My Lord! Talk about gloom and doom

It's quite difficult to predict the stock market but it always pays up in the long run.

At least you hope it'll pay off in the long run. Times are changing.

Anyone with Berkshire Hathaway stock (Warren Buffet) must be blowing valves right now. I've been following it since it was $30,000 per SHARE. Over the next ten to fifteen years it rose to $151,000 per share (!)

But when the real estate bubble burst and the corporate greed and mismanagement came out into the light and everything began to go to hell, Berkshire Hathaway fell just like everything else, and it's now around $90,000 per share, a $60,000 loss!

Warren Buffet has lost billions, and it doesn't look like things are going to turn around any time soon, and may get worse before they get better. So do you hang on or do you sell out and get what you can before it gets worse?

Tough call that I don't have to make because I didn't buy into it in the first place. I still have cash liquidity and I only lose when the value of the dollar falls. (Which is still a tenuous position since the dollar is not backed up by the gold standard any more.)

I must admit I am really scared right now. I am wondering whether I should sell some stocks towards paying for my mortgage. The big problem is that my mortage rate is only 2.45% and the stock dividend is almost 5%. The last shares I bought were HSBC and I am sick in the stomach right now.

I am very worried about what the US and other governments are doing. They are printing money indiscriminately. Argentina collapsed when its debt reached 60% of its GDP but US debt is now at 100%. The only difference is that the US is much bigger and the US$ is the reserve currency of the world. But if you look at the UK, it is clearly not getting away with it as the GBP has crashed.

Another thread asked if Warren Buffet Twitters. I thought to myself, heck, Warren Buffet doesn't even blink in a bad economy!

I'd do what you can to limit any further losses, even if it means selling out. At least you'll have better liquidity and won't need to worry about losing even more if things go south (they likely will continue in that direction for the foreseeable future, that's what my crystal ball tells me. It's always correct. I bought it at the dollar store. :rolleyes

Even at the current price, it might be a good idea to start buying up gold. Bullion, coins, doesn't matter (maybe not gold stocks). Gold is going to keep going up. That's a solid long term investment.

Right now U.S. real estate might be a good idea. Chinese investors have been making trips to the U.S. to buy up foreclosed homes at bargain prices. What does that tell you?

Call it irrational or not, I am just scared that we are to see something so bad that it happens once in a lifetime. We have all read about the Great Depression and 2nd World War in books. Call it 2012 or God's punishment for human greed if you will, but I just can't get this out of my mind.

The other day, I saw a Chinese film about the life of the wealthy Kung Ku master who lost everything during the Japanese invasion of China. It reminds me what happened to my mother's family during the same period. They were one of the richest families in Hong Kong but were forced to sell off a lot of family silver in order to buy rice. All schools were closed during that period and both my mother and father missed out several years of education.

What may cap this off is a huge natural disaster or a gigantic infectious disease pandemic such as flu. Ten years ago, we had a depression in Hong Kong during the Asian Financial Crisis. Althouth the economy made a tentative recovery, it got hit again by the SARS crisis in 2003.

For those of you who don't know what living under SARS was like. You are afraid to go out and congregate in crowded areas. Everybody wore a mask and it was as if whole city is under siege. The current crisis sure brings back bad memories for me.

If are in the US, at least you can get close to food. Here in Hong Kong, we are a city that is completely closed off and depends on others for our food.


Derek

Well, you've got two choices, to worry about it or to not worry about it.

Rather than worry about something, I choose to do what I can to limit the damage to myself and my family if what I worry about actually happens. (It usually doesn't happen.) Granted, there are a lot of still-unknown variables, but doing something is almost always better than doing nothing. A wait-and-see attitude may end up leaving you hanging when the chips fall.

Something as simple as the grocery stores not being able to get more food to restock the shelves would send people into a panic and they'd strip the shelves bare all over town. But we can stock up on non-perishable foods a bit at a time now, while the stores have food available and no one is panicking, and be well prepared should the worst happen.

Worrying does no good but to bring something to your attention and you may then choose to act on it or not.

You might well want to get things in order now. One superpower (Russia) is talking very highly of dissolving the world bank monopoly. If Russia gets enough allies in support of that action, things are going to change VERY quickly.

For Americans intent on buying gold - the law making it illegal to own gold is still on the books - it was suspended not overturned. It can be reactivated without notice and there is no concrete insurance against them taking it away from you at less than market value if the suspension is cancelled. Palladium - Platinum - Silver - Copper.

Indy, mon Ami - I beg to differ with your source on this. Governments can take over food production and distribution. They can take it right off of markets and keep it all growth and trade in their own power and out of private trade systems. Nothing is actually safe if you want to think about government take-over.

