Google AdWords Keyword Tool inaccuracies?

[Seekness]

I've been using the keyword tool to come up with new search terms that I'd like to achieve a top rank for. My only problem is that I'm not sure all of the work will be worth the efforts because I don't know how accurate the AdWords tool is.

There's a term that I now rank first overall for on Google, and the keyword tool shows a global monthly search volume of 301,000. This is a search term that has nothing to do with trends and should remain stable over time.

The problem is that my Google Analytics data shows that in the past 30 days, I've only received 6 site visits relating to that search term. I've been ranked #1 for the term this whole time. As the first result on page 1 of Google for this search term, this tells me that either my analytics are way off (I doubt this), or the Google Adwords keyword tool is way off (much more likely).

Has anyone else had problems with this? How much can the keyword tool be trusted? Is there something you'd recommend using over this?

[Steven Carl Kelly]

I explain this and provide a formula for you. Here's a thread on the subject:

Conflicting methods of analyzing keyword competition

See that thread for details and help.