Economy is going down...

If you know anything about the economy, New York is climbing up really fast at the moment now. (According to New York Times)

What are you Talkin about Over here thing's have been looking Great, Unfortunatly.
Our Dollar Keeps Rising, US/Euro/GBP Keep GOing Down, Good Stuff

I say Unfortunatly, because any income I make is Generally US Dollar's & before would be more $ + % But out Dollar Keeps Creeping up.

Its always like this before a world war .. oops

I am pretty convinced that most of the developed world is heading for a "lost decade"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_(Japan)

On February 9, 2009, in warning of the dire consequences facing the United States economy after its housing bubble, U.S. President Barack Obama cited the "lost decade" as a prospect the American economy faced.

One mitigating factor is that the bubble in US and Europe was no where as bad as it was in Japan.

Right now, the only bright spot is China and other emerging markets. However, China does have its own property bubble. But at least, it is recognzed by its government who have put in place a number of clamping measures. If not, the bubble would have been much higher by now.

Diversify, diversify, diversify.
And yukon, it started with the crash in the early 1990's.
That's when King Kong fell from the Empire State Building, so to speak, and all the rules changed.

Interestingly enough ,and I wish I could remember where I saw it,but I can't, I saw where they say our last recession ended in 2009.
<cough>bullcrap<cough>

Kiwi land boomed from about 1994 right through to 2007.

Man it was great. You could be flat broke, get out of bed, walk down the street & pick from 3-4 jobs. I loved it.

90's everybody was a software developer & the newspaper had 5-6 pages full of IT job classifieds. Young people were doing a few weeks training and walking straight into 50k a year jobs.

But the whole thing was BS and had to fall over, when it did it was obvious to me the money (much of it drug money) would be moved into property & construction.

This was the "bounce" the secondary market peak before the real crash which we have now experienced.

In reality the western economies should have collapsed, but the bailouts have prolonged the death pangs.

What happens next ? We are all in debt up to out ears. It will not continue - there will be a total collapse !!!

The bail outs were like sticking a pacemaker into a dude about to croak. But the pacemaker only lasts for a short time.

Usually when the snake is cornered it bites. And we are the big snake here in the western world.

We are armed to the hilt (collectively) & we are used to being top dog. The western world will not simply shrivel and die amid the excrement of social decline.

More likely the final military conflict between east and west. Thats been put off even longer than fixing the economy.

I predict the economic crisis will result in a huge and catastrophic world war.

How else do we escape our debt & control the ever compounding escalation of crime & social subversion ?

Terrorism is merely an evolution of multiple crime waves. Otherwise anarchy & social collapse will end democracy within 20 years.

Thats what the Chinese & Russians want to happen.

I see the following happening:

1. The global economy totally collapsing within the next 6 years (no bailout this time)

2. Covert state sponsored terror attack of high magnitude against US or Europe

3. A:Collapse of democracy in west, or B: global military conflict 2016-2020 period

B: If there is a global conflict it will go NBC & there will be potentially a mass extinction event. There will also be a technological singularity as a consequence.

A: If western society & democracy collapse singularity technologies will potentially be in the hands of criminals and terrorists. Oppressive governments will actively suppress singularity for the mass population.

hmm... the only way i can see us coming back on top!! like HUUUGE is if we go to war. and this time come back with resources (iraq mistake) lol

Official unemployment rates (which are compiled only from those drawing unemployment benefits) are in the double digits - and actual is figured as high as 30% in some areas. We are still breaking records for home foreclosures........yet I hear talk of ANOTHER recession? When the hell did the first one go away? Just because we aren't tanking as fast at some times than we are at other times, doesn't mean recovery and it doesn't mean that we aren't still on a downward spiral. It's the same recession with one exception -- economic crises of this size USED to be called depression. I see euphemizing situations does seem to have the desired effect on the population's thinking.

I tend to follow Elliot wave theory. But I do concede that it is not an infinite loop. At some stage the theory will cease to apply. It is a socio economic predictor so when human decision making no longer guides the economy at all then Elliot wave theory will stop working. This should happen with the emergence of general AI in 10 - 20 years time.

But right now the Elliot wave prediction is economic collapse and triple digit DJIA.

This is to happen by 2016.

His Tv Show got canceled after like 3 episodes. It was a hearfelt show, but I honestly couldn't get into dealing with other peoples problems right now. IMO it seemed like he was trying to say to everyone that they could have it much worse so they shouldn't be upset about their lives. I don't think Americans want to hear that right now.

This was a great post ONG. I love this. He's dealing with reality and not trying to put a positive spin on things.

I am aware of and have read the report that was released about the recession. When they say the recession has officially ended (towards the end of 2009), these economists have a different definition of this than what the average person on the street might think. What the economists mean by 'the recession has ended' is that the economy reached its lowest point in 2009, and it does NOT mean that the economy has recovered to pre-recession levels. It could take many years before we get back to pre-recession levels in the economy, and I don't think anyone reputable is making any bold predictions about exactly when it'll happen!

A double-dip recession is possible but most people now believe it's very unlikely. Furthermore Tony Robbins is a motivational speaker. I wouldn't listen to him about the economy just like I would ask him to do surgery on my knee.

Don't expect any recovery in the next 5 years.

As for manufacturing - how does a nation maintain national security if it has no manufacturing base ?

The nation with the lead in manufacturing has dominance militarily.

So you must ask was the "service based economy" hogwash aimed at undermining the US military industrial complex ?

That is what is about to happen. In the next 10 years possibly but there is one thing that can reverse all of this and its nano-technology.

If IC's could be manufactured on the desktop and products could be nano-produced on the desktop the whole industrial world and manufacturing will change forever.

Essentially manufacturing would cease to be of central economic significance as people could do it all over the world in networked projects.

Robotics & advanced AI both of which will be revolutionized in the next 10 - 15 years will also turn all of the present trends in manufacturing upside down.

Robotics & AI will also undermine any advantage held by India & China in terms of population.

Quite simply in 20 years time you will be able to manufacture devices and products at home on demand. People & factories will network to create larger projects.

There will at some stage be more robots than people - robots that are more intelligent than people.

These "robots" will function as consumers within the economy just as humans do.

Don't doubt for one second that this will happen - every car will be a robot - there are more cars than people already.

If anything can save our ass its robotics, AI & nanotech.

It is well known fact that in deep recesssions, companies and the rich recover much faster than ordinary people. For one, the cost of doing business is lower.

As to the next trigger, I am quite convinced it will be China. Their stimulus has gone completely haywire. Not only is that package much larger than the US in comparison to the size of their economy. They also forced their banks to lend indiscriiminately as well. A lot of that money has gone into building more manufacturing capacity even though the demand had not recover fully in the Europe and US. There is also a massive property bubble. No country has grown at such a fast rate for such a long period of time without a massive correction.

For economic advice you can trust, stay far away from the Krugmans and Bernankes.

The FED created this depression with their 'quantitative easing', creating malinvestments such as the subprime loan bubble.

If you want to know what's really going on in the economy, I recommend reading and listening to everything Ron Paul and Peter Schiff.

Then its time to be tough.