Google's grossly over-inflated results...just me?

Steven Carl Kelly

15 years ago

I'm not certain why this is even an issue for you. Can you explain why this is significant?

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Lisa Gergets

15 years ago

Originally Posted by Steven Carl Kelly

I'm not certain why this is even an issue for you. Can you explain why this is significant?

It's significant to me because I use Google's results as one of my comparisions for gauging a niche phrases competition.

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LookItsMeTerryG

15 years ago

Originally Posted by TinkerAndPo

It's significant to me because I use Google's results as one of my comparisions for gauging a niche phrases competition.

This REALLY isn't a reliable metric for gauging competition.. But to answer your question, he is seeing different total results because Google geotargets their results pages.

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Lisa Gergets

15 years ago

This REALLY isn't a reliable metric for gauging competition.

I realize they geotarget their results, but the inconsistencies I'm experiencing lately are just CRAZY.

It's simply one of the tools I use to gauge competition and that tool is no longer reliable.

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LookItsMeTerryG

15 years ago

Originally Posted by TinkerAndPo

I realize they geotarget their results, but the inconsistencies I'm experiencing lately are just CRAZY.

It's simply one of the tools I use to gauge competition and that tool is no longer reliable.

I don't understand why it's crazy given that you accept they geotarget... Simply put, there are less people in Africa targeting US terms than there are in the US.. right? Likewise, there are probably less people in Africa targeting African terms than there are people in the US targeting US terms for the same niche.

All of that being said... Google is a strange beast.

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Steven Carl Kelly 15 years ago

Originally Posted by TinkerAndPo

It's simply one of the tools I use to gauge competition and that tool is no longer reliable.

That's just it, it NEVER was reliable to judge "competition".
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- Lisa Gergets 15 years ago
  
  Originally Posted by Steven Carl Kelly
  
  That's just it, it NEVER was reliable to judge "competition".
  
  Okay, how 'bout you back right off my ass for just a second...how does that sound to you? Good? Good.
  
  I came on here for an answer to a question, not to have my techniques questioned. I get results for my clients and it does not matter one iota what you think of the techniques that I use to do it. I'm obviously doing something right, as the position of these various client sites on page one of Google for their designated niche phrases display.
  
  This thread was asking "has anyone experienced this"...not "am I doing this correctly."
  
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  Steven Carl Kelly 15 years ago
  
  Originally Posted by TinkerAndPo
  
  Okay, how 'bout you back right off my ass for just a second...how does that sound to you? Good? Good.
  
  WHOA! Sorry for trying to help. Not sure why you're taking it so personally that Google's search counts have never been reliable for judging competition, but apparently I've touched a sore nerve.
  
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Steven Carl Kelly 15 years ago

Originally Posted by TinkerAndPo

It's significant to me because I use Google's results as one of my comparisions for gauging a niche phrases competition.

But those numbers really have no actual bearing on competition. That's why I really can't understand the reliance on such useless information as a significant component of a business.
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Chris Thompson

15 years ago

One thing to try:

Take a phrase that you know will have very few results. Type it in with quotes. In fact let's just do a test right now so everyone can report on results. I live in Toronto Canada, so these are my local results using Google.

Phrase "burned mattress" (that's gotta be uncommon!)

Results shown: 2320

Now the real test:
Go to the very last page of the search results (and keep going to the last available page until the REAL number is revealed).

I get to 192 real results. That's it. 192.
This is because Google omits repeat results. If I click the button at the bottom of the links to show omitted resutls, and do the same thing, I get an actual of 709 real results.

But I think you are competing with only the results that are shown in the first situation, ie, 192.

Can others do this same test:
Report in this format.

1) Results that google SAYS exist (make sure to use quotes)
2) Results actually shown when you go to the last page of results.

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Lisa Gergets 15 years ago

1) Results that google SAYS exist (make sure to use quotes) - 3220
2) Results actually shown when you go to the last page of results. - 328
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Steven Carl Kelly

15 years ago

Google returns a maximum of 1,000 results. Period.

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Chris Thompson

15 years ago

I didn't know this. Seems to be true. BUT - if Google shows 1000 results (must ask it to show you omitted results) then I think we can assume there are more than 1000. IF it returns 700 there are probably not 1000 results.

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Steven Carl Kelly

15 years ago

Originally Posted by Chris Thompson

I didn't know this. Seems to be true. BUT - if Google shows 1000 results (must ask it to show you omitted results) then I think we can assume there are more than 1000. IF it returns 700 there are probably not 1000 results.

Believe me, there are plenty of searches in which you don't have to ask for omitted items to get those 1,000 results.

I'm still wondering why this issue is a problem for the OP, though.

