Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

by 101 replies
Hey everyone,

I was reading the sales letter for the Arbitrage Conspiracy today. The guy claims to make 50k to 100k per day by using PPC to drive traffic to CPA offers. Apparently there is way more money in this than "selling stuff".

The sales letter bugged me because he correctly brought up the question of "why would I teach this to you if it worked as well as I say it does, why not just keep it a secret". He goes on to explain that he's starting a CPA network himself, and wants to train people so they'll be his affilates on the network later. Fine.

But here is what bugged me.

He says he held a conference in Vegas and, I quote, "
To help cover costs, we also allowed just 10 other people to pay to attend. They paid up to $10,000 for this 1-day seminar, and those seats sold out in 48 hours."

What? So let me get this straight. This guy makes at least 50k per day and up to 100k per day. That works out to $18.25 million per year, at the low end of his range.

So he decided to hold a conference in Vegas for a bunch of Gurus, and there was no cost to them ... but he also offered 10 spots at up to $10K each, to raise another $100k to "help cover costs".

This means two things:

1) A guy who makes $18M minimum per year is worried about recouping costs for a small conference, and is willing to invite total strangers to the conference in order to do this.

2) We are to believe that a conference for 150 free guests plus 10 paid guests (160 people total) over a ONE DAY period cost over $100k to put on? Hello? The last time I rented a beautiful facility to accomodate that many people the cost was only a few thousand dollars. Nothing even close to 100k.


So, my warrior friends ... I feel like calling HUGE B.S. on this guy's sales letter, but before I do, I'm interested in your thoughts.

Call me curious.
#main internet marketing discussion forum #arbitrage #conspiracy #fun #math
  • Profile picture of the author Martin Luxton
    2) We are to believe that a conference for 150 free guests plus 10 paid guests (160 people total) over a ONE DAY period cost over $100k to put on? Hello? The last time I rented a beautiful facility to accomodate that many people the cost was only a few thousand dollars. Nothing even close to 100k.
    They ate caviar?

    Martin
    • Profile picture of the author jrsencio
      Originally Posted by Martin Luxton View Post

      They ate caviar?

      Martin
      They inebriated themselves on crates of beluga?
  • Profile picture of the author OmegaSayin
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    • Profile picture of the author James Schramko
      Originally Posted by OmegaSayin View Post

      i agree, its all bs; only a true idiot will believe into this shit. if i was making 50k a day the last thing i would do is waste my time doing what he does
      You won't have to worry about making 50k a day with that mindset. It will never happen.
  • Profile picture of the author Noah Fleming
    It's all about leverage and calling in the favors.

    I respect many of the people in those videos but make no mistake you won't be competing against Eben or half those people in the CPA markets. I'll put my house on that.

    Somebody on my private forum really put CPA into perspective today.

    The real $2k secret - make more money then you spend - simple economics.

    That is all there is to it. You need a bank roll for this business as well. I'm not sure people understand that it costs money to make money in CPA. I know this. I've done it. I wrote a report on CPA last year cause I had small time success. But it cost money to make money. IE. Spend $1000 - make $1200

    Is there money to be made? 100%. No doubt.

    Are Aymen & Emmanuel really making a boatload of cash? No doubt. Not one doubt. The cheques are real and that is genuine success.

    Can success be found in CPA Marketing? Yes.

    Will it happen for most? No.


    The sad part of IM is that too many people are walking around like sheep with the wool pulled over their eyes.

    Read the comments on the Arbitrage Conspiracy and you'll find people who are broke & have lost jobs that just "know that arbitrage conspiracy will set them free" all because Eben & Brad & Mike & yada & yada & yada said it would make their own businesses millions of dollars.

    They just know in their hearts "this time it will be different...." They just know that even after buying this big launch that promised success and that big launch that promised success, this time it will be different.

    Yet, they already spent 10k over the past two years on other products that promised the exact same thing.

    It's a sad state of affairs no doubt.
  • Profile picture of the author Mr. Write
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    • Profile picture of the author Eric Lorence
      Originally Posted by Mr. Write View Post

      Anybody claiming to make that much money is a liar. Anybody who believes him is an even bigger fool.
      There are many that do make that and more, but for every $1 the make in arbitrage probably cost them 50-75 cents in PPC.
    • Profile picture of the author chris_surfrider
      Originally Posted by Mr. Write View Post

      Anybody claiming to make that much money is a liar. Anybody who believes him is an even bigger fool.
      Now that's worth a laugh...

