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Predicting the conversion rate of a PPC ad campaign...

by Jordan Stark
5 replies
  • PPC/SEM
    • |
....is impossible. There is no possible way to predetermine the success of a ppc marketing campaign. Why? Because to do so would mean predicting the future and controlling what people do against or with their will. A lot of people ask questions like, "Can you tell me how this will convert?", "how will this offer/promotion/product perform?" or "Can you tell me the conversion rate for a particular niche?"....these are all impossible to answer questions. Why? Because you cannot predict the future of people spending money on what you choose promote. Asking questions like that is the same as asking who are the people that will buy my product/service/promotion in the future. We all know that such a question can never be accurately answered.

With ppc marketing you have to test campaigns and that requires budget for testing. If you have not budget for testing then ppc marketing may not be for you. With all of the variables involved, it is impossible to predetermine the performance of a ppc marketing campaign. Some things just simply do not convert well while others can convert really well. It's really unreasonable and ignorant to ask somebody or a company to predict your success.

PPC marketing is not for everybody, especially if you are broke. Many people look for really cheap clicks so, I'll let the cat of the bag on cheap traffic...cheap traffic does not perform well at all. If you expect to pay less than a penny per click or anything close, expect to drop dollars without the remote possibility of seeing desired results or even a 1% ROI.

I think it is time for people to look at things realistically instead of optimistically. Reality trumps optimism on any given day for anything.

I challenge ANYONE to attempt to predict a ppc ad campaign conversion rate and then post the results. My money is riding on it never happening.
#campaign #conversion #ppc #predicting #rate
  • Profile picture of the author solarwarrior
    Originally Posted by Jordan Stark View Post

    ....is impossible. There is no possible way to predetermine the success of a ppc marketing campaign. Why? Because to do so would mean predicting the future and controlling what people do against or with their will. A lot of people ask questions like, "Can you tell me how this will convert?", "how will this offer/promotion/product perform?" or "Can you tell me the conversion rate for a particular niche?"....these are all impossible to answer questions. Why? Because you cannot predict the future of people spending money on what you choose promote. Asking questions like that is the same as asking who are the people that will buy my product/service/promotion in the future. We all know that such a question can never be accurately answered.

    With ppc marketing you have to test campaigns and that requires budget for testing. If you have not budget for testing then ppc marketing may not be for you. With all of the variables involved, it is impossible to predetermine the performance of a ppc marketing campaign. Some things just simply do not convert well while others can convert really well. It's really unreasonable and ignorant to ask somebody or a company to predict your success.

    PPC marketing is not for everybody, especially if you are broke. Many people look for really cheap clicks so, I'll let the cat of the bag on cheap traffic...cheap traffic does not perform well at all. If you expect to pay less than a penny per click or anything close, expect to drop dollars without the remote possibility of seeing desired results or even a 1% ROI.

    I think it is time for people to look at things realistically instead of optimistically. Reality trumps optimism on any given day for anything.

    I challenge ANYONE to attempt to predict a ppc ad campaign conversion rate and then post the results. My money is riding on it never happening.
    Yes, you can't.

    That's why we rely on a number of factors and software to determine whether it is worth paying attention to.

    Example, in cpa network, there are statistic like EPC to determine whether the offer converts.

    Affiliate managers typically has "God's View" on overall conversion from their army of affiliates and a small contingency of elite super affiliates that run conversion numbered up to 5-6 digits daily.

    Then, you have spying tools like whatrunswhere to find converting campaigns and its statistics to determine if that campaign is profitable.

    On top of that, cheap traffic is possible even in 1st tier network.
    Here is a screenshoot where I got 0.07 per click in Bing.


    True, PPC is not for someone who are digging into credit debt to pay for basic necessities.

    But, many guys I knew who succeeded, are those who makes it happen despite obstacles standing in front of them.
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  • Profile picture of the author Jordan Stark
    Yes, a network EPC is a good gauge but it does not mean that is what your particular EPC will be. Plus, you never know how many people are promoting an offer which is a major factor in determining a network EPC. It is impossible to predict the performance of anything with PPC which is why you have to test and split-test to get the best results and then scale.
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  • Profile picture of the author martworld
    There is no prediction in PPC. You need lots of testing and tweaking with your campaigns. Once you find a winning campaign, you can then scale it up.
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  • Profile picture of the author Jarvis Edwards
    In my experience, EPC is an unreliable variable because you never really know which traffic sources are bringing in more conversions than others.

    For instance, let's say cold PPC traffic to an offer has an average EPC of $.10, converting at 2%. $20 is made every 100 clicks.

    Now let's say that same offer is converting at 20%, on average, for email traffic. The traffic is from a list of trusting subscribers who'll pull out their credit cards quickly for that offer.

    The EPC = $10!

    $200 made for each 100 clicks.

    So it's hard to gauge the EPC of any offer until you test it, because you never know what traffic source is "skewing" the numbers.
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    Jarvis Edwards - Copywriter & Marketer
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  • Profile picture of the author iwankurniawan
    like this .. we never know what convert well for us until we test it. so many people said that 7search it's bad ts..but for me that's (7search) convert well when i promote home improv.. , for bings .. i've good convert when i promote work from home... aagh... i agreed with the others that's .. we never know what good for us ...until we test it.
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