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#1 |
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DLGuard.com
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Hi forex people!
Just curious as to people's opinions: the US dollar value is shedding cents each day - it's now equal to 91.5 AUD. Does anyone think we're going to see a slowing of the fall, or a plateau, or even better, a strengthening anytime soon? It seems to be in quite a fast drop. cheers Sam |
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#2 |
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I dont know but I have been turning all my cash into gold and silver
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#3 |
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HyperActive Warrior
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I'd imagine that we will see a bottom to the US dollar soon. Every other country's value is based on it, so if it falls everyone's will fall.
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#4 |
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Advanced Warrior
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Not anytime soon, unfortunately it's estimated that the US/AUD will be dollar for dollar by mid next year and at this rate it looks possible that's going to happen.
That's why gold's off the charts, people feel it's a more stable investment and based upon something more tangible with less tendency to fluctuate as quickly as currencies. |
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#5 |
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im glad i got out of forex last year, way to confusing.
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#6 |
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HyperActive Warrior
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AUD is wrong example...it is a currency related with Gold so as gold goes up so does AUD.
As a guy with 12y of experience(7 on forex) I will tell you this: NOBODY KNOWS THAT ![]() Fundamentally dollar is s**** for many reasons...Americans take a lot of debs etc, Obama is nationalising private companies. But USA is a too big player and nobody will dare to kill dollar.(maybe China- but not sooner than 10years from now). In short time frame (1-2) years dollar should rebound. But there are many problems which any unknown day may bring more problems for dollar. |
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#7 | |
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Quote:
The Australian dollar hasn't been backed by a gold standard for many years. The AUD floats freely in the currency market. Ivan. | |
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#8 |
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HyperActive Warrior
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Everyone knows (if you know anything about Smith, Ricardo, etc, etc) that dollars, gold, etc are practically worthless.
That being said, the dollar is hyper inflated, but that is good for America because that allows us to consume a ton of things, while in return we give China our worthless money. Unfortunately they then by our companies =(. |
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#9 |
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Christmas Rocker
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Sam,
All the money market people (not forex traders - different animals) I've been reading have been saying the same thing. 1. The only way to reduce America's debt burden is to "help" the dollar crash. If you read Bernanke's thoughts on the Great Depression and what he thought worked/didn't work, you'll see he thinks a massive dollar devaluation is the only way to go. It's a dangerous path because if the dollar falls too much foreigners will stop financing government debt and interest rates will have to rise, probably killing off any recovery for years. 2. The G20 is now starting to call the tune and the dollar's days as a reserve currency are numbered. 3. Gold and silver are going to hit record highs. If you don't want the hassle of storing precious metals invest in gold ETFs or mining companies. 4. Australia has probably the soundest economy in the world right now. It didn't go into a recession, unemployment has just fallen and your biggest trading partner, China, is still desperate for raw materials. No massive budget deficit and room to manoeuvre with interest rates. And the government giveaway did what it was supposed to do - stimulate the economy, not bail out incompetent banks. The government has indicated that it has a plan for gradually increasing interet rates, which will also attract support for the AUD. 5. Don't bet against the Aussie dollar being worth more than it's US counterpart. It's already risen some 42% since last autumn's low. Martin (Usual FTC-friendly disclaimer: I'm not a Nobel Prize winner for economics and the above should not be construed as financial advice, it's just something I made up this morning while I was having breakfast) |
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#10 | |
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HyperActive Warrior
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Quote:
HaHa...yes I did not mean that it is backed by gold...it is related, sorry if I did not make it clear enough. The more gold is rising the more AUD gains...Australia is a place where lot of gold is taken from. That is part of 'intermarket' analysis.
