A happy ending could be near

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Here are 2 articles the first from the Atlantic was from 2017 and the second from Real Clear Politics was from 2019

https://www.theatlantic.com/technolo...-rates/573337/


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...na_139960.html

They are about the epacket shipping from China. The reason that people in china and other countries can ship certain products so cheaply is due to a agreement that countries put in place to allow people to send letters and packages to family in different countries. This was a good idea until people started to take advantage of it.

In my opinion this should be re-negotiated so families can still send letters anywhere for a reasonable price, and maybe one package every other month and limit the size.

I am all for competition as long as it is fair competition. If you want to ship from china then you should have to pay for that shipping not take advantage of a program set up to allow families to keep in touch with each other.

Your thoughts

al
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  • Profile picture of the author dave_hermansen
    Well, I think that in business, you should take advantage of every option to lower your costs that you can (within reason). I really doubt you will get much support here for raising the costs of businesses to ship packages from China to the U.S., since that is what so many people here's business models are built around. Then again, everyone would be on the same playing field, so it's not like anyone would have a competitive advantage.

    I must also point out that neither article supports your contention that e-packet is "a program set up to allow families to keep in touch with each other." The Atlantic Article states something quite the opposite, saying that "the U.S. Postal Service entered into a bilateral agreement with China Post that gave sellers first-class tracking and delivery confirmation for very low rates as long as an item was an "ePacket" product, weighing less than 4.4 pounds." According to the article, the program was specifically set up for businesses, not families.

    The Real Clear Politics article states that American taxpayers are paying for this shipping "subsidy" (it's not really a subsidy - it is a price break). What they fail to mention is that eliminating the shipping price break would NOT ease the burden on taxpayers. They'll just now pay increased shipping costs for goods shipped from China. It's a wash!

    Whether or not those slightly increased shipping costs would make any differences whatsoever to the U.S. businesses mentioned in the article is debatable. Their product still costs far more to make than the Chinese ones and a $1 increase in shipping costs isn't going to make up for the huge cost disparity. The only effect of eliminating e-packet is that it will take 2-3 times more time to ship a product to the U.S. Nobody is going to notice or care about an extra dollar in shipping but they will definitely notice if it takes 4-6 weeks to get something they ordered!

    On a side note, I can't help but notice how the Real Clear Politics article notes that the USPS is part of the U.S. government. It's interesting how, for political reasons, the USPS is sometimes referred to as a government organization and at other times, the same "news" organizations adamantly insist that USPS is NOT part of the federal government (you'll see that side of the argument whenever the massive deficit due to USPS pensions and taxpayer-funded government health insurance programs comes up in a discussion).
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    • Profile picture of the author agmccall
      Originally Posted by dave_hermansen View Post


      I must also point out that neither article supports your contention that e-packet is "a program set up to allow families to keep in touch with each other." The Atlantic Article states something quite the opposite, saying that "the U.S. Postal Service entered into a bilateral agreement with China Post that gave sellers first-class tracking and delivery confirmation for very low rates as long as an item was an "ePacket" product, weighing less than 4.4 pounds." According to the article, the program was specifically set up for businesses, not families.
      I get that maybe not for families. But the original purpose is to ship letters, not products.

      As far as us subsidizing the postal service, we are. They are shipping packages for basically the price of a stamp instead of around 8 bucks. If they have to pay at least correct amount it would go a long way. Might even reduce the cost of stamps. It should but I doubt it would happen.

      I myself have ordered stuff from ali express, waited a month to get the product with free shipping. But, If I had to pay 15 or 20 dollars for shipping I would just pay extra and get it from a US seller, I would not pay high shipping costs and then have to wait.