      $100k a day is roughly 36.5 Million per year.

      That's big money, but there's a LOT of entrepreneurs in virtually every major industry that see this kind of income.

      Just because YOU don't see "how" this is possible, doesn't mean it's impossible.

      Also, CPA is all about brokering traffic.

      It's not as passive as typical aff promotion because you always have to be checking to see if offers expire, or if there's a daily cap, etc.

      It works GREAT for affiliates who can quickly move traffic, though. Big mailers, people with some serious PPC funding and authority sites with tons of traffic can do very well with CPA. To the tune of millions a year.

      This is the mainstream marketplace.

      -Chris
    • Profile picture of the author James Schramko
      Originally Posted by Mr. Write View Post

      Anybody claiming to make that much money is a liar. Anybody who believes him is an even bigger fool.
      You are misguided. There are books you can read to expand your thinking capacity.
  • Profile picture of the author Chris Thompson
    There is just no rational reason to believe that this guy needs to "cover his costs" of 100k (even if they could possibly be that high) when he has been supposedly making over $18M per year. No reason to believe this at all.

    I think the only part that makes it all "almost OK" is that there is a refund guarantee. If you learn enough to make a profit (above your cost of training) then I think it's worth every penny. If you learn that you need $10k to bankroll the project, and that you could lose money easily, then I'd ask for a refund in a second. No question.
  • Profile picture of the author Chris Lockwood
    Some more fuzzy math: if the 12-week course is only $1997, why was the 1-day event $10,000? I would hope a 12-week course has more than 8 hours worth of content in it.

    Could it be that nobody actually paid $10,000 to attend? Did anyone see it advertised?
    • Profile picture of the author melanied
      The thing that I don't quite understand is this - there are not an unlimited supply of CPA offers floating around at any given time like there are affiliate products.

      Why would I want to jump into competing with all of the other students of this course over the few hundred CPA offers available at any given time?
    • Profile picture of the author Steven Carl Kelly
      Originally Posted by Chris Lockwood View Post

      Could it be that nobody actually paid $10,000 to attend? Did anyone see it advertised?
      Did it have the world famous qualifier "up to" in front of 10k? The whole thing stinks. If I was making $50k per day, I'd be done developing new stuff for quite some time. In fact, if I could sustain that for a year, I could go on for the rest of my life without ever earning another dime.

      I'd like to see this sales page.
    • Profile picture of the author James Schramko
      Originally Posted by Chris Lockwood View Post

      Some more fuzzy math: if the 12-week course is only $1997, why was the 1-day event $10,000? I would hope a 12-week course has more than 8 hours worth of content in it.

      Could it be that nobody actually paid $10,000 to attend? Did anyone see it advertised?
      Take into account that people at the event had an inside run on promoting. They could easily re-coup that investment by applying the material and then becoming an affiliate for the launch.
  • Profile picture of the author Steven Carl Kelly
    Originally Posted by Chris Thompson View Post

    So, my warrior friends ... I feel like calling HUGE B.S. on this guy's sales letter, but before I do, I'm interested in your thoughts.
    I agree. Doing both online marketing as well as doing my own live seminars, his numbers don't make any sense.
  • Profile picture of the author Steven Carl Kelly
    I have a question: I don't do any CPA stuff. What's the biggest CPA network out there?
  • Profile picture of the author getsmartt
    BS or no BS, one thing that is never made clear in any of these PPC pitches, and has been hinted at above, when they say they make 50K a day that is gross profit, more likely after costs his profit margin is probably closer to 5 - 10 K per day, still healthy, but nowhere close to 18M a year.

    Maybe that will add a little perspective to the conversation.
    • Profile picture of the author marcanthony
      Originally Posted by getsmartt View Post

      BS or no BS, one thing that is never made clear in any of these PPC pitches, and has been hinted at above, when they say they make 50K a day that is gross profit, more likely after costs his profit margin is probably closer to 5 - 10 K per day, still healthy, but nowhere close to 18M a year.

