Screw the Economy!

[radioray]

Hey gang,

I realize I'm probably "preaching to the choir" with this post, but...

If you're worrying about the economy... don't.

We're marketers. We are the economy.

Case in point: I just finished up a launch for a client where we did $1.2 million in seven days.

My client's business is not in the IM world... it's in real estate. In the middle of our launch, guess what happened? The largest bank failure in US history. Cause of said bank failure? Bad real estate loans.

Now, most people would have freaked out. Our launch certainly came grinding to a halt.

Then we gave it some thought and decided, "What's the real story here? Isn't this a great time to invest in properties -- when prices are plummeting? When you can, as the saying goes, 'buy low'? Of course it is!"

So we just fired up the email marketing machine and kept going... and we crushed it.

In fact, over half our sales came after the bank crashes!

For me, the moral of the story is: as a marketer, you've got the power to create your own economy. Just pay attention to what's going on in your market, respond in a way that helps them and supports your cause at the same time... and the rewards will come.

Now let's go keep the wheels of commerce turning, shall we?

;-)

[JayXtreme]

Originally Posted by radioray

Hey gang,

I realize I'm probably "preaching to the choir" with this post, but...

If you're worrying about the economy... don't.

We're marketers. We are the economy.

Case in point: I just finished up a launch for a client where we did $1.2 million in seven days.

My client's business is not in the IM world... it's in real estate. In the middle of our launch, guess what happened? The largest bank failure in US history. Cause of said bank failure? Bad real estate loans.

Now, most people would have freaked out. Our launch certainly came grinding to a halt.

Then we gave it some thought and decided, "What's the real story here? Isn't this a great time to invest in properties -- when prices are plummeting? When you can, as the saying goes, 'buy low'? Of course it is!"

So we just fired up the email marketing machine and kept going... and we crushed it.

In fact, over half our sales came after the bank crashes!

For me, the moral of the story is: as a marketer, you've got the power to create your own economy. Just pay attention to what's going on in your market, respond in a way that helps them and supports your cause at the same time... and the rewards will come.

Now let's go keep the wheels of commerce turning, shall we?

;-)

Yeeeeeeaaaaaahhhh baby...

It's on like Donkey Kong...

I said similar to my list yesterday... and on my blog..

Two fingers to the economy... if it's tryin to push our back against the wall... then we knock down the damn wall folks...

Peace

Jay

p.s. Abundance rocks..

[IRON_STRONG]

Originally Posted by JayXtreme

Yeeeeeeaaaaaahhhh baby...

It's on like Donkey Kong...

I said similar to my list yesterday... and on my blog..

Two fingers to the economy... if it's tryin to push our back against the wall... then we knock down the damn wall folks...

Peace

Jay

p.s. Abundance rocks..

Now thats my kind of fellow businessman. if more poeple had an attitude like this, the world would be a much better place. couldnt have said it better myself brother...

[dvduval]

I am concerned about how the downturn might affect people that don't have the resources like we do, and do feel we are in a state of change that will have long term effects right now. I think the change will be positive in the long term, but clearly enormous mistakes have been made.

As I look at the numbers on the markets, there are some great opportunities right now, but what we don't know if how deep or how long. It's a great time to buy some asset classes, but you have to be prepared to weather the storm which is just getting started.

[naruq]

When you develop a Prosperity and Success Mindset you will create wealth in any economy! For example, Even in the great depression of 1929 their were people who became millionaires years later who took advantage of opportunities during that time.

[Jeremy123]

That's fine and dandy for now, but the US dollar is going to
be worth nothing eventually, protect yourself and buy other currencies,
or try and do business in another currency.

This crisis is simple: the US has borrowed too much money
from other countries and spent it, and now they can't pay it back.

The FED keeps printing more and more money to give the illusion
that they are helping, but all they are doing is devaluing the dollar.

America is broke, America is all based on debt.

Hyperinflation.

Interviews with Peter Schiff about the economy.

http://www.europac.net/video.asp

[radioray]

In my experience, we tend to get what we focus on.

[-RMH-]

Certainly, let's make lemonade out of lemons. I'm all for that.

As marketers, we are the engine of the economy. We're least resistant to recessions.

On the other hand, let's not be so blinded to ignore what's really happening.

I believe we are witnessing the collapse of the Babylonian economic system.

Dollars may very well become worthless.

Can you say "Amero"? :-)

I think of my perspective as realistic optimism. I'm optimistic that things will work out... and that I can bring value to businesses even during a recession like this.

So individually speaking, I'm not worried.

But there are plenty of people who are struggling. The recession IS happening. Banks ARE failing. The money supply IS growing (inflation = less purchasing power).

Now...

