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Old 12-11-2008, 07:07 PM   #1
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Default Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

Hey everyone,

I was reading the sales letter for the Arbitrage Conspiracy today. The guy claims to make 50k to 100k per day by using PPC to drive traffic to CPA offers. Apparently there is way more money in this than "selling stuff".

The sales letter bugged me because he correctly brought up the question of "why would I teach this to you if it worked as well as I say it does, why not just keep it a secret". He goes on to explain that he's starting a CPA network himself, and wants to train people so they'll be his affilates on the network later. Fine.

But here is what bugged me.

He says he held a conference in Vegas and, I quote, "
To help cover costs, we also allowed just 10 other people to pay to attend. They paid up to $10,000 for this 1-day seminar, and those seats sold out in 48 hours."

What? So let me get this straight. This guy makes at least 50k per day and up to 100k per day. That works out to $18.25 million per year, at the low end of his range.

So he decided to hold a conference in Vegas for a bunch of Gurus, and there was no cost to them ... but he also offered 10 spots at up to $10K each, to raise another $100k to "help cover costs".

This means two things:

1) A guy who makes $18M minimum per year is worried about recouping costs for a small conference, and is willing to invite total strangers to the conference in order to do this.

2) We are to believe that a conference for 150 free guests plus 10 paid guests (160 people total) over a ONE DAY period cost over $100k to put on? Hello? The last time I rented a beautiful facility to accomodate that many people the cost was only a few thousand dollars. Nothing even close to 100k.


So, my warrior friends ... I feel like calling HUGE B.S. on this guy's sales letter, but before I do, I'm interested in your thoughts.

Call me curious.

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Old 12-11-2008, 07:12 PM   #2
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

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2) We are to believe that a conference for 150 free guests plus 10 paid guests (160 people total) over a ONE DAY period cost over $100k to put on? Hello? The last time I rented a beautiful facility to accomodate that many people the cost was only a few thousand dollars. Nothing even close to 100k.
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Old 12-11-2008, 07:13 PM   #3
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

It's all about leverage and calling in the favors.

I respect many of the people in those videos but make no mistake you won't be competing against Eben or half those people in the CPA markets. I'll put my house on that.

Somebody on my private forum really put CPA into perspective today.

The real $2k secret - make more money then you spend - simple economics.

That is all there is to it. You need a bank roll for this business as well. I'm not sure people understand that it costs money to make money in CPA. I know this. I've done it. I wrote a report on CPA last year cause I had small time success. But it cost money to make money. IE. Spend $1000 - make $1200

Is there money to be made? 100%. No doubt.

Are Aymen & Emmanuel really making a boatload of cash? No doubt. Not one doubt. The cheques are real and that is genuine success.

Can success be found in CPA Marketing? Yes.

Will it happen for most? No.


The sad part of IM is that too many people are walking around like sheep with the wool pulled over their eyes.

Read the comments on the Arbitrage Conspiracy and you'll find people who are broke & have lost jobs that just "know that arbitrage conspiracy will set them free" all because Eben & Brad & Mike & yada & yada & yada said it would make their own businesses millions of dollars.

They just know in their hearts "this time it will be different...." They just know that even after buying this big launch that promised success and that big launch that promised success, this time it will be different.

Yet, they already spent 10k over the past two years on other products that promised the exact same thing.

It's a sad state of affairs no doubt.

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Old 12-11-2008, 07:26 PM   #4
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

Perhaps they simply meant the cost of the event & the product launch.

When you take into account, affiliate manager, product development, top
copywriter, dedicated servers and tons of other things - $100k doesn't
sound to far fetched to cover costs.

Big launches like this don't happen on shoe string budgets.

Just my 2 cents





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Old 12-11-2008, 07:26 PM   #5
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

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Originally Posted by Mr. Write View Post
Anybody claiming to make that much money is a liar. Anybody who believes him is an even bigger fool.
There are many that do make that and more, but for every $1 the make in arbitrage probably cost them 50-75 cents in PPC.
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Old 12-11-2008, 07:38 PM   #6
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

There is just no rational reason to believe that this guy needs to "cover his costs" of 100k (even if they could possibly be that high) when he has been supposedly making over $18M per year. No reason to believe this at all.

