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Old 05-12-2009, 11:26 AM   #1
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Default Is The Recession Over?

Is The Recession Over?

What do you think? Is the bottom in or are there more shoes to drop?

- US stock market is up 30%
- Banking crisis seems to have stabilized
- The govt has flooded the markets with liquidity
- Clickbank still paying out $7 per second (according to the ticker on their homepage)

On the downside:
- Real estate prices still declining (more foreclosures to come)
- Unemployment is the highest since 1983
- Businesses still laying off or going under
- Dramatic reduction in $1,000+ product launches

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Old 05-12-2009, 11:32 AM   #2
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

In real human terms the recession is just starting as unemployment sets in and stores are not able to stay open.

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Old 05-12-2009, 11:59 AM   #3
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

The recession is not over and most experts predict more of the same until somewhere in mid 2010. A few rebel economists have predicted a major depression, though I disagree with them. The stock market is up 30% from when to when? A rising stock market does not necessariliy translate to much unless there is a sustainable and consist upward pattern. Right now there's quite a bit of volatility of which seasoned investors can take advantage from, but not the average investor or individual.

I think the domino effect is still continuing in many areas. We've got a ways to go before we've recovered from this. Sadly, there are many who will never recover because they've lost so much in their 401k, 403b, IRAs, or variable annuities and they don't have the time horizon to recoup their investment losses. My heart really goes out to those people. This is another reason why I'm a huge proponent of personal and business financial planning, something a lot of entrepreneurs neglect.

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Old 05-12-2009, 12:00 PM   #4
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

Ron,

I've read a lot of the financial pundits on this and the general feeling is that this is an overoptimistic spike. There will be a few like this before the economy bottoms out and recovery starts in 2010/11.

Apparently, there is more bad news to come and the bank stress tests were a bad joke.

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Of course there are still a lot of business opportunities around but I wouldn't invest in bank or car company shares just now.

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Old 05-12-2009, 12:05 PM   #5
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

It's my opinion that the recession will progress into borderline depression or full out depression. I'm the last person on the Earth who wants this to happen, but with the way that inflation has been increasing, the way that prices have still gone up for commodities, and the increasing national debt only guarantee that our economy will take some more major hits.

Although the stock market has been doing well recently I think it will fluctuate up and down but with an overall trend of going downward for a few years. Most predict a continual decrease in the market until around late 2010, I would give this the absolute earliest time for a turnaround, with a more likely turnaround in 2012. But I don't think we have seen the worst of it yet for sure. And I hope we can weather the storm and keep our sanity as a country (America and the rest of the world) in the meantime.
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Old 05-12-2009, 12:09 PM   #6
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

I dont think its over.. I've been a realtor for years and I still maintain my license and keep up with whats going on in the market. We have a huge waive for new foreclosures thats gonna hit the market this year. And I mean HUGE. Who knows what it'll do to the economy. I've also talked to several of the asset managers (the people that manage the banks inventor) and they are doubling and tripling their eviction staff in preparation. UGH

The American dream must be earned..
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Old 05-12-2009, 12:09 PM   #7
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

If today is 2012 then Yes it's over!
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Old 05-12-2009, 12:15 PM   #8
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

This is a suckers rally. Unless the US economy radically changes its structure there is no way it will become what it once was. Only bubbles could change that, but bubbles like we've seen, burst.

Huge trade deficits and big government spending are certainly not the way to change it. The US hasn't had real economical growth for more than a decade. I'm talking about growth from the creation of new products and services and increase in productivity, not bubble induced "growth".

Unless Americans put in their heads that to spend money you need to make money, nothing will change.

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Old 05-12-2009, 12:18 PM   #9
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

To play devils advocate - if the recession was at a bottom and on the verge of being over, would the masses know it?

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Old 05-12-2009, 02:26 PM   #10
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

It would be over if the media would stop the scare
tactics and the government would stop trying to
drive us deeper in their quest to get more system feeders.

But that's just my opinion.
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Old 05-12-2009, 02:36 PM   #11
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

It would be the shortest recession in history if it is over.