If you study what happened to the Weimar Republic... or what's happened recently in Zimbabwe... then you'll know that hyperinflation is a real problem.

In Zimbabwe: "Inflation rose from an annual rate of 32% in 1998 to an official estimated high of 11,200,000% in July 2008 according to the country's Central Statistical Office,[65] a state of hyperinflation, and the central bank introduced a new 100 billion dollar note." [source: Wikipedia]

Hyperinflation is almost inevitable when a society is built on fiat currency.

To prove the point, here is a picture of a German woman burning money in her stove because it was cheaper than firewood:

Image:Inflation-1923.jpg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Let's not kid ourselves. Even if we are the engine of society, that won't help us if there is a complete economic collapse in the U.S.

At that point, gardening would be a more practical skill than marketing or copywriting.

Ryan Healy

[cypherslock]

Just got off the phone with a friend. Was all set to visit from Toronto. Bus strike, dad away he doesn't drive. So he can't come up. Our friends say they can't come up because its too far. And yet some of our Toronto friends come up repeatedly.

I give this brief story to illustrate the mentality that people on this thread are talking about. You can do anything if you let NOTHING stop you. Gas prices? So what? Long drive? so what! I've driven lots and paid the price and have been happier for it because I got to see people I care about. Economy downturn? Not likely! Take what it is and make something good from it. Just got downsized? Start your own business and be in profit!

I'm a prem. Which means I was born early. In fact I was born in September of 1976 when I was supposed to be born in February of 1977. My heart hadn't developed right. The docs said I wouldn't make it. BUT I DID. Point is, if you believe you WILL achieve it. And in my book anyone that says otherwise, or lets the little things stop them is not someone I want to waste my time on.

Whew, that was a bit more of a rant then I intended. Still, the message is the same. Thanks for listening. Let's all show 'em wrong!

[sparrow]

In this time in history, being able to generate an income has no borders and using the internet is the medium.

Some place, somewhere there is customers, you just have to find what they are buying.

Focus on the prize and open your horizons the opportunities are there.

Ed

[Sami]

Heeeeey Mr Edwards

It is good to see you here. I hope you're well.

It's you ol'pal "Sami from the UK".

Originally Posted by -RMH-

I believe we are witnessing the collapse of the Babylonian economic system.

Ryan ... no way my friend. This is another (hard) lesson for the inexorable rise of modern society, no more, no less.

If you want to take a historical perspective, then observe the entire span and not just the Babylon.

Humanity's progress has never been a stright upward slope. Just like stocks or property it is a zig-zag ... for every few steps forward we take one or two back, learn some hard lessons, dust ourselves down, put precations in place for hte future and firmly march forward.

Originally Posted by -RMH-

Dollars may very well become worthless.

Again that will never happen not in the next hundred years or more until there the US becimes so complacent that it totally decays from within AND there is a credible (non-decaying) alternative for people to turn to.

And that won't happen ... some of the best and brightest human beings live in the US and/or work the US.

Fear not, just do your bit and make YOUR contirbution to progress and don't fall for those who are responsible for the next big setback. And we'll get there.

Sami

[bensettle]

Originally Posted by Sami

some of the best and brightest human beings live in the US and/or work the US.

Sami

That very well may be true... but you won't find them working for the government.

If dollars were actually worth anything anymore, I'd bet you $100 there will be something like an Amero in the future.

Our dollar can only be debased so much and it doesn't look like we're getting back on the gold standard anytime soon...

Ben

[grafxgold]

Duh,

For all the Doomsayers:
If you're so broke why are you paying for internet
service and all the bells and whistles which got you here?

Millions and millions of people are not broke or crying !

There is a market for those that have the mentality to
NOT be a pessimist in their attitude.
Duh again

[radioray]

Ryan,

If there's one thing worse than a pessimist, it's a THINKING pessimist.

Especially one who can WRITE.

But that doesn't make you correct.

;-)

[myob]

Doomsayers seem to come out of the woodwork whenever there is a downturn in the economy. Quit watching TV and go visit the malls. Why are the shopping centers and malls still always so crowded? My business is actually increasing!

[radioray]

You just hit the nail on the head: good news doesn't sell papers (or make for big TV ratings)... that's why they say, "if it bleeds, it leads".

All I'm saying is: we're a group of people who think up IDEAS... turn them into streams of ELECTRONS... and create wealth by doing it. We, of ALL people, should know better than to play the "chicken little" game.

The sky is not falling.

[vorales]

Well it all depends from individual to individual,some might take this financial crisis as an opportunity and some are spectacle about their money in the bank is safe or not?

