Let's do some math
 

By using standard CTR and convertion rate i came up with the following. Please tell me if I am missing something.

I pick a product to promote, a good one, with a nice sale page. If the traffic is targeted i would expect to convert at least 1% of visitors.

Than i pick a traffic method, such a banner ads, where i can get 1000 imp for 2 bucks or less.
With a CTR of 0.5% i need to buy 20000 impression to generate 100 visitors that should turn into one sale.

So, if i can make more than 40 bucks/sale i would have found a profitable well.

I am too optimistic?

Thank you guys.

Re: Let's do some math
 

I didn't bother to check your math, but ultimately I think the math is less important than you think.

After all, it's not just about the first sale, it's about the lifetime value of that customer. For instance, maybe your product is only $30, so you've initially lost $10 on those customers. But as part of your strategy, you've captured your customers' email addresses and in the next few months you manage to sell two other products to those customer for $100. Suddenly, you're no longer down $10, but up $90. Moreover, if those customer are happy, they might refer friends who want the same product. Now you're up $120.

Other people might have different business models, but in my experience the most successful businesses are the ones that are the best at getting repeat customers and word-of-mouth referrals. Of course, to do that you also have to offer a really solid product and really earn the trust of your customers -- but hopefully you're working towards that anyway!