Expected Adsense Revenue

are they exact searches? use local searches, i hear...

if you have an extra 10 dollars around... try it out... see what you learn...

i'm probably not an expert... but... just mo

IS my friend very very little amount, so if you are lucky you will earn about 1500*1.5..
But this may not represent the real life situation

The revenue is going to be really low.

I haven't done any work with Adsense but it is definitely an area of IM that I am looking to get into later in the year.
Here are some basic stats though:

Statistically the top page in google gets around 45% of the traffic. Ideally you need to find out how many 'exact' searches your keywords get. These happen when users type your 'exact' keywords into google, not any other words as well.
I'm not 100% sure on this, but I think you will get around 65% of the value of each CPC. I.e. if your word is $1.50, you will get about 98c per click.
The one stat that I can't help you with though is how many clicks you will get. This will be determined by your site layout, and if the user is attracted to your link.

If the avg CPC is around 1.50, that is a great keyword to target to make money in adsense. You're missing 1 part of the equation tho about ranking to page 1 of Google tho, 2500 exact is good, low comp is good, but you have to do research on your competition on the first page. PR? How many backlinks do they have? Are they authority sites? Those factors will help you determine if you can rank to #1. I only go after keywords I know I have a shot, otherwise, why waste your time, look for small sites to pick on, not big authority sites.

There are numerous ways in which you can attempt to estimate the potential AdSense earnings of a new site, based on the keywords you're looking to target, and so on; the reality is that 90% of the time your estimations are going to be so far off, they're completely worthless.

There are just too many factors and variables to take into consideration.

As far as keywords go, looking at the global search volume is a little pointless, because even if you were to rank highly in Google US (which is where most people assume the majority of English-language keyword searches are originating), you may find that there are no relevant advertisements available for users visiting your site from there.

Conversely, there may be some very high CPC ads in a given country, but comparatively little traffic to match up with it.

Then of course, there's no way to know for sure what you're likely to earn through AdSense, per click, for any given keyword, as Google doesn't make this data available. The best you can hope to do is look at the average bid price price in Google's Keyword Tool, or through a site like SpyFu. But these estimates, I think, are for the ads on Google's site - not sites across the content network - where CPCs are generally much higher. CPCs on sites in the content network (AdSense) can differ substantially, and even more so between different sites, depending on the quality of traffic and your "conversion rates" (due to Google's "Smart Pricing").

So yes, look at CPCs for keywords you're going to target. They can sometimes give you some idea as to where your efforts are best channelled (or where they're likely to be most wasted), but nothing is guaranteed, and in the end you're just going to have to test and see.

More important than looking at CPCs, I'd say, is to look at the "number of advertisers" for each keyword, in each region where you're looking to rank in Google. But again, the numbers are not guaranteed, and cannot be substantiated. At best, they can provide (sometimes false!) reassurance.

Some sites/pages/keywords for which you had high hopes, can fall flat on their faces and be most disappointing, indeed. Some which you gave little thought to can be most pleasantly surprising.

Uncertainty is, I'm afraid, the nature of the AdSense beast.

As DireStraits pointed out, the CPC number you are seeing is for Search, which pays considerably more than Content.

In addition, you are seeing the cost for Ad Position 1, which in the case of the Content network means the top ad in the first adblock. Each subsequent ad will decrease, often significantly. If the payout for that first ad in the first adblock is $1, but someone clicks on ad #2, #3, etc., that can swiftly drop to a few cents.

You should also realize that the traffic volume numbers you are looking at are thresholds, not actual numbers - this is why you see numbers like 2400, 3000, 1200, etc., rather than 2368, etc.

At Position 1, you can expect somewhere in the neighborhood of 50%. However, once a visitor lands on your page, only a percentage will click an ad, and depending on the type of search and the layout of your page, can vary anywhere from 50% down to less than 1%. If your page and layout isn't extremely well optimized for Adsense, you should not expect conversions above 5%.

Michael