Economy in freefall? Revised #'s nearly 3 times lower than original estimates.

10 years ago

The US is about to lose reserve status thanks to the criminals on top. Since we have no hope of getting rid of them because people won't unite and oust them once and for all - we're all going to pay a very hefty price for our complacency. For a lot of people survival will depend on the speed which we can correct the crash by switching everything over to the reserve currency. Until we have free energy in place, we'll be dependent on others for anything we can scrape together after the dollar is dropped as reserve.

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seasoned

10 years ago

Originally Posted by HeySal

The US is about to lose reserve status thanks to the criminals on top. Since we have no hope of getting rid of them because people won't unite and oust them once and for all - we're all going to pay a very hefty price for our complacency. For a lot of people survival will depend on the speed which we can correct the crash by switching everything over to the reserve currency. Until we have free energy in place, we'll be dependent on others for anything we can scrape together after the dollar is dropped as reserve.

You have to switch over to the reserve currency BEFORE the crash. But that would never happen in the US, since the country is SO large and inept. ALSO, those that must do it would have to admit that they caused it.

It IS ironic that one idea of fiat currencies and the G7 was that SUPPOSEDLY all would toe the line, and failure to do so would cause MUTUAL ECONOMIC DESTRUCTION. Yet ANOTHER fallacy on the #$%^&*( agenda.

The US HELD a lot of cards on the table to prevent such a disaster, but has given up a LOT of them. MANY have been given up in the past decade.

Steve

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lanfear63

10 years ago

Originally Posted by Joe Mobley

Economy in freefall? 1Q revision shows shrinkage of 2.9% | Fox News

Joe Mobley

Yes but that was just the first quarter. Chronic weather played a big part too.

"However, the economy is expected to have recorded a sharp recovery during the second quarter of the year."

Source: BBC News - US GDP shrinks 2.9% in first quarter

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Kay King 10 years ago

This is a big deal - when you look at it on a chart looks odd.

United States GDP Growth Rate | Actual Data | Forecasts | Calendar

Second quarter will have to make up 3% before showing any gain. Next month second quarter numbers will be released - then they'll be "revised" a few times and it will be September before we know how second quarter really looked.
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Claude Whitacre

10 years ago

Originally Posted by lanfear63

Yes but that was just the first quarter. Chronic weather played a big part too.

"However, the economy is expected to have recorded a sharp recovery during the second quarter of the year."

Source: BBC News - US GDP shrinks 2.9% in first quarter

Those criminals in the White House...they're the ones who made the bad weather to affect the economy.

I'm glad we can expose them for the Weather manipulators that they are.

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David Maschke

10 years ago

Originally Posted by Claude Whitacre

Those criminals in the White House...they're the ones who made the bad weather to affect the economy.

I'm glad we can expose them for the Weather manipulators that they are.

Extremely low interest rates and high deficit spending are symptoms of a great economy, aren't they?

However, I think we should go with you original assessment. How are YOU to question authority and think for yourself?

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seasoned

10 years ago

Originally Posted by lanfear63

Yes but that was just the first quarter. Chronic weather played a big part too.

"However, the economy is expected to have recorded a sharp recovery during the second quarter of the year."

Source: BBC News - US GDP shrinks 2.9% in first quarter

Yeah, but the second quarter doesn't count! What counts are the REVISED figures for the second quarter. But the 2.9% isn't even MOSTLY due to weather.

They have often done this, and I think it happened every period since 2008, but they always pick a high number and later revise down.

Steve

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seasoned

10 years ago

Claud,

Did you look at the article? It mentions weather and THEN says "However, ", and mentions 4 other things. And WHY such a BIG error?HEC It is a shame that people in the US have so few options here.

HECK! During the 1929 depression SOME managed to invest in some gold to avoid problems. In 1933, the government STOLE IT!

FDR's 1933 Gold Confiscation was a Bailout of the Federal Reserve Bank

Steve

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Kay King 10 years ago

The -2.9% is a serious number and not only related to weather or to any one thing. Just saying - it's not just weather or just policies or just....anything. It never is about one thing.

