Why 99% of statistics simply CANNOT be true...

19 replies
One thing that struck me recently was how many people use
statistics in sales copy with obvious mis-truth involved.

I know, as I am sure you do too, how important specifics
are in sales copy (or just in communication in general).
But I think so many people overlook the mis-uses of
such.

For example, how many times have you read a headline that
goes something like this:

"Here's the REAL Reason Why 95% of IMers..."


Or this:

"The hidden truth about x, that 99% of people don't know"


Or how about this one:

"The average conversion rate is 1%".


There's one thing that all of these statistics have in common,
can you guess yet? The answer is that they all use statistical
data that is impossible to prove or backup.

HOW do you know 99% of people don't know that? Have you
asked everyone you're referring to?

HOW do you know that 95% of these people do x...again, have
you checked with them recently?

And HOW do you know that the average conversion rate
ACROSS THE BOARD is 1%?

I'll tell you, unless you've got sales ratio data for every single
business online across every market, then I'm sorry, but you
don't have any right to proclaim such nonsense.

One more thing on conversion ratios - If the average WAS 1%
universally, then that would mean that 80% conversions don't
happen. After all, an average is defined as such:

"In mathematics, an average, or central tendency [1] of a data
set refers to a measure of the "middle" or "expected" value of the
data set".
- source Wikipedia.

So, if you've got some people converting at 50% or more, then
it is impossible to have a 1% average online conversion ratio.

I think people need to realize this in order to convey more
believability in their copy.

What do you think?
#99% #simply #statistics #true
  • Profile picture of the author lakshaybehl
    Let me know which copywriter writes a copy that converts at 50% or more for IM niche in selling... I will probably take a bank loan and give them $1,000,000 (Yes I can do that) to write a copy for my IM product.
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    • Profile picture of the author Nick Brighton
      Originally Posted by lakshaybehl View Post

      Let me know which copywriter writes a copy that converts at 50% or more for IM niche in selling... I will probably take a bank loan and give them $1,000,000 (Yes I can do that) to write a copy for my IM product.
      Well, me too I think. But you know what? It does happen. In certain markets a
      conversion ratio of upward of 25% is not umcommon at all, even without a sales
      letter believe it or not. Wanna know which site gets that sort of ratio on certain
      products....?

      1. Amazon,
      2. Ebay.

      Why? Because people are hitting the product pages LOOKING for what is being sold.
      In the IM world (horrible term), trying to convert people will always be easier when
      you PRESELL the prospects. Product launches are a great example of doing so...

      ...after all, you don't get many people clicking that email link to get the product in the
      next 48 hours ending up saying "actually, I'll pass on this one after all..."

      Unless of course, the vendor's server keeps crashing ;-)

      Now, fancy a few beers on that cool mill you've got lying around?
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  • Profile picture of the author George Wright
    Hi,

    I love your subject line.

    George Wright
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  • Profile picture of the author Dan Grossman
    Originally Posted by Nick Brighton View Post

    One more thing on conversion ratios - If the average WAS 1%
    universally, then that would mean that 80% conversions don't
    happen. After all, an average is defined as such:

    "In mathematics, an average, or central tendency [1] of a data
    set refers to a measure of the "middle" or "expected" value of the
    data set".
    - source Wikipedia.

    So, if you've got some people converting at 50% or more, then
    it is impossible to have a 1% average online conversion ratio.
    That makes no sense. An average does not imply outliers don't exist.

    Let's say a million websites get a 1% conversion rate, and one gets 80%.

    The average is ((1,000,000 * 1% + 1 * 80% = 1,000,080) / 1,000,001 sites) = 1.000008%.
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    • Profile picture of the author Nick Brighton
      Originally Posted by Dan Grossman View Post

      That makes no sense. An average does not imply outliers don't exist.

      Let's say a million websites get a 1% conversion rate, and one gets 80%.

      The average is ((1,000,000 * 1% + 1 * 80% = 1,000,080) / 1,000,001 sites) = 1.000008%.
      Actually, that's a good point. I kinda skewed my point. What I was trying to
      get across is that unless you know the actual data from one end of the spectrum
      to the other, it's impossible to calculate an average...make sense?
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      • Profile picture of the author getsmartt
        Originally Posted by Nick Brighton View Post

        Actually, that's a good point. I kinda skewed my point. What I was trying to
        get across is that unless you know the actual data from one end of the spectrum
        to the other, it's impossible to calculate an average...make sense?