There are some superb 'survivalist' stores in the States. I've not been able to find comparable over here, at least that stock large supplies. I have sourced suppliers for smaller amounts which works out much more expensive. Military Rations (MREs) are an option of course, and you can get cans which heat themselves and don't require cooking. I even found an amazing Kelly Kettle which can use anything for fuel including soil and dog shit. No kidding.

Americans (or Canadians) who have some cash spare might want to invest in these type of supplies if they don't currently stockpile food. International shipping costs kill anyone else, and make it a non-starter.

I've learnt so much from these people - I didn't know you could freeze butter, but you can for a few months! We used to get powdered eggs over here during the war and you can still get it. Good for scrambling and adding to recipes. Powdered butter is a bit odd apparently, so it takes some time to get used to it on toast, but it's usuable. Dried milk and potatoes of course are easy to come by. Ditto any dried foods.

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As Shay says, check around survivalist stores - google should throw up plenty; camping, preparedness, bulk supplies of food, extreme sports shops. Google them all. Catering supplies even.

Don't buy candles, think oil lamps - you can use cheap olive oil in them instead of kerosene. Think about getting a generator, LPG can power your whole house (within limits) if the supply dries up (likely if your country purchases it's fuel) and LPG is cheaper than diesel or gas and safer to store. More environment friendly too. Solar is best of course, if you've got enough sun, and you don't have to worry about supplies drying up, though you can get large tanks of LPG for long term storage. Or wind power if they'll let you have it. We require planning permission for that over here.

There is free info - and even a couple of clickbank products - showing how to make your own panels cheaply, you'd just have to hire an electrician to wire it up. If you can afford it get a pro system though.

Even water is covered, you can get atmospheric ones that create purified water from the humidity in the air - but they need electricity to run hence the need for a generator. I've not found a supplier over here but most seem to be manufactured in the US or China/Taiwan so you might find suppliers near you. I've been dropping hints to a supplier of water purifiers over here to stock them. They aren't that expensive considering what they do. I like this one: EcoloBlue? Life & Energy | Home & Office Products - EcoloBlue 28

Get a chest freezer, they are cheaper to run than uprights and can bulk store. If you grow your own stuff a dehydrator might be handy if your freezer is full. You can make jerky and stuff, very nutritious and takes no room. I've never had jerky but the Americans are big on it, and they are really good at this 'pioneer' living.

Buy wheat in bulk and store it in bins with oxygen absorbers. Keeps for years. Get a wheat mill, make your own bread, or get a bread machine (I recommend Panasonic) or check out 'artisan bread in 5 minutes a day'. Easy way to create bread without a machine - though you do need an oven. YouTube has some cool vids on that. I think you can get solar ovens and there are always those little camping stoves. Buy oat groats in bulk and get an oat flaker, make your own porridge, very filling and nutritious. Buy rice in bulk while you can - if you can. Grow wheatgrass and get a wheatgrass juicer - you'll get all the vits and protein you need without meat. Tastes like crap. Hemp Seeds are a complete food and you can live on them alone, with plenty of water, for a good long while.

If you must have meat, keep a pair of breeding rabbits, and when they breed like..er..rabbits ,get someone to do 'em in, (if you can't do it) in exchange for a couple. You keep a couple and barter the others. They usually pop out about 6 or 8 every few months. If you have a yard, keep chickens and you'll have a supply of fresh eggs - unless somebody pinches them (they would round here)

I don't think things will drag on for more than a couple of months at the extreme end, as there'll be hardly anyone left as we'll all have starved. They'll sort things out eventually, probably use it as an excuse to refashion the world and nobody will care if they are starving. But it's making sure you survive long enough when the SHTF. I reckon you need enough basics in stock for a few weeks, and the means to provide products that will be in short supply for a while.

Bread is gonna go through the roof I fear. I was working out with my mate how much she spends on bread a month. She buys one family size loaf a day for 4 of them (about £1.20_ and occasionally a couple of rolls). That's around £40 or more on bread!! That's around $55 amonth on the most basic of staples. That's a huge chunk out of a low income families budget. You can halve that immediately (even less) by making your own, and it's healthier too.

There are loads of vids on YouTube for survivalist stuff, showing how to store food in food barrels and mylar bags. There are even vids to show how to grow citrus fruit indoors. Oh and check out the AeroGarden if you have no space to grow things. It's a readymade aeroponics system and you can grow tomatoes and fruits, lettuce etc. They don't appear to use much electricity. AeroGarden Official Store by AeroGrow Shop, Compare and Save Keep spare pumps and lights around.

You can of course rig your own up and grow anything you want via hydroponics and aeroponics (one uses water, the other air, but they are essentially similar). Most of the vids on YouTube tend to concentrate on growing dope in your closet. LOL.