This morning MSNBC is covering the -2.9% in depth - without posturing. We're talking MSNBC here!!! If that network station is covering bad economic news...the news must be serious.

A former White House economic adviser (Goolsbee) and a former head of the CBO are on MSNBC with insight into what is causing a downturn and what the future might be. Both think this downward trend will be reversed but both also say the "year of recovery" predicted for 2014 is not going to happen.

Both say it's not "just weather" but also lack of growth in small and medium businesses, lack of exports due to downward turn in global markets, and consumers not willing to spend as they have in the past.
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TLTheLiberator

10 years ago

We'll see how long it lasts.

This is important for some people to understand about the U.S. economy...

Consumer spending, accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.

So...

- When you put in place a stupid sequester that enacts across the board indiscriminate cuts to federal spending that the CBO says ...

CBO: Sequester cuts would cost up to 1.6M jobs through 2014 | TheHill -

...because some people refuse to close those loopholes for the wealthy and large corporations in the tax code that won't hurt the general economy in any way, shape or form.

And...

- When you leave almost 3 million long term unemployed Americans including about 300K veterans twisting in the wind...(by cutting off their benefits when you do not re-authorize emergency funding)

The CBO has found that unemployment aid has “the largest effects on output and employment per dollar of budgetary cost.

Not supporting the long term unemployed costs the nation about 200K jobs in addition to the almost 3 million people who would have been spending money every month into the economy.

These Penny wise and pound foolish, asinine, counter-productive economic policies...

...takes money out of and hurts the general economy - that was/is still anemic in the first place and trying to recover from the great recession.

So, I'm not surprised at the bad numbers.

Once again...

This is important for some people to understand about the U.S. economy...

Consumer spending, accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.

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Kay King

10 years ago

And when you argue the same partisan points - what is accomplished?

Even though I agree with some of the points it assumes govt can solve the problems - and after several years I think we are beginning to see the fallacy of that train of thought. It's concerning that the manipulation of the economy in an effort to spur growth - may not be working.

Consumer spending is critical - that's exactly right.

But is it really "consumer spending" when the govt gives more money TO some people for them to spend? I don't disagree about unemployment pmnts, etc but I also think the extension of benefits, the increase in benefits are much the same as the fed pumping millions and millions of dollars into the economy.

The benefits and money printing are useful tools to stabilize the economy - but they are not sustainable methods of "economic growth" - because they aren't growth in the first place.

In the past GDP has been bumped by booming housing markets, expanding businesses and optimistic consumers. We are missing in all three sectors right now.

I don't know what the answer is - but I don't think more govt spending is going to change it.

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Claude Whitacre

10 years ago

I think blaming the government when the economy takes a hit..or praising it when things get better....is usually a partisan position. The President, or any specific set of people in leadership just aren't responsible for most economic changes.

I guess the possible exception would be a massive war.

But if you condemn the Whitehouse when things go bad, isn't it just fair to praise them when things get better? I just don't see that. Either the President is always bad...in every instance...or he's always great, in every instance. That's what I hear when my friends (and people here) talk about it.

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TLTheLiberator

10 years ago

Originally Posted by Claude Whitacre

I think blaming the government when the economy takes a hit..or praising it when things get better....is usually a partisan position. The President, or any specific set of people in leadership just aren't responsible for most economic changes.

I guess the possible exception would be a massive war.

But if you condemn the Whitehouse when things go bad, isn't it just fair to praise them when things get better? I just don't see that. Either the President is always bad...in every instance...or he's always great, in every instance. That's what I hear when my friends (and people here) talk about it.

We are all entitled.

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Kay King

10 years ago

Such a well reasoned, yet rhetorical, response.

Claude - I agree we can't blame "govt". Policies can exacerbate problems but this GDP number is consumer spending, possibly weather related, and may also be related to global downturn affecting our economy. I say "possibly" weather because auto sales were up during the same period and people did spend a lot to heat their homes.

Just as I don't think govt can be blamed - I don't think govt has "the cure" either.

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Claude Whitacre

10 years ago

Originally Posted by Kay King

Such a well reasoned, yet rhetorical, response.

