Double Dip Recession? What Do You Think?

I don't think we actually emerged from the first dip. Jobs were just bleeding at a slower pace because of the artificial stimulus from the government that deepened the hole.

You're only after comments that agree that things are bad?

I've seen similar things to you - people that were doing really well before starting to struggle.

My business has been affected, but I'm actually working less now than I have done for a long time (maybe ever).

The economic problems have made me focus more on the real problems people are having and I've seriously contemplated taking a year off and doing charity work in really poor areas.

I've stopped traveling so much and I'm rationalising my stuff down so that I'm even more portable and can just get up and go if I decide to.

I thought I was almost in the position before but actually I live in a house much too big for me and I've filled it with stuff over the last few years so it's a bigger job than I thought it would be.

I've seen the recession affecting everywhere I've been over the last year and a half and I don't see things getting much better any time soon.

There are still people doing well and there will always be people thriving in hard times, but the biggest impact it's had on me is to highlight just how bad some people have it - and how many people really do have it bad right now.

It gets me swinging between ditching all my stuff and doing charity work or starting to work harder and making more money in order to use that to help people.

I'm still undecided.

Andy

I'm working much more right now, than I ever was before in my own business... but it really isn't about the recession. More about securing my family future for generations to come.

I'm happy to do what I love for long hours and increase my profits. I just happened to shift the focus of my business as the "recession" hit the world.

As for the recession...

I truly believe we can't have a "double dip", because it is still deep in the first "dip". Sure, many businesses, including my own, have continued to grow in this current climate. My own business growing was a result of my actions, though.

Having said that...

Nobody can deny that there is still a very worrying thing going on in many sectors, and it's never really recovered. So as far as I'm concerned, we'll have to recover before we can have another one

I can't see us coming out of it in 2010, and I can't see it looking much better by the end of 2011, either. There are wholesale changes required, right across the global economy. Maybe we are moving into an era of change on this front, who knows?... One thing is for sure, there will be people suffering from this financial meltdown for years to come.

Peace

Jay

p.s. Do you really need to tell people how/how not to reply to your posts?....

I think the next month or so will give us a much better idea of whether or not we go into a double-dip. The reactions following the Greek financial bail-out were made worse yesterday with the announcement by Angela Merkel about short selling. The markets are still sliding today so it's looking ominous for now.

From an IM point of view it can be looked on as an opportunity by those who want to see the positives out there. If you can see it as a chance to help people with good information at the right price, at their time of need and genuinely try to help you can really use the situation to build a firm relationship which will serve you and your customers for years to come.

I hate to use the cliche of whether the glass is half full or half empty but it really does come down to what you want to see. IMHO of course!

Nigel

To be fair.

Some businesses, genuinely haven't been affected by the recession.

I can't say that for my own, I'd be a fool to think I'm not working a helluva lot more as a result of the recession to make things go my way... but there are fields and industries that have prospered in the current climate.

As long as my bank doesn't go bankrupt, then I don't see a problem at all.

In a recession, times can be good for YOUR businesses...

Less advertisers = cheaper advertising for YOUR business
Less buyers = cheaper products for YOUR business
More unemployment = better employees for YOUR business

Focus less on problems and more on opportunities, and you're already 10 steps ahead of your competition.

Good luck.

My stats show that earnings per visitor has decreased by 25-40% over the last 2 years. My income has been flat for a year but only because my visitor numbers have increased to compensate.

Double dip might be the optimistic prediction. There are bubbles that have yet to burst but have been delayed by the fiscal counter measures. I think that this is going to be long and painfull.

many people say the economy is recovering, but, from what I saw, it is the opposite way.

I bring my son to legoland park several times recently, every time we went there, it became less crowded. Before we had to wait for 30-60 minutes for a ride, now, 10 minutes, or less. Maybe this is not a evidence at all, but to me, if parents can not afford the money for their children, the financial side is not good to them.

We'll go visit it again this weekend, we'll see.

just my observation.


david

>
Now the question is, do we come out of this in 2010 or will we have a double dip that goes into 2011?
>

People STILL buy designer underwear at EBAY....i don't buy all that "economy is so bad" blah blah.

Now..this is ALSO a very good example for a strategy!


Marketer A says: "OMG! The economy is so bad!" So he takes down all his luxury products and sells low quality, low priced items and his business is at an all time low.