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#11 | |
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HyperActive Warrior
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Quote:
That is scary scenario but this is the fact - China has had so much money that they invested it in US...your economy exists in some way thanks to it. If this collaps some day they will survive as they need less money to live - in America people got used to life on high level so it will hurt you more.I hope it will never happen as this would hurt all. | |
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#12 | ||
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wodda u lookin' @
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Quote:
Except of course if you're getting paid in US$. That makes the amount of Aussies you get after conversion less than it was. On the other side of the coin (pun intended), any purchases for goods/services in US$ are comparatively cheap for us. Swings and roundabouts, swings and roundabouts. I know some insiders in the foreign exchange industry (not traders), and they reckon the US$ is on it's last legs, literally. So buy goods/services in US$, but get paid in euros, pounds, aussies, goats, chickens, anything other than greenbacks. And yeah, get your hands on some gold, silver, platinum, other prescious metals. This can be done indirectly in Oz by buying shares in miners who deal in these metals. But greenbacks, nah, wouldn't touch them at this stage. Nor any time in the near future either. Oblig FTC Disclaimer: I am not an investment/curency advisor, so any advice from me should be regarded as not worth the paper it's printed on, but still more valuable than the US$ is going to be worth. Quote:
Thiose who think the US$ will always be "the currency against which all others are measured", need to realise that before WWII, the "world" currency was the pound sterling. The British Empire lasted from the defeat of the Spanish Armada, through to the first half of the 20th century. The Ameican "empire" (for that is what it is) lasted 60-70 years. The Chinese are already starting to consider dumping the US$, and buying their goods in euros, or even good old fashioned gold/silver/commodities. To see why the US$ is all but doomed, watch "Zeitgeist". Fractional Reserve Banking is the culprit that is destroying America. More info here: "US Dollar In Strong Long Term Downward Trend". | ||
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There are better ways than my avatar is using to prevent identity theft - better shred than read
Last edited by whateverpedia; 10-14-2009 at 05:31 AM. Reason: update |
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#13 |
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Active Warrior
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(no money advice here)
Just want to shout out the fellow Aussie IM'ers on this thread. Soon we might be calculating the exchange deficits in our CB payouts! |
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#14 |
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DLGuard.com
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DLGuard v4.5 Now Released!
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#15 | |
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DLGuard.com
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Quote:
So don't worry, I'm still as patriotic as they come, but I earn more in USD than I spend in USD, so it's starting to hurt. Since I'm selling through Clickbank, I don't really have much of a choice in regard to which currency I sell in. I banked a Clickbank cheque a few days ago, and the lady behind the counter (which I know well) said "Ooh, you're not going to like it!" If we see an Aussie dollar stronger than the US (which was apparently the case twenty or thirty years ago?), I'm either going to have to raise prices or sell my body on the streets. ...though I don't think that second choice will nett me much profit. cheers Sam | |
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#16 |
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wodda u lookin' @
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There are better ways than my avatar is using to prevent identity theft - better shred than read
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#17 | |
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wodda u lookin' @
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Quote:
Yeah, CB is a bit depressing. All my revenue at the moment is Adsense which I have paid in Aussies. BTW Sam, were you aware that you can have CB payments made directly to your bank a/c? Lot better than waiting half an hour for the bank teller to fill out all the paperwork involved with depositing a foreign cheque? Don't know which bank you're with, but mine used to charge me $15 per cheque to deposit them. 17 different CB accounts, 17 cheques, $285 to the bank. ![]() There are still fees to be paid (obviously), but they are still cheaper than the "deposit" fee. Steve (real name) | |
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There are better ways than my avatar is using to prevent identity theft - better shred than read
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#18 |
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Advanced Warrior
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This is somewhat off topic...
But does anyone know if you can get paid through Clickbank through Euros? I know a few CPA networks have that option and i'm thinking it may be time to switch. No one seems to have much faith - anywhere you go - in the US dollar. Zach |
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#19 |
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HyperActive Warrior
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Canadian dollar is pushing to parity. Might be there in a few weeks. I'm sitting on a check right now waiting for the US Dollar at least strengthen a few pennies. Right now with the bank's exhange rate it's practically parity.
