What are my chances of ranking on page 1 for this?

Been doing some research for mini sites, and found a three word term that has 2000 exact search matches in the google keyword tool. There are also variations of the term which have a few thousand searches between them.

I have analysed the sites on page 1 of google serps for this term. The number 1 site is PR:1 and has 43 inlinks according to the yahoo site explorer. These 43 links are all from relevant sites, and around pr 0 to pr 2, however they are ALL reciprocal links organised through a local link exchange.

Site number 2 is PR1 and has 9 inlinks. Site 3 is pr 4 and has 16 inlinks. The rest of the first page is a similiar story.

The stop 3 search results are not exact match domain names, and their sites are not very well optomised for the keyword.

If i launch a site with an exact match domain, and well optomised content, how many backlinks do you think I would need to get in the top 3? It would be very hard to get traffic anywhere else, so search engine traffic is vital to make this venture worthwhile.

The reason I am so keen is because its a very juicy CPC indeed - I would only need a handful of targetted visitors per day to make a very handsome profit. There are also some great CPA offers open to me too.

Just to clarify, if we are all launched at the same time and had 0 links, im pretty sure I would beat the other sites on content alone, its just their age and inlinks that i need to beat with my own inlinks.

Thanks