        Actually that is totally incorrect. The whole purpose of statistics is to be able to take a relatively small random sample and extrapolate the results to relate to the entire population.

        A small sampling of data that does not include any of the extremes, either high or low, can accurately predict what the average results will be.
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        • Profile picture of the author Nick Brighton
          Originally Posted by getsmartt View Post

          Actually that is totally incorrect. The whole purpose of statistics is to be able to take a relatively small random sample and extrapolate the results to relate to the entire population.

          A small sampling of data that does not include any of the extremes, either high or low, can accurately predict what the average results will be.
          Only if you're talking about probability. In this argument, such use of statistics is wrongly applied.

          Its impossible to "accurately" predict an average if you don't account for the two opposite ends of the spectrum. You can't interview 1000 people in one city and apply that to an entire country, if you catch my drift.

          Side quote:

          "There is a general perception that statistical knowledge is all-too-frequently intentionally misused by finding ways to interpret only the data that are favorable to the presenter. A famous saying attributed to Benjamin Disraeli is, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics". Harvard President Lawrence Lowell wrote in 1909 that statistics, "...like veal pies, are good if you know the person that made them, and are sure of the ingredients".- source Wikipedia.
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          • Profile picture of the author getsmartt
            Originally Posted by Nick Brighton View Post

            Its impossible to "accurately" predict an average if you don't account for the two opposite ends of the spectrum. You can't interview 1000 people in one city and apply that to an entire country, if you catch my drift.

            That again is two different things, if you were trying to make a prediction of the entire country you would take a random sampling from the entire country not a city.

            The one thing you can possibly say, is the samples of data used to predict the statistics that you mention in the OP, are unknown and thus possibly not representative of the population.

            But, without knowing what sample the stats were based on it is impossible to call them incorrect just because you can find a data point that lies outside of the expected average.

            For example you can certainly have one campaign converting at 80%, even 100% if on the other side of the scale you have a whole bucket load of poorly written campaigns that convert at 0%.

            Now, I personally do not know where the statistics for a 1% conversion rate comes from, Quite possibly someone at one time took a sample of campaigns from a wide variety of sources and sampled them coming up with and average conversion of 1%. It is also possible that someone took a sample of their own campaigns in a limited market and came up with the 1%

            If the first scenario is the case then 1% is the statistical average, you may do better or worse depending on several factors, you copywriting skills, the market you are targeting, the quality of the leads you are targeting.

            If the second scenario is the case then you can rightly say that the sample was not representative of the population of the whole.

            Either way statistics can often be misleading, and are often misunderstood.
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  • Profile picture of the author lakshaybehl
    You are right buddy, in fact I have myself seen MEMBERSHIPS Converting at over 80% in certaion niches... I am a highly sought after physics teacher and people line up when I open the doors to my coaching... No one says NO to me... I say no to people. But my point is that most copywriters or marketers address their targeted audience/prospects with some numbers that seem REAL to the prospect. Not that they are real, they SEEM to be real. And that ius the whole pooint behind that.

    BUT, I am sure you know if ou go ahead and actually do a survey or a market research and post the results to some places beyond the decimal, then even more people will trust your numbers... However small your sample space be.
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  • Profile picture of the author Chris Lockwood
    Nick, you're right, but 87.3% of people will not realize those stats are made up.

    It's not just sales copy. What about all the rules of thumb with no proof, like $1 per subscriber per month, or average member staying 3 months, that people keep stating as fact?
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    • Profile picture of the author Nick Brighton
      Originally Posted by Chris Lockwood View Post

      Nick, you're right, but 87.3% of people will not realize those stats are made up.

      It's not just sales copy. What about all the rules of thumb with no proof, like $1 per subscriber per month, or average member staying 3 months, that people keep stating as fact?
      Thank god it's not just me who sees this BS. Oh the lies, I need a lie down.

