ClickBank Marketplace field: %refd

[Harvey Segal]

There's a field in the ClickBank Marketplace (%refd), often
mistaken for percentage of refunds, which stands for the

"Fraction of vendor's total sales that are referred by affiliates"

I'm wondering if and how affiliates use this information in deciding
whether to promote a product.

Harvey

[Steven Wagenheim]

Harvey, the field, if a high % at least shows that a good number of sales
are coming from efforts outside the merchants. However, a low number
doesn't necessarily mean that the product is hard to sell. It could be a new
product that hasn't caught on yet.

I don't know how other affiliates look at it but I put very little stock in it.

I essentially focus on $ per sale and gravity.

I want to be paid enough for my efforts. I won't promote a product that's
going to pay me a $7 commission. It's just not worth my time.

And as far as gravity, a low one won't turn me off but a high one will. I don't
want to go banging heads with 300 people when I can sell other products
with less competition much easier as long as I presell it correctly.

[Alexa Smith]

Originally Posted by Harvey.Segal

I'm wondering if and how affiliates use this information in deciding whether to promote a product.

I don't think I've ever used it in deciding that. I'm not sure I'd know how to. Possibly a very low figure might make me "wonder" but it hasn't come up for me, and if it did, I'd ask about it here, hoping you would reply.

Originally Posted by Steven Wagenheim

I want to be paid enough for my efforts. I won't promote a product that's going to pay me a $7 commission. It's just not worth my time.

And as far as gravity, a low one won't turn me off but a high one will.

Ditto, here.

[Stefan Vee]

One should realize that many vendors play the affiliate game as well and do promote their own products through a second cb-nickname. So a high %refd doesn't mean that much to me.
I always look at the popularity of a product (clickbank's default listing) and the sales page. Just like Steven, My attention goes to "lower gravity"/"higher $/sale" products.

[Harvey Segal]

Originally Posted by Steven Wagenheim

Harvey, the field, if a high % at least shows that a good number of sales are coming from efforts outside the merchants.

And the question is how is that information useful to us.

And doesn't gravity give us that sort of information.

Harvey

[winebuddy]

it could be that the publisher is absoutely raking in cash and he is his own biggest salesperson. When you do the default search, it ranks for "popularity".

So if it's the most populr product in the catagorey but not the highest gravity, this could be telling you that it is an "undiscovered" gem and could sell very well.

Gravity just indicates how many different affiliates have sold the product in the last 8 weeks - from what I understand. And like Steve says - with a Gravity over 300, you are going to have to compete with all those people.

[Alexa Smith]

Originally Posted by Harvey.Segal

And the question is how is that information useful to us.

Not useful to me (maybe because I don't know enough about how to interpret it and whether its interpretation varies from niche to niche, etc.)

Originally Posted by Harvey.Segal

And doesn't gravity give us that sort of information.

It doesn't give me that sort of information (whatever sort we're talking about!). Different point altogether, but I'd much rather see the sales-page conversion-rate displayed (as at click2sell.eu).

[Steven Wagenheim]

Originally Posted by Harvey.Segal

And the question is how is that information useful to us.

And doesn't gravity give us that sort of information.

Harvey

Actually Harvey, no, gravity doesn't give you that same info.

Take these two scenarios and you'll understand why.

Scenario 1

Product X has a gravity of 100, meaning in the last 90 days (I think) 100
affiliates have made at least 1 sale.

Now, examining the actual raw numbers (if we could do this) we find out
that those 100 affiliates only made 200 sales, meaning an average of 2
sales a piece. This is actually very common for very popular products
because there is so much competition and the average affiliate doesn't
do that well. We know that most affiliates, in fact, do poorly.

Now, we also find out that during that time, the product creator sold
200 units on his own, meaning that the % refrd is actually 50% even
though the gravity is so high.

Scenario 2

Product Y has a gravity of 30. But because of the less competition,
those 30 affiliates sell an average of 10 units each and sell 300 a month
In that same month, the product creator who is a lazy slob doesn't do
any promotion seeing that his affiliates do so well and only sells 30 units

So the % refrd is 90% even though the gravity is so much lower than
the one for product X.

Point is, there really is no correlation between gravity and % refrd
because if a merchant doesn't promote then most, if not all of his sales,
will come from affiliates.

Hope this clears that up.

[Steven Wagenheim]

Sorry, didn't answer the question about how the info is useful.