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#20 |
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HyperActive Warrior
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Sam's email gave me a very different spin on this thread. I looked at my product (sold in USD) and then went to Yahoo Finance to check out the graph of AUD/USD. Wow. What a rally in the last few months. So all of the Aussie leads I've generated previously thought my course was too expensive.
I've just done an email, using aweber, ONLY to Australian IP addresses (easy to do) and simply pointed out that my program now costs way less than before. We'll see what happens. But isn't it interesting to know that you can start to send out geographically segmented emails based upon currency moves. See some country who's currency had a massive fall? Tell them you are giving them a discount and send them to a special page that you'll take down after "x" days. See a country who's currency went up a massive amount? Point out how cheap your product has become. We can use currency to our advantage. |
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#21 |
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Self-Unemployed
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Be careful with gold. No one even knows how much there is. China alone may have double or triple the amount they claim and India has easily as much gold not recorded as there is in the rest of the world combined in the form of religious icons. So if China ever invaded India, (and who could stop her?) and melted down all the religious gold icons, gold values would drop in half.
Gold is very much like diamonds. De beers created an artricial shortage of them in the late 1800's and that perceived value lasts to this day. If they ever opened the vaults, diamonds would be worth little more than quartz. But that is a whole 'nother story lol |
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#22 | |
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Quote:
There are excellent estimates as to how much gold has ever been mined and it is assumed that most is still around - somewhere - and it's taken into account. Diamonds can now essentially be manufactured. Hasn't happened with gold and I don't think it ever will. PCRoger. | |
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#23 |
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wodda u lookin' @
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Well, probably India (a nuclear power with over a billion people) could stop, or at least make it very difficult for China to invade India.
Russia wouldn't be too impressed by China's move either. Pakistan would join in on China's side, and there you have it 4 nuclear powers going at it hammer and tongs. Armageddon anyone? |
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There are better ways than my avatar is using to prevent identity theft - better shred than read
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#24 |
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Self-Unemployed
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India's billion are men, women and children
China could subscript an army of men (15-55) of almost that many in 20 years or so. Assuming that no one is stupid enough to use nukes, no one could stop China. In 1949, Mao Tse Tung outlined his world domination plan openly. It was a 100 yr plan. It included the 'one child per family' policy in order to create half a billion or more Chinese males with no outlet of testosterone except war. I also included gaining control of the Venezuela sand oil fields and Canada's Athabasca tar fields. (which they now own 31+% of). It relied on the shortage of easy liquid oil in the mid-east (due to run out at present use around 2040) The plan called for them to invade India, grab thier gold, invade the Middle East and grab the last of the easy liquid oil reserves. They would then take Africa for their oil reserves & gold that have been greatly under utilized (except just recently with China buying most of the oil companies in Africa. They are basically 'colonizing' Africa at this point. Due to resentment at past Western policies in Africa, they operate pretty much as they please today.) Then absorb Europe and Russia. The 'conspiracy' theory is we invaded Iraq not to depose Saddam or because Bush was mad at him for trying to kill his daddy, but that after taking India, the only over land pathway to the Mid-East is between the Himalayas and the Mediterranean and the bottleneck is Iraq and Iran. That would help explain why the US made permanent concrete military runways at the 1st posts it set up instead of using the roll out metal grate ones. They knew they were going to be there a while. They US thinks it's only chance to stop China is that bottle neck. It assumes transporting that many men by sea or air to get around a blockade will be impossible to do. (The hard part will be supply lines, but the current thinking is they have no ideology that prevents them from instituting cannibalism to help reduce the items needed to be transported to support such a move.) :O Don't you love conspiracy theories? |
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#25 | |
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Acts 16:31
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Quote:
The dollar is headed way down as a result of all of the mad tendency toward printing off dollars without any real plan to deal with the defecit. Can anyone say, "Bananna Republic?" | |
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#26 |
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Hamster King
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I'm changing my order buttons. Soon, all my products will be priced in Pukka Shells. I'm just consulting with PayPal on how to slip the shells into the front of a computer.