      Maybe that will add a little perspective to the conversation.
      He did make it clear that he was making $50,000 $100,000 in net profits.
    • Profile picture of the author James Schramko
      Originally Posted by getsmartt View Post

      BS or no BS, one thing that is never made clear in any of these PPC pitches, and has been hinted at above, when they say they make 50K a day that is gross profit, more likely after costs his profit margin is probably closer to 5 - 10 K per day, still healthy, but nowhere close to 18M a year.

      Maybe that will add a little perspective to the conversation.
      50k - 100k NET is what they state. That is PROFIT.
  • Profile picture of the author Mike Hill
    Not defending this but you forgot the costs of the hotel rooms, the air fare for each guest and the food ... ooh and lets not forget about the bar tabs and such.

    I don't know about you but I would be one expensive guest as soon as that bar opened

    Mike Hill

    PS - Gary Halbert once talked about being realistic, even if you do make that kind of money no one in their right mind will ever be able to wrap their heads around it so always come out with a more modest and more believable figure.
    • Profile picture of the author Jeremy Kelsall
      Yeah, the bar tab alone would be ridiculous... I"m an expensive guest as well lol

      Originally Posted by Mike Hill View Post

      Not defending this but you forgot the costs of the hotel rooms, the air fare for each guest and the food ... ooh and lets not forget about the bar tabs and such.

      I don't know about you but I would be one expensive guest as soon as that bar opened

      Mike Hill
  • Profile picture of the author chris_surfrider
    Why not put that effort into doing more CPA stuff if it's so darn easy?
    Because making systematic money is boring.

    I don't make anywhere near what these guys are stating, but I can assure you once you reach a certain point (where you don't "need" more), money just kind of loses its "appeal", I guess?

    It's more satisfying to see people appreciate your BEST content.

    It's one thing to sit there all day making money with CPA. Or in my case, volumes of review sites, etc.

    But it's a whole other thing to see people go from broke to making thousands per month as a DIRECT result of your choosing to share your information.

    Sure, some people might be out for a quick buck.

    But usually their shallow personalities are tell-tale right from the start.

    I think when you see established entrepreneurs (think: Eben, Reese, Kern, etc.) revert back to the IM/B2B crowd, I think the main over-riding reason behind it is this:

    "Money is no longer an issue...

    ...so why am I doing BORING stuff - when I could still make a great living in an industry where I can be recognized, appreciated and see a truly fulfilling IMPACT?"


    This is seen in lots of different applications and walks of life.

    This is why so many movie actors are big on charities, adopting under-priveleged kids, forming non-profits, doing stuff like Bono, etc.

    And you see the same thing from industrialists, software billionaires, etc.

    Just something to think about...

    -Chris
    • Profile picture of the author Chris Lockwood
      Originally Posted by chris_surfrider View Post

      Because making systematic money is boring.

      I don't make anywhere near what these guys are stating, but I can assure you once you reach a certain point (where you don't "need" more), money just kind of loses its "appeal", I guess?


      This is why so many movie actors are big on charities, adopting under-priveleged kids, forming non-profits, doing stuff like Bono, etc.

      And you see the same thing from industrialists, software billionaires, etc.
      You're not seriously comparing this launch to doing charity work, are you? Are they giving laptops to homeless people and teaching them the system?

      If money lost its appeal, why do a big launch, which would seem to be intended to generate money? Retire or travel or something.
    • Profile picture of the author apollocreed
      Originally Posted by chris_surfrider View Post

      Because making systematic money is boring.

      I don't make anywhere near what these guys are stating, but I can assure you once you reach a certain point (where you don't "need" more), money just kind of loses its "appeal", I guess?

      It's more satisfying to see people appreciate your BEST content.

      It's one thing to sit there all day making money with CPA. Or in my case, volumes of review sites, etc.

      But it's a whole other thing to see people go from broke to making thousands per month as a DIRECT result of your choosing to share your information.

      Sure, some people might be out for a quick buck.

      But usually their shallow personalities are tell-tale right from the start.

