Forex people: are we going to see an end to the US dollar crash?

[zapseo]

Originally Posted by seasoned

You're hopefully right, but....



************WRONG*************!!!!!! That was NEVER true! The Swiss Franc is based on GOLD! Great Britain ORIGINALLY probably had a proper currency, but was part of a group called the "G7". But what WAS the G7 is now, LUDICROUSLY, called the G8! It now "consists" of France, United States, United Kingdom, Russia, Germany, Japan, Italy, and Canada. So WHY do I say LUDICROUSLY? WHY do I put "consists" in quotes? Well, what do Italy, France, Germany, and the UK have in common? They ALL have the EURO! SO, in the spirit of the G7, it is NOT the G8, but the G5!

PART of their goal was to trade the SEVEN currencies to maintain parity. THAT was a driving force in what the dollar was worth. THAT is why currencies didn't stay the same related to one another. And they were/are the ONLY group managing the relationship!

Steve

Okay, I must have missed something. I thought it was no longer G8 but G20.

Pretty soon, we'll have the whole UN in there...

[vicone]

I recently read "In A Sunburned Country" by Bill Bryson - it was a fascinating look at Australia. Does the sheer size and the "all by itself" positioning combine to keep you folks out of the ups and downs of economy the rest of the world is experiencing?

Australia is fortunate in having large deposits of iron ore, coal, and other mining products which are in strong demand by overseas growth economies, such as China.

The government gives priority to keeping inflation low and employment at a fairly high level (as high as they can without impacting on inflation).

However, we are subject to major price changes of imported products, such as oil. We also import a lot of manufactured goods, such as motor vehicles, electronics, books and textiles. These are often paid for (by importers) in US dollars, so if the US $ falls that means cheaper prices to Australian buyers.

On the other hand, Australian exports will suffer as the Australian dollar rises because our products will become more expensive to overseas buyers and, if sold in US $, our exporters will receive less.

Tariff barriers were reduced so that relatively inefficient industries which couldn't compete (eg textiles) closed and we imported those products from countries in Asia which had a competitive advantage.

So, overall, our basic situation isn't too bad but we can be hurt by declining revenues from exports.

Economic policies are also reflected in immigration policies. For instance, I recently met a Computer Engineer who migrated here from the UK but his visa was delayed because his university degree (and experience) was in Computer Science. However he was admitted because his wife was a qualified hairdresser (a skill in short supply). Such is life!

Ivan

[parkerli]

I think at this point it is at the level it was last year when the market crashed. Definitly not good... I started shorting the dollar with an inverse US Dollar ETF- somewhat goof gains thus far!

[seasoned]

Originally Posted by zapseo

Okay, I must have missed something. I thought it was no longer G8 but G20.

Pretty soon, we'll have the whole UN in there...

YEAH, for a moment I thought that ALSO! The G20 is described as follows....

Since 1999, the G-20 has contributed to strengthen the international financial architecture and to foster sustainable economic growth and development. The G-20 now has a crucial role in driving forward work between advanced and emerging economies to tackle the international financial and economic crisis, restore worldwide financial stability, lead the international economic recovery and secure a sustainable future for all countries.

Earlier, they said the two were SEPARATE, but NOW it looks like G20 to replace G8 as main economic forum - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) ! There are plans to have the last G8 meeting next year. Oh well, for now, it looks like what I said stands. We'll see next year.


HERE is how wikipedia describes the G8

The Group of Eight (G8, and formerly the G6 or Group of Six and also the G7 or Group of Seven) is a forum, created by France in 1975, for governments of the six richest countries in the world: France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. In 1976, Canada joined the group (thus creating the G7). In becoming the G8, the group added Russia in 1997. In addition, the European Union is represented within the G8, but cannot host or chair.[1]

The "G8" is a group of people representing the money suppliers from 8 countries and they decide what to do by using their collective positions to move the worthless "currency" the way they wish. If they ALL want the dollar to go up, for example, they will buy dollars and such investments with their currency. They may also lower their rates.

Steve

[samstephens]

[quote]I recently read "In A Sunburned Country" by Bill Bryson - it was a fascinating look at Australia. Does the sheer size and the "all by itself" positioning combine to keep you folks out of the ups and downs of economy the rest of the world is experiencing?[quote]

Hi Kay!

I remember reading that when I was in school: "I love a sunburned country, a land of sweeping plains"

...and something about dirt, I think

Isolation does tend to make things a lot different here, from what I understand. Ivan obviously knows a lot more about it than I do, but geographically speaking, our closet trading partners are Asia and the Pacific region.

We do a lot of trade with China, but I think there's a bit of a love/hate thing going between our governments.

Ivan is right about the currency: I have friends who own a music shop, and they're having a cheaper line of guitars made in China, but they pay in USD.

It's an interesting mix

cheers
Sam

[samstephens]

The "G8" is a group of people representing the money suppliers from 8 countries and they decide what to do by using their collective positions to move the worthless "currency" the way they wish. If they ALL want the dollar to go up, for example, they will buy dollars and such investments with their currency. They may also lower their rates.

That almost sounds like a bizzare economics version of price fixing, and kind of sounds illegal.

It's amazing what happens behind the scenes!

cheers
Sam

[seasoned]

Originally Posted by samstephens

That almost sounds like a bizzare economics version of price fixing, and kind of sounds illegal.

It's amazing what happens behind the scenes!

cheers
Sam

YEAH, it IS price fixing! HEY, what do you expect when the *****ONLY***** REAL thing behind a currency is the value of its work and products? At least GOLD is tangible and has worth. If the US produced nothing that another country wanted, the G8 would be the ONLY thing keeping its currency afloat. Of course, the Euro, Rouble, canadian dollar, etc... are the SAME way.

Let's face it! Australians DON'T want US dollars! They take them ONLY because they can buy US goods, or swap them with someone ELSE that wants to buy US goods. Granted, the "good" may be a vacation in hawaii, or california, etc... but you get my drift.

When you hear about the G8 propping up the dollar... +g8 +dollar - Google Search or the feds fund rate Federal funds rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia THIS is what they are talking about. Just a few tricks to keep the federal reserve system "working". 8-/

BTW the BAD news is that the dollar went down against the euro again. The GOOD news is it HAS been worse:

Average (473 days): 0.72335
High: 0.81100
Low: 0.62350

CURRENT: 10/16/2009 0.66980

VARIES about (23.1196)

Bear in mind that ORIGINALLY, they wanted this number to be 1!!!!! A euro costs us 1.49298! That is about as much as the pound was some time ago.

As for the british pound?

Average (473 days): 0.62356
High: 0.74050
Low: 0.49580

CURRENT: 10/16/2009 0.61910

VARIES about (33.0452)

So the british pound only costs 1.61525!

Aw what the heck, HERE is the australian dollar!

Average (473 days): 1.32173
High: 1.66300
Low: 1.01510

CURRENT: 10/16/2009 1.0880

VARIES about (38.9597%)

So the australian dollar costs about .91912 The average since about july of last year should be about 0.75658. That IS about a 17.684% drop, all things being equal.

OH YEAH, I have been showing interbank rates. They should show relative strength against any other rate pretty clearly, but the price may vary according to market, and premiums. But I am sure you are aware of all that. These should be the wholesale rates BANKS deal with.

Let's put this in perspective with GOLD


Average (464 days): 0.00113
High: 0.00143 (about $6990.30)
Low: 0.00093 (about $1075.27)

CURRENT: 10/16/2009 0.00095(about $1052.63)

VARIES: (34.9650%)

Steve