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AlexTampa

15 years ago

the amount if results means nothing, not even 5% of the results are wanting to be there

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Joe118

15 years ago

This is one of those hypnotic urban folklore fallacies that's nearly impossible to root out, because its been hammered into everyones brain by the goo roos for so long...

The only competition you care about is what's on page 1. THAT'S IT! Here's the reason:

* In order to be seen by a surfer you have to rank on page 1 for the phrase you care about. I don't think there's any argument about this part, hopefully...
* If a site is not on page 1, it means that it's a weaker competitor for that phrase than sites that are on page 1. This is logical, since Google selects the most relevant -- by whatever algorithm theyre using at the time -- sites to show on page 1.
* If your site ranks on page 1 and displaces someone else, it means you created a competitor for that phrase that is stronger than that displaced site and anyone below you.

So the end result of this logic is that you only need to worry about sites that show on page 1, PERIOD.

I'll be writing a WSO soon on how to gauge the real competition for ANY phrase, and it will be simple and sweet, believe me.

Last bit -- it's very true that some sites are not intending to show for the phrase you care about. This does not matter at all. Intent is not a factor. What matters is that they *are* on page one, and you have to displace them.

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Kurt

15 years ago

Originally Posted by Joe118

This is one of those hypnotic urban folklore fallacies that's nearly impossible to root out, because its been hammered into everyones brain by the goo roos for so long...

The only competition you care about is what's on page 1. THAT'S IT! Here's the reason:

* In order to be seen by a surfer you have to rank on page 1 for the phrase you care about. I don't think there's any argument about this part, hopefully...
* If a site is not on page 1, it means that it's a weaker competitor for that phrase than sites that are on page 1. This is logical, since Google selects the most relevant -- by whatever algorithm theyre using at the time -- sites to show on page 1.
* If your site ranks on page 1 and displaces someone else, it means you created a competitor for that phrase that is stronger than that displaced site and anyone below you.

I'll argue this point...

Years ago I ranked #3-4 for the term "las vegas". I abondonded the site due to serveral reasons, mostly due to a server crash and needed to refocus on other things.

I watched my rankings slip to the 60-70 range.

At the same time, I had a page rank #1 for "las vegas dining".

I still got MORE TRAFFIC ranking #60 (or so) for "las vegas" than I did being #1 for "las vegas dining", simply because "las vegas" was/is such a popular search term.

You don't have to rank in the top 10 to get traffic for extremely popular keywords. In these niches, limiting competition research to only the top 10 sites would be a big mistake. In this case, "niche wide" research is a better indicator.

Plus, as I've posted elsewhere, there isn't "one" top ten SERPs. With customized results based on your personal search history, geographic location, etc, there's likely "many" top 10 results.

Maybe something like the following would be best:
1000 or fewer searches per day, check top 10
1000-5000 searches per day top 10 + #30
5000+ check top 10 + #30 + #50

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Joe118

15 years ago

Kurt thanks. I'm pretty sure that whatever term you want to rank for, you want to be in the top ten for that term. That's what I was trying to say. Getting some traffic even if you're #63 is just gravy

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Kurt

15 years ago

Originally Posted by Joe118

Kurt thanks. I'm pretty sure that whatever term you want to rank for, you want to be in the top ten for that term. That's what I was trying to say. Getting some traffic even if you're #63 is just gravy

Hi Joe,

Sure you do.

However, I'd rather be #63 for "las vegas" than #1 for "las vegas dining", which is my point. To give up on a very popular keyword because the top 10 is very tough could cost you a lot of traffic.

Again, this has to be a very popular keyword.

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Joe118

15 years ago

I see where you're coming from. The problem with your argument is that there's no way to know what the benefit is going to be ranking #63, whereas the benefit of #3 is easier to predict. That's why I evaluate each key phrase individually; for me its not a matter of "oh I'd rather rank #63 for 'las vegas' rather than #3 for 'las vegas dining'. "

Originally Posted by Kurt

Hi Joe,

Sure you do.

However, I'd rather be #63 for "las vegas" than #1 for "las vegas dining", which is my point. To give up on a very popular keyword because the top 10 is very tough could cost you a lot of traffic.

Again, this has to be a very popular keyword.

Thanks
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dburk

15 years ago

Hi TinkerAndPo,

I'm pretty sure that Google uses a formula based on Probability Theory to estimate the number of results, hence the use of the term "about". In other words it's just a guess based on a relatively small sample set. It would be impractical to calculate the actual number for every possible query, that would be a colossal waste of expensive processing power.

Your true competition is the 1000 or fewer results that are actually returned from a search query. It's quite a stretch to imply that you are competing with pages that aren't even included in Google's search results.

