What do 'good ice cream' and 'good internet marketing' have in common?

SMS · 01-12-2009, 06:48 AM

I just wanted to share this little nugget with fellow warriors, so here goes...

Sometimes when I'm doing niche/keyword research with the free Google Keywords tool, I come across a strange phenomenom which I attribute to inaccurate data and/or the imprecision of the tool. However, over the weekend I made a discovery that made me completely overhaul my thinking.

That discovery is the free Google Insights tool. I am sure many have heard with it, but please bear with me.

If I type in 'good ice cream' (without the quotes) into the tool and then click on the 'Get keyword ideas' button, the following data is returned:

Approx Search Volume: December = Not enough data
Approx Avg Search Volume = 8,100

Now my usual reaction was to think, 'hmm Google have messed up the data for December, so I'll go with the avg search volume'. Actually, to be more accurate, I usually don't bother with figures for the last month (December in this case). I just assume that I can safely extrapolate the average search volume (give or take a small percentage) to every month. I was wrong. Big time!

Google are most likely using a 12 month simle moving average for their avg search volume figures. The problem is that moving averages lag the data they represent by a significant margin. Weighted averages and exponetial averages are more sensitive, but still don't eradicate the problem. What we really need is an actual representation of the raw data. Enter Google Insights (and Google Trends)...

Google Insights (Google Insights for Search) provides a visual plot of the search volume for a keyword over time. The Y axis shows the search volume of a keyword (relative to the entire Google search volume), while the X axis shows the time in years.

The plot for 'good ice cream' (without the quotes) is an almost perfect cyclical plot. Search volume peaks in July and then falls away to a bottom in October which is maintained till the following April. In April, demand rises steadily to another peak in July, and then falls away. This cycle is repeated over and over again.

If I put on my thinking cap, I can easily rationalise the plot as follows: demand for ice cream is always going to be much greater in the spring and summer months than it is in the fall and winter. This is very accurately reflcted by the plot.

What this tells me is that the Google keywords tools was actually correct when it reported 'not enough data' for December.

Ice cream is a very obvious and simplistic example... but you will be amazed by how many keywords are affected by this cyclical phenomenom.

I am sure that smart Warriors can use this information to great advantage.

azlanhussain · 01-12-2009, 08:13 AM

Hmmm never thought of that.. but thanks for sharing.. I'm sure it will benefits many..

SMS · 01-12-2009, 11:17 AM

I was using one of the 3rd party keyword tools a few hours ago, and I wondered what they used for their searches number. I looked in the manual, and as I suspected they use the average monthly search no.

Unfortunately (and there's not much the tool vendors can do about this), this figure can be quite misleading. Using our 'good ice cream' with an average monthly figure of 8,100 as an example...

Doing some simple math reveals that in July the search numbers should be nearer 11,000, while in December they should be around 5,500. The difference between the peak and the bottom is a factor of 2. In some other cases, it can be much more dramatic than this.

Sommink else the tools don't reveal is that (under normal circumstances) one can reasonably expect search figures to drop after July, and then to start rising again after January.

This is info that I would definitely like to be aware of. I'm pretty sure some savvy IMers are already using this very useful information in their marketing campaigns.

The big retailers et al already use such info in their planning, otherwise they would stock just as much ice cream in December as they do in July. We know that is not the case.

I will try and provide some graphics later.

davesharp · 01-12-2009, 11:28 AM

That's very interesting, I will go back to the research I was doing last night and look again. The niche that I am researching mirrors the ice cream analogy
quite well.

Thanks again,
Dave

TLTheLiberator · 01-12-2009, 12:32 PM

Online business just like ice cream can also get messy.

Most people learn how to lick an ice cream cone so that it won't make a mess all over the place.

You must be organized, focused and have a good plan of attack to win at online business or...

... you could make a mess of the best financial happening for people since we were allowed to make money anyway we can - as long as it's legal.

An online based business!

TL

SMS · 01-12-2009, 04:50 PM

LOL... took me a while to catch your drift.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator

Online business just like ice cream can also get messy.

Most people learn how to lick an ice cream cone so that it won't make a mess all over the place.

You must be organized, focused and have a good plan of attack to win at online business or...

... you could make a mess of the best financial happening for people since we were allowed to make money anyway we can - as long as it's legal.

An online based business!

TL

Charles E. White · 01-12-2009, 05:37 PM

Quote:

What do 'good ice cream' and 'good internet marketing' have in common?

If you don't do something with them they'll just melt away and disappear!

jeff1960 · 01-12-2009, 05:53 PM

TL I think you have a good ebook their

VegasGreg · 01-12-2009, 06:01 PM

Q) What do 'good ice cream' and 'good internet marketing' have in common?

A)If you take in too much too fast you get 'brain freeze'.