This is very subjective and just my opinion.

Gravity - If it's high, I don't want any part of the product. I have no way
of knowing if the 300 affiliates are making 10 sales a month or 1. And since
I can't know that, I don't want to take the chance that I'll be promoting a
product that will be hard to get my share of the pie from.

A low gravity, on the other hand, doesn't necessarily mean the product
won't sell. It may be new. Maybe the merchant isn't recruiting affiliates.
Remember, just listing your product in the marketplace means nothing. There
are too many out there and the average affiliate will check page 1, maybe
page 2, and that's it. If you're not there, you can forget about affiliates
just finding you.

Bottom line on gravity. High is important to my choice, as in won't promote.
Low can go either way depending on how I feel about the sales page.


% Referred - By itself, it means nothing to me. If a high % referred is
combined with a low gravity then yes, I will jump on it because that gives
me hope that it isn't too hard to sell. Of course if the gravity is 1 and the
% referred is 100%, then that means the guy has 1 affiliate making all his
sales which is pretty meaningless. So it depends on what the numbers are.

However if a high % referred is combined with a high gravity, then I will
definitely stay away from it.

Bottom line on % referred. It's not as important to me as gravity and by
itself won't influence my decision.

As I said in my original post, $ per sale and gravity are the main
determining factors for me.

[Harvey Segal]

Originally Posted by winebuddy

it could be that the publisher is absoutely raking in cash and he is his own biggest salesperson. When you do the default search, it ranks for "popularity".

So if it's the most populr product in the catagorey but not the highest gravity, this could be telling you that it is an "undiscovered" gem and could sell very well.

I can't see how it would rank high as rankings are based on affiliate sales.

Originally Posted by Alexa Smith

Not useful to me (maybe because I don't know enough about how to interpret it and whether its interpretation varies from niche to niche, etc.)

Yes - that's my point. Just how do you interpret it ?

Originally Posted by Steven Wagenheim

Actually Harvey, no, gravity doesn't give you that same info.

Take these two scenarios and you'll understand why.

Steve, thank you for the scenarios however you may have misunderstood my reply.

I was not saying that gravity and %refd give the same information.

You said that a 'high %refd shows that a good number of sales
are coming from efforts outside the merchant'.

So I was saying that a 'good number' of affiliate sales
would be reflected in a high gravity.

In fact it may be that your statement is not really correct.
You mean a good proportion of sales not a good number.


Harvey

PS I'm writing this at 5.00am so I hope my logic is correct.

[Martin.Avis]

The principle of what Steven said regarding the interpretation of gravity is correct, however, the real figures are likely to be even more extreme than he suggests.

ClickBank's own definition of gravity is this: Gravity: Number of distinct affiliates who earned a commission by referring a paying customer to the vendor's products. This is a weighted sum and not an actual total. For each affiliate paid in the last 8 weeks we add an amount between 0.1 and 1.0 to the total. The more recent the last referral, the higher the value added.

So, to use Steven's example of a gravity of 300, it doesn't mean that 300 affiliates made sales because some of those sales, if made 8 weeks ago, will only 'score' 0.1.

Thus, as an extreme (and unlikely) example, if a vendor had run a coordinated affiliate launch 8 weeks ago, but none of those affiliates had made any sales since, a gravity of 300 could, in theory, represent the efforts of 3000 affiliates. And, of course, a week later it would drop to zero.

As to Harvey's original question, I don't see any value or use for the $Refd field because it is too easy to 'game'.

As an example, I could launch a new CB product tomorrow and promote it to my own list, but instead of using my vendor id to promote, I could use one of my affiliate ids. Immediatly, my product would show a %Refd of 100%, but what use would that information be to anyone?

A bigger question is why ClickBank set up a stats system that is 'nearly' useful, but when you delve into it, tells us very little. It is almost as if they wanted to be seen to offer affiliates some stats, but didn't bother to ask anyone what, why or how those stats should be produced.

ClickBank have often said that although they are offering a service to Internet marketers, they are not themselves Internet marketers. A lot of the confusions and misunderstandings we so often see being voiced here on the WF stem directly from that simple fact.

Perhaps we should be telling ClickBank exactly what stats we would like to see (within reason - after all, they have the privacy of vendors to consider too as well as complex regulatory law to contend with). I have found them to be quite amenable to suggestions, provided those suggestions are explained to them in ways that non-Internet marketers can understand.