      We can agree to disagree that is fine with me. I just do not think, as a seller , I should have to pay $10.00 for something shipped 100miles when a competitor pays less than a dollar abusing a system.

      al
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    • Profile picture of the author savidge4
      Originally Posted by dave_hermansen View Post

      I really doubt you will get much support here for raising the costs of businesses to ship packages from China to the U.S., since that is what so many people here's business models are built around. Then again, everyone would be on the same playing field, so it's not like anyone would have a competitive advantage.
      First of all I TOTAL support this.. I cant wait... because, YES it does level of the playing field, and YES it will give me as a US based seller, selling to US based clients primarily a HUGE advantage. Same price, same postage and I can have it there is 3 days, or you can order from China and it might take a week, and can take up to 30 days. If the price is CLOSE.. this becomes a no brainer.

      So this whole thing played out last fall... I think I found a total of like 5 or 6 articles at the time relating to the "Story" and most of what I read was on the lines of "Oh no, what is Canada going to do I the USA pulls out?" I could argue that this is probably the most prolific business change the world over that will happen in my lifetime.

      July 2020 is really only the beginning. The increase we will be seeing in July is actually the back dated 2018 increase, and then according to the calendar of increases there is one for each year 2019, 2020, and 2021. As I understand it, there will be price adjustments every 6 months.

      Here is a link to the maximum allowed increases for each of the 4 increase years.: ( http://www.upu.int/uploads/tx_sbdown...drAnnex1En.pdf ) to help in reading this the "SDR Rate" ( Special Drawing Rights Rate ) uses the US Dollar as the standard and it equates to $1.38 USD. To be honest I am not sure if the increases are actually listed in USD or if that is a percentage.

      What makes the whole thing wildly confusing is there are a total of 192 Countries that are a part of this organization. So obviously not every rate for each country is going to increase 4 times in the next 2 years. Those numbers on the page I linked to are MAXIMUM'S.

      What I believe will happen here is we are going to witness an amount of power shift across most of Asia as an example. I think we can all agree that China is going to be hit with the greatest increase... I think we might all agree that neighboring countries such as South Korea, and the Philippines might see decreases. So it may come to pass that China might all of the sudden become "nice" in the region, and open warehouses in neighboring countries to export goods at the lower postage rate.

      A lot of this is really time will tell. There has never been a rate sheet of any kind that I have ever seen. So using the old system there would have been 5 rates Zone 1 thru Zone 5 and NOW, there can be 192 separate rates per country and each country could be different. It should be an interesting ride!
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  • Profile picture of the author Kay King
    It is interesting to me the USPS agreement (not govt as ponted out above) was in 2011 - and in 2013 and 14 USPS rates INCREASED.


    It doesn't matter whether the USPS is to ship letters or packages - what matters is a level pllaying field.


    My concern with China shipped products is the lack of transparency for those ordering products. On ebay products are listed as 'sold from USA' with a California PORT address. On Amazon drop shippers and chinese sellers change 'receipt date' after order - provide false FEDEX tracking codes. Most people do not realize their product is coming from China.


    I understand the necessity for having some sort of 'break' for businesses on shipping costs but I also think a 'shipped from' location should be a requirement and should have an honest location listed.


    Have to wonder had the USPS given such a sweet deal to Amazon - would Amazon have developed it's own shipping system? That's created a lot of jobs.


    LIke many issues, this is not a cut and dried, right and wrong... it's complex and one question leads to another.
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  • Profile picture of the author IGotMine
    Here's an interesting article I came across a couple of days ago:

    This agreement goes into effect July 1, 2020 and you can bet that shipping from China will go up in price dramatically!

    While the exact shipping prices have not yet been declared, the United States and Trump came out of this deal getting pretty much everything they wanted.

    The pricing changes will apply to most packages sent internationally that are under 4.4 lbs which applies to almost every AliExpress dropshipping transaction.

    Mark my words. AliExpress dropshipping will no longer be profitable starting July 1, 2020. If you are currently considering this business model, there is already a countdown timer on its demise.
    https://mywifequitherjob.com/aliexpr...berlo-epacket/
    Of course, it's just opinion.

    I really doubt you will get much support here for raising the costs of businesses to ship packages from China to the U.S
    Ya got one!
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  • Profile picture of the author Kay King
    They'll just now pay increased shipping costs for goods shipped from China. It's a wash!