      I think when you see established entrepreneurs (think: Eben, Reese, Kern, etc.) revert back to the IM/B2B crowd, I think the main over-riding reason behind it is this:

      "Money is no longer an issue...

      ...so why am I doing BORING stuff - when I could still make a great living in an industry where I can be recognized, appreciated and see a truly fulfilling IMPACT?"


      This is seen in lots of different applications and walks of life.

      This is why so many movie actors are big on charities, adopting under-priveleged kids, forming non-profits, doing stuff like Bono, etc.

      And you see the same thing from industrialists, software billionaires, etc.

      Just something to think about...

      -Chris
      LOL.
      So if he is releasing the information in order to get a "warm fuzzy feelin" from helping people, why charge $2000 for it? When Bill Gates donates funds for malaria pills or antiretro virals, he does not add a 2000% mark up on the pills. Imagine if Bill Gates opens a charity pharmacy somewhere in Africa and in it the pharmacist is told to "sell up" and offer the "really powerful super duper" malaria pills to anyone for an extra 50% of the purchase price of the malaria pills on sale. I do not think most people would consider that charity.

      That angle is B.S. If "established entrepreneurs" like Eben, Reese, Kern etc really did not care about money, they would not be charging thousands for their courses nor would they be pimping often times suspect products. It is all about money - and more power to them. In my experience, the richer a person is, the more obsessed with money they become. Go to any village in Africa and then to Manhattan if you want proof of this.

      I too, like many others on this forum also support charities in our own small ways, but that does not mean I do not want more money or that I have stopped actively pursuing it.
    • Profile picture of the author davebo
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  • Profile picture of the author eholmlund
    I was at the Vegas event. Neither myself or anyone I know paid $10k. They were selling some seats for $10k but I don't know if they sold any for that much. The invitees paid a small fee which probably covered the most of cost of the event.

    IMO they should not have pushed the $10k seminar angle in the sales letter because they didn't need to. It's obvious that they invited all the gurus to get social proof. They accomplished that mission, that should have been enough.

    As for some of the other questions above...

    There are a lot of "unknown" underground marketers making as much or more than Aymen, so that shouldn't be an issue. Besides that, some people on the "inside" of the PPC world in our IM niche have known Aymen for the past couple years. Gauher Chaudhry of PPC formula even vouched for Aymen's credibility in an email to his list, as Aymen was a customer of his.

    The other big question that keeps coming up is WHY would they release the secret info?

    Again, there are perfectly legitimate reasons. If Aymen is starting a CPA network, he can scale his earnings to the NEXT level by training a team of super affiliates to promote his offers using his own techniques.

    I think most of us in the IM crowd seriously underestimate the size of the global CPA business, and it's potential for growth.

    I can not nor will I defend them for the way this launch has been botched (on the affiliate side too), but I can tell you that they are real. Hope that helps.
  • Profile picture of the author AndyCamden
    It's very possible to make that much money in one day.... if you know the ins and outs of CPA marketing. Remember marketing always has a little bit of hype to stimulate your emotions and get you to buy, but it doesn't mean that they're not making great money. I'm currently researching CPA marketing and I'm finding that there are free methods that work, but the ones that really work are the ones that require a little bit of an investment upfront. Bottom line... There is a grip of money to be made in CPA marketing if you know what you are doing!
  • Profile picture of the author Steve Faber
    I have no idea weather he's full of it or not. I really don't care because I'm not buying it anyway. I just have one thought for those of you that are saying no one that's making 18 - 36 million a year would ever charge $100k to recoup their costs.

    Find me a traditional business with revenues of $18 - 36 million annually that would put on an event that cost 20, 50, or $100K (Who knows what he really paid, anyway. How many dancing girls were there?) and wouldn't try to recoup their costs in some way. Some businesses would take the promotional expense as a write off, but many would not eat the whole thing, just to write it off against their taxes later. If you're making a ton of money, you will do some things like this to reduce your corporate profits, but many can't really afford to do this. Maybe he can't really afford it. On the other hand maybe he want's to create another revenue stream. There's big money in seminars and events.
    My .02
  • Profile picture of the author dsiomtw
    That's bogus. Anyone with half a brain knows that 99.8% of people who buy this or any other course will not be "super successful" with it in the long run. To say that he is selling this course to train potential super affiliates for his own affiliate network is beyond stupid. Out of every 100 people buy this course, maybe 1 will have made any meaningful money 6 months later. Maybe 1 out of 1000 will become a real "super affiliate". If you are starting your own network you don't put on conferences and spend a ton of time developing and managing a product like this to train people to be your affiliates. Anyone with half a brain should see right through this. It's 110% pure BS.
    • Profile picture of the author eholmlund
      Originally Posted by dsiomtw View Post