I think the only part that makes it all "almost OK" is that there is a refund guarantee. If you learn enough to make a profit (above your cost of training) then I think it's worth every penny. If you learn that you need $10k to bankroll the project, and that you could lose money easily, then I'd ask for a refund in a second. No question.

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Old 12-11-2008, 07:41 PM   #7
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

Some more fuzzy math: if the 12-week course is only $1997, why was the 1-day event $10,000? I would hope a 12-week course has more than 8 hours worth of content in it.

Could it be that nobody actually paid $10,000 to attend? Did anyone see it advertised?

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Old 12-11-2008, 07:48 PM   #8
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

It's not B.S. at all...

I believe that the guy behind the program is planning on starting his own CPA network...

So he hooked up with some guru's that have large lists...

If enough people actually decide to implement what they learn using his product... He will be able to start his own CPA network with a large group of affiliates that are already sold on his methods.

That's why he would be willing to give the info away.

It may seem crazy to some of you but - there are people that make even more than $100,000 per day.

This dudes story is totally believable... there is no way that he would have gotten the testimonials that he got from Eben Pagen, Mike Filsaime, and so on - if he wasn't legit.
 
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Old 12-11-2008, 07:51 PM   #9
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

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Originally Posted by Chris Thompson View Post
So, my warrior friends ... I feel like calling HUGE B.S. on this guy's sales letter, but before I do, I'm interested in your thoughts.
I agree. Doing both online marketing as well as doing my own live seminars, his numbers don't make any sense.

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Old 12-11-2008, 07:52 PM   #10
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

The thing that I don't quite understand is this - there are not an unlimited supply of CPA offers floating around at any given time like there are affiliate products.

Why would I want to jump into competing with all of the other students of this course over the few hundred CPA offers available at any given time?

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Old 12-11-2008, 07:54 PM   #11
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

Quote:
There is just no rational reason to believe that this guy needs to "cover his costs" of 100k (even if they could possibly be that high) when he has been supposedly making over $18M per year. No reason to believe this at all.

Am not here to defend there action or pass judgement on the product or
themselves because I just don't know, I haven't seen the product or met
them.

However, from a business point of view - what they have done would make
perfect sense no matter how rich you are. The minimum 18m a year is profit
from there existing business, right?


What's wrong with raising capital upfront for a new business venture? It makes
perfect sense IMO - No upfront risk.





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Old 12-11-2008, 07:55 PM   #12
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

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Originally Posted by Chris Lockwood View Post
Could it be that nobody actually paid $10,000 to attend? Did anyone see it advertised?
Did it have the world famous qualifier "up to" in front of 10k? The whole thing stinks. If I was making $50k per day, I'd be done developing new stuff for quite some time. In fact, if I could sustain that for a year, I could go on for the rest of my life without ever earning another dime.

I'd like to see this sales page.

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Old 12-11-2008, 07:57 PM   #13
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

I have a question: I don't do any CPA stuff. What's the biggest CPA network out there?

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Old 12-11-2008, 08:04 PM   #14
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

BS or no BS, one thing that is never made clear in any of these PPC pitches, and has been hinted at above, when they say they make 50K a day that is gross profit, more likely after costs his profit margin is probably closer to 5 - 10 K per day, still healthy, but nowhere close to 18M a year.

Maybe that will add a little perspective to the conversation.

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Old 12-11-2008, 08:06 PM   #15
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Write View Post
Anybody claiming to make that much money is a liar. Anybody who believes him is an even bigger fool.
Now that's worth a laugh...

$100k a day is roughly 36.5 Million per year.

That's big money, but there's a LOT of entrepreneurs in virtually every major industry that see this kind of income.

Just because YOU don't see "how" this is possible, doesn't mean it's impossible.

Also, CPA is all about brokering traffic.

