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How long will Twitter be this new phenomenon

by vbkid
16 replies
Hey,

I'm thinking about developing a bunch of tools for Twitter, my problem is I'm trying to decide on what project I should dedicate my time to.

Do you think Twitter will be strong and around in two years....?

Is it worth developing stuff for it?
#long #phenomenon #twitter
  • Profile picture of the author JamesFrancisIM
    In my personal opinion - Yes.

    Over time, Twitter will eventually fix things and add new features which will definately create a buzz. They're not stupid, and are constantly growing.

    Go for it

    - James.
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  • Profile picture of the author vbkid
    Hey James,

    Thanks, I might... lol
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  • Profile picture of the author ltdraper
    I wouldn't bet the farm on Twitter. They have no revenue and no revenue model -- but they assure us they're working on it.

    Their business model has been to be a hyped company and raise venture capital. That's no longer available as venture money has pretty much dried up, especially for companies without revenue.

    They just announced a throttle on their API -- no more than 20K requests from a single IP per day. That makes any server based approach almost impossible since simply retrieving the friend list of a user can take 20 calls. Looking for cost cutting indicates that they're starting to worry about their burn rate.

    My guess is Twitter will be sold in a fire sale. Their biggest problem is that they took in $20M in venture capital, so they have to be a $40M/yr company just to break even and keep the VCs from selling themoff. So whatever they end up being, it won't be what they are now.
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    Nothing to see here, move along...

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  • Profile picture of the author Joel Peterson
    I've got a couple buddies that have developed some pretty cool viral apps for twitter that is working well for them.

    I also think that twitter spam may ruin the whole model if they don't get a handle on it.

    Joel
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  • Profile picture of the author Chad Heffelfinger
    Twitter is hot and it will get hotter as it is growing at a very fast pace. It is getting real world news coverage and mainstream people are jumping in and now tweeting.

    You never know what will or will not be popular two years from now, but it is not going anywhere anytime soon. They are capping their API right now, but they are not going under because of a cash shortage. Even if they had to sell the site it is not going away, they turned down a $500 million dollar offer from Facebook just recently. I don't think $20 million in venture capital is a big deal when you turn down a $500 million dollar offer.

    I think it would be well worth it for you to develop Twitter tools, the one thing I would pay attention to however, is if you will use the API, as that is about to be capped. That is what I would concern myself with more than Twitter making money or not right now.
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    • Profile picture of the author ltdraper
      Originally Posted by Chad Heffelfinger View Post

      Twitter is hot and it will get hotter as it is growing at a very fast pace. It is getting real world news coverage and mainstream people are jumping in and now tweeting.
      Their popularity is a two edged sword. The more people use it, the higher their burn rate becomes. And since they don't have revenue right now and can't raise any more capital, growing fast is not necessarily a good thing. Even if they come up with a revenue model, it will take them time to catch up to the burn rate. It's going to be tough.

      Originally Posted by Chad Heffelfinger View Post

      You never know what will or will not be popular two years from now, but it is not going anywhere anytime soon. They are capping their API right now, but they are not going under because of a cash shortage. Even if they had to sell the site it is not going away, they turned down a $500 million dollar offer from Facebook just recently. I don't think $20 million in venture capital is a big deal when you turn down a $500 million dollar offer.
      That was $500M in Facebook stock, which in real money isn't worth anywhere near that. Facebook is privately held, so their stock value is what they say it is, until they actually try to sell it. Considering where GM, GE, and Citibank are today, there's no way Facebook is worth the $15B they claim. More likely Facebook is worth 1x revenue ($300M), so Twitter really turned down a $9M offer (3%), which is less than the VCs have in it. Even if Facebook is worth double that (hard to imagine in this economy), the offer is still a loss for the VCs, which is why they didn't take it.

      We don't know what Twitter's burn rate is, but we do know that they raised their last round about a year ago and it is impossible for them to raise another round. The company was built to attract venture capital, not create revenue. Their entire existence now is a race to build a revenue stream before the VC money runs out. Given their public indifference to actually making money (they just hired their first business development employee this month), it's hard to imagine that they will be around in their current form 2 years from now.

      Originally Posted by Chad Heffelfinger View Post

      I think it would be well worth it for you to develop Twitter tools, the one thing I would pay attention to however, is if you will use the API, as that is about to be capped. That is what I would concern myself with more than Twitter making money or not right now.
      The API cap is a symptom of their money problems. As they become more popular, this will become more pronounced. And without free and unlimited access to the API, most of the tools for Twitter that made it popular in the first place will have their opportunities dry up.