Martin

[Harvey Segal]

Originally Posted by Martin.Avis

So, to use Steven's example of a gravity of 300, it doesn't mean that 300 affiliates made sales because some of those sales, if made 8 weeks ago, will only 'score' 0.1.

Martin

This is debatable and I have seen conflicting versions.
Are the weighted increments added to a base score of 0 or 1?

Which means does gravity of 300 mean there are a minimum of 300 or
a maximum of 300 affiliates.

Originally Posted by Martin.Avis

Perhaps we should be telling ClickBank exactly what stats we would like to see (within reason - after all, they have the privacy of vendors to consider too as well as complex regulatory law to contend with). I have found them to be quite amenable to suggestions, provided those suggestions are explained to them in ways that non-Internet marketers can understand.

I agree.

The only reason to provide stats in the Marketplace is for
the benefit of affiliates so it should be clear exactly how
to interpret them.

Harvey

[JayXtreme]

None of the stats that Clickbank supply have any effect on my promotional decisions...

It's the product for me, every single time.

I pick the products that fit my niche(s), anything else I can work around. Refund rates, referred, gravity... means nothing to me.

Peace

Jay

[Alexa Smith]

Originally Posted by Harvey.Segal

does gravity of 300 mean there are a minimum of 300 or a maximum of 300 affiliates.

Clearly there are a minimum of 300 affiliates.

There might (in theory only, of course!) be 3,000 if all the sales happened, coincidentally, to be made on the same day about 8 weeks ago and they're scoring 0.1 each.

All that can be said with complete certainty is:-

1. The number of affiliates is 300 - 3,000 and

2. If the sales have been pretty steady throughout the 8 weeks, making the average gravity value around 0.5, as one might expect in the absence of specific reasons not to expect it (like the product not yet being 8 weeks old), then there are about 600 active affiliates. Not that that's very helpful or even meaningful information on its own, anyway!

(In other words, most of the time, the number of active affiliates is probably going to be somewhere around double the gravity figure. If anyone cares.)

Originally Posted by Harvey.Segal

The only reason to provide stats in the Marketplace is for the benefit of affiliates so it should be clear exactly how to interpret them.

I agree. But very clearly it isn't, because you need only look in forums - including in your own, I'd guess? - to see that most affiliates misunderstand "gravity".

Part of the reason it's so unclear how to interpret them is that Clickbank are providing the wrong information. What affiliates want to know includes the overall conversion-rate and the sales numbers. Simple. And surely unarguable, I'd think? And if you can get Clickbank to listen to that, then you're a better man than I. (Which, now I come to think of it, you are.)

[Harvey Segal]

Originally Posted by Alexa Smith

What affiliates want to know includes the overall conversion-rate and the sales numbers. Simple. And surely unarguable, I'd think?

Is that a good idea ?

It can just take one affiliate sending 10,000 untargetted hops from a traffic
site to ruin a vendor's published conversion rate.

[Steven Wagenheim]

Originally Posted by Harvey.Segal

Is that a good idea ?

It can just take one affiliate sending 10,000 untargetted hops from a traffic
site to ruin a vendor's published conversion rate.

Harvey is dead right on this. Traffic from TEs, FFA sites, safelists and a
number of other places can really screw up conversion IF the affiliate doesn't
know how to effectively use those sources.

For example, for TEs, instead of using your affiliate link for your surf page,
use an opt in page. Build a list of qualified buyers and THEN within your
AR series, send them to the sales page. It will be a much more accurate
measure than just people hitting that sales page because they're forced to
view it for 15 to 30 seconds, or whatever.

Same with FFA sites and safelists. Build a list of subscribers.

But since people don't do that, conversion stats, especially in the MMO
niche, can be a total disaster. If you think I'm kidding, head on over to
a top TE and see how many rotations you'll see of the top Clickbank
product in the MMO category.

That'll screw up anybody's conversion rate.

[Alexa Smith]

Originally Posted by Harvey.Segal

Is that a good idea ?

It can just take one affiliate sending 10,000 untargetted hops from a traffic
site to ruin a vendor's published conversion rate.

Thank you, Harvey: I hadn't thought of that. But can you tell me why it's a problem for Clickbank to provide this information when Click2Sell make it available for affiliates? Why doesn't the same reason apply also to them?

And why shouldn't they just disclose the number of sales? That potential problem doesn't relate to this information, does it?