizio and they're happy that you're trying to make money off the back of this trademarked domain?

[Richard Van]

Originally Posted by Madmaxine

Alot of guys are doing this and its only a matter of time before someone gets slapped.

Exactly.

I was more surprised that on a forum like this it took almost 40 posts for someone to tell the OP that all the hard work he's putting into this could be taken away at any time and to make matters worse he's just come onto a huge forum and told the the whole of the internet about it.

Incidentally many people have already been slapped, including me some years ago.

[Steven Wagenheim]

12,000 monthly searches, even exact match, is a drop in the bucket, especially
since you're only ranked 7th on the page.

Let's assume the total searches are evenly distributed among the top 7 sites.
They're really not as the top 3 will get most of the traffic, especially if their
meta tag descriptions are excellent.

If you divide 12,000 by 7, that adds up to about 1,700 visitors a month or
about 57 visitors a day. And that's a best case scenario.

And in reality, the top 3 sites are probably getting 70% of the traffic.

And that is assuming that each search results in the person going to at least
ONE site. Some people do a search, see the sites listed, don't like any of
the descriptions, and go NOWHERE.

Point is, you're not going to get a lot out of ONE keyword with 12,000
monthly exact match searches.

You need MORE keywords and MORE searches.

Naturally, this varies from niche to niche and keyword to keyword. Some
niches are so non competitive that one keyword can get you 1,000 visitors
a month or more. I do that with some of my health sub niches. But those
are the exception rather than the rule.

Come back here and tell us your woes when you're targeting 50 keywords
with 200,000 monthly searches and only getting 100 visitors a month.

Then we'll talk.

[thecableguy]

Interesting, at the bottom of Vizio's website it says...

Also...

So the OP also has a trademarked domain.

Can I assume you've approached Vizio and they're happy that you're trying to make money off the back of this trademarked domain?

Yeah forgot to mention that about the trademarked names. I see a lot of marketers doing that and that could get you terminated from the affiliate program. These visitors are very highly targeted, but if you're going with product number domains I'd use the product number ONLY, much safer and often times they get more searches.

[theverysmartguy]

Originally Posted by thecableguy

Yeah forgot to mention that about the trademarked names. I see a lot of marketers doing that and that could get you terminated from the affiliate program. These visitors are very highly targeted, but if you're going with product number domains I'd use the product number ONLY, much safer and often times they get more searches.

Putting the trademark in the domain can be bad yes; so can the product number.

If you put the product number in the domain this will limit the life span of that domain over all. Once the new model comes out or this one has been discontinued he is left with a pretty worse-less website.

It is best to put the main domain as a broad targeted keyword ( once that isnt specific to a particular item.). Since you are targeting HD TVs, use something like: hdtvreviews.com or besthdtvreviews.com etc etc. ( no I did not check to see if they were available, they are just examples.)

Then, on EACH page you can target a specific make and model of the main targeted product ( HD TVs).

Remember, you are not necessarily trying to rank JUST the domain. You should be trying to rank each page individually. As Google sees each page differently, and treats them differently as well. Each page will have its own placement, its own backlinks and its own PR. Almost as if each page was a mini website attached to a much bigger site; one on the verge of being an authority site.

This way when the next model comes out you can put up a new page and target that one for placement.

The more pages you have positioned on the first page of google the more traffic you will have, and the more sales/money you will make.

-- Jeff

[warner444]

Research and study sales conversion. Do split testing.

[lovboa]

It could be just me...
but do people really type in the tv model in Google and then buy from these sites?
I would buy small products like books or clothes online, but I don't think I would ever purchase a tv online. And if I did, I would just go to bestbuy.com or a really big brand trusted web vendor.

[imweb]

Originally Posted by Kevin_Hutto

Its going to take a lot of traffic to convert a $1600 product... Normal conversion rates you hear about on Amazon will not apply for that type of product.

Not true at all. I can convert $1,600 priced products at 10% on Amazon, so you don't need much traffic at all. 30% is quite easy to acheive too.

@OP Those Adsense ads must go. Sending your traffic to another site for pennies is not going to make you any sales.

You should be able to make 1 or 2 sales a day from 12 visitors.

You need to think like your visitor. They're shopping around looking for the lowest price. If Amazon doesn't have the lowest price then don't promote that product on Amazon. This can make all the difference between a 1% conversion rate and a 30% conversion rate.

If Amazon has the lowest price make sure you mention that on your page so your visitors can't possibly miss it.

[tycoon828]

According to the statistics, if your website rank No7, you get the least percent of visitors on the first page. It's less than 2%.

So 12000 monthly search, you can get about 240 visitors per month.

[TheFBGuy]

Fix these 2 things and I promise you, you will see a sale. Ignore everything else people told you.

1: You need more traffic - top 3 for your main keyword, heck even position 5 if you can.

2: FIX YOUR COPY/CONTENT!

If you are currently getting only 12 unique visitors of targeted buyers and your copy is that bad, your conversation rate will be almost 0. However... even if you are getting just 12 targeted buyers a day, if you have great copy, you can still squeeze a sale here and there.

[mkl3377]

Here's what I would have done for your site.

Domain = would have gotten one that was more generic like Vizioxvtseries.com so I can target more models with one model tv per page. Allows you to target more kw and give your site more trust and authority. then every year when Vizio comes out with the next series you can target everything they have. (but not a big deal cuz you can still do the same thing with the current domain)

Also, you need something more catchy for your meta description.
"If you're looking for a review for vizio xvt553sv, you're in the right place."(I'm already searching for Vizio xvt553sv thats how i arived at this search result. this question is redundnat and waste valuable ad space)

"Read our review first before you decide to buy vizio xvt553sv" This line is much better and you should have more of this style of writing in the meta description.

Search Volume-
12k is avg in the last 12 month. But if you go to google trends you'll see that 95% of volume is coming from nov2010 to jan11 where it peaked at close to 30k. Now this kw's volume is practically non existent as you can see from your experience. Your site is ranking #2 from where I live so it is in a good spot.

Now can you convert really low search volume? Yes but you'd hve to have very compelling content. From meny of th post here we know hat needs some work. Hmm. so unprofessional with all my typos. Have you lost confidence in me yet? I think it is much easier to learn to drive more traffic and find kw with better search volume than it is to learn how to write compeling copy.

I think the main problem here is that you chose a bad time to go after this kw. You've got a good handle at the site layout and ranking for your desiered kw. I think if you did a littel better KW and market research you will find a gem that will make money for you.

Good Luck.

[dagaul101]

It might simply be that the audience for that keyword are not purchasing as much as you hope, sometimes it takes nothing but trial and error to find a winning forumla