Claude - I agree we can't blame "govt". Policies can exacerbate problems but this GDP number is consumer spending, possibly weather related, and may also be related to global downturn affecting our economy. I say "possibly" weather because auto sales were up during the same period and people did spend a lot to heat their homes.

Just as I don't think govt can be blamed - I don't think govt has "the cure" either.

Do you really think there is a cure?

Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator

We are all entitled.

TL; What do you mean? Do you mean "entitled to an opinion"? Absolutely.

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Kay King

10 years ago

In the past the only cure has been "us".

Not the govt, not the fed, not Wall Street....business people doing what they know best and allowed to grow without being weighed down with more and more taxes and regulations.

Then again - maybe this is the new normal?

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TimPhelan

10 years ago

Originally Posted by Kay King

...business people doing what they know best and allowed to grow without being weighed down with more and more taxes and regulations.

Careful, that sounds a lot like a partisan point.

Originally Posted by Claude Whitacre

... isn't it just fair to praise them when things get better? I just don't see that.

Nope. I don't recall any threads pointing out how the economy took off in the 3rd quarter of last year when it grew by 4.1%. Maybe I just missed that thread.

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TLTheLiberator

10 years ago

Originally Posted by TimPhelan

Careful, that sounds a lot like a partisan point.

Nope. I don't recall any threads pointing out how the economy took off in the 3rd quarter of last year when it grew by 4.1%. Maybe I just missed that thread.

Tim,

Bad news travels a lot faster than good news.

That point regarding regulations holding back small business growth sure is a partisan talking point and also has no basis in reality.

According to the BLS regulations are not the reason businesses have not been growing.

Anyone who know anything about the American economy knows that lack of consumer spending is the number 1 reason for our lackluster economy - not gov regulations.

Kay has made another unsubstantiated statement in this thread.

She also said...

"but I also think the extension of benefits, the increase in benefits (unemployment) are much the same as the fed pumping millions and millions of dollars into the economy."

She seems to believe that the federal reserve's Q-Easing program is money going into the general economy...

...when in fact it is money going into the markets which these days is almost completely divorced from the general economy.

Quantitative Easing Definition | Investopedia

They do not have the same effect on the economy. One helps the general economy and one helps the stock market.

It's a big, big misunderstanding.

- She seems to also believe that the federal gov has been spending money left and right but it has not helped the economy...

Who Is The Smallest Government Spender Since Eisenhower? Would You Believe It's Barack Obama? - Forbes

The reality is since 2010 and the changeover in the House Of Reps, we have gone to an "counter-productive, cut and grow??, austerity type of budget" - at exactly the wrong time in the nation's history.

It's like our own planes have turned on our own ships with kamikaze attacks.

I do not doubt that the motive for the wacky economic policies is to win the WH. It didn't work in 2012 and I have a feeling they're hoping it will work in 2016.

IMHO, the nation will never get out of this rut we're in if we don't...

- Get rid of that stupid, job killing sequester and austerity economics in general.

- Go green. (clean energy etc.)

- Upgrade our infrastructure.

- Get the 10-15 million illegals on line and into our system which according to the CBO will produce a bunch of economic benefits.

- Find ways to bring back more decent paying manufacturing jobs.

- Rescind that 200-400 billion yearly (and some folks say a lot more), in extra gravy giveaways in the tax code for the wealthy and large corporations and put it to good use for the nation.

IMHO, we are cutting our own financial throats and our enemies love it.

Doing nothing and waiting for ONLY the free market to come to the rescue without smart Gov intervention will only allow the American economy to settle into a new norm in which...

- We'll never get anywhere near close to "full employment", which is a big key to a healthy middle class based economy.

- Financial life for the average American will become even more precarious than it is now.

- The vast majority of the population will be seriously struggling just to get by.

- More Americans will be old and poor.

- Upward mobility which used to be a large part of the American experience will be cut off at the knees even more than it is now.

- Have a old decrepit, problematic 20th century infrastructure that will only cost us more and more money as time. goes on.

- We'll probably get into a war or maybe two over energy resources - that we could have avoided if we had gone green.

We are cutting our own financial throats with self-inflicted kamikaze economic policies and our enemies love it.

But you folks (and you know who you are)...