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#27 |
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No one knows where US$ is going. Forex traders know no better.
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#28 |
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Senior Warrior Member
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I think we will soon see the end of the dollar.
When the morons in the treasury are advocating it to a certain extent, it damn well seems like the writings on the wall. |
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#29 | |||
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DLGuard.com
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Hi Martin,
Quote:
This sort of stuff facinates me, but I'm still a bit of a newbie when it comes to things like that. Quote:
Quote:
cheers Sam | |||
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DLGuard v4.5 Now Released!
Automatic Aweber signups (co-developed with Aweber - don't get your account banned!) Click2Sell integration Mal's E-Commerse integration ...and much more! |
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#30 | |
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Quote:
Ivan | |
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#31 |
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Senior Warrior Member
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Sam got Foxtel? They regularly screen a movie called I.O.U.S.A. Interesting movie explains the US debt and dollar devaluation. The USA owes 50T or 180k per person!
Andrew |
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#32 | |
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Marketing Pro
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Quote:
Oh man that is ridiculous... Goodbye US dollar then? I MISS THE DAYS WHEN THE AUSSIE DOLLAR WAS 56 CENTS TO THE US DOLLAR... It was like making nearly 50% more income for doing nothing ![]() Please US dollar... Go back up! Josiah
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#33 | |
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Quote:
As the rate is now about .92c, we receive 100/92 = $109 which is 82% (109/133) of what was received when the exchange rate was at the 75c mark. Understandably, Aussie internet marketers who are paid in US dollars (most of us) favor a strong US currency. A stronger US dollar can be aided by a higher US interest rate which would increase demand for the US dollar as money flowed into the country to take advantage of the higher rates. The downside is that this makes goods, and mortgages, more expensive in the US, dampens consumer demand and impacts on jobs. Politically, I'd expect a weaker currency, which could boost the American economy and would be more appealing to the Administration than increasing interest rates, which would support the currency exchange rate but have a negative effect on the economy. Ivan | |
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#34 | ||
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wodda u lookin' @
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Quote:
Glory days indeed. More than $AU2 for every $US. Quote:
If Paypal get back to you can you let us know how to do it, so I can do the same thing with the goats/chickens I mentioned above. | ||
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There are better ways than my avatar is using to prevent identity theft - better shred than read
Last edited by whateverpedia; 10-14-2009 at 09:39 PM. Reason: dyslexia |
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#35 | |
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Hamster King
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Quote:
Yup! Just last year, I was getting 130 Yen for every dollar. Now it's just under 90 Yen. That's a big loss every time I transfer cash into my bank here. | |
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#36 |
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Advanced Warrior
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The NZD was around the 50 cent mark in January and now it's sitting at 71 cents, that's explosive growth, you can see why people are making a killing with trading currencies especially with all the volatility in the markets.
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"I Need A New Signature".
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#37 | |
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DLGuard.com
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Thanks Ivan, that makes sense!
Quote:
).That's interesting, though. So all everyone in America needs to do is chip in $180k, and problem solved! ![]() cheers Sam | |
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#38 |
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Site Flipper's Right Hand
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I don't know about the drop in the US Dollar:AUD -- but I do remember when the AUD slid from about $.80 to about $.60 to the AUD -- and it ALSO did that very quickly. And it was a little after, I think, when the CAD went parity and beyond to the USD.
Live JoyFully! Judy |
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#39 |
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Just to clarify, the current national debt is over 11T, and the remainder is needed to fund government promises. Total 53T.