The oil is playing around in the world as it is around 92$/barrel,Gold is fluctuating,Silver is Down,Copper is down to 5850,zinc is down 1590 ,palm oil is down,i guess almost all the comoddities in the world is down at the moment.as a matter of fact people are scared.

Due to so much fluctuations in the market, the economy of world is in danger also because of the American Financial institutation are collasping.

[nebuer]

This is definately the best time to invest in things like Gold.

[Andres]

Yes, you are 100% correct as marketers we make our own economy. As far as I'm concerned I'll be Ok. I'm still young and I'll bounce back no problem.

But I do worry for my parents who are not marketers and are ready to retire.

Now I find myself talking to them about investing in precious metals to hedge against inflation and protect what they have.

[kkchoon1]

This is just the beginning of economy down turn, there will be more worst news to come, but you are right, we are the marketer, we are the economy!

So cheer up warrior! let's fight the economy and make more money....we are the economy!

[marley]

Originally Posted by kkchoon1

This is just the beginning of economy down turn, there will be more worst news to come, but you are right, we are the marketer, we are the economy!

If this is just the beginning then it is a long one i was hoping that we were closer to the end than the start and that maybe around the turn of the year we will see things heading in an upwards direction once again.

[Tuzic]

hi,

i think for peopel actually selling products online like on amazon or ebay then they will be effected other other IM wont be.

[radioray]

Here's a different, empowering question:

If money is nothing more than a measuring unit of the exchange of value... what can you do to create more value?

Think about that carefully.

While there may (or may not) be a finite amount of money... if we can CREATE value (which we can)... then there is an INFINITE amount of value to create.

[-RMH-]

Originally Posted by Sami

Again that will never happen not in the next hundred years or more

Sami - I appreciate your courage and optimism.

Let me ask you:

How long will God permit our government to use unequal weights and measures?

"You shall not have in your house differing measures, a large and a small. You shall have a full and just weight; you shall have a full and just measure, that your days may be prolonged in the land which the LORD your God gives you." Deuteronomy 25:14,15

"Differing weights and differing measures, both of them are abominable to the LORD." Proverbs 20:10

Nations who depend on fiat currency don't have a good track record. Empires in general don't have a good track record. God eventually brings every empire to its knees.

Bablyon - Medo Persia - Greece - Rome - England - "Mystery Babylon" (U.S.?)

The U.S. currently uses a system of fiat currency combined with fractional reserve banking.

Your bank may have only 5-10% in REAL dollar bills compared to total deposits.

If the bank has $10 Million in deposits, they may have only $1 Million in cash. If everybody wanted to convert their accounts into cash, the banks would collapse.

Oh, wait.

That just happened a week ago to Washington Mutual -- the largest bank failure in history.

People started a run on the bank. After about 10 days, the bank went belly up. They simply couldn't fulfill the cash withdrawals.

Run on Bank Helped Kill WaMu But Your Money Is Safe: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance

From the Article: 'Simply put, WaMu was victimized by a classic "run on the bank." Customers withdrew $16.7 billion in a 10-day period following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, leaving WaMu "with insufficient liquidity to meet its obligations," its regulators determined.'

Insufficient liquidity = no cash.

Here's a bank that survived The Great Depression... but could not survive today. How many more banks will fail? How soon?

Has the U.S. empire finally reached the end of the line?

Ray says: "But that doesn't make you correct."

You're correct, Ray. I've been wrong before, and I will be wrong again.

Each person must examine the facts and come to their own conclusions. And given the same facts, we will all come to different conclusions! :-)

Ryan

P.S. If you'd like to learn about various forms of currency, here is a good article:

Idaho Observer: Money? It's not what you think it is.

[Paramount Chief]

Jermy I think you got it right, "The Emperor Has No Clothes On". America is broke. America is based on debt. I also agree with dvduval's post, we should consider others who might be hurt and don't have the financial resources some other may have. What America does have is a great people and a can do spirit, which has sevred us well. A postive mindset coupled with definite, precise action can make all the difference. Remember the symbol for crisis is also the symbol for opportunity in China.

Dare To Be Great!
Shabaka J-El
The Plan B Strategist

[mmurtha]

That sounds like What Frank Kern stated in his emergency video.

Now that was a good solid video, and right on spot with the economy.


Mary

[-RMH-]

Originally Posted by BuddyT

Ah yes, I always look to a religious text for economic advice. %^]

The passages I quoted have to do with fairness and honesty.

I guess the primary difference between me and a lot of folks (religious people included) is that I believe in God's total sovereignty.

Most people (Christians included) are humanists... the idea of man as god.

"If you want something, just make it happen." Or "You can have whatever you want if you put your mind to it." That kind of thing.

This is philosophical candy. It sounds great, but it will rot your brain.