      That's bogus. Anyone with half a brain knows that 99.8% of people who buy this or any other course will not be "super successful" with it in the long run. To say that he is selling this course to train potential super affiliates for his own affiliate network is beyond stupid. Out of every 100 people buy this course, maybe 1 will have made any meaningful money 6 months later. Maybe 1 out of 1000 will become a real "super affiliate". If you are starting your own network you don't put on conferences and spend a ton of time developing and managing a product like this to train people to be your affiliates. Anyone with half a brain should see right through this. It's 110% pure BS.
      Of course only a small percentage of customers will reach the most elite level. But that's totally ignorant to say he wouldn't develop a product and train people to become affiliates. Developing products that train people to be your affiliates (or reps, downline, whatever) is a business model that has thrived for a long time both in and outside of our industry.

      Also I never said that was his only motive... but it may be one of his motives.
    • Profile picture of the author James Schramko
      Originally Posted by dsiomtw View Post

      That's bogus. Anyone with half a brain knows that 99.8% of people who buy this or any other course will not be "super successful" with it in the long run. To say that he is selling this course to train potential super affiliates for his own affiliate network is beyond stupid. Out of every 100 people buy this course, maybe 1 will have made any meaningful money 6 months later. Maybe 1 out of 1000 will become a real "super affiliate". If you are starting your own network you don't put on conferences and spend a ton of time developing and managing a product like this to train people to be your affiliates. Anyone with half a brain should see right through this. It's 110% pure BS.
      about 79% of all businesses fail by the ten years mark (Startup Failure Rates — The REAL Numbers | Small Business Trends)

      so you could be quite general and say that in LIFE many people do not reach full potential.

      Who decides the portion that succeed? The customer. As long as the material is good don't blame the seller.
  • Profile picture of the author Glenn Grundberg
    This dudes story is totally believable... there is no way that he would have gotten the testimonials that he got from Eben Pagen, Mike Filsaime, and so on - if he wasn't legit.
    Heh heh heh heh heh heh heh...

    Kool aid, anyone?
    • Profile picture of the author Paul Myers
      A few possibilities that spring immediately to mind:

      He's full of it.

      He's bored and wants something fun.

      He wants to be a celebrity.

      He's an empire builder and can't stop himself.

      He has a specific target he wants to hit fast, and then retire.

      He's looking to start his CPA network with a bunch of high producers already in place, who will get him a lot of primo clients fast, with him getting a cut of all of those deals.

      Some combination of the above.

      Something else I haven't thought of.


      Paul
    • Profile picture of the author marcanthony
      Originally Posted by Glenn Grundberg View Post

      Heh heh heh heh heh heh heh...

      Kool aid, anyone?
      Yeah... I have Kool Aid - it's the same color as sarcasm.

      It's called unnecessary sarcasm - it's like a red-ish blue color
  • Profile picture of the author Lance K
    Well, "worrying" about covering the costs is exactly why some people become super successful. They aim to earn a positive return on all of their dealings. Even if they don't need to.

    Letting the "gurus" in for free. Yup...positive ROI via affiliate sales.

    Charging non-gurus who aren't bringing big lists $10,000. Yup...positive ROI via cash flow. And the conference was going to be put on anyway, so adding 10 people would add minimum cost. But the $100,000 probably paid for the whole thing and then some.

    How dare a truly rich person make a responsible business decision.

    People who think rich people don't "worry" about covering costs on things that are small potatos to them are only partly right. They don't "worry" about their money, they manage it. Which is why they make something of themselves. The keep their eye on the bottom line.


    It's the folks with the lottery winner's mentality that wouldn't "worry" about covering the costs. They would invite all the gurus & whoever else wanted to come, buy them new cars, and do whatever else they could to buy friends without any thought about how to GROW their net worth.

