How will the Iran card play out? The Think Tank Thread

With Iran's nuclear reactor coming online, Israel sees Iran having crossed the nuclear threshold. Israel has already stated they will not live under a nuclear threat, and has threatened to take out the nuclear sites alone if need be.

If this should occur, in a matter of hours it would go from a regional conflict to a world conflict. Shall we see if we can figure out how the open shots will play out if the unthinkable should become reality?

The window of opportunity is closing to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power. Russia has sold Iran it's advanced S-300 anti-aircraft missile system. Should Iran take delivery of this system, it would make any attack on Iran a costly endeavor.

The only thing keeping Russia from delivering the system is Israel's claim of being able to defeat the anti-aircraft system with a new electronic warfare device that she's created. Now Russia has to determine if Israel's claim is true, or if it's a bluff. If it's true, Russia's own national security is at risk.

If Russia decides it's a bluff and plans to deliver the S-300 system, Israel will have to strike as many of the two dozen sites as she possibly can, and the result would be tens of thousands of civilian casualties.

Iran responds.

Israel too is a nuclear power, and Iran will try to level the playing field by launching it's long range missiles at Israels nuclear facilities.

Iran will also use it's navy and air force to close the straights of hormuz, which 40% of all the worlds oil passes through. With anti-ship missiles and underwater mines, no oil tanker would stand a chance without a naval escort.

It's unlikely the conflict will be solved overnight, and the worlds oil companies are willing to pay top dollar to anyone who can deliver. Iran has delivered a strong economic blow to the entire world.

America is drawn into the conflict.

The water ways must be reopened, and the U.S. sends in three carrier groups to clear the area of all threats and return stability to the region. Sorties are also launched into Iran from Iraq and Afghanistan.

Israel's fight is now a lot closer to home. Iran's allies have joined the conflict, and Syria is advancing on the Golan Heights, while the northern front is being attacked by hezbollah, not to mention hamas has started a new deadly campaign against Israel. Israel's army is spread thin, and all of the reserves are called to duty.

So far, only conventional weapons have been used. The only question is who would be crazy enough to start using nuclear, biological or chemical weapons if they feel their back is against the wall?

Can we know the timing? Greed is predictable, and oil futures contracts that are months away would be accumulated, and those oil futures prices would quickly rise.



Dave