I don't think it's even gotten started yet and Obama's massive spending will just make it worse.

What could be more stupid than trying to spend your way out of a finacial problem?
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Old 05-12-2009, 02:37 PM   #12
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ron Douglas View Post
To play devils advocate - if the recession was at a bottom and on the verge of being over, would the masses know it?
Naw, I don't think so, Ron. I think most people get their
"We're-In-A-Recession" knowledge from watching the
news.

But the news don't really report about things like
"The-Recession-Is-Over" because well... they just don't.

Not that I know of at least.

So, I don't think the masses would know... they'll just
grow numb to the fact that there's a recession and just
move on.

When they get out of it, they won't even know until
they look back. Then when another recession smacks
them again... well, it's a never ending cycle =)

Asher

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Old 05-12-2009, 02:39 PM   #13
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

As long as the gov'ts of the world keep creating money out of thin air, we are not at the end of this.
Everything they have done has been fake with nothing solid to back it up, so there is no way it can survive.

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Old 05-12-2009, 03:29 PM   #14
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

There was a recession?

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Old 05-12-2009, 03:43 PM   #15
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

There's definitely signs that the economy is coming back up again. Looks like Obama's efforts are really working. I can't ask for more as long as my family and friends have jobs again.
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Old 05-12-2009, 04:01 PM   #16
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

I'm seeing evidence of a loosening of panic in my local
economy. We know that any real recession will ease-up
when people stop panicking and start spending some money,
so it's the thaw of the emotional freeze at work.

This is not to say that there aren't real pain situations
for workers who've been laid-off and whole local economies
drying-up for good - just that average consumers are
realizing they are gonna survive and they cannot put-off
all spending forever.

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Old 05-12-2009, 08:30 PM   #17
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

I was re-reading Atlas Shrugged but I figured, why bother, I can see the same thing by visiting CNN and MSNBC's websites.

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Old 05-12-2009, 08:59 PM   #18
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian W. Wang View Post
There's definitely signs that the economy is coming back up again. Looks like Obama's efforts are really working. I can't ask for more as long as my family and friends have jobs again.
That's good, but I assure you that your friends and family are an exception. The unemployment rate is still steadily going up and there are several thousand more homeless people every month.

Again, I'm happy that your friends and family are employed.
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Old 05-12-2009, 10:42 PM   #19
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

Recessions may last longer following the civil unrest seen with the LA Riots.

Government spending will help keep the peace but at the price of extending the recession. I hate Government spending like most but without it we may see some major destruction of cities with the possibility of rioting.

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Old 05-12-2009, 10:46 PM   #20
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

the economy is in no shape of form going back to where it needs to be just yet, but Internet marketers are some of the last people affected by the recession
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Old 05-12-2009, 10:48 PM   #21
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

The recession won't be over until unemployment numbers drop back down, and that is going to be a long, slow painful process...
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Old 05-12-2009, 10:56 PM   #22
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

There really was no recession online...


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Old 05-12-2009, 11:02 PM   #23
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

What recession?

I must have slept through it.


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Old 05-12-2009, 11:09 PM   #24
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

As an investor I assure you that this recession is far from over. With out bringing in the technicals from how I determine what investments to make. Lets have a look at most recessions first. List of recessions in the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

From that link above you will see that every recession we have been in has started due to one thing or another. Lets take the great depression for instance. This started because of our financial system melting down. A mix between this and a massive drought brought our economy to its demise. Which lasted 10 years till 1932.

Now lets go down the list a little further to the 1973. This recession was cause by an oil crisis and lasted 2 years. Which really wasn't and oil crisis but due to how everything was it was considered an oil crisis.

Now also looking at the chart I want you to look at every recession that started due to a financial melt down or financial collapse. You will see that each and every recession that started due to a financial collapse lasted longer then the other recessions. These lasted on average 2 years longer then any other recession.