Yes, I've been busy researching lately and I'm pretty pleased with myself. I'm normally crap in a crisis and finding solutions to this has been such a relief. My only problem now is getting enough money to pay for the bloody stuff (do-able in theory, if I get my finger out and focus) and more importantly having enough time to do it. If things can just hold off for a year...I expect trigger points first like shortages and food prices rocketing. Once I've got that sorted I can relax no matter what happens, get my shit together and prepare to croak in 2012. LOL! Dammit I wanna survive at least till then!!

Then of course you have to make sure that nobody nicks your generator (I live in a rough area) or breaks in to steal your stocks, if law and order break down. And of course what do you do if your friends and loved ones haven't stocked up? My brother and his family (6 there, all adults apart from the 15 year old) and my close friend and neighbour (4 including 2 teenagers) are not taking things seriously and they laugh at me for my urgency.

I look after my Dad (I've even been buying extra incontinence pads off ebay just in case supplies dry up ), and I'm trying to broach the subject to his doctor to give me a few months extra supplies of his medication just in case. I've no chance of that, I suspect. If I manage to get enough supplies to keep us in basics for a few months, it all counts for naught if others haven't taken precautions. I can't possibly watch them go hungry so I'll have to share with an extra 10 people. Those supplies will then provide us all with very meagre rations for a mere couple of weeks, which likely won't be long enough to survive if the system really goes into meltdown and supply routes are disrupted, or crops fail. I've also taken in a stray cat and I've had to start stocking up on her food. I'll be scared to let her out if it's really bad in case someone nicks her for the table. During the blockade in WW2 the Dutch were reduced to eating cats and tulip bulbs. Many deformed babies were born after the war. (That's when the boffins finally acknowledged the link between diet and health, and the mothers diet and the foetus. Duh.)

So I ask myself, why bother? I wouldn't mind but my brother is rich. Stupid fool is busy buying up cheap stocks thinking he's gonna be megarich in a few years.

The solution of course would be to buy those idiots their own generators, and sufficient stocks that they can survive without depleting my stocks. So that's even more money needed. For some crazy reason I have decided that is what I must do, yet I have no spare cash at the moment.

This stuff is gonna drive me insane, and I'll probably drop dead of a heart attack from the stress. :rolleyes:

Did anyone here know honey lasts forever? I just learned that some honey was stored in an ancient Egyptian tomb and was still edible after thousands of years.

I say this because I know that a sandwich made of peanut butter, honey, banana on enriched, whole wheat bread, with a glass of milk, is a complete meal, with everything a person needs to live on.

Shay, given the small size of the average home here, it would be impossible to stock more than a couple of months of food. I am looking into the mortgage at the moment but my rate is only 2.45%. In times of crisis, I would really prefer to have some liquid cash and assets. Anyway, I hope that I am not that paranoid yet.

I know for certain that the mainly Chinese are snapping up gold jewelry and investment graded diamonds in Hong Kong. They stop short at gold bars because it cannot be imported into China.

Survivalists, and their ilk, have been expecting - almost wishing for - something terrible to happen to Western civilisation for decades, perhaps longer.

It used to be stocking-up and arming yourself for when the Reds blow everyone to Kingdom Come. Then, for a while there, "somebody" was smuggling old Soviet 'mini-nukes' to wipe Washington, London, Paris, Berlin, and a dozen other cities off the map. Then the Iraqis "threatened the safety and security of the free World". Then the Chinese were going to invade Taiwan and kick-off WW3. Then the Serbs were going to retaliate aginst NATO somehow. Then the Arabs were going to wipe everyone out. Then the dreaded Iraqis were back to bring about the end-times. And, now, "The Economy" is going to obliterate us all (and do so for at least the 5th or 6th time that I can remember).

When this passes, something else will come along. In fact, it might be those nasty Russians all over again. Although, not one to be left out, you can be sure "The Economy" will be back to make us all quake in fear a decade or two after that again.

Tommy.

P.S. - "I don't know how people who engage in that don't commit suicide..." Bertie Ahern, former Irish Prime Minister, referring to the relentless doomsayers determined to seek out the world-case sceanario at all costs and pound it out again and again and again until everyone is a frightened as them and it all becomes a self-fulfilling phophesy.

Shay, we do have off-site storage but they are very far off and cannot be accessed easily. If something really bad does happen, getting there and getting the provisions would not be easy. I suppose if it comes to that, I could use my 500 sq ft office or my parents' appartments.

I have gone through the SARS period when our whole city was under a cloud of death. I worked in a building that grew the virus and had the largest collection of the virus in the world. During that time, whole buildings were quarantined and the inhabitants were forcedly sent to isolation camps. So I suppose that I am well experienced should a mass outbreak comes.

You know, we have been through a lot in Hong Kong. We have had water rationing, panic hoarding of food, mass rioting, run on banks, panic emigration etc. The worse threat was that communist could have walked in anytime before 1997.

It is not that I want to see these scenes again but at least we have gone through these times.

Derek