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Stock Market Experiments Using Intuition!

by tagiscom
9 replies
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Ok, l am going to rattle some skeptics skeletons, with this one, but it does show if you look deep enough, great supportive evidence can be found to support paranormal experiences.

Brain regions that activated could immediately be rec-ognized as those involved in ToM thinking (Gallagher and Frith (2003) list the regions). The most important of these is the medial paracingulate cortex, a region in the middle of the forebrain, high above the eyes.

Figure 1 displays a medial cross section of a typical human brain, from front(left-hand side) to back, onto which the significant differential activation in the paracingulate cortex is mapped (small squares; changes from dark to light
correlate with increases in significance level). The localization is based on arandom effects analysis of the 18 subjects' fMRI signals. Details can be found in the Internet Appendix.


Surprisingly (although this finding is corroborated in the behavioral experi-ment below), brain regions known to be involved in formal mathematical and logical thinking were no more activated when insiders were present than when they were not. Thus, thinking about markets when there are insiders appears


to be an unequivocal ToM occupation.
Thesebrainactivationpatternsprompte PAGE 1709

http://www.hss.caltech.edu/~steve/jfinance.pdf


That region is the third eye or the area associated with paranormal experiences, etc.

It is a PDF,and does waffle on a bit, but they also conducted a lot of logical experiments to see if people really can predict outcomes while not using math of their subconscious.

I got half way, but the above statements got my attention.

Definitely leaning towards using intuition alone to predict outcomes! :p


Shane
  • Profile picture of the author Frank Donovan
    Originally Posted by tagiscom View Post

    Ok, l am going to rattle some skeptics skeletons, with this one, but it does show if you look deep enough, great supportive evidence can be found to support paranormal experiences.
    Shane, we covered this in the "Psychics" thread. Intuition isn't paranormal.


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    • Profile picture of the author tagiscom
      Originally Posted by Frank Donovan View Post

      Shane, we covered this in the "Psychics" thread. Intuition isn't paranormal.


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      Well, true they could state intuition differently to separate it from the Subconscious, but whatever they are using here, is outside of the minds supposed ability!


      Maybe sixth sense is a better term?


      Shane
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      • Profile picture of the author Frank Donovan
        Originally Posted by tagiscom View Post

        Well, true they could state intuition differently to separate it from the Subconscious, but whatever they are using here, is outside of the minds supposed ability!
        No, intuition is within the mind's ability.

        Maybe sixth sense is a better term?
        It would be, if we didn't actually have at least 11 senses already.

        http://www.warriorforum.com/off-topi...ml#post4864528

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        • Profile picture of the author thunderbird
          Originally Posted by Frank Donovan View Post

          No, intuition is within the mind's ability.

          It would be, if we didn't actually have at least 11 senses already.

          http://www.warriorforum.com/off-topi...ml#post4864528

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          The brain is much like a computer that picks up waves and records patterns.

          Thoughts are interesting. Somehow a quick thought becomes a string of words or leads someone to use their hands to complete a puzzle. What is the most abstract level of thought? It has been shown that a single photon picked up by a human eye can affect the physical activities of the brain, which suggests some quantum randomness plays a role in thoughts.

          Anyway, in a nutshell, I've added absolutely nothing to this conversation.
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  • Profile picture of the author whateverpedia
    Shane,

    A few years ago they did a test on predicting the future of share prices.

    They lined up all sorts of experts including economists, accountants, stockbrokers, etc., to pick a company that they thought would rise in price.

    Then they added to that a completely random factor. They would have a dart thrown at the listings and compare that with the experts. To make it even more random they had a chimpanzee throw the dart.

    Do I really need to tell you which one was the winner?

    Anyway, back to intuition. Despite being what you describe as a "skeptic", I do agree that intuition does work in predicting "winners" on the stockmarket.

    However that intuition has absolutely nothing to do with any psychic or paranormal ability. The intuition is built up over time by observing how the market reacts to events.

    What moves the market is either greed or fear. That's why psychologists do better at picking "winners" than economists.

    So while I am convinced that intuition works on the stockmarket, there is still no credible evidence that that intuition has anything to do with psychic/paranormal ability. It's just knowledge.

    Nevertheless you can invest your life savings on a psychic prediction, and I'll stick with "value" based analysis. We'll see who does better.
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    • Profile picture of the author tagiscom
      Originally Posted by whateverpedia View Post

      Shane,

      A few years ago they did a test on predicting the future of share prices.

      They lined up all sorts of experts including economists, accountants, stockbrokers, etc., to pick a company that they thought would rise in price.

      Then they added to that a completely random factor. They would have a dart thrown at the listings and compare that with the experts. To make it even more random they had a chimpanzee throw the dart.

      Do I really need to tell you which one was the winner?
      Ok, but octopuses, etc do have an unusually high strike rate in predicting soccer outcomes, so.....:rolleyes:

      Might just be a monkey with a particularizing well developed sixth scene.

      More testing needs to be done, on the monkey? :p

      Although the octopus, did have an impressive strike rate before he died of old age! Sniff!


      Anyway, back to intuition. Despite being what you describe as a "skeptic", I do agree that intuition does work in predicting "winners" on the stockmarket.

