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The Giant, Underestimated Earthquake Threat to North America

by MoneyMagnetMagnate
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The enormous fault off the coast of the Pacific Northwest has been silent for three centuries. But after years of detective work, geologists have discovered that it can unleash mayhem on an epic scale.

by Jerry Thompson From the Extreme Earth special issue; published online March 13, 2012

The Giant, Underestimated Earthquake Threat to North America | Natural Disasters | DISCOVER Magazine

Just over one year ago, a magnitude-9 earthquake hit the Tohoku region of northeastern Japan, triggering one of the most destructive tsunamis in a thousand years. The Japanese—the most earthquake-prepared, seismically savvy people on the planet—were caught off-guard by the Tohoku quake’s savage power. Over 15,000 people died.

Now scientists are calling attention to a dangerous area on the opposite side of the Ring of Fire, the Cascadia Subduction Zone, a fault that runs parallel to the Pacific coast of North America, from northern California to Vancouver Island.

This tectonic time bomb is alarmingly similar to Tohoku, capable of generating a megathrust earthquake at or above magnitude 9, and about as close to Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver as the Tohoku fault is to Japan’s coast.

Decades of geological sleuthing recently established that although it appears quiet, this fault has ripped open again and again, sending vast earthquakes throughout the Pacific Northwest and tsunamis that reach across the Pacific.

What happened in Japan will probably happen in North America. The big question is when.
  • Profile picture of the author tsuccess
    I wonder will it happen...only God knows.
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  • Profile picture of the author yukon
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    Originally Posted by MoneyMagnetMagnate View Post

    But after years of detective work, geologists have discovered that it can unleash mayhem on an epic scale.
    If they watched TV or movies they would have known about this years ago, without the detective work, lol.
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  • Profile picture of the author Kurt
    We always hear about the San Andreas...but the Cascadia and New Mardrid are just as scary, if not more so.
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    • Profile picture of the author MoneyMagnetMagnate
      Originally Posted by Kurt View Post

      We always hear about the San Andreas...but the Cascadia and New Mardrid are just as scary, if not more so.
      You got that right - this geologist contends that, even though the Japanese are the most earthquake prepared country on Earth - the were totally off guard last year, because they did not look far back enough...

      According to this study, Cascadia on average has gone off every 240yrs, and it has been 312 since it last went off...not much in geologic time, but remember May 18th, 1980...they underestimated that too...we won't get fooled again.

      I don't think this is trying to predict doomsday prophesy...just educated speculation.
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      • Profile picture of the author Kay King
        I'm not a geologist nor do I pretend to be one - but the Ring of Fire the articles discusses is also the main area of geothermal energy in the world.

        I've read other articles that theorize the lack of earthquake activity may in part be due to the energy released naturally by the geothermal fields which allow more movement and release of pressure than around some other plates.

        I have to wonder if it's possible to build any structure that will have a chance of surviving the worst possible earthquake that could potentially occur. At some point the cost to build would exceed the usefulness of a facility.

        kay
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  • Profile picture of the author Patrician
    With all due respect to the Japanese 'the most prepared' sure did put their foot in it with the nuclear reactors and the subsequent fallout that their 'preparedness' caused - you would think somebody who was 'prepared' would have had that covered as their first priority.

    Yeah I know, stronger than they thought it would be. Nonetheless, something that important to the whole planet (we now have the fallout in California soil, water, etc at 'safe' levels) uhhahaha what ever that is...

    As for the lack of catastrophic size quakes in recent decades it is supposedly a true statement that smaller quakes and activity that happen all the time serve to reduce the pressure that builds up over time that would otherwise create 'the big one'.

    I have lived on the San Andreas all of my life and finding out about lots of other faults that all connect here that nobody ever talked about before they produce small (so far) quakes.

    I keep saying I need to leave the coast - but the only other places that appeal to me are Washington and Oregon and they are in just as much jeopardy (geopardy) as California -- of course they are not as 'left coast' otherwise at least...

    I would hate to live where they have constant (annual) tornadoes and hurricanes and would feel much more vulnerable there.

    So I figure if it is time to go it is time to go and I would rather be looking at the water for as long as I can.
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  • Profile picture of the author rayray7
    Scare me not! People have been predicting the end of the world for ages. Never fear death and never let it hold you back. Think about the good things that are possible and you will have fun. Leave the worrying to the doomsayers.
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  • Profile picture of the author HeySal
    Cascadia is much more frightening than Madrid, Kurt. However - both are nothing less than daunting.

    Cascadia goes off in clusters - we are at a time that we are over due for a major quake in the Cascadia. The last major quake was in 1710 and it sent a tsunami to Japan and up and down our W coast that would have resulted in millions of deaths had it happened today. It is past due to erupt just at a time when we are experiencing crustal shift from a magnetic pole shift. Not good news.