    Most people ordering from a drop shipper don't know they are ordering from China. That's something most people on this forum don't mention when they talk about 'drop shipping'.
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  • Profile picture of the author Kay King
    If the price is CLOSE.. this becomes a no brainer.

    I do that all the time. If I look for a product on Amazon, the shipping dates often tell me 'where' it might be coming from. Not much in the US take 2-3 weeks to ship. I'll pay more - get my free prime shipping...and buy from a US seller.


    Something that may hurt drop shippers much more than shipping costs - is the information being added to many drop ship SUPPLIER sites right now. Several I found had 'notices' reassuring site owners that 'shipping is is safe from the virus'...though the experts say they do not know if this is true.


    Some sites that are obviously selling products from China have seen sales drop by 50-75% due to the pandemic. Could be a big 'hit' for many sites. If someone is afraid - telling them not to be afraid doesn't work.
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    • Profile picture of the author savidge4
      Originally Posted by Kay King View Post

      I do that all the time. If I look for a product on Amazon, the shipping dates often tell me 'where' it might be coming from. Not much in the US take 2-3 weeks to ship. I'll pay more - get my free prime shipping...and buy from a US seller.

      Something that may hurt drop shippers much more than shipping costs - is the information being added to many drop ship SUPPLIER sites right now. Several I found had 'notices' reassuring site owners that 'shipping is is safe from the virus'...though the experts say they do not know if this is true.

      Some sites that are obviously selling products from China have seen sales drop by 50-75% due to the pandemic. Could be a big 'hit' for many sites. If someone is afraid - telling them not to be afraid doesn't work.
      We are right now importing at scale from China in front of the Increases that will happen over the next 2 years. You are correct, there has not been an "Official" word on the length of air-borne life of the 2019-nCov novel virus.

      China historically sees drops during the Spring Festival (Chinese New Year )... So to say because of the Pandemic I might wince at that a bit. However Feb 6th? was supposed to be the end of the festival and everyone back to work and school, and now it looks like the 20th maybe? and in many regions it will not be until March 1 at the soonest.

      Even with no flights and no transport and this and that, there is still things moving within China at the least, and we have actually received some orders, that we simply were not expecting. So basically I believe all the speculation of sales drops is far more "Historic" than I think an effect of what is going on currently.
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  • Profile picture of the author dave_hermansen
    Well, as the majority of people have pointed out on this thread, this has been addressed by the Trump administration, so the premise of the post is lost.

    Now, whether or not this makes a huge difference is another matter entirely. Those Chinese-made products still cost far less than their American-made counterparts because the price of labor is so much cheaper, so I'm not entirely sure that an increase in shipping rates is going to make a profound difference. The 25% tariffs that are in place and will continue to remain in place under the new agreement have helped somewhat, though (although it is really consumers that are paying for that increase).

    What WOULD make a difference is if the other provision of the Trump administration's China agreement is actually enforced - the part relating to infringing on patents and copyrights. I'm dubious, to say the least, that China will uphold that part of the deal.

    I'm not saying anyone is right or wrong here. In the end, if everything that was agreed to actually happens, it helps American businesses - especially ones who manufacture their products domestically. That's a big IF, though.
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  • Profile picture of the author AdmanMrWoo
    I THINK it was Von Mises who said, "Capitalism breathes through loopholes."
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  • Profile picture of the author Kay King
    However Feb 6th? was supposed to be the end of the festival and everyone back to work and school, and now it looks like the 20th maybe? and in many regions it will not be until March 1 at the soonest.

    The change in seasons usually marks the end of viral epidemics in China...now if they could only figure out what STARTS them....


    That would be April (?) and if it follows pattern, the number of cases will rapidly decline and the story disappear from the news. However, there may come a time when the virus has mutated to survive weather change - and there's always the fear that THIS is the time.


    Smart to stock up while you can - and my guess is most drop shippers don't maintain a reserve that allows them to increase orders in advance of possible cost increases.
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