It's not as passive as typical aff promotion because you always have to be checking to see if offers expire, or if there's a daily cap, etc.

It works GREAT for affiliates who can quickly move traffic, though. Big mailers, people with some serious PPC funding and authority sites with tons of traffic can do very well with CPA. To the tune of millions a year.

This is the mainstream marketplace.

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Old 12-11-2008, 08:06 PM   #16
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

Quote:
Originally Posted by marcanthony View Post
there is no way that he would have gotten the testimonials that he got from Eben Pagen, Mike Filsaime, and so on - if he wasn't legit.
I'm not saying his story isn't true - but history has not proven that testimonials from big gurus always mean a product is legit. I'm just sayin'

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Old 12-11-2008, 08:08 PM   #17
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

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Originally Posted by getsmartt View Post
BS or no BS, one thing that is never made clear in any of these PPC pitches, and has been hinted at above, when they say they make 50K a day that is gross profit, more likely after costs his profit margin is probably closer to 5 - 10 K per day, still healthy, but nowhere close to 18M a year.

Maybe that will add a little perspective to the conversation.
He did make it clear that he was making $50,000 $100,000 in net profits.
 
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Old 12-11-2008, 08:12 PM   #18
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I'm not saying his story isn't true - but history has not proven that testimonials from big gurus always mean a product is legit. I'm just sayin'
My point was that they wouldn't just give anyone a testimonial...
 
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Old 12-11-2008, 08:20 PM   #19
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

I just think that skepticism is at an all time high these days...

I don't mind skepticism - hell, I understand why people may be harder to convince...

What worries me is where the skepticism is coming from...

Why doesn't this guys numbers sound legit? Is it because they don't make sense to you? Or... is it that you don't think that you can do it?

The truth is that there are people out there that would be in a bad mood if all they made was $36 million a year.

If all I made was $5,000 in a month - I would have to seriously take a step back and look at my business to see what I was doing wrong...
 
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Old 12-11-2008, 08:25 PM   #20
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

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My point was that they wouldn't just give anyone a testimonial...
Sure. Trade a testimonial for a cut of the profits.

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Old 12-11-2008, 08:27 PM   #21
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

Really? Thats weird....I see the same big names on almost every product launch...I hear the same big names endorsing the same big names new product every time I watch a video or listen to some type of live show on the internet.

I'm not saying there is any kind of conspiracy, because I think most products that come out, even if they are not all they are cracked up to be, add some good value to my business as well as to others.

I'm just saying that there seems to be a ton of "hey, it's your turn to be on my sales page" going on...Do I know it for a fact? Nope, just making an observation.


Quote:
Originally Posted by marcanthony View Post
My point was that they wouldn't just give anyone a testimonial...

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Old 12-11-2008, 08:43 PM   #22
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

Quote:
Originally Posted by marcanthony View Post
Why doesn't this guys numbers sound legit? Is it because they don't make sense to you? Or... is it that you don't think that you can do it?

The truth is that there are people out there that would be in a bad mood if all they made was $36 million a year.
How many 1 or 2 person operations make $36 million a year (not counting entertainers or athletes)?

The skepticism comes in when you calculate what this launch would bring in and compare it to what they are already supposedly making. Why go to the trouble just to make another 1-2 weeks income? Why not put that effort into doing more CPA stuff if it's so darn easy?

Then throw in the lack of proof and the fact that nobody heard of these people until now and that some who attended in Vegas said it was just basic info...

It's funny how a $37 ebook will get more scrutiny from some people than something like this- it's as if as long as the claims are big enough, it must be true.

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Old 12-11-2008, 08:56 PM   #23
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

Not defending this but you forgot the costs of the hotel rooms, the air fare for each guest and the food ... ooh and lets not forget about the bar tabs and such.

