Is there a currency crisis with the GBP, Euro and AUD?

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So far in current financial crisis, most attention has been concentrated on plunging stock, property, and commodity prices. Little has been mentioned about currencies. But the GBP, Euro and AUD seems to be collapsing. This could be just as serious for these economies as anything, as prices of foreign imports and inflation will definiately rise.

Change in Value Against the US Dollar from July 15, 2008 to October 16th

Australian dollar -26.9%
Brazilian real -24.4%
British pound -12.4%
Canadian dollar -13.6%
Euro -13.6%
Japanese yen +2.2%
Mexican peso -15.9%
New Zealand dollar -18.8%
South African rand -17.6%
Swiss franc -11.1%

The collapse of other currencies in relation to USD does not make much sense to me. It seems that speculators have been borrowing money in low yield currencies such as the USD and YEN to speculate on higher yielding ones such as GBP, AUD and Euros. Now the latter economies seem to be in trouble, the speculators are unwinding their positions in a panic and thus driving up the USD and YEN. Therefore, this seems another example of leveraged greed that may end up doing untold damage.

-Derek
  • Profile picture of the author Kay King
    Of course the markets have caused instability in currentcy markets - to be expected.

    However, one thing is that the dollar has started rebounding from previous lows. For a long time, marketers here have been complaining about the low value of the dollar - now they're complaining about the higher value.

    Currencies - and markets - fluctuate.

    kay
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    • Profile picture of the author myob
      I would not say it's a crisis; the currencies are volatile because of the markets. The forex speculation is also a major factor.
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  • Profile picture of the author derekwong28
    I always suspected that these currencies were overvalued. If you look at their house prices in some of these countries, they are way above those in the US.

    The issue here is really the speed of the fall, especially with regards to the Australian dollar. Looking back at the Asian Financial Crissi of 1997-8. It is the collapse of currencies rather than that of stocks and property that was the most important feature. However, it seemed that those whose currencies collapsed recovered faster than those that did not. Similarly the US economy was helped by exports earlier this year when the USD was low. The Japanese and Chinese must be looking at this in horror right now.

    I think it is completely possible that you may see a sudden collapse in one or more major currencies so that we get a full blown crisis. This would push the existing financial crisis into a new and potentially much more damaging dimension. This could well be the next part of the horror show.

    I wonder what do the warriors from the UK, Europe and Australia think? I know you are probably happy right now with the extra earnings in terms of your local currency right now. But what if your currency falls much further and you get raging inflation as a result. What if you suddenly find foreign travel extremely expensive? What exchange rate level would you be happy at?

    -Derek
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    • Profile picture of the author Mike Wright
      Investors worldwide are divesting/selling foreign investments.
      The $US was down, stocks and commodities are down, now
      other currencies are falling.

      Just a consequence of taking defensive positions with minimum
      risk.

      As for the UK, consumers and companies are minimising costs
      and spending significantly. Unemployment is rising and companies
      are contracting production etc. A whole wave of bankrupcies
      looks to be imminent. Property values are still falling.

      When other countries are also cutting back on foreign spending
      and investments, then this time round there may not be much of
      the usual upside to falling currency values.

      Way toooo many changes to make economic projections with
      any degree of certainty until after the US elections and the
      global economic engines start to function reasonably.

      Nobody has any real clue as to when things will actually bottom out
      or an upturn may happen after that. The predictions that I have
      heard seem to range wildly from 3 to 36 months. My guess lies
      in the high end of those at best .... as far as ordinary people
      are concerned.

      Who knows??????
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  • Profile picture of the author Alexa Smith
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    • Profile picture of the author finn
      It's a bit of a worry . . . our dollar was trading up to 96c US about a month ago - now down to about 66c US, which means all our imports are going up in price (funny that they didn't come down that much when the dollar was up!)

      Like everywhere else - interest rates keep rising - although the banks got a cut a week or so ago - just haven't passed it on to the public! The government keeps telling us that our banks are much safer and more regulated than those overseas, but I can't really see it.
      House prices are going down, unemployment's on the rise and you wonder what the hell is going on - as we had all these interest rate increases in the last few months to 'curb inflation' cos we're all spending too much money. Now the government is backing the banks and we got a 1% cut or thereabouts to try and bolster up the economy and encourage spending! I don't pay too much attention as I don't have stocks or a home loan, but I DO know that everything is getting way too expensive!
      I know the whole thing has been rigged (been reading the no-nonsense thread for the last year) but it doesn't help in your day to day life!
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  • Profile picture of the author derekwong28
    I find sudden currency collapses much more alarming and destabilising than property and stock market collapses. For a start, everybody feels it immediately, not only those holding property and stocks. This is what you are seeing in Iceland when their currency have already halved this year and is expected to fall even further. It is quite possible that we are just about to see the worse part of the financial crisis being played out.
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    • Profile picture of the author bryce
      Here in Aus, our official inflation rate was posted last week at a massive 5%. Although it was predicted since the global collapse, it does little to contain peoples fears of an impending crisis.