      BTW, you're 110% right...there's just so much cowboy antics going on these days online, all which is used in unlawful ways (ie to extract money from people by misleading suggestions, false facts and phony fairy tales of something unattainable from their paid material).
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      • Profile picture of the author Dan Grossman
        Originally Posted by Nick Brighton View Post

        BTW, you're 110% right...there's just so much cowboy antics going on these days online, all which is used in unlawful ways (ie to extract money from people by misleading suggestions, false facts and phony fairy tales of something unattainable from their paid material).
        Well, if you spend too much time on WF, your world view gets skewed.

        99% of purchases made online are not the result of sales letters in the first place, let alone sales letters with made up statistics.

        IM is a niche of a niche most of the world doesn't know exists.

        Let's say 100,000 people populate the IM websites like this one, the make money online blogs, the IM membership sites, etc. That many people make up the market everyone here is trying to market their books/courses/videos/scripts to.

        That's 6% of 1% (6 * 10^-5) of the internet using population (1.4 billion people).
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        • Profile picture of the author Nick Brighton
          Originally Posted by Dan Grossman View Post

          Well, if you spend too much time on WF, your world view gets skewed.

          99% of purchases made online are not the result of sales letters in the first place, let alone sales letters with made up statistics.

          IM is a niche of a niche most of the world doesn't know exists.

          Let's say 100,000 people populate the IM websites like this one, the make money online blogs, the IM membership sites, etc. That many people make up the market everyone here is trying to market their books/courses/videos/scripts to.

          That's 6% of 1% (6 * 10^-5) of the internet using population (1.4 billion people).
          Exactly, it's the same reason 99% of my businesses are OUTSIDE of the incestuous "niche" of IM 2 IM (as I call it).

          It makes me laugh when you see someone clearly heavily involved in marketing their marketing products to other marketers, come out with something like "It's impossible to sell a product without a good sales letter".

          Tell that to Tescos or Wall Mart.
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          • Profile picture of the author Sean A McAlister
            Originally Posted by Nick Brighton View Post

            Exactly, it's the same reason 99% of my businesses are OUTSIDE of the incestuous "niche" of IM 2 IM (as I call it).

            It makes me laugh when you see someone clearly heavily involved in marketing their marketing products to other marketers, come out with something like "It's impossible to sell a product without a good sales letter".

            Tell that to Tescos or Wall Mart.

            Dan / Nick....

            powerful stuff right there...I couldn't agree more.
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            • Profile picture of the author rperales
              Personally...

              ..the 95% failure rate or statistic is not a marketing statistic it's
              the Life Insurance industry statistic..

              After all, who knows better. The 1% statistic are the wealthy which
              are the true statistic because they succeeded using the power
              of the mind not the intellect which is nothing but repetives you can
              witness it here and there and everywhere..

              Like the 4 % most likely happen just so happens that Life flow coincide
              with their ambitions..See health for instance and you will know and
              most likely their success can end anytime hence, the 1% will continue
              forever unless they voluntarely stop which it's highly unlikey because they
              can give it to charity etc..and they do..

              1% wealthy

              4% Financial Independent

              The rest are still working for a living and/or retired can't write a check for
              a sofa, car etc..or died broke!

              We never hear about the 1%..hardly in the news but they are giving millions
              to charity..90,95 and yes over 100 years old are still horse back riding,
              swimming, hunting in Africa, etc..

              rey

              P.S. However, marketers may be using such statistics without this knowledge..
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    • Profile picture of the author Sean A McAlister
      Originally Posted by Chris Lockwood View Post

      Nick, you're right, but 87.3% of people will not realize those stats are made up.

      It's not just sales copy. What about all the rules of thumb with no proof, like $1 per subscriber per month, or average member staying 3 months, that people keep stating as fact?

      lol...i thought it was like 86.9&

      Excellent Post by the way! Keepin things real

      Peace to All!!!

      Sean
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  • Profile picture of the author theenergybiz
    You know that 84.6% of all statistics are made up on the spot, right?
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  • Profile picture of the author Nick Brighton
    Furthermore (and slightly moving away from my original point)...the only numeric theory I stand by to this day is the 80/20 rule.

    You can try all you like to disprove that rule, but it's damn near impossible.
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  • Profile picture of the author Derek S
    99.9% of people do not know that what I am saying in this sentience is just another way to say "a lot". You would consider it a statistic instead of an opinion because the sales copy is attempting to build that author as an authority on the subject.
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