I don't know about you but I would be one expensive guest as soon as that bar opened

Mike Hill

PS - Gary Halbert once talked about being realistic, even if you do make that kind of money no one in their right mind will ever be able to wrap their heads around it so always come out with a more modest and more believable figure.
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Old 12-11-2008, 09:00 PM   #24
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

Yeah, the bar tab alone would be ridiculous... I"m an expensive guest as well lol

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Not defending this but you forgot the costs of the hotel rooms, the air fare for each guest and the food ... ooh and lets not forget about the bar tabs and such.

I don't know about you but I would be one expensive guest as soon as that bar opened

Mike Hill

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Old 12-11-2008, 09:06 PM   #25
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

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Yeah, the bar tab alone would be ridiculous... I"m an expensive guest as well lol
That makes three of us. lol



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Old 12-11-2008, 09:07 PM   #26
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

Quote:
Why not put that effort into doing more CPA stuff if it's so darn easy?
Because making systematic money is boring.

I don't make anywhere near what these guys are stating, but I can assure you once you reach a certain point (where you don't "need" more), money just kind of loses its "appeal", I guess?

It's more satisfying to see people appreciate your BEST content.

It's one thing to sit there all day making money with CPA. Or in my case, volumes of review sites, etc.

But it's a whole other thing to see people go from broke to making thousands per month as a DIRECT result of your choosing to share your information.

Sure, some people might be out for a quick buck.

But usually their shallow personalities are tell-tale right from the start.

I think when you see established entrepreneurs (think: Eben, Reese, Kern, etc.) revert back to the IM/B2B crowd, I think the main over-riding reason behind it is this:

"Money is no longer an issue...

...so why am I doing BORING stuff - when I could still make a great living in an industry where I can be recognized, appreciated and see a truly fulfilling IMPACT?"


This is seen in lots of different applications and walks of life.

This is why so many movie actors are big on charities, adopting under-priveleged kids, forming non-profits, doing stuff like Bono, etc.

And you see the same thing from industrialists, software billionaires, etc.

Just something to think about...

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Old 12-11-2008, 09:08 PM   #27
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

I was at the Vegas event. Neither myself or anyone I know paid $10k. They were selling some seats for $10k but I don't know if they sold any for that much. The invitees paid a small fee which probably covered the most of cost of the event.

IMO they should not have pushed the $10k seminar angle in the sales letter because they didn't need to. It's obvious that they invited all the gurus to get social proof. They accomplished that mission, that should have been enough.

As for some of the other questions above...

There are a lot of "unknown" underground marketers making as much or more than Aymen, so that shouldn't be an issue. Besides that, some people on the "inside" of the PPC world in our IM niche have known Aymen for the past couple years. Gauher Chaudhry of PPC formula even vouched for Aymen's credibility in an email to his list, as Aymen was a customer of his.

The other big question that keeps coming up is WHY would they release the secret info?

Again, there are perfectly legitimate reasons. If Aymen is starting a CPA network, he can scale his earnings to the NEXT level by training a team of super affiliates to promote his offers using his own techniques.

I think most of us in the IM crowd seriously underestimate the size of the global CPA business, and it's potential for growth.

I can not nor will I defend them for the way this launch has been botched (on the affiliate side too), but I can tell you that they are real. Hope that helps.

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Old 12-11-2008, 09:20 PM   #28
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

It's very possible to make that much money in one day.... if you know the ins and outs of CPA marketing. Remember marketing always has a little bit of hype to stimulate your emotions and get you to buy, but it doesn't mean that they're not making great money. I'm currently researching CPA marketing and I'm finding that there are free methods that work, but the ones that really work are the ones that require a little bit of an investment upfront. Bottom line... There is a grip of money to be made in CPA marketing if you know what you are doing!
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Old 12-11-2008, 09:21 PM   #29
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

I have no idea weather he's full of it or not. I really don't care because I'm not buying it anyway. I just have one thought for those of you that are saying no one that's making 18 - 36 million a year would ever charge $100k to recoup their costs.

