Google Could Disappear

[GlobalTrader]

Just read a very interesting article and thought it might be of interest to others here at the forum:

Here's Why Google Could Disappear in Five Years: Pro - US Business News - CNBC

[jfambrini]

Nope. Not likely. Yahoo sank because it did not have unique search technology. Google is ahead of its competiton in every field and is innovating in every field it is. it is also active in the mobile field so eventually it will come up with a viable mobile ad platform as well. If it happened it would happen because uninformed analysts keep panning the stock down and it loses its capital base or Google gets too greedy and degrades user search experience in chasing after more and more ad dollars and sinks itself. The third scenario is its tightening noose around SEO community, if it continues this path its organic results would be useless and users will move on.

[mamadou]

Anyway , there is an old say in my country " What goes up very high must come down someday"

[sdlive]

the only ones interested are the ones who are spammers and got penalized by google.

[Lucid]

>> The primary reason Google may lose its search dominance is because of the mobile ads problem.

That is not likely a problem that will persist for very long. As advertisers get smarter, they'll migrate to mobile if their prospects are indeed searching there. They should already be there as Adwords shows on mobiles, just that advertisers may have to do things differently. If people are mostly using Google as their search engine, they are likely using it on their mobiles too so I don't see where Google will lose. The advertisers need to adapt and they will.

>> its cost per click (CPC) was down 15 percent in the third quarter.

This doesn't mean Google is making less money. In fact, they could be making more and probably are.

This is the same argument we see here when someone posts a "my CPC is down, what can I do" thread. They don't look at the click rate. That's how the system works: the best quality ads are those maximizing revenues and those are the ones shown more often, not necessarily those willing to pay more. So you could be making more money even though the CPC is down.

There could be other reasons for the CPC going down. One is advertisers getting smarter and giving what Google wants: higher quality ads. If so, click rates are going up and I bet you they are going up more than 15% to make up for the loss in CPC. Looking at just CPC doesn't tell the whole story in this case.

Also, Google is innovative and progressive. I think they will continue to do so and that will increase their profits. I am not worried for them.

>> The number one contender may just be Apple

That's weird since Apple is not in the search engine business and have not announced any plans to do so. They do however have a large share of mobile devices and I've heard that the default browser on them is Yahoo, someone correct me if I'm wrong. So the direct beneficiary is Yahoo. Nothing prevents Apple to create their own browser and engine for their devices in which case, yes, they could become a major contender in taking away mobile advertising profits from Google. As the article mentions too, they have Siri. But how come we haven't heard of Apple selling advertising using that platform yet?

[aygabtu]

Originally Posted by Lucid

>>
That's weird since Apple is not in the search engine business and have not announced any plans to do so. They do however have a large share of mobile devices and I've heard that the default browser on them is Yahoo, someone correct me if I'm wrong. So the direct beneficiary is Yahoo. Nothing prevents Apple to create their own browser and engine for their devices in which case, yes, they could become a major contender in taking away mobile advertising profits from Google. As the article mentions too, they have Siri. But how come we haven't heard of Apple selling advertising using that platform yet?

Apple does have their own browser, Safari.

[MarkBrook]

I dont think so that this will happen because Google has a lot of power in shares and every thing !

[paulgl]

If that's true, then FB was gone as of yesterday...
FB is quite a money pit.

People don't read full reports. The mobile ads side was
booming...it's their ownership of motorola that tanked.
But google looked for long term results with motorola.
They want the android to be the default when people
think of smartphone.

It took years for google to make a profit with youtube, and
I'm not sure if it's actually doing much now. Who here says
to dump youtube?

It may surprise you how long amazon.com took to turn one
dime of profit.

Here's a projection: CNBC will be on the ropes in 5 years.

CNBC ‘freaking out’ over decline in ratings

Paul

[socialbacklink]

People keep saying this kind of stuff. It's the same thing they've been saying about Microsoft for years. Linux was going to put them under, Apple was going to put them under, blah blah blah. It's always something. Usually the only people that want something like Google done away with are the ones that are competing against them or the ones they've smacked down for not following the rules.

[hardwork7]

wow, but yeah, I don't think that google will disappear anytime soon.

[Warock]

Google disappear, no more search engine lol.

[Lucid]

Originally Posted by aygabtu

Apple does have their own browser, Safari.

Thanks. Forgot about that. Obviously, I don't use Apple products. But that's on their computers only, right, or is Safari part of their phones too? Still, there's a difference between having a browser and a search engine.