Rather than supplying your clients with data that isn't all that meaningful, why not use operators like allintitle, inanchor and intext or other more useful metrics? It seems to me like this could be an opportunity to differentiate your service from other less useful services.

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Lisa Gergets

15 years ago

Originally Posted by dburk

Hi TinkerAndPo,

I'm pretty sure that Google uses a formula based on Probability Theory to estimate the number of results, hence the use of the term "about". In other words it's just a guess based on a relatively small sample set. It would be impractical to calculate the actual number for every possible query, that would be a colossal waste of expensive processing power.

Your true competition is the 1000 or fewer results that are actually returned from a search query. It's quite a stretch to imply that you are competing with pages that aren't even included in Google's search results.

Rather than supplying your clients with data that isn't all that meaningful, why not use operators like allintitle, inanchor and intext or other more useful metrics? It seems to me like this could be an opportunity to differentiate your service from other less useful services.

Thank you for this. I do use intitle and intext...didn't know about inanchor. I will definitely research this and continue to hone my services! Again, thank you!

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Kurt

15 years ago

Originally Posted by TinkerAndPo

Thank you for this. I do use intitle and intext...didn't know about inanchor. I will definitely research this and continue to hone my services! Again, thank you!

I use the three together. I believe it gives the best over-all measure of the strength of a niche.

intitle:"las vegas" inanchor:"las vegas" intext:"las vegas"

intitle:"las vegas" inanchor:"las vegas" intext:"las vegas" - Google Search=

This search returns 8.1 million results. Even though Google will only display 1000 pages, there's still 8.1 million pages that have done this basic SEO. And I'll assume that you still have to "beat" these 8.1 million pages to reach Google's "final 1000".

On the other hand, intitle:"las vegas dining" inanchor:"las vegas dining" intext:"las vegas dining" only returns 63 results.

intitle:"las vegas dining" inanchor:"las vegas dining" intext:"las vegas dining" - Google Search=

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Kurt

15 years ago

Originally Posted by Joe118

I see where you're coming from. The problem with your argument is that there's no way to know what the benefit is going to be ranking #63, whereas the benefit of #3 is easier to predict. That's why I evaluate each key phrase individually; for me its not a matter of "oh I'd rather rank #63 for 'las vegas' rather than #3 for 'las vegas dining'. "

And there's a number of problems with your argument.

First, most research shows that ranks #11 and #12 will get more clicks that #10.

Also, I have my preferences set to return 100 results per page.What percentage of users do the same? In this case, there's really little difference between ranking #10 or #16 and a good title/description is likely more important than a #10 ranking.

As I've now mentioned many times, there isn't a "universal" top 10. It differs from person to person and from location to location. There's also between 50 and 100 data centers, and each can vary the top 10 serps.

Every research system has its weakness. To me, simply researching the top 10 isn't enough. I prefer to include a "niche wide" method in my research to gauge more than the top ten. And in my case, I prefer the 3 "inz" to do so.

I don't consider the number of "inz" to be exact. Rather it is an "index" that can be used to compare other results.

intitle:"search phrase" inanchor:"search phrase" intext:"search phrase"

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Steven Carl Kelly 15 years ago

Originally Posted by Joe118

I'm pretty sure that whatever term you want to rank for, you want to be in the top ten for that term.

The clear bottom line is that you should always be shooting to land on the first page of Google results. If you aren't, then you're likely not aiming your efforts appropriately. If you should fall short of page one and still rank well enough on a very popular keyword phrase and still end up getting good traffic anyhow, then that's great.
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EMGhb

15 years ago

Originally Posted by Joe118

This is one of those hypnotic urban folklore fallacies that's nearly impossible to root out, because its been hammered into everyones brain by the goo roos for so long...

The only competition you care about is what's on page 1. THAT'S IT! Here's the reason:

* In order to be seen by a surfer you have to rank on page 1 for the phrase you care about. I don't think there's any argument about this part, hopefully...
* If a site is not on page 1, it means that it's a weaker competitor for that phrase than sites that are on page 1. This is logical, since Google selects the most relevant -- by whatever algorithm theyre using at the time -- sites to show on page 1.
* If your site ranks on page 1 and displaces someone else, it means you created a competitor for that phrase that is stronger than that displaced site and anyone below you.

So the end result of this logic is that you only need to worry about sites that show on page 1, PERIOD.

I'll be writing a WSO soon on how to gauge the real competition for ANY phrase, and it will be simple and sweet, believe me.

Last bit -- it's very true that some sites are not intending to show for the phrase you care about. This does not matter at all. Intent is not a factor. What matters is that they *are* on page one, and you have to displace them.

I'm going to have to respectfully disagree. The fact that the sites show up in the SERPS indicates that Google thinks they're relevant. Strong or weak competition, these pages are still competition, and they must be beaten in order to reach page 1. I don't think it's appropriate to write off sites ranking 11+. If you did, any niche or market you looked at would be equally competitive, and that's not true.