      House prices are falling, already by 10% in the last 30 days in certain areas, and senior economists can be heard to profess that the prices will fall by as much as 40% over the upcoming 12 - 18 months. Job losses have already started to eventuate, with some major employers heading into dark times. Again some economists have recently predicted that our unemployment rate will hit 15% over the next year and a half.

      Our reserve bank has issued massive cuts in official lending rates to try and stimulate consumer spending, and some retailers are already quoting as much as 70% reduction in consumer spending compared with the same time last year.

      I am a realist and aside from the expected volatility of all markets, I believe that we are in for a long and bumpy ride with this one, and I also believe that anyone glossing over the reality of where we are today, has a hidden agenda. The world economy is in serious trouble, and it all started with the greed of a select few. It is high time we, as a global community, took action against these people, and took greater control of our own money.

      For starters, take a leaf out of my mothers book, "NEVER borrow money, and NEVER live beyond your means" This way you should NEVER experience financial issues of the kind most are facing now.
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      • Profile picture of the author Ron Kerr
        Originally Posted by bryce View Post

        Here in Aus, our official inflation rate was posted last week at a massive 5%. Although it was predicted since the global collapse, it does little to contain peoples fears of an impending crisis.

        House prices are falling, already by 10% in the last 30 days in certain areas, and senior economists can be heard to profess that the prices will fall by as much as 40% over the upcoming 12 - 18 months. Job losses have already started to eventuate, with some major employers heading into dark times. Again some economists have recently predicted that our unemployment rate will hit 15% over the next year and a half.

        Our reserve bank has issued massive cuts in official lending rates to try and stimulate consumer spending, and some retailers are already quoting as much as 70% reduction in consumer spending compared with the same time last year.

        I am a realist and aside from the expected volatility of all markets, I believe that we are in for a long and bumpy ride with this one, and I also believe that anyone glossing over the reality of where we are today, has a hidden agenda. The world economy is in serious trouble, and it all started with the greed of a select few. It is high time we, as a global community, took action against these people, and took greater control of our own money.

        For starters, take a leaf out of my mothers book, "NEVER borrow money, and NEVER live beyond your means" This way you should NEVER experience financial issues of the kind most are facing now.

        Things are tougher than they were but not as bad as you make out. I don't know where that 15% unemployment figure came from as it does not reflect what I have heard from any economist.

        Unfortunately a lot of economic activity is dependant upon confidence and all these doom and gloom reports just make things worse. In fact, in Australia the problem was started by the idiots in government who did not have the courage to accept that the previous coalition government did a good economic job and kept moaning about problems they supposedly inherited. Now they are telling how strong the economy is!

        I am sure your mother is a fine person Bryce but there would be very little economic activity if businesses and consumers did not borrow; the trick is to borrow responsibly and many consumers have become greedy in recent times, borrowing too much for houses and cars that they really could not afford. Of course, many lenders were greedy also and lent foolishly.

        I think the answer to a lot of this is that we need to do things in moderation - eat, drink, borrow, etc. and it is when be are not moderate in our behavior we suffer the consequences.
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      • Profile picture of the author Rob Perks
        Well said.

        My questions on all this is how come the leading countries around the world are in debt?

        Us Deficit = $9Trillion+++


        And who are they in-debt to?

        It don't make sense. As so many other global issues out there.

        Someone is continuously holding aces up their sleeves and it ain't fair.

        The Amero is coming and that is going to come in on the wake of the financial crisis.

        Asia is next. Just Google it and you can find all the official and unofficial documents about all this.

        With knowledge comes power, but only together real changes are possible.

        -Rob
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    • Profile picture of the author DBryan78324
      Originally Posted by derekwong28 View Post

      I find sudden currency collapses much more alarming and destabilising than property and stock market collapses. For a start, everybody feels it immediately, not only those holding property and stocks. This is what you are seeing in Iceland when their currency have already halved this year and is expected to fall even further. It is quite possible that we are just about to see the worse part of the financial crisis being played out.
      I agree with you on the worse part of it being played out. I've noticed that EUR/USA this week has not been as wild as it was in Oct. 2008. Hope it is all settling down, time will only tell...
      Dave
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  • Profile picture of the author Leanne King
    The Aussie dollar took a sharp drop which really caused me to fall off my chair when looking at the currency exchange. However, after the US election it seems to be edging up. I'm too scared too look at the moment

    Leanne
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  • Profile picture of the author derekwong28
    The GBP has just fallen through the $1.50 barrier. The aussie seems to have resumed its slide at $0.645, and the Euro is at $1.256

    If these is anything else wrong with the current financial system, surely huge currency swings is one of them. Just why would major countries and continents be worth up to a third less within a few months?

    Derek
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    • Profile picture of the author Rob Perks
      Hey Derek

      Believe it or not. But these swings are caused by a select few of international bankers who have cornered the market.

