few questions about adsense

There is no clear cut answer to your question and if anyone makes a comment there is they are mistaking.

So before I begin, I can help with keyword research - Keyword & Niche Researcg

On the other stuff
Variables
!. You would have to be in the number one position in google to even getting close to that amount of traffic.
2. The $1.50 is what the guestament of what an advertiser would be paying google to be in the top placement for their ad in a search result. This changes at any moment.
3. If you are going to be running an adsense campaign on your personal website or blog that is advertisement on content and does not pay as much. Generally there less exact keyword matched advertises in this market. Businesses that advertise on content want to spend money where the traffic is. New websites and blogs generally do not have a lot of traffic at the start.
4. Adsense placement. Remember adsense is an auction and the advertisers ad placement is in descending order of their auction bid. So in theory to get top dollar the viewer has to pick the first ad on your website.
5. CTR-There is a ton of things that reflect on the CTR. Theme used, ad placement but mostly content. There are volumes of opinions on this. Some say great content brings up CTR (it doesn't). Generally there is two types of content that do well.
a) Reviews: People are looking on social assurance that what ever they want a review for is the best,cheapest, greatest thing on the planet. If your adsense reflects that particular product there is a good chance they will click the ad.
b) The Promise Site: These kind of websites say "Get your coupons for "x" here", and when the viewers come to get their coupons they are told how to get the coupons and not actually have coupons. So they click the adsense ads that say "get them here"

In my experience the "promise" sites get the best CTR. Some of my sites get regularly 30 to 50 percent CTR. (some not much of any)

I hope I have shed a little light
arnold55
mike reynolds

The different parameters that an IMer would "go" for concerning exact match searches, cpc, strength of competition, etc. will vary heavily from marketer to marketer. While not an exact science, we've created a Niche Site Profit Calculator you can use to get a rough estimate of what the site might earn on that keyword if you were to build it, get it ranked, etc...check it out here:

Niche Site Profit Calculator | AdSense Flippers