Man has been given a certain amount of authority in the world. It is limited by God. Ultimately, He is the One in control.

If He is bringing down the economic system, then there is not a thing any one of us can do to stop it.

Where do you place your trust -- in the God of the Bible or "your" ability to earn dollars?

Ryan Healy

[petebolduc]

Originally Posted by Sami

Ryan ... no way my friend. This is another (hard) lesson for the inexorable rise of modern society, no more, no less....


...Again that will never happen not in the next hundred years or more until there the US becimes so complacent that it totally decays from within AND there is a credible (non-decaying) alternative for people to turn to.

And that won't happen ... some of the best and brightest human beings live in the US and/or work the US.

Take it for what it is worth...

Just because we desire a certain things does not mean it is going to happen the way we want.

This economic crash is a serious thing. Congress is scrambling to put a band aid on serious injury. Greed is the cause of this and the band aid will be air marked with greed. A lot of already wealthy people will get even more rich from the band aid and the little guy will ultimately pay the price.

Internet marketers may fair well through it but it is those who are marketing true opportunity built on solid foundations that will prosper the most.

A personal recent study showed that on the average 1.2 million people a month are querying for home-based internet opportunity. If you have a quality opportunity product that really earns people income and not some rehashed material built on old philosophy you should do well, if not, find one to market or you'll fall by the wayside.


pete

[seasoned]

I thought, and was ALWAYS told, that a couple companies WERE run by the government. I wanted to tell you a half truth, and found I was RIGHT! The half truth? From their website:

FNMA was created in 1938, under President Franklin D. Roosevelt, at a time when millions of families could not become homeowners, or risked losing their homes, for lack of a consistent supply of mortgage funds across America.

The government established FNMA in order to expand the flow of mortgage funds in all communities, at all times, under all economic conditions, and to help lower the costs to buy a home.

FNMA has a unique duty to the public it serves -- and the private investors that fuel its service -- to be a model company focused on service, reliability, and value.

OK, you got me! The "lie"? They changed their WRITTEN name because nobody could remember Federal National Nortgage Association, or whatever the ackronym is precisely for. Today they are known as Fannie Mae!

About Fannie Mae

How about the FEDERAL Home Loan Mortgage Association, FHLMC AKA Freddie Mac!? Shouldn't the GOVERNMENT have been watching them? If anyone, the POLITICIANS should pay! If I were king, I would GUT their pensions and entitlements and buy back the worthless loans, and kick out the freeloaders. Unfortunately, I am NOT. If done RIGHT though, this won't make ANYONE rich! It WILL bring sanity back though. I guess none of you feel you have to save any money.

You PROBABLY want to have over $150K for every year of your life up to 70. If you are 20, that means you probably want $7,500,000 saved up! Do you have that? If not, HOW will you get it? DON'T say selling, because the credit market could make internet commerce HISTORY! And WHO might buy?

OK, DON'T be pessimistic! The depression is a big 800 pound gorilla. DON'T worry about him hurting you. Just DON'T advocate going up and trying to hit him, etc.... Doing so would be pretty stupid!

BTW by my little formula, which may STILL be low, I only need 3,750,000! This latest downturn certainly hasn't helped.

STEVE

[Doug McIsaac]

Great post. I was about to start one just like this, but your real estate launch is an awesome example.

Good marketing is even MORE important in our current economy.

Doug

[Kevin Riley]

Also, always remember that as an Internet marketer, you are working with global economy not local only. If you're only restricting yourself to the US economy - like I see some of the big companies do with US-only forms, etc. - then you are missing out on a whole lot more.

I sell to just about every corner of the planet (no sales from Uzbekistan, yet). The local Osaka economy is in the toilet again, but it makes absolutely no difference to me. Go global!

[Chris Lockwood]

Originally Posted by -RMH-

But there are plenty of people who are struggling. The recession IS happening. Banks ARE failing. The money supply IS growing (inflation = less purchasing power).

Hyperinflation is almost inevitable when a society is built on fiat currency.

You lost me when you mention recession, since we are NOT in one now.

Can you name some countries that do not use fiat currency?

[-RMH-]

Originally Posted by Chris Lockwood

You lost me when you mention recession, since we are NOT in one now.

Depends on how you define "recession." Most sources define a recession as a general decline in economic activity, which is fairly subjective.

Home sales are down... unemployment numbers are up... automobile sales are lagging.

Seems to me there is a general decline in economic activity.

The government definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters in which the GNP declines.

So far, this has not happened in 2008. At least if you believe government numbers to be fully accurate.

By the government's definition, we are not technically in a recession.

Of course, if we weren't in a recession, why would the government be scrambling to throw $700 billion at the economy. To make a strong economy even better?