      Basically a monopoly and we are all dancing to their music.

      It's getting worse as they have stated in their documents. They are looking to create a world currency, and government.

      Don't believe me, look for yourself and get empowered.

      Best regards,
      -Rob
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      • Profile picture of the author John Henderson
        According to the evening news, £1=$1.50 and £1=€1.20

        Well, fellow Brits... let's get exporting!!!
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      • Profile picture of the author Rob Perks
        Originally Posted by p1a1u1l1 View Post

        To be honest I don't think the one world government & currency could ever come about, maybe a one western currency and government.

        Do you really think russia, china, india and middle east are all just going to bow do what the west wants. The only thing that will come out of all this is another world war.

        -paul
        No, I don't see Russia or China bowing down and we can see that the USA's empire is beinbg extended in the middle east.

        But, if you had asked me 15 years would the free peoples of the world give up their "god given constitutional rights" in the name of freedom I would have said no to that too.

        But in light of recent global events and situations, the men engineering our destinies and futures don't look to be stopping any time soon.

        Let's remember this little chat when the global financial crisis hits home to us in Aus and around the world. What we are seeing now is just what is they want us to see and experience. Enough fear and worry to keep you from looking at the truth.

        Try this tonight as a little experiment.

        Take out a dollar bill and see whether it states it is government owned or just issued as legal tender?

        I am not trying to pick a fight here or anything else, except to truthfully inform fellow warriors of what I know to be the truth.

        -Rob
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        • Profile picture of the author Mike Wright
          As far as the financial markets are concerned, currencies are just
          commodities like oil or coffee. If everyone is selling, then the price
          or value drops relative to alternatives.

          A barrel of oil is still a barrel of oil whatever the price. Same
          goes for currencies in their own country.

          The problems arise when unregulated freemarket activities
          combine to produce consequences outside a reasonable
          trading ballpark .... either through excessive greed or
          excessive prudence. The current recession is due to a
          combination of both excesses producing the worst scenario.

          Only a fool kills the goose that lays golden eggs!
          Therefore, regulation will be required to prevent
          fools from trashing the national and global economies.

          The EU and UK plus others like China and Russia have
          found some basis for resolving the problems. Perhaps
          it is time for the US also to modify its John Wayne
          philosophy in these respects.

          Some interesting discussions on these matters are
          being held this weekend .... hosted by that lauded
          economist GW Bush. We shall see what ensues :rolleyes:
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          • Profile picture of the author Dave Patterson
            Originally Posted by Mike Wright View Post

            .... hosted by that lauded
            economist GW Bush. We shall see what ensues :rolleyes:

            Mike...

            I think you should seriously consider an Internet Pay-Per-View Comedy Video Show...
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            • Profile picture of the author Rob Perks
              Last weeks G-20 meeting was a joke and something for the M-A-S-S-E-S, to help ease the on-coming pain and financial slaughter.

              Here's Max Keiser to tell you all about it....


              If you think this ain't enough for you then have a look at what

              Gerald Celent has to say here....



              Get prepared.

              -Rob
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              • Profile picture of the author derekwong28
                It looks like we have entered a second phase with the GBP. The pound now is less than 1.40

                "The UK is finished" according to Jim Rodgers, who was the partner of Soros

                http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...yLA&refer=home

                http://seekingalpha.com/article/1154...e-u-k-finished
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                • Profile picture of the author ExRat
                  Hi Derek,

                  Thanks, interesting reading.

                  Our government is a loose cannon, the equivalent of a runaway train.

                  Yes, our housing market is in a spot of bother, completely overpriced market and many people are experiencing negative equity.

                  I heard that a recent German government bond issue failed...I'm not an expert in these things by any stretch, but apparently it's when that happens, they have to print more money, inflation sets in and the fan gets hit...
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  • Profile picture of the author Li Weng
    The Australian Dollar is at an ALL TIME LOW. Not a great time to travel for aussies.
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  • Profile picture of the author DBryan78324
    Has anyone used Pipzu or forex funnel robots? Been reading some reviews on them and the two of them seem to be either in number one place or number two place in the reviews. The robot I am using now is very undependable, and always seems to go the wrong direction for awhile and then it will switch and go the right direction only about 50% of the time. I lose more money with it then I make. Would appreciate some feed back on these two programs or one that is better then these two.
    Thanks
    Dave
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  • Profile picture of the author artwebster
    There was a time when currency was just that - something with which to buy things by creating an arbitrary market value for commodities available.

    This worked well for hundreds of years while currencies were pinned to the value of gold (or whatever benchmark was used in the region)

    Once currency also became a commodity, it ceased to be of fixed value and became subject to the laws of supply and demand which aggravated any value fluctuations created by the gold market.

    There are very few countries that do not have a national debt. Either there has been some fancy creative accountaning to enable the many governments to charge more taxes or all those countries in debt owe them to banks or little green men.
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  • Profile picture of the author derekwong28
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