Don't Be Quick to Say the Mobile Will Grow Exponentially

13 years ago

Nah, I don't believe it for a second. People won't have much of a choice unless they want to remain unconnected from the rest of the world. The smartphone (which is basically a portable PC) is going to be the next big movement in technology and people won't be able to afford to NOT have one. Prices of phones and data will continue to drop as the technology becomes more mainstream anyway.

Don't believe everything you read I guess. It's coming and it's coming in a BIG way.

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myob 13 years ago

SMS texting is already becoming a significant component of commercial advertising and cell phones have a nearly ubiquitous presence. The mobile marketing base has penetrated nearly 30% of the US market and is at least 10% higher in other markets such as Asia and western Europe. You don't need exponential growth to make a killing here.
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RemingtonSteele

13 years ago

Originally Posted by WillR

It's coming and it's coming in a BIG way.

...says the guy who is selling a "Mobile Business in a Box."

The mobile smartphone is the new computer - there is no denying that. In a year or two there will be more people accessing the Internet from mobile devices than from regular PC's. This number is only going to grow over the next decade.

A phone with Internet browsing capabilities might be convenient for some purposes (finding a restaurant in an unfamiliar part of town), but I can't envision anyone being able to get serious work done on a mobile phone. To say that the "mobile smartphone is the new computer" is laughable.

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CDarklock

13 years ago

Originally Posted by RemingtonSteele

...says the guy who is selling a "Mobile Business in a Box."

If you honestly believed mobile was the next big thing, wouldn't YOU be selling something like that?

I can't envision anyone being able to get serious work done on a mobile phone.

Colin Theriot has made actual saleable products entirely on his iPhone. I can see that becoming more and more common over time; there was a time it was flat-out impossible, but today it's just mildly inconvenient. It's not hard to imagine that in five or ten more years, it will be perfectly sensible to use your phone as your computer.

I can imagine having a little docking station at your desk where you plug in your phone and it hooks up to a full-size keyboard, mouse, and monitor. When you're leaving the house, you just pull it out of the dock and stick it in your pocket. After all, it's got the raw processing power of a P3 machine, and with unlimited cloud-based storage there's no need for the bulky disk drives. It wouldn't replace EVERY desktop workstation, but for the rank and file business user it could easily handle most daily tasks.

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RemingtonSteele

13 years ago

Originally Posted by CDarklock

If you honestly believed mobile was the next big thing, wouldn't YOU be selling something like that?

In a word, no. I prefer to enter evergreen markets rather than chase trends (or get in front of them, however you want to look at it). One might argue that a currently trendy market could eventually turn into an evergreen market, but I'm not interested in waiting around for that to happen.

Colin Theriot has made actual saleable products entirely on his iPhone. I can see that becoming more and more common over time; there was a time it was flat-out impossible, but today it's just mildly inconvenient. It's not hard to imagine that in five or ten more years, it will be perfectly sensible to use your phone as your computer.

Good for him. For me personally, it would be a lot worse than "mildly inconvenient." To give you an idea, back in my cubicle days, I was doing web design and programming on a 21" monitor, which eventually bit the dust. The company that I was working for downsized me to a 15" monitor because they didn't want to pay for a larger one. It wasn't fun.

I can imagine having a little docking station at your desk where you plug in your phone and it hooks up to a full-size keyboard, mouse, and monitor. When you're leaving the house, you just pull it out of the dock and stick it in your pocket. After all, it's got the raw processing power of a P3 machine, and with unlimited cloud-based storage there's no need for the bulky disk drives.

Your "little docking station" idea is nice, but that only reinforces the need to keep full-sized hardware around, doesn't it?

Cloud storage (and cloud computing) is yet another example of "the next big thing" that I think will be slower to catch on (especially among business owners with limited budgets and concerns about data control, privacy, and security) than purveyors of cloud solutions would like us to believe, but that's a topic of discussion for another time.

With regard to processing power, after working (and playing) on a quad-core machine with 8 GB RAM, I don't think I would have the patience for anything comparable to a P3. Even if one could plug his or her phone into a docking station so that it would be physically easier to get things done, it's doubtful that a device of that size would ever be able to run serious programs due to the storage and processing requirements. There are huge sections of the computing market whose needs cannot be accommodated by smartphones, tablet PCs, and the like.

