Truth Please: The Money is In The List or Offer?

Ok, so looking at the 40-40-20 rule another way (just thinking out loud here, let me know if I’m wrong somewhere):

The product/service offered needs to match the list, so both are equally important in that context. (40%-40%…match the product/service to the list, and we’re 80% of the way to success.)

Where the irresistible offer (the last 20% with its price, guarantee, bonuses, graphics, etc.), is sent (the list) is more important than the offer itself. (Both are important, but the best offer in the world won’t do anything if it doesn’t reach someone that needs/wants the product/service, regardless of the quality of the offer.)

So, if the product/service is well matched to the list, then degrees of success after that point are determined by the quality of the offer. Matching the product/service to the list is clearly the most important initial factor (80%).

It does make intuitive sense that a poor offer to a well-matched list would have a better chance of success than a good offer to a poorly matched list.

That's a good find. Thanks for sharing.

Let's look at this from another angle:

The way we interpret this formula is just as important as the formula itself.

For e.g. according to this formula the offer 40% and the everything else including copy 20% counts for 60% right?

Ok, but in order for this 60% to be successful it still needs to be matched to the right list 40%. This means that the success of the offer is mutually dependent on being matched with the right list.

The list owner's relationship with their list is also important. If the list owner has a good enough relationship with his/her list, their subscribers will buy almost anything they recommend. In this case even an average-good offer will be a hit with that list.

So if the argument is "Offer VS The List" then the argument itself is flawed as you can't achieve a successful campaign (according to the formula) without elements of both present.

This lets both parties off the hook.

P.S. As far as formulas go, there's usually more than one way to achieve an objective for e.g. look at the copywriting greats. They all have their own styles and formulas but all have managed to forge out their own very successful careers doing the same thing: Copywriting.

Good point ... and tune. But which one rules?