Changed Clickbank ID. Sales Resumed Same Day. I am Now a Believer.

[xiaophil]

I used to be one of the biggest skeptics.

Even generating statistical models to explain erratic sales.

Now six weeks of continuing traffic and hops - but zero sales.

Statistically possible but very unlikely.

So, why not change the ID? No harm. It will only take a minute.

Changed the ID at 9am yesterday.

Made a sale at 3pm yesterday.

Problem with the previous ID?

What are the odds otherwise? Infintesimal?

Mixed emotions now. On one hand feeling a bit ripped, but on the other - happy that sales have resumed.

Enough said.

[Lutz80]

did you change your id through clickbank or did you use a cloaker?

[mikeyman120]

Wait a second here! Are you suggesting that the Bank jacked you or what!

Mike

[sf_Imtiaz]

I am seeing a lot of people complaining about it these days but it seems unlikely that clickbank would do something like this...

[xiaophil]

Originally Posted by Lutz80

did you change your id through clickbank or did you use a cloaker?

I use a simple htaccess redirect.
I changed oldid.vendor.hop.clickbank.net to newid.vendor.hop.clickbank.net

Originally Posted by mikeyman120

Wait a second here! Are you suggesting that the Bank jacked you or what!

I am telling you what happened, and how I feel about it. Nothing more.

Originally Posted by scarfeet

I am seeing a lot of people complaining about it these days but it seems unlikely that they would do something like this...

I agree, hence almost two months of arguing for them.

***

I had better rush out and buy a lottery ticket, whilst avoiding thunderstorms.

[RGS54]

Willing to try too... So how did you change your ID??

[Stay At Home Mum]

Yes i would like to know how you changed your ID too ...

[xiaophil]

Originally Posted by RGS54

Willing to try too... So how did you change your ID??

Originally Posted by Stay At Home Mum

Yes i would like to know how you changed your ID too ...

I created another account with a new affiliate ID, and then changed the hoplink redirect to point to the new affiliate ID, as described above.

[naughtyneo]

You can't conclude with just one sale. You could get lucky.
You said you had no sales for 6 weeks. So wait for another 6 weeks with new id or compare that many number hops with the new id. If you see a significant difference then you know CB screwed you.
-Neo

[xiaophil]

Originally Posted by naughtyneo

You can't conclude with just one sale... If you see a significant difference then you know CB screwed you.
-Neo

I never drew any conclusions.

And I am certainly not suggesting foul play.

All I am saying is that it is one hell of a coincidence.

[Harvey Segal]

Originally Posted by xiaophil

All I am saying is that it is one hell of a coincidence.

Here is another explanation:
Why you MUST change your Clickbank ID to restart sales


Harvey

[xiaophil]

Harvey,

Thanks for that. People who are not yet used to your humor may wish to begin with your excellent "people with glasses parody".

You may remember that I supported and expanded on your post, arguing how apparently erratic sales figures can be explained using probabilities.

I do not consider myself a statistical expert.

In fact, apart from a final-year quantum mechanics exam, I have hardly touched statistics since leaving a job doing six-sigma and other improvement work for a large aerospace company, and that was many years ago.

I am well aware of the hazards of attempting to gain an intuitive understanding of a stochastic process, and prefer a measured scientific approach based upon empirical data.

Before the "dry spell" there was not so much data to work with, but it was enough to establish a conversion rate with a fair degree of certainty.

During the "dry spell" the (increased) traffic was coming from the same source, with the same keywords, and had the same click through rate - just no registered sales.

Almost two months of nothing and then six hours after changing the ID, a sale.

The probability beggars belief.

But yes Harvey, upon reflection I am willing to write it off as "people wearing glasses" until I check my statistical models and methods, and perhaps run them past a specialist or two for validation.

Best Regards,

[xiaophil]

Just checked the account. Another sale.

That's actually the first time I have had sales on consecutive days.

Anyone care to comment? Harvey?

And please no more "Oh you will need more samples than that before you can draw a conclusion"

[sbucciarel]

That's it ... I'm creating a new account.