It wouldn't replace EVERY desktop workstation, but for the rank and file business user it could easily handle most daily tasks.

While it's currently possible to run the mobile version of MS Office (the ever popular software suite used by "rank and file" business people) on a phone, it lacks the full functionality of the PC version, and I just don't see how anyone could be comfortable working with spreadsheets or creating PowerPoint presentations or highly formatted Word docs on a tiny screen. It might be convenient for email and simple editing of existing documents while on the go, but again, who wants to actually work for several hours on such a small device?

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myob 13 years ago

You really can't fault anyone for not seeing the rapid advances and eventual ubiquity of mobile technology. I believe it was even Bill Gates himself who once said "I think there’s a world market for about 5 computers."
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CDarklock

13 years ago

Originally Posted by RemingtonSteele

In a word, no. I prefer to enter evergreen markets rather than chase trends

So in other words, even if you honestly believed in it you wouldn't believe in it.

Thanks for clarifying that we are not having a rational conversation. :rolleyes:

who wants to actually work for several hours on such a small device?

That's why the docking station. When you sit down to work for hours, you need to have a full-size screen, keyboard, and mouse. But when you walk away from the desk, it would be nice if you could pick up the workstation and drop it in your pocket.

Complaining that we're not there today is a little bit ridiculous. Compare the modern smartphone to the Motorola Razr v3 that was so popular just a few years ago. We've ALREADY GOT phones with 8 GB of RAM that store all their data in the cloud. Five years down the road, is it so hard to believe we might be approaching the performance level of current notebooks?

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"The Golden Town is the Golden Town no longer. They have sold their pillars for brass and their temples for money, they have made coins out of their golden doors. It is become a dark town full of trouble, there is no ease in its streets, beauty has left it and the old songs are gone." - Lord Dunsany, The Messengers

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MatthewNeer

13 years ago

Originally Posted by CDarklock

Complaining that we're not there today is a little bit ridiculous. Compare the modern smartphone to the Motorola Razr v3 that was so popular just a few years ago. We've ALREADY GOT phones with 8 GB of RAM that store all their data in the cloud. Five years down the road, is it so hard to believe we might be approaching the performance level of current notebooks?

You know why I like @CDarklock? Cause this dude GETS IT! (well, and he skateboards...)

Technology is EVOLVING so fast dude, most of us probably don't even know what humans are capable of right now (me included)

But I will say this... We are only A FEW years away from having a MacBook Pro in your pocket (Alienware if you're a PC dude) and when that IS possible, you can truly run your business form anywhere in the world AND reach your potential customers when THEY are anywhere in the world. (like takin' a poop ...not previously possible)

Anyways, in about 10 years, we will all probably be on computer systems like Tony Stark in Ironman 2. Wouldn't that be THE SH*T?!

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RemingtonSteele

13 years ago

Originally Posted by CDarklock

So in other words, even if you honestly believed in it you wouldn't believe in it.

No, that's not at all what I was saying. Even if I believe that something is going to be the next big thing, my choosing not to enter that market doesn't negate my belief that it will be the next big thing. It just means that I don't want to have anything to do with it. Like I said, I prefer to capitalize on opportunities in evergreen markets, even though I might identify opportunities in trendy markets.

Complaining that we're not there today is a little bit ridiculous. Compare the modern smartphone to the Motorola Razr v3 that was so popular just a few years ago. We've ALREADY GOT phones with 8 GB of RAM that store all their data in the cloud. Five years down the road, is it so hard to believe we might be approaching the performance level of current notebooks?

Well, I wasn't really complaining, just stating a fact when I said that there are a lot of people/businesses whose needs cannot be met by smartphones, and it is my opinion that that will be the case for a very long time. It's not the speed of advancement of the technology itself that I question, but rather the speed of adoption of said technology on a scale large enough to be able to say that the smartphone (acting as a thin client of sorts) has replaced the desktop or laptop computer.

Even if the performance levels of phones catch up to those of current notebooks in five or so years, the smartphone/cloud-storage solution is still not going to be appropriate for several large segments of the computing market, docking stations or not. Furthermore, there are security and privacy issues with cloud technology that will take time to overcome (if they can be overcome at all), mainly because of the mismatched priorities of cloud vendors and their customers or would-be customers.