Originally Posted by Chris Lockwood

Can you name some countries that do not use fiat currency?

No, I can't name one.

A quick Google search seems to indicate most (all?) sovereign nations use fiat currency. Although I'm sure there are some isolated places that still use commodity money or barter as a means of exchange.

Also, just because most countries issue fiat currency doesn't make it right.

Ryan Healy

[Chris Lockwood]

Originally Posted by -RMH-

Depends on how you define "recession." Most sources define a recession as a general decline in economic activity, which is fairly subjective.

I use the actual definition, rather than making up my own as some people do. I suggest finding more accurate sources, especially if you expect people to pay attention to you on the subject of economics.

A recession is 2 or more consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. The US is not at that point. The 2nd quarter grew above 3% and numbers for the 3rd are not out yet.

"Recession" comes from "recede" which means to get smaller, i.e. the economy shrinks.

[Chris Lockwood]

Originally Posted by -RMH-

Of course, if we weren't in a recession, why would the government be scrambling to throw $700 billion at the economy. To make a strong economy even better?


A quick Google search seems to indicate most (all?) sovereign nations use fiat currency. Although I'm sure there are some isolated places that still use commodity money or barter as a means of exchange.

Do you really not know the stated reason for the bailout?


Why doesn't every country in the world have hyperinflation if they are all on fiat currency, which you say causes hyperinflation?

[seasoned]

Originally Posted by Chris Lockwood

You lost me when you mention recession, since we are NOT in one now.

Can you name some countries that do not use fiat currency?

Switzerland doesn't, in the most absolute meaning. Last I heard, they had like 7 times the reserve of the entire US. That was BEFORE the US probably sold off like EVERYTHING! It is IRONIC that the sold cost was like 10 times the legal value, ORIGINALLY! AGAIN, the legal value hasn't gone up, but the market value has nearly doubled.

Steve

[seasoned]

Originally Posted by Chris Lockwood

Do you really not know the stated reason for the bailout?


Why doesn't every country in the world have hyperinflation if they are all on fiat currency, which you say causes hyperinflation?

They DO have hyperinflation! You just don't realize it because they USUALLY balance it out. Look at HERSHEY! Their bar used to be a good indicator of inflation. It kept changing in size. EVENTUALLY, things got SO bad they changed the price. NOW, it is SMALLER and costs MORE!

BTW The G8 was created to help mitigate inflation. The 8 largest economies came together and did it. I predicted it would be a G3 when it was G7. OK, russia entered, so the G8 basically became the G4. HOWEVER, the G4 speaks for someting like 36 countries. They include Great britain, most of western europe, part of eastern europe, russia, Japan, and the US. And their ******ONLY******* job is to keep inflation in check. But HECK, the ECU is SUPPOSED to be kept at $1USD! And WHERE is it now?

BTW a LOT of people don't know the REAL stated reason for the bailout. Greenspan lowered the rates a bit before clinton came into office, and it started a HUGE boom in real estate. Clinton relaxed bank requirements and, while claiming HE was responsible for the boom, ended up feeding a scam where people called EVERYONE to get them to pay an ABSURDLY low rate! I, MYSELF, was called by a guy that practically called me an IDIOT for not taking his offer. I had an OK rate, and couldn't see how he could offer such a low rate. It turns out it was a SCAM! They hoped to BILK the market out of BILLIONS! Well, the market TOOK OFF in the midst of a huge boo created by greenspan's STUPIDITY and GREED! Greenspan then tried to destroy the market, and basically DECLARED he would do so! He raised rates HIGH! The dot com boom became dot bomb. He THEN scrambles to lower the rate a LOT! George bush came in. The cash eventually dried up, and mortgages started failing.

The STATED purpose of the bailout is to BUY those failed mortgages at CURRENT market(This means the current mortgagers TAKE A LOSS, but they will NOT lose more!), and try to give those people favorable terms so they can KEEP their homes. If successful, the people will KEEP their homes, market values will start to climb, and the government can make money. If PARTIALLY successful, the market values may still possibly climb, and the government can make money. If it is a total failure, the market may drop a bit, but the big banks are safe, and the government might still make money. The ONLY way they can lose is if the average property LOSES value over what the outstanding loan is at purchase! If they bought MY home, and I defaulted, they would today probably MAKE over $60,000USD! OK, property values fell, and it is a depressed market, and I have a middle class home. But that value increases an average of over $1,000USD every month! BTW I never did take that jerk up on that deal. My terms are still OK, and I am not likely to default.

Steve

[Angela V. Edwards]

I keep telling everybody that all they have to do is give ME the $700 Billion dollars and I'd be glad to spend it and revive the economy.