Marketer B puts his luxury items on ebay and offers them cheaper than retail....he is selling the same stuff which Marketer A abandened, but he manages it to sell it in such a way that people think they get a BARGAIN.

Guess who is smarter?

The recession hasn't even started yet IMO, it's still at the beginning and it isn't double dipping, it's simply fluctuating on it's way down. Just the normal behaviour of business cycles that the financial system relies on and has done for a very long while. The only difference this time round is this cycle will be a lot bigger than what we have been used to.

The first dip isn't done yet!
Also, a large part of the world, including here in Australia, is still in bubble mode thanks to crazy stimulus measures funded by massive new debt.

I most certainly hope that the Recession will be over real soon, because I have several family members including myself who can't find a job. I'm making a little money online. But not as nearly as much as I was making at my day job.

Hey Big Ron, what's up bro.

To answer your op:

WHAT RECESSION?


XXX Vegas Vince
Legend.

I think that we have a bit more of this to go. We still haven't seen the commercial meltdown yet. I wish it weren't so...

We are still in recession. The jobless rate is NOT 9.5%. That doesn't take into account the people that have given up looking. Local and state governments bleed jobs next. Stimulus goes away soon. Deflation is back. We have indications a downward spiral is present, and the "best case" scenario is we pretend to be Japan for another 5-10 years.

Meanwhile, nobody is investing in R&D because that would hurt short term profits for stock holders. We have no vision any more for the future. It's all a short term game of seeing what we can cut for profits, whether that be tightening the R&D budget or sending jobs overseas.

For me, I'm working less and earning more than I was this time last year. Haven't seen anything to cause me to worry.

In the UK the big gamble is if the private sector will grow enough to fill the void that it is going to be created by public sector cuts.
Anyway for certain, more unemployed, more people looking to earn extra cash, more newbies to help and more sales.

One thing that bothers me, if we owe all this money to the Bank of England, and we collectively own the Bank of England, who are we paying it to? Can we just "wipe out " the debt and start again?

Perhaps a one world currency is the next stage, and is where this is all leading ?

Sounds a bit utopian.For the big boys to make money they need to be able to manipulate exchange rates. So, we might end up with three, say US, European and Asian.

I have read from a number of top rank economists that they expect a double dip. I tend to agree that this will happen or we will just limp along with dismal growth. I know that for many, they have not felt like the recession is over.

If we look back in history, we can learn a lot about what is happening, and what we should do to correct it.

I am talking from a respective of the USA, but the majority of thw world has had similar experences along the same time frames, I believe.

Does anyone remember the depression of 1920? Few do. But in that depression/recession, the administration did just about nothing to spur the economy and it recovered by itself. The business cycle tends to do that if the government will just not meddle.

How about the recession of 1946? The US government cut taxes and cut spending. The recession recovered post haste. I had not even heard of it until someone pointed it out to me. It is not talked about because the government didn't spend massive amounts of money to correct it.

Keynesian economics has proven itself not to work. The government borrows massive amounts of money to infuse into the economy, but they have to get it from somewhere and taking it from that source removes if from the economy so on balance it evens out and there is no net benefit. The only thing you end up with is massive debt, so you are worse off than if you had done nothing.

So the US government took the Keynesian model and end up we end up with massive debt for out children and grandchildren to pay. I can't see a bright future for us for some time to come. I hope I am wrong. I expect big changes in this next election due to the feeling of the electorate on what the current group of politicians have done. But who knows, the electorate is not always easy to judge.

But to answer your original question, yet I expect a double dip or a flat line. Hope I didn't get to political.

Hello Ron,

Over the years, I have gone through several downturns in the economy and from what I have saw that has worked, is to give tax credits to businesses that are willing to invest in new machinery to become more efficient.

This stimulates manufacturing, and at the same time stimulates buying.

Cutting taxes, with incentives, to me it's the best option, stimulate job creation.

Giving the banks billions of dollars, without any instructions or strings or regulations, was a giant mistake.
Mostly what they did, would sit on the money and not the loan additional money to businesses or to potential home buyers.

Work with your budget, watch your expenses and track your income. Wherever you're making funds increase your activity.

It appears like it will be a little slow on the next one to three years, so try to grow during that time and when it is over, you will be ready for the explosion of business that is sure to come.