Now lets take the current recession or as I would like to say the greatest depression. This originally started due to surging oil prices. Those surging oil prices where just a mask though from what was really lurking behind the scenes. We then find that majority of the banks that where making loans where making nothing but bad loans. For atleast a 6 year period in time. The millions in loans they made through this time well over half where bad loans. We then started seeing the derivitives that these banks where invested in start to plumet. Those dirivitives where the only thing keeping most of those banks alive.

Unemployment is at current 8.9% and climbing. Oil is back on the rise with gold. The way I see this is that if most recessions lasted 2 years. Where as most finacial recessions lasted more then 2 years. With the current recession only being around for what most would say is a year. We have another few years of down time.

So the worste part may however be over we are still not going to see any growth in the us for another couple of years. So from my stand point no this puppy is far from over. I have done alot of research on this matter. I am currently bullish in the market as well. However this can change at any moment I just wait for that one day when this upturn is over. I then sell off all of my investments sit back and wait for the next run up.

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Old 05-12-2009, 11:43 PM   #25
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

So how do you read it .... 23 out of 26 so far are doubtfull of a recovery in the making, rather that the general state worsens....how bad, and where will people turn when they run out of cash and the governments largesse. I believe you brother have a big target stenciled on your back.

Last edited by visionbuilder; 05-12-2009 at 11:54 PM. Reason: spell
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Old 05-12-2009, 11:50 PM   #26
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ron Douglas View Post
To play devils advocate - if the recession was at a bottom and on the verge of being over, would the masses know it?
Ron,

They will be the last know it... the hidden agenda focuses on keeping the majority as ignorant and subdued as possible.

Staves off revolutionary uprisings.

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Old 05-13-2009, 12:08 AM   #27
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

The same fools that told us we were NOT in a recession are now saying we are finally recovering.

I see a lot of weather men in the financial media and not enough ‘honest’ financial experts that will speak the truth.
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Old 05-13-2009, 03:30 AM   #28
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

What recession? My sales are at an all-time high. I'm being serious. The "recession" is a media-induced panic more than anything else. They had to start it to get their messiah Obama elected and now they're doing the follow-through to make it seem worse than it is, so in a few months they can say he "fixed" it and make him look like a hero.

There are two kinds of people affected by the recession:

1. Jerks who knowingly "bought" houses they couldn't afford, and who now deserve to lose them in foreclosure. Keep in mind that foreclosures DO NOT affect normal people who bought a house as a place to live (not a lottery ticket) and who can afford the payments. If anything, the foreclosure wave will HELP you because if your home value drops temporarily, that means lower property taxes!

2. Looters who expect to get something for nothing in the stock market. I go crazy in the gym because they have CNBC on some of the TVs and these whiny people call in, whining, "My money is just sitting in the bank and not growing." Umm... want your money to grow? it's called WORKING. Really, get a life people. Grow up. There's no such thing as something for nothing.

In the end, those of use who are diligent and who work and who continue to provide value to others have nothing to worry about. From my point of view, everything is on sale right now - everything is cheap, and we're enjoying it to the fullest!

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Old 05-13-2009, 03:51 AM   #29
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankRumbauskas View Post
What recession? My sales are at an all-time high. I'm being serious. The "recession" is a media-induced panic more than anything else. They had to start it to get their messiah Obama elected and now they're doing the follow-through to make it seem worse than it is, so in a few months they can say he "fixed" it and make him look like a hero.

There are two kinds of people affected by the recession:

1. Jerks who knowingly "bought" houses they couldn't afford, and who now deserve to lose them in foreclosure. Keep in mind that foreclosures DO NOT affect normal people who bought a house as a place to live (not a lottery ticket) and who can afford the payments. If anything, the foreclosure wave will HELP you because if your home value drops temporarily, that means lower property taxes!

2. Looters who expect to get something for nothing in the stock market. I go crazy in the gym because they have CNBC on some of the TVs and these whiny people call in, whining, "My money is just sitting in the bank and not growing." Umm... want your money to grow? it's called WORKING. Really, get a life people. Grow up. There's no such thing as something for nothing.