Find me a traditional business with revenues of $18 - 36 million annually that would put on an event that cost 20, 50, or $100K (Who knows what he really paid, anyway. How many dancing girls were there?) and wouldn't try to recoup their costs in some way. Some businesses would take the promotional expense as a write off, but many would not eat the whole thing, just to write it off against their taxes later. If you're making a ton of money, you will do some things like this to reduce your corporate profits, but many can't really afford to do this. Maybe he can't really afford it. On the other hand maybe he want's to create another revenue stream. There's big money in seminars and events.
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Old 12-11-2008, 09:23 PM   #30
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

That's bogus. Anyone with half a brain knows that 99.8% of people who buy this or any other course will not be "super successful" with it in the long run. To say that he is selling this course to train potential super affiliates for his own affiliate network is beyond stupid. Out of every 100 people buy this course, maybe 1 will have made any meaningful money 6 months later. Maybe 1 out of 1000 will become a real "super affiliate". If you are starting your own network you don't put on conferences and spend a ton of time developing and managing a product like this to train people to be your affiliates. Anyone with half a brain should see right through this. It's 110% pure BS.
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Old 12-11-2008, 09:29 PM   #31
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

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This dudes story is totally believable... there is no way that he would have gotten the testimonials that he got from Eben Pagen, Mike Filsaime, and so on - if he wasn't legit.
Heh heh heh heh heh heh heh...

Kool aid, anyone?


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Old 12-11-2008, 09:39 PM   #32
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

A few possibilities that spring immediately to mind:

He's full of it.

He's bored and wants something fun.

He wants to be a celebrity.

He's an empire builder and can't stop himself.

He has a specific target he wants to hit fast, and then retire.

He's looking to start his CPA network with a bunch of high producers already in place, who will get him a lot of primo clients fast, with him getting a cut of all of those deals.

Some combination of the above.

Something else I haven't thought of.


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Old 12-11-2008, 09:45 PM   #33
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

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That's bogus. Anyone with half a brain knows that 99.8% of people who buy this or any other course will not be "super successful" with it in the long run. To say that he is selling this course to train potential super affiliates for his own affiliate network is beyond stupid. Out of every 100 people buy this course, maybe 1 will have made any meaningful money 6 months later. Maybe 1 out of 1000 will become a real "super affiliate". If you are starting your own network you don't put on conferences and spend a ton of time developing and managing a product like this to train people to be your affiliates. Anyone with half a brain should see right through this. It's 110% pure BS.
Of course only a small percentage of customers will reach the most elite level. But that's totally ignorant to say he wouldn't develop a product and train people to become affiliates. Developing products that train people to be your affiliates (or reps, downline, whatever) is a business model that has thrived for a long time both in and outside of our industry.

Also I never said that was his only motive... but it may be one of his motives.

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Old 12-11-2008, 09:49 PM   #34
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

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Because making systematic money is boring.

I don't make anywhere near what these guys are stating, but I can assure you once you reach a certain point (where you don't "need" more), money just kind of loses its "appeal", I guess?


This is why so many movie actors are big on charities, adopting under-priveleged kids, forming non-profits, doing stuff like Bono, etc.

And you see the same thing from industrialists, software billionaires, etc.
You're not seriously comparing this launch to doing charity work, are you? Are they giving laptops to homeless people and teaching them the system?

If money lost its appeal, why do a big launch, which would seem to be intended to generate money? Retire or travel or something.

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Old 12-11-2008, 09:51 PM   #35
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

Well, "worrying" about covering the costs is exactly why some people become super successful. They aim to earn a positive return on all of their dealings. Even if they don't need to.

Letting the "gurus" in for free. Yup...positive ROI via affiliate sales.

Charging non-gurus who aren't bringing big lists $10,000. Yup...positive ROI via cash flow. And the conference was going to be put on anyway, so adding 10 people would add minimum cost. But the $100,000 probably paid for the whole thing and then some.

How dare a truly rich person make a responsible business decision.

People who think rich people don't "worry" about covering costs on things that are small potatos to them are only partly right. They don't "worry" about their money, they manage it. Which is why they make something of themselves. The keep their eye on the bottom line.


