Computers in 10 years? Crystal Ball predictions???

Steve, I'm showing my age here. Basically its a story I heard at a computer conference many years ago. Basically at the turn of the previous century people purchased electric motors and used them in the home for a variety of things. Sears even advertised them in the catalog since home owners and small businesses had need for many different motors.

But as electric motors grew smaller and more powerful, and grid electricy became more readily available, businesses began to put the motors into a variety of things - like the ice box - so people no longer had to buy an electric motor to run a compressor to make the ice box cold - they just had to buy the appliance they wanted(what we today call a fridge or whatever- there's a trademark lesson there too but I'm already way off topic and close to hijackig the thread).

In fact the present or said at the show (it was like 20+ years ago) that someday you would not need a stand alone computer to read/send email which at the time was the killer app of the net. His prediction came true much sooner than he thought! My iPhone has more memory and computing power than my first Tandy 1000 did. Heck - my 24 inch display probably has more processing power - I know it has more memory in its cache.

And as you said, with computers we're already seeing this everyday. In fact I have several appliances in my home with not only a CPU(computer) but its own freaking IP tied into my home router. I don't need to buy a separate computer for them - they already have them inside.

I use to buy a lot of bit slice processors and later FPGAs to do a lot of things - but its far cheaper to just buy the items themselves now adays than to build or even buy you're own computer for what we oldies called embedded systems. Ah - this brings back the smell of frying gate arrays and hearing an engineer swearing at the top of his/her lungs after frying a $500 Xylinx....off topic even more, but that's where the term smoke test comes from - if you bring a system online and it doesn't go up in smoke - its a good day.

but I digress, and like a bad joke - if you have to explain it then you(meaning I) messed up - so apologies for that.

g'night.
--Jack

In 10 years, maybe they'll finally be able to make a decent cup of coffee. I mean, those things can find all prime numbers from 1 to 1.0x10^100, and yet it can't make coffee! I think the programmers had the wrong idea in mind!

I think the 10 year estimate is over stating things a bit. The Stealth bomber/fighter used relatively common stuff, even the fly by wire and assistance wasn't new or unique. The delta plan went back DECADES and the basis for the stealth technology was DECADES old. The hard part was just doing what the wanted to get the smallest footprint. The computers can't even be that special considering that it has FOUR, and needs THREE to fly.

The SR71 was pretty good. I mean created in the 1960s and apparently they STILL don't have anything to really replace it. Still, outside of the intentionally mal fitting parts, and POWERFUL engines, is it really THAT special? The parts were made to not fit together well so that the intense heat generated by it going so fast would actually cause things to fit, and run well, as opposed to blowing up.

And they supposedly had the eximer LASER over 10 years before the public. The first computer used in the US was created by the company that was to become IBM FOR the government.

Apparently, they STILL use old fashioned weapons technology, though it IS amazing how it has been tweaked, etc... If not for the expense, and the fact that it was outlawed, the american public could probably get it at any gun shop. But what citizen needs a weapon that is fully automatic, can shoot over a mile, and go through a bullet proof vest and STILL pack a very painful and lethal impact. AGAIN though, made FOR, NOT by, the government.

As for GPS? YEP, the government had that LONG before the public. In fact, supposedly, there is a band that, last I heard, had an accuracy of about 3 feet. And that was LONG ago. Apparently, civilians STILL don't have access to that. But you have to wonder who created THAT.

And OF COURSE they still have control of the satellites. The government COULD see things in near real time if they wanted.

HECK, want to have an idea of REALITY? Look at the commercials for the military where they start out looking like SCI-FI, and then say they do that every day. YEP they can do that, just like they say. It would probably make any technophile salivate, but STILL can you say it is using technology that is 10 years in the future? I mean we use similar technology in civilian areas. Its not as big or destructive, and may not be as accurate, but it still works the same.

Steve