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CDarklock 13 years ago

Originally Posted by RemingtonSteele

No, that's not at all what I was saying.

Well, let me come right out and say it.

Most people have cause and effect backwards.

If I sell things, and I believe something is great, chances are I will sell it because I believe it is great.

But there are an awful lot of people out there who will nod knowingly and say "he only says it's great because that's what he's selling."

I expect that from a customer, but not from a fellow marketer. When you believe in something, you get behind it AND find a way to make money in the process. That's what we do. It's about core values - if you really want to succeed in this industry, you have to get behind what you believe in, because you can't fake passion. Not really. When your products and services resonate with what you believe, it comes through and makes a big difference.

I prefer to capitalize on opportunities in evergreen markets

Mobile technology is not a fad or a trend. It's here, it's staying here, and it's only getting bigger. The recent complaints are that it's not getting bigger fast enough, or in the directions people predicted... but that's because people expected it to behave like a fad or a trend. It is neither. It's growing organically and evolving disruptively, just like it should.

there are a lot of people/businesses whose needs cannot be met by smartphones, and it is my opinion that that will be the case for a very long time.

I submit that the number of businesses which cannot be improved by a reasonable application of mobile technology is near-zero.

Similarly, the number of businesses that can dump all their computers and use nothing but mobile technology is near-zero, too.

But I'm not proposing that, and never was. If you go back to my original statement on this, I said outright that some things can't be done on mobile devices, and never will be. On the truly absurd end, I don't see Pixar moving their renderfarms to a shoebox full of smartphones, but there are an awful lot of things that just plain don't make sense on a mobile device. ATMs, for example. Anything for which portability is a liability. I'm sure you can make a list.

to be able to say that the smartphone (acting as a thin client of sorts) has replaced the desktop or laptop computer.

Nobody's saying that. They're saying the smartphone can replace a desktop or laptop computer for many people, and will replace them more and more often over time. That's what "X is the new Y" means: being new, it is not as good/popular, but in the future it will be.

Furthermore, there are security and privacy issues with cloud technology that will take time to overcome (if they can be overcome at all)

Security and privacy are the "flat earth" of the future. One day, we will look back at how we want things to work today, and we will wonder precisely how stupid our ancestors actually were.

Security is a process, not a product. There is no good reason why every connection on the internet isn't encrypted by default. People just don't bother, and the world is full of companies selling a large random number for $80 a year because they're in the list of people who get a green address bar in the popular browsers. Of course, all that means is whether they've verified your identity, and even a red bar means your connection is secure from casual eavesdropping.

If we really cared about privacy, people would be clamouring for this, but they're just generally incapable of seeing how this helps them keep their donkey porn habits a secret or cheat on their significant others more effectively.
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"The Golden Town is the Golden Town no longer. They have sold their pillars for brass and their temples for money, they have made coins out of their golden doors. It is become a dark town full of trouble, there is no ease in its streets, beauty has left it and the old songs are gone." - Lord Dunsany, The Messengers
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Gclunis

13 years ago

Originally Posted by CDarklock

I can imagine having a little docking station at your desk where you plug in your phone and it hooks up to a full-size keyboard, mouse, and monitor. When you're leaving the house, you just pull it out of the dock and stick it in your pocket. After all, it's got the raw processing power of a P3 machine, and with unlimited cloud-based storage there's no need for the bulky disk drives. It wouldn't replace EVERY desktop workstation, but for the rank and file business user it could easily handle most daily tasks.

The fact that mobile is growing and will continue growing can easily be seen in the products that are being released. take a look at the atrix from motorola: Motorola Atrix phone aims to replace PCs | Full Issue

This phone so far has been pretty successful and I personally know people who have replaced their pc's or laptops with the lapdock system for their phone. It's simply a question of convenience...mobile computing allows you to store everything in one place and work off of one machine that you can easily carry around in your pocket.

I believe that mobile is growing and it's growing VERY quickly..this is why any legitimate web business that I start will be rebuilt completely for mobile within 2 months after initial launch

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Ricardo-Acosta

13 years ago

Companies like, metro, cricket, boost and virgin already have android phones so even if they choose so go for non contract/prepaid phones they still have the option of having a smart phone while still paying a much lower price.