In the end, those of use who are diligent and who work and who continue to provide value to others have nothing to worry about. From my point of view, everything is on sale right now - everything is cheap, and we're enjoying it to the fullest!

Frank
Completely AGREE. However, it still does not change the fact the with all of this horrendous spending the currency's of the world will eventually be worth nothing. People are doing better than ever IMHO.

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Old 05-13-2009, 03:56 AM   #30
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

I really doubt it's over.

The government is borrowing 50 Cents for every $1 spent. Large companies are still laying off people... No. I don't think it's going to be over for a while.

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Old 05-13-2009, 04:01 AM   #31
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

these a$$holes are just bumping up the stocks high enough til they sell all their shares and screw the naive and greedy americans who want to make a quick buck.

dont invest in stocks period.

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Old 05-13-2009, 04:04 AM   #32
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

No the recession is not over. With the amount of money the US gov't is printing off and the amount of debt we are accumulating, the market is having a bear rally. Unemployment will continue to rise along with inflation and interest rates. The govt just place a bandaid over the problems instead of letting them fix theirselves.
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Old 05-13-2009, 04:05 AM   #33
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

I agree with the above comment, its a bear market rally in the stocks at the moment. Even Warren Buffet commented it was a bear market rally and only a matter of time before they fall back down. How can the recession be over with so much unemployment still still to come...?
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Old 05-13-2009, 05:24 AM   #34
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

In the UK, we're merrily rolling towards more problems. The gov has spent/is printing so much money that we're facing a 15% tax hike, cuts in (already poor) public services and/or having to work until we're 70!

Unemployment is at 2.2M with the last rise the greatest we've seen for 30 years. House prices are still going down (there are odd increase blips around the country but the trend is still down) and foreclosures are on the increase. Unfortunately the gov presided over unprecidented house price rises over the last few years to unsustainable levels.

In short - no! There'll be much more to come.

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Old 05-13-2009, 05:35 AM   #35
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

Danger lurks ahead, just look at how many sea going freight tankers are laid up in ports;
12 oil tankers in Cornwall, England, there will be three times this number by December.

The Phillippines;
About 1,000 shipping vessels are laid up for lack of freight, and the number could swell to several thousand in the next few years, Norwegian risk management foundation Det Norske Veritas reported this month. Popular Southeast Asian ports such as Singapore are turning ships away.
Everywher you look does indicate the BIG, BIG problems are ahead of us.
In the UK they are trying to recruit extra police to meet the predicted soaring crime, burglaries, etc
This will reverberate through every country affected by these black times.

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Old 05-13-2009, 05:36 AM   #36
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

The coldest day of the year usually happens some time after the shortest day of the year because it takes some time for the shortened exposure of the sun to be felt in the weather.

I think this recession is going to be like that. It's good to hear that there are indicators of recovery but for many people things are going to get worse before the effects of the recovery trickle down to create jobs. Sadly, in some industries the jobs are not going to come back (I think they will have gone overseas or online).

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Old 05-13-2009, 05:42 AM   #37
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

It's not over yet...

It will stay to depress more and more people for probably next one complete year. Then it will be countered and the economy will step in a new era where every one will feel the cool breeze blowing, pleasant sunlights every where...

Till then keep your self fastly belted to your present jobs...
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Old 05-13-2009, 05:46 AM   #38
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

In the UK the recession is still hitting hard. I have friends who go into work not knowing if they will be there the next day. When you go into town the number of boarded up shops is a real sign of how bad it is. I've not seen it this bad.

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Old 05-13-2009, 01:48 PM   #39
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankRumbauskas View Post
What recession? My sales are at an all-time high. I'm being serious. The "recession" is a media-induced panic more than anything else. They had to start it to get their messiah Obama elected and now they're doing the follow-through to make it seem worse than it is, so in a few months they can say he "fixed" it and make him look like a hero.

There are two kinds of people affected by the recession:

1. Jerks who knowingly "bought" houses they couldn't afford, and who now deserve to lose them in foreclosure. Keep in mind that foreclosures DO NOT affect normal people who bought a house as a place to live (not a lottery ticket) and who can afford the payments. If anything, the foreclosure wave will HELP you because if your home value drops temporarily, that means lower property taxes!

