I have taken following explanation from
Working Out How Much Adsense Income A Keyword Phrase Can Earn for You - Advanced Auto Blogging
To know how much a keyword phrase can earn from Adsense we need to consider 4 factors. The 4 factors are:
1. The monthly search volume for the keyword phrase.
2. The percentage of searchers we expect to go to our website if we have a number one ranking for the keyword phrase.
3. The percentage of those visitors to our website we expect to click on one of the Adsense ads on the site.
4. The amount of money we expect Google to pay us for each click on an Adsense ad.
Okay, lets look at how we combine these factors together to work out the Adsense earning potential.
We use the Google Adwords Keyword Tool to get the Global Monthly Searches and the Estimated Avg. CPC (estimated average cost per click) figures for your keyword phrase. For example, for the phrase “hand held gps” the Global Monthly Searches is 5,400 and the Avg. CPC is $1.90.
Now I am going to estimate that if one of our websites has the number 1 ranking for a search for “hand held gps”, then 40% of the searchers will click through to our website.
Therefore the number of monthly visitors to our site will be:
5,400 x 0.40 =2,160
Next I am going to assume that 5% of those visitors will click on one of the Adsense ads on the website:
2,160 x 0.05 = 108
Now I am going to estimate that Google will pay us 25% of the average cost per click amount for every click on an Adsense ad. So to complete the earning potential calculation we multiply the number of Adsense clicks from above (108) by the Avg. CPC amount ($1.90) by 25%:
108 x $1.90 x 0.25 = $51.30
Therefore the estimated monthly Adsense earning potential for the keyword phrase “hand held gps” is $51.30.
To summarise, the formula is:
Monthly Adsense Earning Potential = Searches x 0.4 x 0.05 x CPC x 0.25
This can be simplified as:
Monthly Adsense Earning Potential = Searches x CPC x 0.005
Hope this help.