...can continue to believe in the economic philosophy of the very same people who are also denying man-made climate change.

What a country.

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seasoned

10 years ago

Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator

IMHO, the nation will never get out of this rut we're in if we don't...

HOW can you POSSIBLY claim that to get back to where we were, we have to do more of what got us where we are and the opposite of what got us where we were?

- Get rid of that stupid, job killing sequester.

You want to get rid of what OBAMA created for the sequestor!

- Go green.

GO GREEN? What the heck does that even mean? I mean by the NEW definition, we must first seal and kill all COWs, for starters!

- Upgrade our infrastructure.

Upgrade infrastructure? You just said GO GREEN! We CAN'T upgrade infrastructure!

- Get the 10-15 million illegals on line and into our system which according to the CBO will produce a bunch of economic benefits.

You earlier claimed that RYAN was LYING when he said OBAMA was, and NOW say we must make OBAMAs statement a VERY CLEAR LIE! Right now, it is simply a lie. I wish I could remember the term, but OC has a special class for illegals, so they QUALIFY!

- Find ways to bring back more decent paying manufacturing jobs.

IMPOSSIBLE! You just made it impossible to do what must be done!

- Rescind that 200-400 billion yearly (and some folks say a lot more), in extra gravy giveaways in the tax code for the wealthy and large corporations and put it to good use for the nation.

You just said you wanted to do the OPPOSITE!

IMHO, we are cutting our own financial throats and our enemies love it.

You ADMIT IT!?!?!?!?

Doing nothing and waiting for ONLY the free market to come to the rescue without SMART Gov ACTION OR LACK OF will only allow the American economy to settle into THE new norm in which...

- We'll never get anywhere near close to "full employment", which is a big key to a healthy middle class based economy.

- Financial life for the average American will become EVEN more precarious than it is now.

- The vast majority of the population will be seriously struggling just to get by.

- More Americans will be old and poor.

- Upward mobility which used to be a large part of the American experience will be cut off at the knees EVEN more than it is now.

We are cutting our own financial throats with self-inflicted kamikaze economic policies and our enemies love it.

But you folks (and you know who you are)....

Well, I corrected a few things, and made it more truthful. And I guess some DON'T know who they are!

For the record, I once almost wrote a letter to President CARTER! I was going to tell him about how some of what he said was just WRONG, and about how it would be EASIER to go solar. Not that I could take credit, but all these decades, and people are FINALLY doing what I was going to tell carter he could. EVEN THE US PENTAGON HAS!!!!!!!!!! Aurora Energy - Government Solar Projects Experience I decided that he wouldn't listen to a little kid, assuming he would even see the letter.

And I HATE the way people work with asphalt. As I revealed here, I am a treehugger at heart. I am ALSO not crazy about how some get a bit of luck and become filthy rich.

But I DO look at the whole picture. Asphalt has its uses. If nobody were rich, all would have to have little local businesses, etc... And if there were no CO2, everything would suffocate. I have always advocated planting more. And planting 7 young seedlings doesn't make up for cutting an old tree.

And HEY! When I picked my party for the first time, I looked at carter and reagan.

Steve

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TLTheLiberator

10 years ago

Originally Posted by seasoned

HOW can you POSSIBLY claim that to get back to where we were, we have to do more of what got us where we are and the opposite of what got us where we were?

You want to get rid of what OBAMA created for the sequestor!

GO GREEN? What the heck does that even mean? I mean by the NEW definition, we must first seal and kill all COWs, for starters!

Upgrade infrastructure? You just said GO GREEN! We CAN'T upgrade infrastructure!

You earlier claimed that RYAN was LYING when he said OBAMA was, and NOW say we must make OBAMAs statement a VERY CLEAR LIE! Right now, it is simply a lie. I wish I could remember the term, but OC has a special class for illegals, so they QUALIFY!

IMPOSSIBLE! You just made it impossible to do what must be done!

You just said you wanted to do the OPPOSITE!

You ADMIT IT!?!?!?!?

Well, I corrected a few things, and made it more truthful. And I guess some DON'T know who they are!