[TimPhelan]

Originally Posted by Chris Lockwood

I use the actual definition,...
A recession is 2 or more consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. The US is not at that point. The 2nd quarter grew above 3% and numbers for the 3rd are not out yet.

Actual definition? According to who?

The National Bureau's Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains a chronology of the U.S. business cycle. The chronology identifies the dates of peaks and troughs that frame economic recession or expansion. The period from a peak to a trough is a recession and the period from a trough to a peak is an expansion. According to the chronology, the most recent peak occurred in March 2001, ending a record-long expansion that began in 1991. The most recent trough occurred in November 2001, inaugurating an expansion.

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades.

Q: The financial press often states the definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. How does that relate to the NBER's recession dating procedure?

A: Most of the recessions identified by our procedures do consist of two or more quarters of declining real GDP, but not all of them. The most recent recession in our chronology was in 2001. According to data as of July 2008, the 2001 recession involved declines in the first and third quarters of 2001 but not in two consecutive quarters. Our procedure differs from the two-quarter rule in a number of ways. First, we consider the depth as well as the duration of the decline in economic activity. Recall that our definition includes the phrase, "a significant decline in economic activity." Second, we use a broader array of indicators than just real GDP. One reason for this is that the GDP data are subject to considerable revision. Third, we use monthly indicators to arrive at a monthly chronology.

The NBER’s Recession Dating Procedure

Just as there is an agency to define the measure of inflation; the official agency in charge of declaring that the economy is in a state of recession is the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

Recession Definition | RECESSION.ORG

Two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP is commonly taken to be a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research, a private organization, effectively decides when recessions occur, however...

Definition of Recession

In US, a recession is said to occurs, whenever the National Bureau of Economic Research NBER says so.

Economics Essays: Definition of Recession

I think Ryan was correct in saying it depends "on how you define "recession." Most sources define a recession as a general decline in economic activity, which is fairly subjective."

Many times when people quote the two quarters rule they also include the word "usually" or "typically" because it is typical to have two quarters of negative growth in a recession but there have been two recessions that didn't have this according to NBER.

[-RMH-]

@TimPhelan - Excellent response. Couldn't have said it better myself. :-)

[Lance K]

I'm all about abundance and controlling your own destiny, too. But to say "screw the economy" is rather ignorant. Because no matter how hard you work, if your currency goes void it doesn't matter.

People really should pay attention to the situation. Not saying to act like chicken little. But pay attention and make your voice heard if need be. We the people...remember?

[Jeremy123]

don't put all your eggs into the US dollar...

Fool Video: The Next Shoe to Drop?

[radioray]

Wow.

I go away for a day or two and look what happens.

Nice discussion.

Basically, for me it seems to come down to two basic groups:

The "I Just Like To Talk About It Group". These folks love to endlessly debate the issues, and keep piling up more and more evidence and ever-more-tightly reasoned arguments about why we're all screwed.

Then there's the "I Just Like to Do Something About It" group. These people usually sign the paychecks of the people in the first group.

In my experience, that's the way it shapes up.

For those who believe that my economics are off-base, I refer you to a book by Ayn Rand called "Atlas Shrugged" . As you read it, you might ask yourself which group you belong to.

Now For Something Completely Different...

Just for the record, Ryan, I do place my trust in the God of the Bible and in Jesus Christ His Son. Now before I get flamed, I'm just responding to part of this thread, and I thought it fair to state clearly what my beliefs are (so you can place my comments within their proper context). I'm not telling anyone here what to believe.

I appreciate your comments Ryan -- and I admire you "sticking your neck out" by bring them into the discussion. However, my beliefs about spiritual matters don't lead me to the same conclusions you've come to. And since you brought it up, I felt obligated to answer.

I won't turn this into a theological discussion about what comprises the "Will of God". For those who are interested in that discussion, I'd suggest a book by Gary Friesen called "Decision Making and the Will Of God" .

[Chris Lockwood]

Originally Posted by TimPhelan

Actual definition? According to who?

According to the dictionary and people who know what they are talking about.

Do you have a dictionary?

[AlexKaplo]

Hey there Radioray,

Wow, great post man thanks for sharing that and it's nice hearing you made some serious money there.

The second I finished reading your story you reminded me of the definition of an entrepreneur and I never truly knew what it was until I watched the movie "The Call of the Entrepreneur".

I'm not getting paid to advertise this but I recommended everyone to check out this movie or at least watch the trailer on Youtube... Here's the link

The Call of the Entrepreneur

.
Again thanks for sharing your success story man it really motivated me!


Regards,

-Alex Kaplo

[TimPhelan]

Here's a dictionary or two for ya Chris:

1 : the act or action of receding : withdrawal
2 : a departing procession (as of clergy and choir at the end of a church service)
3 : a period of reduced economic activity

recession - Definition from the Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary

Oops. Nothing about two consecutive quarters there.