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Steven Carl Kelly 15 years ago

Originally Posted by EMGhb

I don't think it's appropriate to write off sites ranking 11+. If you did, any niche or market you looked at would be equally competitive, and that's not true.

Respectfully, your statement is wildly inaccurate. Page one results for differing keyword phrases have very different levels of difficulty to rank for them. Just because page one = 10 results doesn't mean that every single niche or market is equally competitive.

VOLUME of search results has little bearing on your ability to rank for a keyword phrase. STRENGTH of competition is the key, and since your aim SHOULD be to land on the front page of Google, hopefully at #1, then the competition you should analyze most carefully are the first page worth of results.

If you can out-rank the first 10, you can out-rank the other 990 that Google will display behind them.

For years, and through even this day, people trying to identify their competition are fixated on this false "search volume" number (quotes, no quotes, blah, blah, blah) as a way to determine whether they should or should not enter a niche... and that's just plain wrong.
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InternetMarketingIQ

15 years ago

I am at a total loss why people think occurances of a keyword phrase = competition. It doesn't.

Competition is determined by who is actively trying to rank for a phrase. It's not determined by the number of pages that have an occurrence of a phrase.

And you can dig down and qualify phrases with quotes, and comparing different metrics like the number of phrases that actually occur in anchor text.

Google has a huge database of indexed sites. They do NOT feed back results for every page just because it is indexed.

If you are using broad term keyword phrase occurrences to determine competition you are going to be mislead.

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internetmarketer99

15 years ago

Originally Posted by InternetMarketingIQ

I am at a total loss why people think occurances of a keyword phrase = competition. It doesn't.

Competition is determined by who is actively trying to rank for a phrase. It's not determined by the number of pages that have an occurrence of a phrase.

And you can dig down and qualify phrases with quotes, and comparing different metrics like the number of phrases that actually occur in anchor text.

Google has a huge database of indexed sites. They do NOT feed back results for every page just because it is indexed.

If you are using broad term keyword phrase occurrences to determine competition you are going to be mislead.

Sorry, but that's just wrong. Has nothing to do with whether or not someone is "actively trying" to rank. If a page appears high in the SERPS, and you're trying to rank for that phrase, that's your competition.

There are a zillion pages that rank high for a zillion phrases that aren't "actively trying".

Mark

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Steven Carl Kelly 15 years ago

Originally Posted by InternetMarketingIQ

I am at a total loss why people think occurances of a keyword phrase = competition. It doesn't.

I think the problem is that there has been way too much lazy teaching by so-called SEO "experts" or just too much misinformation being shared around and incorrectly accepted as good information.

But hey, when you're trying to sell people something, I guess saying: "I rank #5 overall out of 41,000,000 results at Google" sounds a lot more impressive than "I rank #5 out of 1,000 results at Google".
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Joe118

15 years ago

Thanks Kurt. I am learning a lot from this discussion.

You're right about personalized results and regional results. I hadn't considered that part.

As to people getting 100 results instead of 10, I wager it's not that many. Do you have any info on that?

Thanks

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kb5000

Banned 15 years ago

[DELETED]

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Joe118 15 years ago

Originally Posted by kb5000

im not certain about this

Oh are you trying to raise your post count?
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Joe118

15 years ago

Thanks for that, SCK. This simple concept seems to be so difficult to grasp, I don't know how to convey it to people... Geez. And before we go again -- yes, I'd prefer to rank #11 for a very high traffic keyword over #1 for a very low traffic keyword. But that's comparing apples to oranges.

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Cosmo Demopoulos

15 years ago

Hi TinkerAndPo,

Here's what I've seen lately. Ridiculously high numbers for a day or two, then a reasonable numbers after that. I see them as just glitches in the GooglePlex, and yeah, they're annoying as hell. Maybe they put them in on purpose?

When the numbers look shakey, I recheck them the next day or two and then a week later. Annoying? Yes!

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jsherloc

15 years ago

I have specifically noticed this type of of thing occurring the past month or so as well.

I seem to only notice it when I am checking a search phrase out using "quotes".

Like, I will check "blue toys" and it will say 6,300 results.

Then I check it the next day, "blue toys", and it says something crazy like 317,000.

I have been using Market Samurai a good amount the past few months, but I still use manual search strings in between using the software, so at first I thought it might be related. Like, maybe I am overloading Google with SEO-related search requests or something and it is giving me bad/messed up info. I think I am just paranoid, but it is just weird...

Google might be messing with SEO's everywhere. Self-awareness, SkyNet is HERE. hehe

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Google's grossly over-inflated results...just me?

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