2. Looters who expect to get something for nothing in the stock market. I go crazy in the gym because they have CNBC on some of the TVs and these whiny people call in, whining, "My money is just sitting in the bank and not growing." Umm... want your money to grow? it's called WORKING. Really, get a life people. Grow up. There's no such thing as something for nothing.

In the end, those of use who are diligent and who work and who continue to provide value to others have nothing to worry about. From my point of view, everything is on sale right now - everything is cheap, and we're enjoying it to the fullest!

Frank
I agree with you to a point frank. However what your basically saying is the layoffs are not real. I can assure you that they are. I worked for a land surveying company for 7 years and was laid off last year due to this recession. I have recently found out that a company that was 30 or so employees is now only 3-4 employees. Every one has been laid off from the company besides the owners. Do you think they are going to fire themselves. When they know that they have a highly profitable business. Even with the economy in the crappers. I personally before I was laid off made the company well over 600k in 10 months. 4-5 jobs a day at prices ranging from 400-30000 so how can you sit there and say that the recession is only media geared. If it was not for the recession I would still be working 50-60 hours a week doing land surveying instead of strugling was only able to find part time work after the lay off. Then just a few months ago I thought why not try my luck on internet marketing.

Which yes has made me about 5-600 in these 2 months. This however is hardley enough to keep me going. Untill I am able to get well over 3-400 visits a day. Then and only then will I be able to start to relax alittle instead of going to work for my part time job comeing home working online for 15-16hours a day. getting a few hours of sleep and yes I mean only a few. 3-4 hours of sleep to be exact. Then doing this all over again. Your sales may be steady or at an all time high as you say i assue you this is because you a probally targeting something to do with making money or the recession we are in. Not only this you have also probally been doing this now for the past couple of years which has allowed you the time to establish the backlinks seo your page according. With a large number of backlinks as well probally sitting on the first page of google for any keyword you even attempt to target for your niche.

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Old 05-13-2009, 01:49 PM   #40
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

Its not over....till the fat lady sings!...and she has not stepped onto the stage yet...unfortunately...

I hope she does soon...but not yet.
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Old 05-13-2009, 04:28 PM   #41
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

Spend, Spend, Spend.....Hey, we can just print
somemore...

Will be a long time until we see the end of this one.
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Old 05-13-2009, 04:40 PM   #42
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

This is so funny.

Back in March, I posted about Citigroup selling for a dollar and AIG selling for like 3 for a dollar. I jokingly proposed that McDonald's could save Wall St by offering stocks on their dollar menu. Of course those stocks went up like 300% shortly after that post.

Now I post about the possibility of the recession being over and right on queue, the stock market starts going down.

I'm becoming quite the Contrarian indicator LOL. If I keep this up, they're going to revoke my CFA designation.

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Old 05-13-2009, 05:04 PM   #43
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

What Recession?


I call it The Opportunity.


This is best time to help struggling people learn how to make money.

This is the best time to shop for almost anything!

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Old 05-13-2009, 05:05 PM   #44
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankRumbauskas View Post
What recession? My sales are at an all-time high. I'm being serious. The "recession" is a media-induced panic more than anything else. They had to start it to get their messiah Obama elected and now they're doing the follow-through to make it seem worse than it is, so in a few months they can say he "fixed" it and make him look like a hero.

There are two kinds of people affected by the recession:

1. Jerks who knowingly "bought" houses they couldn't afford, and who now deserve to lose them in foreclosure.

A lot of people were completely ripped off and lied to. Ever read an ARM document? Some people were guilty of being Ignorant, they are and will always be idiots. I own a mortgage company so I know what I speak. I did NOT market subprime mortgages, nor liar loans (No Documentation). I do mostly -A- paper, FHA, and Reverse mortgages.

The banks and Wall Street are the guilty, greedy whores who started this mess. Now the same whores who started this mess are getting Millions in bonuses plus the bailout money.