It's the folks with the lottery winner's mentality that wouldn't "worry" about covering the costs. They would invite all the gurus & whoever else wanted to come, buy them new cars, and do whatever else they could to buy friends without any thought about how to GROW their net worth.

They're programmed to spend. And that's why almost all lottery winners end up just as broke as before they won. It's why celebrities can piss tens of millions of dollars down their legs in no time and end up flat busted. They don't "worry" (a.k.a. MANAGE/INVEST) about their money.



Did I seriously just have to explain that?



Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Thompson View Post

But here is what bugged me.

He says he held a conference in Vegas and, I quote, " To help cover costs, we also allowed just 10 other people to pay to attend. They paid up to $10,000 for this 1-day seminar, and those seats sold out in 48 hours."

What? So let me get this straight. This guy makes at least 50k per day and up to 100k per day. That works out to $18.25 million per year, at the low end of his range.

So he decided to hold a conference in Vegas for a bunch of Gurus, and there was no cost to them ... but he also offered 10 spots at up to $10K each, to raise another $100k to "help cover costs".

This means two things:

1) A guy who makes $18M minimum per year is worried about recouping costs for a small conference, and is willing to invite total strangers to the conference in order to do this.

2) We are to believe that a conference for 150 free guests plus 10 paid guests (160 people total) over a ONE DAY period cost over $100k to put on? Hello? The last time I rented a beautiful facility to accomodate that many people the cost was only a few thousand dollars. Nothing even close to 100k.

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Old 12-11-2008, 09:54 PM   #36
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

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Because making systematic money is boring.

I don't make anywhere near what these guys are stating, but I can assure you once you reach a certain point (where you don't "need" more), money just kind of loses its "appeal", I guess?

It's more satisfying to see people appreciate your BEST content.

It's one thing to sit there all day making money with CPA. Or in my case, volumes of review sites, etc.

But it's a whole other thing to see people go from broke to making thousands per month as a DIRECT result of your choosing to share your information.

Sure, some people might be out for a quick buck.

But usually their shallow personalities are tell-tale right from the start.

I think when you see established entrepreneurs (think: Eben, Reese, Kern, etc.) revert back to the IM/B2B crowd, I think the main over-riding reason behind it is this:

"Money is no longer an issue...

...so why am I doing BORING stuff - when I could still make a great living in an industry where I can be recognized, appreciated and see a truly fulfilling IMPACT?"


This is seen in lots of different applications and walks of life.

This is why so many movie actors are big on charities, adopting under-priveleged kids, forming non-profits, doing stuff like Bono, etc.

And you see the same thing from industrialists, software billionaires, etc.

Just something to think about...

-Chris
LOL.
So if he is releasing the information in order to get a "warm fuzzy feelin" from helping people, why charge $2000 for it? When Bill Gates donates funds for malaria pills or antiretro virals, he does not add a 2000% mark up on the pills. Imagine if Bill Gates opens a charity pharmacy somewhere in Africa and in it the pharmacist is told to "sell up" and offer the "really powerful super duper" malaria pills to anyone for an extra 50% of the purchase price of the malaria pills on sale. I do not think most people would consider that charity.

That angle is B.S. If "established entrepreneurs" like Eben, Reese, Kern etc really did not care about money, they would not be charging thousands for their courses nor would they be pimping often times suspect products. It is all about money - and more power to them. In my experience, the richer a person is, the more obsessed with money they become. Go to any village in Africa and then to Manhattan if you want proof of this.

I too, like many others on this forum also support charities in our own small ways, but that does not mean I do not want more money or that I have stopped actively pursuing it.
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Old 12-11-2008, 09:56 PM   #37
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

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How dare a truly rich person make a responsible business decision.

People who think rich people don't "worry" about covering costs on things that are small potatos to them are only partly right. They don't "worry" about their money, they manage it. Which is why they make something of themselves. The keep their eye on the bottom line.
True... in fact these guys are FREAKS when it comes to managing the numbers. They care about recouping their cost on a $0.50 click ;-)

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Old 12-11-2008, 09:57 PM   #38
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

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Hey everyone,

I was reading the sales letter for the Arbitrage Conspiracy today. The guy claims to make 50k to 100k per day by using PPC to drive traffic to CPA offers. Apparently there is way more money in this than "selling stuff".