Acosta

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ExRat 13 years ago

Hi WillR,

People won't have much of a choice unless they want to remain unconnected from the rest of the world

So if someone doesn't have a mobile internet connection they will end up unconnected?

people won't be able to afford to NOT have one

Why?
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- WillR 13 years ago
  
  Originally Posted by ExRat
  
  Hi WillR,
  
  So if someone doesn't have a mobile internet connection they will end up unconnected?
  
  Why?
  
  The mobile smartphone is the new computer - there is no denying that. In a year or two there will be more people accessing the Internet from mobile devices than from regular PC's. This number is only going to grow over the next decade.
  
  If you can get by without a computer then so be it. However you will find most people these days use some type of computer and the mobile web is going to replace that for many.
  
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  ExRat 13 years ago
  
  Hi WillR,
  
  I think you missed my point.
  
  What if I don't have a mobile with internet access, but I have a normal, old-fashioned computer that isn't mobile.
  
  Why will it be unconnected, even if more people are using mobiles?
  
  And again -
  
  people won't be able to afford to NOT have one
  
  Why? Just saying 'more people will have mobiles' doesn't answer the question.
  
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AllanVans

13 years ago

Originally Posted by Charles Harper

This is one story...

But it is cautionary to look at numbers when determining what will grow exponentially.

Will mobile grow....yes.

Exponentially...er..well maybe.

'Poverty problem' hampers phone, cable growth

Thoughts?

CT

I've been looking at mobile for a while and it seems to be holding a steady flow and also it is growing,but to be very honest it might get alot bigger or it might just stay the way it is now.... we will see in a couple of months...

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tspike

13 years ago

Keep in mind that mobile phone adoption rates have been astonishing even in places without basic services like running water. It's cheaper and easier to put up a wireless tower now than to run wire to remote locations. 85% of the world has mobile service.

I have a link to back up these claims but the forum won't let me post it. LOL.

I think the article Charles Harper linked to is just saying there was a bump along the road, but it's growing every year, with there already being 5 billion mobile subscribers. It's only a matter of time before the hardware for smart phones becomes cheap enough to penetrate the existing mobile user base. Who really cares if it's exponential? It's still going to grow, big time.

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MatthewNeer

13 years ago

Great find CTH!

I believe there is most def some truth to that man. That's why businesses like Kricket have EXPLODED over the past few years.

There's only one thing I see that will make mobile integration inevitable.

And that's the growth of technology. As it grows, the prices of all that once cool, expensive stuff becomes dirt cheap.

For example, the iPhone 3GS was like $250 bucks out the door like only 2 years ago, now that sucker is like $50 bucks. IF THAT!

It will take time, but I believe that as the price levels, so will the market and more people will have access to high speed Internet and mobile smart phones.

However, its important to note that at the time the lower end of the market has access to what we have now at a cheaper price, the industry standard will have raised the bar again and our Internet that we've got now will probably be twice or three times as fast!

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Charles Harper

13 years ago

I love a good conversation, don't you?

Okay....I think this may be worth reading and listenting to.

I hear so often, that the "big corporate types" don't know what's really going on.

While I acknowledge we are all taking advantage of their inability to be nimble enough to respond to consumer and business demand, corporate is good at spending money on researching trends and compiling statistics. Those statistics don't account for those of us who have moxy to defy them, but they do define the parameters in which we, as internet marketing tradesmen and women, operate.

That said, here is an interesting webinar that might yet be worth your time. I will add more if I see them in my reading:

eMarketer Webinar: Mobile, Social & Geolocation—Key Trends for Marketers – The eMarketer Blog

CT

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Charles Harper

13 years ago

More fodder for the discussion.

Here is a list of articles from E-Marketer.

A subscription is $10K from what I understand.

But when you look at what is availabe to those who have total access to the stats that matter, it is understandable.

But, I digress....

Here are some articles on Mobile trends from a credible source. It will help us keep our thoughts grounded in some research and fact.

Results - eMarketer

Again, I say as a disclaimer, I know that being Warrior is all about operating outside of these trends and outrunning, out-thinking and outmaneuvering them. But we still should know what they are.

CT

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MrBusiness

13 years ago

I think that the smartphone is going to take over.. I mean, look at what it can offer. As already said, its pretty much a portable PC. Well, thats my opinion anyway

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Don't Be Quick to Say the Mobile Will Grow Exponentially

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