For the record, I once almost wrote a letter to President CARTER! I was going to tell him about how some of what he said was just WRONG, and about how it would be EASIER to go solar. Not that I could take credit, but all these decades, and people are FINALLY doing what I was going to tell carter he could. EVEN THE US PENTAGON HAS!!!!!!!!!! Aurora Energy - Government Solar Projects Experience I decided that he wouldn't listen to a little kid, assuming he would even see the letter.

And I HATE the way people work with asphalt. As I revealed here, I am a treehugger at heart. I am ALSO not crazy about how some get a bit of luck and become filthy rich.

But I DO look at the whole picture. Asphalt has its uses. If nobody were rich, all would have to have little local businesses, etc... And if there were no CO2, everything would suffocate. I have always advocated planting more. And planting 7 young seedlings doesn't make up for cutting an old tree.

And HEY! When I picked my party for the first time, I looked at carter and reagan.

Steve

More than anyone in here - you are entitled.

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SteveJohnson 10 years ago

Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator

More than anyone in here - you are entitled.

I think you have an entitlement mentality.
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- TLTheLiberator 10 years ago
  
  Originally Posted by SteveJohnson
  
  I think you have an entitlement mentality.
  
  I'm not sure what you mean, care to explain?
  
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  SteveJohnson 10 years ago
  
  Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator
  
  I'm not sure what you mean, care to explain?
  
  I could. But after reading it, you'd just reply with, "You're entitled."
  
  So, no.
  
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Joe Mobley 10 years ago

Originally Posted by Claude Whitacre

Do you really think there is a cure?

No, there is not.

The disease has metastasized into other parts of the "body". The republic will not survive.

Joe Mobley
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- TLTheLiberator 10 years ago
  
  Originally Posted by Joe Mobley
  
  No, there is not.
  
  The disease has metastasized into other parts of the "body". The republic will not survive.
  
  Joe Mobley
  
  Especially if we don't stop the self-inflicted kamikaze attacks on our economy.
  
  The republic will survive, the middle class will be seriously shrunk and it just won't be the greatest place on Earth to live anymore.
  
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  Joe Mobley 10 years ago
  
  Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator
  
  Especially if we don't stop the self-inflicted kamikaze attacks on our economy.
  
  Perhaps you could refresh my memory?
  
  Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator
  
  The republic will survive
  
  In name only... and possibly not even that.
  
  Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator
  
  just won't be the greatest place on Earth to live anymore.
  
  Perhaps considering greater places is in order.
  
  Joe Mobley
  
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  TLTheLiberator 10 years ago
  
  Originally Posted by Joe Mobley
  
  Perhaps you could refresh my memory?
  
  In name only... and possibly not even that.
  
  Perhaps considering greater places is in order.
  
  Joe Mobley
  
  You are entitled.
  
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Hopeless Bromantic 10 years ago

Originally Posted by Claude Whitacre

Do you really think there is a cure?

How about a fair market as well as a 'free' one? Giving U.S. jobs to third world labor will eventually come back to bite the economy, if it's not doing so already.
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TLTheLiberator

10 years ago

Originally Posted by Kay King

And when you argue the same partisan points - what is accomplished?

Even though I agree with some of the points it assumes govt can solve the problems - and after several years I think we are beginning to see the fallacy of that train of thought. It's concerning that the manipulation of the economy in an effort to spur growth - may not be working.

Consumer spending is critical - that's exactly right.

But is it really "consumer spending" when the govt gives more money TO some people for them to spend? I don't disagree about unemployment pmnts, etc but I also think the extension of benefits, the increase in benefits are much the same as the fed pumping millions and millions of dollars into the economy.

The benefits and money printing are useful tools to stabilize the economy - but they are not sustainable methods of "economic growth" - because they aren't growth in the first place.

In the past GDP has been bumped by booming housing markets, expanding businesses and optimistic consumers. We are missing in all three sectors right now.

I don't know what the answer is - but I don't think more govt spending is going to change it.

We are all entitled.

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travlinguy

10 years ago

People aren't spending because they don't have it to spend. The cost of basic stuff, milk, bread, peanut butter, gasoline has nearly doubled in the last six years. Inflation. Inflation comes when there's an increase in the money supply without a comparable increase of goods and services. That's the trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars the fed/treasury has pumped into the economy over the last 10 years.