The sales letter bugged me because he correctly brought up the question of "why would I teach this to you if it worked as well as I say it does, why not just keep it a secret". He goes on to explain that he's starting a CPA network himself, and wants to train people so they'll be his affilates on the network later. Fine.

But here is what bugged me.

He says he held a conference in Vegas and, I quote, " To help cover costs, we also allowed just 10 other people to pay to attend. They paid up to $10,000 for this 1-day seminar, and those seats sold out in 48 hours."

What? So let me get this straight. This guy makes at least 50k per day and up to 100k per day. That works out to $18.25 million per year, at the low end of his range.

So he decided to hold a conference in Vegas for a bunch of Gurus, and there was no cost to them ... but he also offered 10 spots at up to $10K each, to raise another $100k to "help cover costs".

This means two things:

1) A guy who makes $18M minimum per year is worried about recouping costs for a small conference, and is willing to invite total strangers to the conference in order to do this.

2) We are to believe that a conference for 150 free guests plus 10 paid guests (160 people total) over a ONE DAY period cost over $100k to put on? Hello? The last time I rented a beautiful facility to accomodate that many people the cost was only a few thousand dollars. Nothing even close to 100k.


So, my warrior friends ... I feel like calling HUGE B.S. on this guy's sales letter, but before I do, I'm interested in your thoughts.

Call me curious.
He may make 18-36 million a year, but how much of it does he actually get to keep?

Remember profit=sales-costs of doing business.

If he's making 18 million, but his costs are 17.9 million, he's only keeping about 100k in profits.

Words to live by.

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Old 12-11-2008, 09:59 PM   #39
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

Quote:
Well, "worrying" about covering the costs is exactly why some people become super successful. They aim to earn a positive return on all of their dealings. Even if they don't need to.
Quote:
How dare a truly rich person make a responsible business decision.

People who think rich people don't "worry" about covering costs on things that are small potatos to them are only partly right. They don't "worry" about their money, they manage it. Which is why they make something of themselves. The keep their eye on the bottom line.
Lance, spot on.

You have said what i was trying to to express and more, but i couldn't put into the right words.


Business is business no matter how rich you are...



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Old 12-11-2008, 11:19 PM   #40
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

Nobody can answer my question about the CPA network?

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Old 12-11-2008, 11:25 PM   #41
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

Ok, never mind, I found it. It turns out that according to the information I could find, CJ is the largest CPA network. Their TOTAL sales in 2007 were $9 million.

These arbitrage conspiracy guys are taking in DOUBLE per year what the largest CPA network in the land is taking in.

Amazing!

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Old 12-11-2008, 11:27 PM   #42
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

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Heh heh heh heh heh heh heh...

Kool aid, anyone?
Yeah... I have Kool Aid - it's the same color as sarcasm.

It's called unnecessary sarcasm - it's like a red-ish blue color
 
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Old 12-11-2008, 11:29 PM   #43
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

The last few responses to my "charity" post are pretty amusing.

Of course they do it for the money.

I'm not saying otherwise.

I AM saying that it is enjoyable to teach stuff that you're good at and actually have an interest in.

As much as you might be passionate about email-submit offers for guessing Sarah Palin's IQ, sometimes it's fulfilling to teach what you're really good at.

But then what the hell do I know...

I don't know the first fricken thing about doing well in niche markets, finding it a little boring, and enjoying myself in the IM niche at the same time to keep myself more engaged.

Not a clue.

So here - I'll join in like a good little parrot:

"That's right guys - for sure, they're obviously so full of ****. First of all it's impossible to make that much (nobody does - how could they?), and why would they ever want to share this?"

I know - here's a novel idea:

How about you actually TRY the strategy that's already clearly laid out in their free teaser guide?

I've made good cash with CPA in the past.