[Mark Brian]

Hmmm... okay i'll jump in to this: How old was your old account?

[oZestretch]

Ripple->Tsunami
Caterpillar->Butterfly
TimePlusEffort->Success

[JWB]

How many Clickbank accounts can you have? And if you have a lot of
articles out there that point to your old ID...when you change to a new ID..wont you lose any sales form traffic going to your old ID as a result of the articles?

[LB]

That's actually the first time I have had sales on consecutive days.

This tells me you're working with way too little data to draw a conclusion. I'm not saying you're wrong, but I have yet to see someone who makes a lot of sales daily produce evidence of this theory.

[Floyd Fisher]

I still say it's got something to do with 'cookie crushing software' we all have installed on our machines.

The new id creates a cookie with a checksum dupes the crusher, until the powers that be (the fools who write the software) figure out the checksum of the new cookie, and voila, cookies crushed again.

I say we all donate $10 to either Brian Kindsvater or Bob Silber (whoever wants the case can have it) who can then launch a restraint of trade lawsuit against one of these antispyware companies. The discovery process can then be used to give us the real score on this issue by giving us a back stage look at this stuff.

[xiaophil]

Originally Posted by xiaophil

And please no more "Oh you will need more samples than that before you can draw a conclusion"

Originally Posted by LB

This tells me you're working with way too little data to draw a conclusion.

[Sigh]

1) There is plenty of data - it just doesn't fit my model. Broken model? Maybe. like I said I'm no expert.

2) Correlation doesn't prove causality (i.e just because B happened after A doesn't mean A caused B) but the coincidence in this case is remarkable.

3) Once again I am not drawing any conclusions. Merely sharing my particular experience and looking for a scientific explanation. I have no beef with Clickbank and am not accusing anyone of anything.

[Harvey Segal]

You know - I could kick myself.

For failing to spot an opportunity.

Ok folks, if you seriously believe that changing your
ClickBank id will make your sales return then go ahead and
do it - and report back.

I expect one in a hundred to report back triumphantly, the
other 99 will be too embarrassed to say it was a complete
waste of time and will now be stuck with a new account which
won't pay out until it meets the Customer Distribution
Requirement - and will probably go dormant.

If you want to know how to handle THAT problem get my book
ClickBank for Newbies (it's free, see sig file).

Now why didn't I think of that before.

Harvey


.

[pearsonbrown]

Statistically the idea of getting two sales in two days after days without is not "remarkable" at all. I don't get many sales a week but they do tend to occur in bunches.

I'm not saying that this technique is nonsense but it is unproven. People who try it and get results are more likely to post here than people who get no results.

Pearson

[Andy]

Thanks for your report Phil,

Maybe the new ID did the trick, maybe it didn't but when this first happened to me - YEARS ago - I kinda felt like I was just stooopid.

What did I do wrong? Gee, I dunno. I set up some ppc ads, directly linked them to a CB product and got sales. Then it stopped. Cold. Same ppc campaign. Same sales page. The vendor, another warrior, said he hadn't noticed any sales drop. But I never got back on track after that. So you tell me... what did I do wrong?

Wish I'd a thought to try another ID.

God bless,

Andy

[xiaophil]

Originally Posted by pearsonbrown

Statistically the idea of getting two sales in two days after days without is not "remarkable" at all.

Agreed. That was not my point.

What is statistically remarkable is having an established conversion rate and regular sales, followed by almost two months of traffic with a constant click-through rate but no sales whatsoever, and then have a sale registered six hours after changing the ID.

That is a remarkable coincidence.

I used to laugh when people talked about this - self-deluded and statistically ignorant, kidding themselves because they don't understand probabilities.

Then just the other night I thought "what the hell" and gave it a shot. And hours later I have made multiple sales.

And once again I am not implying anything or forming any conclusions. In my books what happened could very well be a coincidence.

People are regularly struck by lightning, or win the lottery. These things are possible and do happen.

I am merely sharing an interesting experience, and would actually prefer to hear more from the statisticians out there than the conspiracy theorists.