Originally Posted by paulgl

Here's a projection: CNBC will be on the ropes in 5 years. CNBC ‘freaking out’ over decline in ratings

It's the same all over the television industry. Ratings and ad revenues are going down for the most part. The industry will have to reinvent itself IMO in order to survive and probably a lot of them won't. A specific problem with outfits like CNBC and Fox is the poor journalism. Young people are staying away and getting their news elsewhere. It probably won't take five years before they really are on the ropes unless they adapt and change.

[johnben1444]

The truth is, nothing is impossible....it's best to leave all options open.

[MikeFriedman]

Originally Posted by Lucid

A specific problem with outfits like CNBC and Fox is the poor journalism.

What? With Fox's completely unbiased reporting... No way.

[Rehmat]

Google "All Rounds" the world of Internet. It is versatile and changes itself even before the time demands........ We should understand this, and the article has been written just for driving some traffic

[ezpay4me]

Originally Posted by socialbacklink

People keep saying this kind of stuff. It's the same thing they've been saying about Microsoft for years. Linux was going to put them under, Apple was going to put them under, blah blah blah. It's always something. Usually the only people that want something like Google done away with are the ones that are competing against them or the ones they've smacked down for not following the rules.

I agree with you, and actually after reading the article I begging to wonder that there hasn't probably even been a single input from someone who knows Google, how it works, how to utilize it so on and so on, I'm begging to think that Google's competitors hired these stock experts to look at Google ratings and base a verdict on that.. well thats ridiculous I bet most of those guys don't even know anything about search engines, 2ndly Google IS the "internet" when people think of internet they will most often think of google thus its as if it had been embedded in us and I don't think its going to disappear. If anything I think they will expand once Facebook falls, *if you don't believe me about facebook then I don't give a sh*T "with a capital T"*

Take a look at MySpace and Facebook , there is nothing uniquely special in their difference the only thing that makes one out compete the other is popularity and poeple let me tell you that FACTOR isn't in the hand of these companies for all we know a brand new Social Media site very similar to these two pops. A few very popular people began using it and their followers say "ohh he on that site, OK" and there goes Facebook.

I mean thats what really happend to Myspace , ok I think I'm just rambling on now so I will leave...

[Toyota Hilux Dealer]

If Google can be as nimble and as innovative as Apple has been then it surely can weather any storm. Apple was left for dead before Steve Jobs pumped new life into it. With Apple stock then at $15 who could have imagined the amazing turnaround waiting for it.

[Stephen Crooks]

While I believe the headline is purely sensational and a bit far fetched, I do believe the monopoly that Google has enjoyed for the past ten years is coming to an end.

I don't believe Facebook will be the main competitor but I do believe Apple will be the main competitor. The reason being that as mobile search grows exponentially then the winner will be whoever builds the most successful mobile hardware. There is only one winner here and that winner is Apple, and that will be the case for the foreseeable future.

The article talks about Siri being the future and I think this could be the case but before this happens, a revolution in the way we use Siri will have to occur. I am talking about the same level of revolution as SMS or indeed when Google first came onto the scene.

People and technology continue to evolve and finding things we want on mobile devices is certainly the future.

[JakeDaly]

CNBC is in one business: Ratings

[hondablaster]

I think you guys are overstating Google's long term dominance.

If Google has one really unprofitable year, (or even a quarter) do you think they will stay the same? Free this, free that, chrome this, droid that etc.

They can definitely shrink down and scale back. Google may not go away just as Yahoo is still around. But it can definitely change and loose ground in the next 5 years.

All it takes is one scandal, or breach of privacy and poop. Bing just gained 5%-10% more ground. It may be even be just crappy search results.

Also back in late 90's I remember walking up to a magazine counter and seeing "Yahoo Magazine" and I thought wow Yahoo is going to rule to world one day. Heck everyone did! It would be naive for me to assume that this cannot happen more than once.

Google lost its focus on premium search and now favors CPC ads and cloaks its intentions under the guise of quality. I think that is a half truth: They want more sites giving out information (sites that don't care about traffic or revenue) but all sales oriented sites need to run through an ad service some how as Google wants its cut and will make any excuse in the book. Google shopping is now a CPC service as of August. Youtube has some thing going on as well.

Once your stock price gets to a certain point it becomes hard to go back to your roots. Everyone wants more more more and that is how you loose your reputation and your brand. Who's to say they would not start charging eCommerce sites just be able to be in Google organically.

As a company hires more people the influence of and vision of the original creators is diluted and profit always means more to the majority. Everyone wants to keep their job and make more money and none of these newer hires understands how the brand came to be in the first place. The influence of the many conquers the original founders.

I am not expert and not even sure if this link is relevant but I like it.

www paulgraham com/yahoo.html