It can happen quickly (and disappear just as quickly).

I mean - of course it can't.

It's all a load of **** and you know it.

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Old 12-11-2008, 11:36 PM   #44
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Thompson View Post
Hey everyone,
To help cover costs, we also allowed just 10 other people to pay to attend. They paid up to $10,000 for this 1-day seminar, and those seats sold out in 48 hours."

What? So let me get this straight. This guy makes at least 50k per day and up to 100k per day. That works out to $18.25 million per year, at the low end of his range.

So he decided to hold a conference in Vegas for a bunch of Gurus, and there was no cost to them ... but he also offered 10 spots at up to $10K each, to raise another $100k to "help cover costs".

This means two things:

1) A guy who makes $18M minimum per year is worried about recouping costs for a small conference, and is willing to invite total strangers to the conference in order to do this.
[/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE]
2) We are to believe that a conference for 150 free guests plus 10 paid guests (160 people total) over a ONE DAY period cost over $100k to put on? Hello? The last time I rented a beautiful facility to accomodate that many people the cost was only a few thousand dollars. Nothing even close to 100k.


So, my warrior friends ... I feel like calling HUGE B.S. on this guy's sales letter, but before I do, I'm interested in your thoughts.

Call me curious.

Option 1) read the sales letter. He explained why the meeting came about. He had to introduce himself to the IM community. Makes sense to cover some costs wouldn't you?

Option 2) only a few thousand dollars to HOST 150 people in Vegas?

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Old 12-11-2008, 11:37 PM   #45
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

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i agree, its all bs; only a true idiot will believe into this ****. if i was making 50k a day the last thing i would do is waste my time doing what he does
You won't have to worry about making 50k a day with that mindset. It will never happen.

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Old 12-11-2008, 11:39 PM   #46
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

From my experience with CPA, I just can't see how you could make that much consistently day in and day out, on that level. As others mentioned, there just aren't that many offers out there, and when you find one that works for you, it may be a few days till its pulled and you have to find another.

It seems as though there is this expectation that you will overhype your product in order for it to be successful.

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Old 12-11-2008, 11:39 PM   #47
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

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Originally Posted by Mr. Write View Post
Anybody claiming to make that much money is a liar. Anybody who believes him is an even bigger fool.
You are misguided. There are books you can read to expand your thinking capacity.

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Old 12-11-2008, 11:41 PM   #48
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

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Originally Posted by freudianslip27 View Post
From my experience with CPA, I just can't see how you could make that much consistently day in and day out, on that level. As others mentioned, there just aren't that many offers out there, and when you find one that works for you, it may be a few days till its pulled and you have to find another.

It seems as though there is this expectation that you will overhype your product in order for it to be successful.

Matt
Matt he actually tells you on the sales page,

You can bid on every single product in the store for Home Depot etc.... Nobody can cover every possible bid for the unlimited available offers.

The only limits are time, talent, ability for automation, creativity, desire etc...

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Old 12-11-2008, 11:43 PM   #49
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Lockwood View Post
Some more fuzzy math: if the 12-week course is only $1997, why was the 1-day event $10,000? I would hope a 12-week course has more than 8 hours worth of content in it.

Could it be that nobody actually paid $10,000 to attend? Did anyone see it advertised?
Take into account that people at the event had an inside run on promoting. They could easily re-coup that investment by applying the material and then becoming an affiliate for the launch.

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Old 12-11-2008, 11:45 PM   #50
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Default Re: Fun with math - the Arbitrage Conspiracy

Quote:
Originally Posted by melanied View Post
The thing that I don't quite understand is this - there are not an unlimited supply of CPA offers floating around at any given time like there are affiliate products.

Why would I want to jump into competing with all of the other students of this course over the few hundred CPA offers available at any given time?

There is an unlimited supply if you are creative. It is essentially lead generation. If you can do a deal with any business that wants leads you can set up your own CPA style program with them.

Education, property, finance, automotive etc.....

Buy traffic >> Sell Leads

It is a HUGE business and unlimited in scale.

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