All the best ... Ron

One problem with various problems, claims, incentives, short term non sustainable payments, etc.... Is that they make it *******IMPOSSIBLE******* to gauge perception. The stock market is like earthquakes. Someone decided that there were certain standards, and future things are looked at in THOSE terms. EXAMPLE????

A vibration is felt by two plates along a fault line moving. It measures 7.0 on the richter scale. WHAT is it called!?!?!?

MOST people would say earthquake. But that may be wrong, or MADE wrong. HOW!?!?!?

If it comes a day after a 7.1 shake, it is called an AFTERSHOCK! If it comes a day BEFORE one, it is called a preshock.

If I go further, this may be deemed too political, but you get my point. In some ways, we are STILL reeling from the 1999 crash! That DID set into place the environment that lead to low interest rates and sub prime loans.

Steve

I worked with a very successful marketer for years. Multi-millionaire type guy. I remember when this whole recession thing began, I asked him if he was worried or not. He just laughed and said, "noooo, recessions are GREAT! People are more needy. Recessions are boom times for us".

Thinking about it, he's right. During recessions people are needy and desperate, not lazy and complacent. History even proves that. There's far more millionaires made during a recession than during good economic times.

Before the financial system almost collapsed, everybody, I mean the news, was talking about how solid the economy was. Now, those same people are talking about double dip...

For me, it's a sign that things are getting better, which I can feel on my day to day business.

So, to answer your question, no, I don't think there will be a double dip in 2011.

Patrice

I think capitalism has reach a point of betraying itself and that the economy will continue to shrink unless a new economic system is invented.

Here in Australia I don't think we were affected as badly by the recession as other parts of the world, but we're not out of it yet. I think here it is slowly getting worse, our mortgages are increasing all the time, groceries are costing a fortune, electricity, gas, water, all increasing all the time. The only thing that doesn't increase are our wages.

I know my site flipping business has been affected, I still flip sites and still make money from it, but not to the same extent that I did a year or two ago. If things keep going at this rate we will really be struggling soon.

I don't think we came out of the recession or perhaps we are just heading into a double dip, who knows.

Double dip. I think the next two years will be pretty hard. It's a pretty bad thing that many more people will lose their jobs and their homes, and that the guvmint will not be able to help soften the impact, because Uncle Sam is broke, doesn't have two pennies to rub together

Here's some advice for us marketers: everyone should work as hard as possible to create their own USP and value proposition because this training period is, as the OP writes, awesome for separating out the chaff from the wheat and for helping position the winners for a true killing once the economy turns around. Make your own products, strike up collaborations with others well-known and not, and generally produce produce produce. Periods of great downturn lead inevitably to periods of great prosperity, for those that use the time to position themselves well.

This isn't the first time the economy has had a downward turn. IMHO, its enough money out here to go around and it will most definitely be very profitable to those that are already in IM and the one's that are getting into IM, how do you think Donald Trump got as rich as he is. I wish you all the best and many more successes in the future.

Not only now do we have to worry about all of the jobs lost along the Gulf Coast, but now we have companies preparing for the new healthcare rules by laying off even more people. I'd say that we're no where near climbing out yet.

First, just to be responsible, here's a mantra for you...

"It's not THE economy that concerns me, it's MY economy I need to focus on!"

Of course, I don't use mantras, but - if I did...

That's the important focus... the game has changed and is still changing, question is what are you gonna' do 'bout it?

Money is still being made and spent. People are just a whole lot more guarded about how they're makin' it or that they are spendin' it.

I read a story recently where the affluent stores in major US malls are starting to use plain white bags for checkout, because their customers are actually embarrassed to be spending money in this economy.

That's a powerful observation for you as marketers, isn't it? How can you use that information to help you grow your business?

How 'bout the fact that over 600,000 iPhone PRE-ORDERS were made for a product sight unseen less than what, a month ago?... or that over $1.7B in iPhones were sold the first week - or some unbelievable (ridiculous) number like that... for a phone (oh, wait... it has, uhm, "apps" and a browser and - you know... "apps)...

Oh, and let's not forget the two year contract at $X.XX/mo. those buyers also just signed on the dotted line for. I heard that AT&T paid Apple a couple hundred dollars for every contract signed too!

If there is a recession (and there is - like a Tsunami that is building and building, just because everyone has their back's turned, doesn't mean they "ain't" gonna get wet or drowned when it hits full force!), people are ignoring it or pretending delusionally it isn't there or it isn't going to effect them.