Johnson did it to fund the war in Viet Nam. Bush did it to fund the BS war in the middle east. Obama is doing it to fund entitlements and keep the stock market propped up. Inflation, the invisible tax.

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Joe Mobley

10 years ago

Once again, overcome by the merely obvious.

Originally Posted by travlinguy

People aren't spending because they don't have it to spend.

Joe Mobley

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Kay King

10 years ago

Sequestration's toll: One bureaucrat loses job - Washington Times

There were massive warnings before sequester - but little comment when the predictions of catastrophe didn't come true.

I think it's the same with the ups and downs of the GDP. Good news can be ho-hum while fear motivates. Fear of what "will happen", fear of "what might be happening" - because it's an unknown.

Good news - higher numbers, jobs not lost, etc....doesn't carry the same level of excitement.

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TLTheLiberator

10 years ago

Originally Posted by Kay King

Sequestration's toll: One bureaucrat loses job - Washington Times

There were massive warnings before sequester - but little comment when the predictions of catastrophe didn't come true.

I think it's the same with the ups and downs of the GDP. Good news can be ho-hum while fear motivates. Fear of what "will happen", fear of "what might be happening" - because it's an unknown.

Good news - higher numbers, jobs not lost, etc....doesn't carry the same level of excitement.

I'll take the CBO over the WT anytime.

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/31...s-through-2014

But you stick with the WT.

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"It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled. -- Mark Twain

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TimPhelan 10 years ago

Originally Posted by travlinguy

The cost of basic stuff, milk, bread, peanut butter, gasoline has nearly doubled in the last six years. Inflation...

Statistics just don't show this to be true.

The price of a gallon of milk in May of 2008 was $3.76. Last month it was $3.74. The price of a gallon of gas in May of 2008 was $3.76 and $3.69 last month. The price of a pound of bread in May of 2008 was $1.37 and $1.40 last month. Etc....

http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ap

Overall, inflation in the last 6 years has been at the lower levels of what it has been in the past 100 years. Two years it was above 3% and three years below 2% with one of those being below 0%.

Historical Inflation Rates: 1914-2014 | US Inflation Calculator
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seasoned

10 years ago

Well, a government runs in trouble, lowers rates FAR too low, and home sales go up. Should they get praise? NOPE! They set into place what could end up in 2008!
They mandate laxed rules, and home sales go up. Should they get praise? NOPE! They set into place what could end up in 2008!

One person that is pro gun control got credit for being the sales person of the year for several years running! Should they get praise? NOPE! They set into place what could end up in reduced sales, etc....

Government RARELY does anything good for long. The BAD tends to LAST!

Steve

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seasoned

10 years ago

Let's not forget:

Bob Woodward: Obama owns sequestration - Kevin Cirilli - POLITICO.com

Steve

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TLTheLiberator 10 years ago

Originally Posted by seasoned

Let's not forget:

Bob Woodward: Obama owns sequestration - Kevin Cirilli - POLITICO.com

Steve

Is this the same dude who said he felt threatened by the admin and the guy who can figure out what was said when there are only two people in a room and no one talks to him or anyone else about what was said?

He's not exactly on the left - if that was your point, and he'll say almost anything to try to keep himself relevant - and he's also entitled.

He's just like Politico.
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"It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled. -- Mark Twain
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10 years ago

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  Kay King 10 years ago
  
  I was watching the CNN series "The Sixties" and was reminded that when it came to Vietnam, segregation and other issues of that very active decade...people gave a damn.
  
  The film footage used in those shows is amazing for anyone who lived through those times or who heard about them in history class. The people stood for the people - not for a party line. It's the reason so many things changed in that decade.
  
  You see MLK set aside his planned speech when a woman shouts "tell them about the dream, Martin"....it was about equality and opportunity and character...not about entitlements.
  
  You see people risking their life, jobs and family to stand up for a cause - instead of arguing political talking points or tweeting about petitions.
  
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  Today is the first blank page of a 365 day book.
  Write a Good Story.
  
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Economy in freefall? Revised #'s nearly 3 times lower than original estimates.

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