Here's another one that has a more detailed definition

recession
An extended decline in general business activity. The National Bureau of Economic Research formally defines a recession as three consecutive quarters of falling real gross domestic product. A recession affects different securities in different ways. For example, holders of high-quality bonds stand to benefit because inflation and interest rates may decline. Conversely, stockholders of manufacturing firms will probably see company profits and dividends drop.

Case Study After nearly a year of falling commodity prices, rising unemployment, increasing personal and corporate bankruptcies, falling stock prices, and declining public confidence, the National Bureau of Economic Research made it official and on November 26, 2001, declared a recession. The announcement wasn't a surprise to hundreds of thousands of people who had lost their jobs and an even greater number of investors who had experienced substantial losses in the stock market. The bureau's Business Cycle Dating Committee of six academic economists determined the recession commenced in March 2001, when economic activity stopped growing. Although many economists use declines in gross domestic product to define a recession, the NBER Dating Committee examined employment, industrial production, manufacturing and trade sales, and personal income. The country's last previous recession lasted eight months and ended in March 1991. The subsequent ten-year period of uninterrupted growth between March 1991 and March 2001 was the longest in America's history.

Oops, that one mentions the NBER's defintion although the dictionary made a mistake about the NBER's defintion and said it was 3 consecutive quarters, which is not really NBERs definition. Image that. A dictionary being wrong! :-)

recession financial definition of recession. recession finance term by the Free Online Dictionary.

Let's try another one of them dictionaries:

1. The act of withdrawing or going back.
2. An extended decline in general business activity, typically two consecutive quarters of falling real gross national product.
3. The withdrawal in a line or file of participants in a ceremony, especially clerics and choir members after a church service.

recession - definition of recession by the Free Online Dictionary, Thesaurus and Encyclopedia.

Hey, it says two consecutive quarters, but there's that darn "typically" word in there again. Guess you're wrong so far.

Let's try one more:

Re`ces´sion Pronunciation: rė`sĕsh´ŭn
n. 1. The act of receding or withdrawing, as from a place, a claim, or a demand.
Mercy may rejoice upon the recessions of justice.
- Jer. Taylor.
2. (Economics) A period during which economic activity, as measured by gross domestic product, declines for at least two quarters in a row in a specific country. If the decline is severe and long, such as greater than ten percent, it may be termed a depression.
3. A procession in which people leave a ceremony, such as at a religious service.
1. The act of ceding back; restoration; repeated cession; as, the recession of conquered territory to its former sovereign.

Recession - Definition of Recession by Webster's Online Dictionary

By golly. It has your definition. Of course that's the 1913 Webster dictionary, but hey, I'll give it to you Chris. One out of four. Good going.

No, seriously, we were talking about the US economy I believe and the NBER is generally the one who decides if the US is in or has been in a recession.

Originally Posted by Chris Lockwood

According to the dictionary and people who know what they are talking about.

Do you have a dictionary?

[seasoned]

I HATE to say it, but....

Originally Posted by TimPhelan

Here's a dictionary or two for ya Chris:
recession - Definition from the Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary

Oops. Nothing about two consecutive quarters there.

NOT ACCURATE, and it basically says we have been in a recession for DECADES!

Originally Posted by TimPhelan

recession financial definition of recession. recession finance term by the Free Online Dictionary.

Let's try another one of them dictionaries:



Hey, it says two consecutive quarters, but there's that darn "typically" word in there again. Guess you're wrong so far.

BETTER, but I don't think we really qualify NOW then!

PLEASE NOTE:

Interest rates usually fall in recessionary times to stimulate the economy by offering cheap rates at which to borrow money.

I have said that for about 16 years!!!!! I mentioned it HERE a few times! That IDIOT greenspan took away THAT option! Why don't they throw him in jail for a few decades for being a TRAITOR!?

Originally Posted by TimPhelan

Recession - Definition of Recession by Webster's Online Dictionary

By golly. It has your definition. Of course that's the 1913 Webster dictionary, but hey, I'll give it to you Chris. One out of four. Good going.

Now, seriously, we were talking about the US economy I believe and the NBER is generally the one who decides if the US is in or has been in a recession.

ECONOMICS IS ECONOMICS! We are talking about ideas that have been around for MILLENIA! This is the clearest and most accurate definition! And "NBER"?!?!?!? You're KIDDING, RIGHT? Who died and made THEM boss? Do you work for them or something?