The big picture...

Fact is, the blood hasn't even begun to start flowing.

But in the US, we're just not ready to hear that... start referring people to books (heaven forbid they actually read or study the facts instead of gullibly listening to and believing the "news man at nine" on the local propaganda-pimpin' puke pushin' brain washin' HD Flat Screens) like "The Creature From Jekyl Island" by G. Edward Griffin and their eyes start to glaze over.

Wait for it... the storm she's a comin' - with inflation leading the way.

But I digress...

The point is this, we are pretty much too late to effect a change to the momentum in the events that are already rolling on a grand scale - globally.

But, there is still money being spent, it's just taking more skill and trust building, more planning and research, more "right place/right time" positioning, to get at it.

$1.7B for phones. Think about it.

In the last recession, I read once that the makeup and cosmetics industry was booming (do NOT jump into that now, different deal, different market now); Women basically said: "I may not have enough money to pay the mortgage, but buy god I'm gonna look good when they haul me out to the street!"

Laugh if you like... but there is a certain need for us all to feel good about ourselves when the economy is falling apart around us.

How does a person feel who just lost her job?
*low self esteem
*fear of loss of even more
*doubt about her skills or value in the work place
*gains weight from stress
*marriage in turmoil from stress and financial issues
*divorces on the rise
*health insurance and benefits gone
*mortgage in foreclosure
*auto potentially being repossessed
*embarrassed to be around friends and family
*lost, etc.

What can you do to help? How can you provide value to her? What does she need that you can provide?

A job?
A coupon?
Financial reorganizing?
Legal advice?
Marriage advice?
What about her children... what can you provide to them to help?

You get the idea, right?

Another industry that did really well during the last recession was the alcohol and bar business.

Today, laws and attitudes about driving and drinking and other social pressures certainly come into play - so again, I'm not saying this is a good or bad industry to look at - that's not my point.

What is my point, is that people drink when times are good to celebrate, they drink when times are bad to forget.

What other pastimes do they use the same way? Besides alcohol?

Are they staying in a playing more board games or reading more books or renting more movies now - to save gas?

Are they eating in and cooking or spending money eating out?

Are they having more sex? In the marriage or outside of the marriage?

Are they getting healthier or eating more food to cope? Drinking more booze or smoking more... uhm... stuff?

See? It's how you look at things that can make the difference.

How can you leverage any of this to build your business? Is the news all bad... yet?

Also, my advice, as selfish as this seems, is that you have to focus on building your boat before you can help others into it and save them from drowning.

If we all huddle around the same shark infested waters trying to keep each other afloat, who will break away and go get the boat? How long can we huddle together like that before the sharks start pulling us off one at a time.

Swim, I say... SWIM... get out there and paddle your arse off - build your boat, swim to shore and help each other build a boat, team up, do something - the flood she is a coming and the Tsunami is a biggin'.

Just don't tread water watching the sharks circle in... or tread water around others who are pulling you down.

Go ahead and be pissed off, be negative if you feel like it, be angry - just get out there and use all of that to make a difference, to make a living, to build a future, to break away from the pack and build your boat.

You don't have to be all "happy-happy" optimistic to make money - that's just BS.

I know plenty of people who are mean, hateful, hate-their-jobs, arse-holes - who make a lot of money. Yeah, a good attitude helps, but you can make a bad one work too...

Look at the markets... find those that are spending... put something they want in front of them and see what happens.

Now... go out there and start building that boat and quit sitting around here reading long posts by long-winded marketers like me who should be doing the same thing.

In fact, I think I will right now.

If I could just remember where I left that marketing hammer...

Unfortunately the trends that I'm seeing are indicative that perhaps the worst of the financieal mess is not behind us... I think with current policies a double dip recession is very likely.

Just my 2c. As long as interest rates stay low then we don't have to worry about a double dip. I'm from the UK and whilst there are huge cuts and tax hikes, as long as interest rates remain zero bound then we'll be just fine. Of course if a Euro country screws it up then we might all be in a world of trouble but that's out of our hands.

I wrote a dissertation about the recent recession and the Great Depression and what I said above is pretty much my conclusion. Interest rates are absolutely paramount to recovery. I personally think fiscal policy is over-rated. It's all about market confidence and pretty much nothing else.