Keep in mind that foreclosures DO NOT affect normal people who bought a house as a place to live (not a lottery ticket) and who can afford the payments. If anything, the foreclosure wave will HELP you because if your home value drops temporarily, that means lower property taxes!

Wrong again. The entire planet is suffering because of the greed on Wall St. Your home has depreciated along with mine, so how do I not suffer when my home is worth $300,000 less than it did 2 years ago.

Lower property taxes, Wrong again. In many cities and states property taxes adjust every 3-5 years. Our property taxes will not adjust for another 2 years even though my house is worth $300k LESS.


2. Looters who expect to get something for nothing in the stock market. I go crazy in the gym because they have CNBC on some of the TVs and these whiny people call in, whining, "My money is just sitting in the bank and not growing." Umm... want your money to grow? it's called WORKING. Really, get a life people. Grow up. There's no such thing as something for nothing.

Most retiree's don't work. Are they supposed to join the work force again when unemployment is over 10% -15% in many areas?

In the end, those of use who are diligent and who work and who continue to provide value to others have nothing to worry about. From my point of view, everything is on sale right now - everything is cheap, and we're enjoying it to the fullest!

I work and make a ton of money, I own several brick and mortar businesses. However, most people are not in the same position as me. I have many family members who are suffering (globally) so I may need to help them out.
I have told the world since mid 2006 when I saw the mortgage apps that were getting approved that we were headed for disaster. I remember telling my brokers that we were headed for a Tsunami. I had no idea it would be this bad. It seems like we are getting hit with a Tsunami every week. To top if off we have a Socialist president who along with his tax cheating cronies wants to turn the US into France.

I'll do just fine, but I truly feel sorry for all the Children who will suffer the effects of their parents losing their jobs, getting divorced, being evicted from their homes, and turning their lives upside down because of GREED.

BTW, Tim Turbo Tax Cheat Geitner is in charge of Wall St where he grew up and all his friends are still there. Worst admininstration since Jimmy "Peanut" Carter.
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Old 05-13-2009, 05:12 PM   #45
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankRumbauskas View Post
What recession? My sales are at an all-time high. I'm being serious. The "recession" is a media-induced panic more than anything else. They had to start it to get their messiah Obama elected and now they're doing the follow-through to make it seem worse than it is, so in a few months they can say he "fixed" it and make him look like a hero.

There are two kinds of people affected by the recession:

1. Jerks who knowingly "bought" houses they couldn't afford, and who now deserve to lose them in foreclosure. Keep in mind that foreclosures DO NOT affect normal people who bought a house as a place to live (not a lottery ticket) and who can afford the payments. If anything, the foreclosure wave will HELP you because if your home value drops temporarily, that means lower property taxes!

2. Looters who expect to get something for nothing in the stock market. I go crazy in the gym because they have CNBC on some of the TVs and these whiny people call in, whining, "My money is just sitting in the bank and not growing." Umm... want your money to grow? it's called WORKING. Really, get a life people. Grow up. There's no such thing as something for nothing.

In the end, those of use who are diligent and who work and who continue to provide value to others have nothing to worry about. From my point of view, everything is on sale right now - everything is cheap, and we're enjoying it to the fullest!

Frank




Looters?

That would be CEOs getting bonuses for running a company into the dirt then begging for Corporate Welfare Bailout money from the average taxpayer while they continue to tax shelter.

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Old 05-13-2009, 05:42 PM   #46
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

As with anything you must know how it happened to truly comprehend the subject.

As some people stated before this whole mess has been building for years, signs were shown in late October 2007! But the feds quickly 'stimulated' the economy for awhile.

As stated before also, we've been building a massive bubble for the past 7 or more years. When signs of weekness show the feds try and make the bubble last longer, the sad reality is that it will only grow bigger and burst. And it has.

I'm not going to try and be an expert on what has happened, what is going to happen, or what will happen to America altogether but I do recommend everyone(yes everyone) to go and buy the book 'the trillion dollar meltdown.