      However that intuition has absolutely nothing to do with any psychic or paranormal ability. The intuition is built up over time by observing how the market reacts to events.

      What moves the market is either greed or fear. That's why psychologists do better at picking "winners" than economists.

      So while I am convinced that intuition works on the stockmarket, there is still no credible evidence that that intuition has anything to do with psychic/paranormal ability. It's just knowledge.

      Nevertheless you can invest your life savings on a psychic prediction, and I'll stick with "value" based analysis. We'll see who does better.
      No l agree l do have a super account with a well known investment group in AU, but of course it is only good for retirement or long term dividends.


      No credible evidence! I thought that the article l found was pretty good! :p

      Oh, well, hope that Claude enjoys it! :rolleyes:


      Shane
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      • Profile picture of the author whateverpedia
        Originally Posted by tagiscom View Post

        Ok, but octopuses, etc do have an unusually high strike rate in predicting soccer outcomes, so.....:rolleyes:
        Well, no. One octopus had a good result. No other octopus has shown to be any better than an average mug punter.

        Might just be a monkey with a particularizing well developed sixth scene.
        I see, so it could then direct the dart to pick the right stock could it. BTW, it was a chimp. Not a monkey.

        No credible evidence! I thought that the article l found was pretty good! :p
        My reading of that article says that the "intuition" was gained from experience and psychology (in their words "market mind"). Exactly what I said.

        Oh, and another BTW. Having your super fund with "a well known manager" will guarantee you pretty ordinary returns. Just about all of them do no better than the market as a whole (before they take their fees). I know this because I used to work for the 3rd biggest super fund manager in Australia. That's why I put all of my super in a self-managed fund the first chance I got.

        I've used my "intuition" to avoid the GFC (2008) by having it all in cash, and then putting it back into stocks I selected (using my intuition) in 2009. I've beaten the market, as well as other fund managers, and paid less in fees since then.

        You don't even need that level of involvement to beat the fund managers either.

        I've done extensive research to show that, in any given year, if you put your money into what was last year's worst performing sector, you'll beat most manager's performance.

        EG, If property was last year's worst performer, put all your money in property. Then at the end of the year check which was the worst performing asset class (it might have been the stockmarket for example), then switch out of property into that sector. Rinse, repeat, retire rich.

        If you follow that strategy, you will retire with far more money than you would by letting the "experts" "manage" your money. Fact.
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        • Profile picture of the author tagiscom
          Originally Posted by whateverpedia View Post

          Well, no. One octopus had a good result. No other octopus has shown to be any better than an average mug punter.
          One point for me then! :p

          I see, so it could then direct the dart to pick the right stock could it. BTW, it was a chimp. Not a monkey.
          Well the chimp could have been great at throwing darts, or bananas? And threw it at the right area? :rolleyes:

          My reading of that article says that the "intuition" was gained from experience and psychology (in their words "market mind"). Exactly what I said.
          Well, the expert above, shows that wasn't the case for the experiments done above. :p

          Oh, and another BTW. Having your super fund with "a well known manager" will guarantee you pretty ordinary returns. Just about all of them do no better than the market as a whole (before they take their fees). I know this because I used to work for the 3rd biggest super fund manager in Australia. That's why I put all of my super in a self-managed fund the first chance I got.

          I've used my "intuition" to avoid the GFC (2008) by having it all in cash, and then putting it back into stocks I selected (using my intuition) in 2009. I've beaten the market, as well as other fund managers, and paid less in fees since then.

          You don't even need that level of involvement to beat the fund managers either.

          I've done extensive research to show that, in any given year, if you put your money into what was last year's worst performing sector, you'll beat most manager's performance.

          EG, If property was last year's worst performer, put all your money in property. Then at the end of the year check which was the worst performing asset class (it might have been the stockmarket for example), then switch out of property into that sector. Rinse, repeat, retire rich.

          If you follow that strategy, you will retire with far more money than you would by letting the "experts" "manage" your money. Fact.
          Interesting, thanks for the advise!

          But doesn't someone off the street need a special license, etc, to invest on the stock market online for example?


          Shane
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          • Profile picture of the author whateverpedia
            Originally Posted by tagiscom View Post

            But doesn't someone off the street need a special license, etc, to invest on the stock market online for example? Shane
            Nope. Anyone can open an account. You have to do a 100 point check the same way you do with a bank account, and provide your tax file number of course.

            Then deposit money into the account and away you go.

            I use Commsec myself. It's free to join, $19.95 per trade, and a pretty good research section to help you build a portfolio.

            I'd recommend you read a few books on investing before you risk any money of course.

            You'll also need to work out what sort of investor you are as well. Do you want growth, income or a balance between the two.

            Growth refers to above average increases in the share price(s), and income refers to the dividends that companies pay out to shareholders. For most people, a combination of the two is the best option. Investing for income on the sharemarket is less risky than investing for growth, but it's not risk free.

            Also you'll need to work out how much effort you want to put into it. Do you want to buy shares and then forget about them for a few years, or are you going to actively trade (not recommended even for experienced investors).

            Anyway, if you need any more info there's a ton of it online, or you can PM me your email address and I can help you further.

            Note though, I can only give you general information, but not specific advice. For that you do need a license.
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