BTW Their site says, regarding recent recessions:

Economic Fluctuations and Growth

On November 26, 2001, the committee announced that a recession had begun in the U.S. economy in March 2001. That is, a peak in economic activity occurred during March and the economy began to contract. A recession is a significant decline in activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, visible in real gross domestic product, employment, and other indicators of activity. The committee determined in November 2001 that these conditions had been met.

On July 17, 2003, the committee announced that the recession had ended in November of 2001. The trough marked the end of the recession that began in March 2001 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted eight months, which is slightly less than average for recessions since World War II. Real GDP has grown since the trough, as shown in the figure below.

SO, "happy days are here again"( Lyrics and Music ), huh?

Frankly, data is polluted, and I think that is all HOG WASH! If ONLY I had some dirty pigs.

Originally Posted by TimPhelan

recession - definition of recession by the Free Online Dictionary, Thesaurus and Encyclopedia.

OK, I don't get it! That doesn't support your case at all!

[TimPhelan]

Originally Posted by seasoned

NOT ACCURATE, and it basically says we have been in a recession for DECADES!

Right. Kind of my point. A dictionary isn't always accurate.

BETTER, but I don't think we really qualify NOW then!

NBER hasn't said we are in a recession yet. I'm not saying we are either, but we could be if the last quarter had a negative GDP.

The NBER was founded in 1920. Its first staff economist and Director of Research was Wesley Mitchell. Simon Kuznets was working at the NBER when the U.S. government asked him to help organize a system of national accounts in 1930, which was the beginning of the official measurement of GDP and other related indices of economic activity. Due to its work on national accounts and business cycles, the NBER is well-known for providing start and end dates for recessions in the United States.

The NBER is the largest economics research organization in the United States. Sixteen of the 31 American winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics have been NBER associates, as well as three of the past Chairmen of the Council of Economic Advisers, including the former NBER president, Martin Feldstein. NBER research is published by the University of Chicago Press.

National Bureau of Economic Research - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I'm not saying the NBER has THE definitive definition of a recession, but they carry as much weight as any dictionary. They helped define what the GDP is. I'm just showing Brian's statement wasn't BS.

That doesn't support your case at all!

That link was out of place. That was the link that had "typical" in it. I moved it. Thanks for catching that Steve.

[radioray]

I enjoy a good spirited debate as much as anyone.

But my original point was (and still is) that ENTREPRENEURS are the ONLY people who will make a positive change in the "economy".

My title for the thread was chosen carefully.

When I said "Screw the Economy" it was NOT (as has been suggested here) "ignorant". In fact, I chose the title -- and specifically the term "economy" -- because most people ARE using that term in ignorance. They talk about it as if it (the "economy") is a THING they can pin down and point to.

The "economy" is not some static THING that we can analyze. It is a term that refers to a system of knowledge based on observing the ACTIVITIES of... certain people.

Ever notice how most "economists" are broke? Why is that? In my experience, it's because they spend their time in an academic pursuit instead of in a wealth-creating pursuit.

Politicians (and economists) do not provide jobs, reduce inflation, or "help" the economy.

They do however, ARTIFICIALLY create FAKE jobs that the marketplace will not support (this these jobs must be funded by... you guessed it... MORE taxes!), temporarily manipulate inflation, and re-distribute money to further their own self interest.

I'm not against self-interest. The problem with the aforementioned groups is that they engage in a very specific practice in order to accomplish their aims: theft.

They steal from those who produce wealth, jobs, incomes, profits, etc. so they can give to those who do none of those things.

After all, who pays all those new taxes. Well, we all know..it's the "rich", of course.

You know, those "greedy bastards" who are just out to make a buck. Of course... those are the same "greedy bastards" who provide the jobs, goods and services everyone else counts on to keep their lives pleasant and comfortable.

Why did banks collapse? Because they loaned money to people with bad credit records, no jobs, and low incomes. In other words, they made bad business decisions.

The point of my post was not to engage in this debate, however.

Nor was it to argue about which dictionary has the right definition of the word "recession".

It was to say simply that WE as ENTREPRENEURS can defy the odds, and make a positive economic change in the present economic reality.

And ONLY we can do that.

It was to say that instead of being one of "the many" who bemoan their fate (or spend time constructing elaborate arguments about WHY THINGS WON'T WORK)... we are called to be one of the FEW who actually DO something about it.

Those who hear the "call of the entrepreneur" know what I'm talking about. You're nodding your head right now. You know that yes, circumstances may be challenging, but there is a way to profit from those circumstances. And that there is a way to do it ethically that benefits you, your staff, your customers, and the world at large -- all at once.

This is NOT a "zero-sum" game where there MUST be losers.

Only losers think that way.

;-)

[Jeremy123]

can't believe the squabbling over a definition

recession is relative according to each persons financial standing,
whether bull or bear market