Clip from the movie: |
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#40 |
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Christmas Rocker
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Sam,
Use your programming knowledge to make this an opportunity. I was thinking along the lines of Chris Thompson. You could add something to DL Guard (or make a standalone script) where you produce the price buttons in local currency based on the dollar price of 6 months ago so you keep your margins and the local buyers don't think they are paying too much. If you look at quite a few big companies their prices in America are much lower than the same thing abroad but you can't buy from the American site unless you are based in the USA. Just an idea to get your teeth into. If you want to learn more about the markets here are a couple of interesting newsletters to subscribe to Uncommon Wisdom ? Extraordinary Insights For Growing Your Wealth (latest headline "The most dramatic declines in the dollar and the most remarkable increase in resources ARE STILL DEAD AHEAD!") Which is a spin off from Money and Markets: Free Investment Email Newsletter Caveat emptor! Bear in mind that these people are marketers, too. Martin |
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#41 | |
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Quote:
) but I'm sure it can be adapted for Pukka Shells.Martin | |
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#42 |
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On the strong AUD.....
I suppose for us aussie marketers, it makes outsourcing, ppc, product creation, and massive upscaling extremely cheap comparatively. Im just getting started in this game, and already it seems cheaper for me to work a crappy job @ $20 per hour and pay to get stuff done rather than to do it myself! |
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#43 | |
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You're hopefully right, but....
Quote:
PART of their goal was to trade the SEVEN currencies to maintain parity. THAT was a driving force in what the dollar was worth. THAT is why currencies didn't stay the same related to one another. And they were/are the ONLY group managing the relationship! Steve | |
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#44 | |
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Steve | |
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#45 |
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wodda u lookin' @
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There are better ways than my avatar is using to prevent identity theft - better shred than read
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#46 |
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50 yen to the Greenback in 2011?
Dollar to Hit 50 Yen, Cease as Reserve, Sumitomo Says (Update1) - Bloomberg.com Gulp! This could mean hamster apocalypse for real... I recall Mr Geithner talking about a "strong dollar" quite recently. Now it seems like the carry trade's done a 180 from the yen to the $. Lord help Japanese exports in 2011. As ever, do your own research. I'm not a financial adviser etc etc |
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#47 |
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OK, I don't know enough about the AUSTRALIAN dollar, so comparisons against IT may not be fair. I decided to check against the EURO! The EURO is with the G8, so either they are practically BRAINDEAD, or they use the SAME method as the dollar, not that I consider THAT much better.
So I will use the EURO because they use the same system, and were SUPPOSED to try to keep the currency 1:1. Of course, they didn't realize how STUPID this system is. OK, first of all, your comments are a LITTLE misleading. It has really only shown a "CONSISTANT" downward trend, SHORT TERM, since 10/13/2009. Of course, the LONG term trend has been DOWN. NOW, for the GOOD news! The last time it was this low was 08/15/2008! By 8/16 it was up to 0.67840! It started a not so obvious climb to it's high of 0.80040 on 11/14. OBVIOUSLY, this is NO guarantee, but it shows you we have been here BEFORE and RECENTLY! AGAIN, australia is PROBABLY different. That doesn't mean THAT much when you compare Australia with everyone else though. I am using the EURO because it is a more even comparison. Steve |
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#48 |
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#49 |
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That's an interesting idea, Martin - I'm considering looking at doing a European aimed site, and selling in Euro's. Just test it out and see how it performs.
Steve, I think the Aussie dollar is a bit different because we haven't been affected greatly by the "World Financial Crisis". Possibly something to do with the fact that we only have five major banks, and so the government didn't have to bail them out. Instead they bailed out some other companies, and then gave everyone cash to buy big screen TV's, and ended up sending us from a 20 billion surplus to a 50 billion deficiet, but such is life, I guess. Either way we seem to have survived fine, and retail sales are up, and so I guess people are seeing this as a reasonably stable investment. So with the declining USD and the rising AUD, it sort of doubles the effect of the rise. Another cent since yesterday, it seems. cheers Sam |
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DLGuard v4.5 Now Released!
Automatic Aweber signups (co-developed with Aweber - don't get your account banned!) Click2Sell integration Mal's E-Commerse integration ...and much more! |
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#50 |
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Sam -
I recently read "In A Sunburned Country" by Bill Bryson - it was a fascinating look at Australia. Does the sheer size and the "all by itself" positioning combine to keep you folks out of the ups and downs of economy the rest of the world is experiencing? kay |
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