It expalins how this has all happened, and it is really quite scary. It is based on the past and on facts not on the future and theories.

We are on another "mini bubble" now, as Ron said from(I believe) january-now we have seen a increase in the overall market by 30%.

We all know this won't last, we all know there are many hurrdles left. But again the Feds are pumping money into a system that can't just be "fixed" and giving everyone the false belief that things are all better now.

We're scared to endure a recession, but in reality we simply have to.

Foreign investors, think hedge funds with billions, are shying away from American investment and moving into more investments in EAST Euorpe and Africa. Japan is the only country left that is buying a growing amount (more and more every year) of U.S treasury bonds, but even they are slowly buying less now. Not that the bonds aren't appealing, but that there is far more money to be made investing in other sources.

Again I'm not an expert, as you can probably tell, but I do urge everyone to go out and buy the book and read it. It will shed light on the facts and hopefully make you re-think just how safe the economy is.

Zach

P.S- Just because the market is down does not mean there is no opportunity. When Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac failed I quickly bought the stock for literally 3 and 7 dollars and watched in go up 250%+ in the next few days.
The same thing happened to AIG etc etc...

As for me all my money is now parked in gold and silver certificates. Anyone who thinks your money is safe in the bank I incourage you to think again. Your 'money' is a currency. A currency that is protected by a country very deep in debt. The dollar has already fallen quite a bit and will honestly only continue to fall. (atleast in my mind)

P.P.S- I don't mean to sound very negative, like otheres have pointed out there is still lots of money to be made. The rules of money may change but that should never stop you from finding differnt ways to grow your profits.
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Old 05-13-2009, 06:04 PM   #47
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

Such arrogance in this thread. If you are doing well during this crisis, be grateful. The superiority complex isn't attractive.

Property taxes are the last thing to respond to falling values. My own went up 65% this year - because assessments are based on 2-3 years ago. Local governments won't reassess in a falling market - and they can always raise the millage rate. Their goal is money to run their government.

Many foreclosures now are fixed rate loans and families who have owned their homes (and paid for them) for years. No job = no income = no mortgage payment. Lenders are not modifying mortgages or attempting to help these homeowners - in spite of taking billions from the taxpayers for their own bailouts.

More and more commercial properties are standing vacant as small businesses continue to fail.

"The masses" may not know when the bottom is reached. They don't care until they see improvement in their own financial life.

It ain't over till it's over - and I don't hear the fat lady singing yet.

kay
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Old 05-13-2009, 08:26 PM   #48
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

This recession is going up and down week in, week out! i wouldnt think it is getting better any time soon.

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Old 05-13-2009, 09:25 PM   #49
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

Kay, thank you for writing that. It's great that people are doing well but there are many that are not. The recession has affected a ton of people. I've seen it first hand over the past few months while traveling throughout the states and while the media isn't helping any it's definitely far deeper than media-induced hype. What's laughable are some of the generalizations that have been made. Try telling that to all of the people that were flat-out lied to or the ones that have been laid off.

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Old 05-13-2009, 10:16 PM   #50
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Default Re: Is The Recession Over?

People react based on their perception of reality and not reality.

This also goes to why one's attitude toward life is more important than about anything else.

Do you think the light at the end of the tunnel is the end of the tunnel or a train bearing down on you?

This is why I like people like Dave Ramsey who suggests one is better off being financially independent of any dependence on government, or other people (like family or friends). That's why I love his expression "I am not participating in this recession".

So is the recession over?
What is the definition of a 'recession being over'?

Odds are 'no' by most peoples' definition. People often define recession by what is happening to them or family and friends.

And then you have the possibility of inflation coming. And having had lived through the high costs of borrowing in the Carter years, I hope those percentages never show up again.

I make necessary adjustments in dealing with various demograpic groups I sell to, but online business beats working for someone else and wondering about some elses' decisions. Multiple income streams really work!!

I'm so grateful I work for myself. I'm thankful I live in the USA. And I'm not participating in the recession or any other!!

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