    Seattle. How many millions? It sits on sediment with a fault line that connects directly to the subduction zone running right through the middle of town. It also runs 1,500 miles from BC all the way to the San Andreas, which if proven to actually hook to it, could send that into cataclysmic convulsions as well when it goes.

    The last quake, they believe, was a 9 mag. The area produces 8 and 9 mags every couple hundred years. A 9 magnitude quake in that region will devastate Seattle, Vancouver and Portland (Tsunamis), San Fransisco and possibly even as far south as LA. Japan will take another hit. Very possible damage to the Alaskan coastal area may also be in line with tsunami waters.

    There have been clusters of small quakes emanating from just west of the zone periodically over the last few years. One, not too long ago had scientists gritting their teeth and awaiting the big blow. We got lucky. There is no doubt the ocean floor is spreading in that region, which means that the lower plate is being pushed, so it's just a matter of time before the hold snaps.

    The ground rock also contains much silica, so the slippage will be fast and very possibly very great. In the past, thousands of years ago, a fault line snapped in the central portion of Oregon, also containing much silica. One side of that fault dropped 2,500 feet in a matter of seconds. If the fault running through the center of Seattle pulled that one.......well.....there's no way to shore a building to make it safe from a thousand foot plummet.

    The good news is that they think that Yellowstone - the other disaster threat in America that could take down major portions of the world with it - has unhooked from its heat source. While it is still extremely hot, it is losing heat. It can still blow, but the pressure is easing so it won't be as great as it could have been.

    Feel better?
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    • Profile picture of the author Kay King
      Pat -

      As bad as they can be - I prefer hurricanes to tornadoes and earthquakes. At least you have some warning and can get out of the way.
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  • Profile picture of the author Patrician
    Yes, that's true, Kay. and hurricanes are less frequent than tornadoes (right?)-

    I guess it is tornadoes that are just swarming the country this year (and quite frequently it seems the last few years - - or maybe I just never noticed before.)

    The vast majority of earthquakes are minor rock n roll and everybody feels a little creepy for a few days wondering if it was a foreshock or aftershock and then they forget about it.

    I have lived here in 'earthquake country' all my life as I said and only been in one bad one (1989 in SF).

    ... but there is always that little niggling fear of the 'big one' that Thank God has so far never come since 1906 in SF -

    I don't know why more people don't freak out. I guess we are mentally sound here in California -HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    now that IS a big one! (fat lie)
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  • Profile picture of the author MoneyMagnetMagnate
    Yup - if Yellowstone pops...were ALL goners! But Cascadia is a possibility that may become a possibility sooner that later...I love the Northern Pacific Coast - but in this case fortunately...it is also one of the most remote places on earth...not that San Andreas isn't bad either...I've seen what that can do...St. Helens too...
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    • Profile picture of the author HeySal
      Originally Posted by MoneyMagnetMagnate View Post

      Yup - if Yellowstone pops...were ALL goners! But Cascadia is a possibility that may become a possibility sooner that later...I love the Northern Pacific Coast - but in this case fortunately...it is also one of the most remote places on earth...not that San Andreas isn't bad either...I've seen what that can do...St. Helens too...
      Washington is an incredibly interesting state from a geological perspective. The ecosystems it supports as a result of the unique geological history is also spectacular. I have lived in the central regions of the state and love to visit. The crust is composed of blocks - each being a mini-plate that collided with the mainland forever and a day ago, and the ecosystems of these blocks are still distinct from one another after all this time. It's just an enthralling place to explore.
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      • Profile picture of the author MoneyMagnetMagnate
        Originally Posted by HeySal View Post

        Washington is an incredibly interesting state from a geological perspective. The ecosystems it supports as a result of the unique geological history is also spectacular. I have lived in the central regions of the state and love to visit. The crust is composed of blocks - each being a mini-plate that collided with the mainland forever and a day ago, and the ecosystems of these blocks are still distinct from one another after all this time. It's just an enthralling place to explore.
        You're a geologist/rockhound Sal, you must be familiar with the Glacier Flood that covered E. Washington (Missoula Floods - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia) there are probably some pretty cool formations resulted from that in the Columbia basin...
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  • Profile picture of the author HeySal
    I'm familiar with the flow line. Yes, there's interesting formations. There's also a lot of areas that if you have some time, you can find Mammoth bones where they washed to the banks after being carried by the flood waters. I didn't really get to scout for those, though I was there long enough to pick up some nice petrified wood in areas. The canyons can be formidable with very vertical walls. Moses Coolie and Grand Coolie were formed by that flood. I didn't get North any further that far east, but Okanogan county (sp?), west of the old flood plane, was pretty spectacular in it's own right. I got chased by a grizzly. That was a dicey little mishap. lol. The animals up there are completely unafraid of humans it is so remote. Loved it.
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