01-12-2009, 06:48 AM	#1
SMS Can Content be Addictive? War Room Member Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: UK Posts: 1,037 Thanks: 159 Thanked 352 Times in 126 Posts	What do 'good ice cream' and 'good internet marketing' have in common? I just wanted to share this little nugget with fellow warriors, so here goes... Sometimes when I'm doing niche/keyword research with the free Google Keywords tool, I come across a strange phenomenom which I attribute to inaccurate data and/or the imprecision of the tool. However, over the weekend I made a discovery that made me completely overhaul my thinking. That discovery is the free Google Insights tool. I am sure many have heard with it, but please bear with me. If I type in 'good ice cream' (without the quotes) into the tool and then click on the 'Get keyword ideas' button, the following data is returned: Approx Search Volume: December = Not enough data Approx Avg Search Volume = 8,100 Now my usual reaction was to think, 'hmm Google have messed up the data for December, so I'll go with the avg search volume'. Actually, to be more accurate, I usually don't bother with figures for the last month (December in this case). I just assume that I can safely extrapolate the average search volume (give or take a small percentage) to every month. I was wrong. Big time! Google are most likely using a 12 month simle moving average for their avg search volume figures. The problem is that moving averages lag the data they represent by a significant margin. Weighted averages and exponetial averages are more sensitive, but still don't eradicate the problem. What we really need is an actual representation of the raw data. Enter Google Insights (and Google Trends)... Google Insights (Google Insights for Search) provides a visual plot of the search volume for a keyword over time. The Y axis shows the search volume of a keyword (relative to the entire Google search volume), while the X axis shows the time in years. The plot for 'good ice cream' (without the quotes) is an almost perfect cyclical plot. Search volume peaks in July and then falls away to a bottom in October which is maintained till the following April. In April, demand rises steadily to another peak in July, and then falls away. This cycle is repeated over and over again. If I put on my thinking cap, I can easily rationalise the plot as follows: demand for ice cream is always going to be much greater in the spring and summer months than it is in the fall and winter. This is very accurately reflcted by the plot. What this tells me is that the Google keywords tools was actually correct when it reported 'not enough data' for December. Ice cream is a very obvious and simplistic example... but you will be amazed by how many keywords are affected by this cyclical phenomenom. I am sure that smart Warriors can use this information to great advantage.

01-12-2009, 08:13 AM	#2
azlanhussain Active Warrior War Room Member Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: , , Malaysia. Posts: 65 Thanks: 12 Thanked 4 Times in 3 Posts Contact Info	Re: What do 'good ice cream' and 'good internet marketing' have in common? Hmmm never thought of that.. but thanks for sharing.. I'm sure it will benefits many..
	>>>>> Best traffic that converts! <<<<<

01-12-2009, 11:17 AM	#3
SMS Can Content be Addictive? War Room Member Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: UK Posts: 1,037 Thanks: 159 Thanked 352 Times in 126 Posts	Re: What do 'good ice cream' and 'good internet marketing' have in common? I was using one of the 3rd party keyword tools a few hours ago, and I wondered what they used for their searches number. I looked in the manual, and as I suspected they use the average monthly search no. Unfortunately (and there's not much the tool vendors can do about this), this figure can be quite misleading. Using our 'good ice cream' with an average monthly figure of 8,100 as an example... Doing some simple math reveals that in July the search numbers should be nearer 11,000, while in December they should be around 5,500. The difference between the peak and the bottom is a factor of 2. In some other cases, it can be much more dramatic than this. Sommink else the tools don't reveal is that (under normal circumstances) one can reasonably expect search figures to drop after July, and then to start rising again after January. This is info that I would definitely like to be aware of. I'm pretty sure some savvy IMers are already using this very useful information in their marketing campaigns. The big retailers et al already use such info in their planning, otherwise they would stock just as much ice cream in December as they do in July. We know that is not the case. I will try and provide some graphics later.

01-12-2009, 11:28 AM	#4
davesharp Active Warrior War Room Member Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: On the Greek island of Crete Posts: 84 Blog Entries: 1 Thanks: 34 Thanked 14 Times in 12 Posts Social Networking Contact Info	Re: What do 'good ice cream' and 'good internet marketing' have in common? That's very interesting, I will go back to the research I was doing last night and look again. The niche that I am researching mirrors the ice cream analogy quite well. Thanks again, Dave

01-12-2009, 12:32 PM	#5
TLTheLiberator Please get a net biz plan War Room Member Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: , , USA. Posts: 1,428 Blog Entries: 3 Thanks: 1,109 Thanked 559 Times in 427 Posts	Re: What do 'good ice cream' and 'good internet marketing' have in common? Online business just like ice cream can also get messy. Most people learn how to lick an ice cream cone so that it won't make a mess all over the place. You must be organized, focused and have a good plan of attack to win at online business or... ... you could make a mess of the best financial happening for people since we were allowed to make money anyway we can - as long as it's legal. An online based business! TL

01-12-2009, 05:53 PM	#8
jeff1960 Jeff Wellman War Room Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: , , USA. Posts: 43 Thanks: 4 Thanked 8 Times in 7 Posts Social Networking	Re: What do 'good ice cream' and 'good internet marketing' have in common? TL I think you have a good ebook their
	Free Video Series; Potentially Make $100 Per Day Following A Proven, Simple, No Cost, Affiliate, & Article Marketing Step-By-Step System!" http://www.fastmoneymethods.com

01-12-2009, 06:01 PM	#9
VegasGreg Greg Schueler War Room Member Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Las Vegas Posts: 2,102 Thanks: 193 Thanked 398 Times in 292 Posts Social Networking Contact Info	Re: What do 'good ice cream' and 'good internet marketing' have in common? Q) What do 'good ice cream' and 'good internet marketing' have in common? A)If you take in too much too fast you get 'brain freeze'.
	Greg Schueler - Wordpress Fanatic... Offline Marketing Rockstar... Caribbean All Inclusive \| Travel Guides \| 4 UR Health