    They're programmed to spend. And that's why almost all lottery winners end up just as broke as before they won. It's why celebrities can piss tens of millions of dollars down their legs in no time and end up flat busted. They don't "worry" (a.k.a. MANAGE/INVEST) about their money.



    Did I seriously just have to explain that?



    Originally Posted by Chris Thompson View Post


    But here is what bugged me.

    He says he held a conference in Vegas and, I quote, " To help cover costs, we also allowed just 10 other people to pay to attend. They paid up to $10,000 for this 1-day seminar, and those seats sold out in 48 hours."

    What? So let me get this straight. This guy makes at least 50k per day and up to 100k per day. That works out to $18.25 million per year, at the low end of his range.

    So he decided to hold a conference in Vegas for a bunch of Gurus, and there was no cost to them ... but he also offered 10 spots at up to $10K each, to raise another $100k to "help cover costs".

    This means two things:

    1) A guy who makes $18M minimum per year is worried about recouping costs for a small conference, and is willing to invite total strangers to the conference in order to do this.

    2) We are to believe that a conference for 150 free guests plus 10 paid guests (160 people total) over a ONE DAY period cost over $100k to put on? Hello? The last time I rented a beautiful facility to accomodate that many people the cost was only a few thousand dollars. Nothing even close to 100k.
    • Profile picture of the author eholmlund
      Originally Posted by Lance K View Post

      How dare a truly rich person make a responsible business decision.

      People who think rich people don't "worry" about covering costs on things that are small potatos to them are only partly right. They don't "worry" about their money, they manage it. Which is why they make something of themselves. The keep their eye on the bottom line.
      True... in fact these guys are FREAKS when it comes to managing the numbers. They care about recouping their cost on a $0.50 click ;-)
  • Profile picture of the author Floyd Fisher
    Originally Posted by Chris Thompson View Post

    Hey everyone,

    I was reading the sales letter for the Arbitrage Conspiracy today. The guy claims to make 50k to 100k per day by using PPC to drive traffic to CPA offers. Apparently there is way more money in this than "selling stuff".

    The sales letter bugged me because he correctly brought up the question of "why would I teach this to you if it worked as well as I say it does, why not just keep it a secret". He goes on to explain that he's starting a CPA network himself, and wants to train people so they'll be his affilates on the network later. Fine.

    But here is what bugged me.

    He says he held a conference in Vegas and, I quote, " To help cover costs, we also allowed just 10 other people to pay to attend. They paid up to $10,000 for this 1-day seminar, and those seats sold out in 48 hours."

    What? So let me get this straight. This guy makes at least 50k per day and up to 100k per day. That works out to $18.25 million per year, at the low end of his range.

    So he decided to hold a conference in Vegas for a bunch of Gurus, and there was no cost to them ... but he also offered 10 spots at up to $10K each, to raise another $100k to "help cover costs".

    This means two things:

    1) A guy who makes $18M minimum per year is worried about recouping costs for a small conference, and is willing to invite total strangers to the conference in order to do this.

    2) We are to believe that a conference for 150 free guests plus 10 paid guests (160 people total) over a ONE DAY period cost over $100k to put on? Hello? The last time I rented a beautiful facility to accomodate that many people the cost was only a few thousand dollars. Nothing even close to 100k.


    So, my warrior friends ... I feel like calling HUGE B.S. on this guy's sales letter, but before I do, I'm interested in your thoughts.

    Call me curious.
    He may make 18-36 million a year, but how much of it does he actually get to keep?

    Remember profit=sales-costs of doing business.

    If he's making 18 million, but his costs are 17.9 million, he's only keeping about 100k in profits.

    Words to live by.
  • Profile picture of the author Steven Carl Kelly
    Nobody can answer my question about the CPA network?
  • Profile picture of the author Steven Carl Kelly
    Ok, never mind, I found it. It turns out that according to the information I could find, CJ is the largest CPA network. Their TOTAL sales in 2007 were $9 million.

    These arbitrage conspiracy guys are taking in DOUBLE per year what the largest CPA network in the land is taking in.

    Amazing!

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