      I don't see anything wrong with developing some tools for Twitter if you're not bettering your company on the future of Twitter. But if your sole strategy is to ride their coattails you might not like where you end up.

      I'm active on Twitter and get it, but I also use it with the understanding that it might not be what it is today in the future.
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      Nothing to see here, move along...

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  • Profile picture of the author DavidO
    Look for the next phenomenon. Twitter has already seen its best days. There's only one way that such a pointless and idiotic activity can go: down.
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  • Profile picture of the author pavondunbar
    Twitter, IMHO...

    is going to get bigger---and better...

    I have a MySpace page (blah...I don't even use it that much) and I have as my tagline...follow me on Twitter....

    You would not believe how many people ask me...what is twitter?

    Twitter will blow up the same way MySpace and Facebook did a few yrs ago...

    Pavon
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    Cost Effective Mobile Marketing For You & Your Business
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  • Profile picture of the author Cash37
    Twitter is stupid IMO. I've never seen the point. I visited the rapper SouljaBoy's twitter to see how he was using it and what did I read? "man twitter got old fast" told me enough right there, move on.
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    • Profile picture of the author JamesFrancisIM
      Originally Posted by Cash37 View Post

      Twitter is stupid IMO. I've never seen the point. I visited the rapper SouljaBoy's twitter to see how he was using it and what did I read? "man twitter got old fast" told me enough right there, move on.
      So you're relying on an outdated sold-out rapper to determine your success with Twitter?

      Even if you join and create a profile, that's still more traffic and attention than you would have if you DIDN'T make a profile.

      You have nothing to lose.

      - James.
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    • Profile picture of the author ADAMw3
      Originally Posted by Cash37 View Post

      Twitter is stupid IMO. I've never seen the point. I visited the rapper SouljaBoy's twitter to see how he was using it and what did I read? "man twitter got old fast" told me enough right there, move on.
      Give it a try and see if you still call it stupid. I have only been on twitter for a couple of days and already have seen significant traffic spikes to my blogs.

      Not crap traffic either as each person is averaging around 3 minutes on each of my blogs (which is rather good since there is not much content on any single one).

      I think twitter has only begun. Most people still are not familar with Twitter yet and it already is growing fast. The only reason we are exposed to it is because we are marketers. It is our job to know about things before they explode.

      Two years from now I think Twitter will have grown into something similar to myspace, with new apps and what not.
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  • Profile picture of the author Chad Heffelfinger
    For all those who just don't get it, a whole lot do get it and are flocking to it.

    Twitter is the fastest growing social media site online. It grew at a rate of 752% in 2008 and of its 4.5 million users over 1 million joined in December alone. Thats over 20% that have joined in the last month of the year.

    Twitter is not going away no matter how stupid some people think it is. You either get it or you don't. A lot of people are starting to "get it".
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  • Profile picture of the author braver55b
    Twitter will still be around and at the moment, its popularity knows no bounds. They do need however to secure their site better as there was a big scare as various people, including celebrities, that had their accounts hacked less than two weeks ago.
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  • Profile picture of the author Dana_W
    Nobody can predict what will be popular in two years. I mean, Twitter is hugely popular right now, but it's a relatively new creation, was created in 2006 - and even a year ago, it was nowhere near as hot. I joined the Warrior Forum in Oct. 2007 and nobody was talking about Twitter at all. So right now Twitter is the hot thing - a year ago it was a brand new novelty - and who knows what it will be in a year, much less two years?

    I think it's safe to plan for the popularity of something a few months out, but not a few years out. You never know what new big trendy thing will come along to replace it, you never know when something is going to start to fade out in popularity, etc.

    However for right now, I see a huge increase in interest in Twitter. My Twitter ebook is selling faster than ever and I'm not even promoting it - I see more questions than ever about Twitter on the WF, whereas it literally was never mentioned when I joined the WF 14 months ago - Joel Comm is releasing a book on it, etc. etc. It's very hot right now and and will be around for at least the near future.

    But in the internet world - two years is an eternity, so I wouldn't try to plan designing apps for something with the thought that Twitter would still be hot then.
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    • Profile picture of the author Jeff Lawrence
      very much wanting to learn about this. Could some one give me a little insight.

      Thanks Jeff L
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