5 {{ upvoteCount | shortNum }}
5 {{ upvoteCount | shortNum }}

Returning & Organic Customer Forecasting

by Petgomez
4 replies
  • ECOMMERCE
    • |
New to the forum and hoping the Warrior Forum members can help me out where Google is failing!

I'm in the final stages of planning for a new Ecommerce site selling tabletop, board and card games. Primary market is the UK with some business expected from Europe.

My P & L is almost done but I'm struggling to get any data on organic and returning customers for the first 12 months. Appreciate both are dependent on a number of factors but at present I am shooting in the dark and struggling to find ANY kind of guidance via a Google Search.

The plan is to launch with a strong content plan - there are almost unlimited opportunities in this market for relevant and engaging content, both in video, blog and social/UGC form. I am reasonably comfortable putting together a plan that will target SEO opportunities and already have a long list of potential content sharers.

For retention I have a number of ideas including an innovate strategy that could lead to around 40% of my customers being rewarded with store credit, personalised email campaigns and a enhanced customer delivery experience.

Gaming customers typically purchase each month with a consistent AOV.

At present I have returning customers in month 2 at 2% of the previous months customers. The % then increases by 1.5% each month (so month 3 has 3.5% of customers returning and so on). For organic I am currently lowballing with 0.2% of sales from organic with this increasing to 1.5% by month 12.

So, my question is - can anyone provide any guidance of what I should forecast for in my P & L for returning and organic customers months 1 - 12? Could I increase my current forecasts?
#customer #forecasting #organic #returning
Avatar of Unregistered
  • Profile picture of the author Kay King
    the final stages of planning for a new Ecommerce site
    You don't have the site as yet? Have you built/run similar sites in ecommerce?

    If everything is in the 'planning stage' and you don't have prior experience with build up an ecommerce site...any numbers are going to be guesses. Perhaps 'educated guesses' but there is no platform to base projections on so you have to rely on the goals you've set.

    Could I increase my current forecasts?
    They are your forecasts so of course you could. Whether it is realistic or not to increase forecasts is another conversation.

    One question - why so much focus on a P&L? While it is necessary to have budget, projections, goals...I think of a detailed P&L as a step toward obtaining financing. Just curious.


    If it were me - I'd do hopeful yet realistic P&L numbers and launch the site/products. Three months, six months, 9 months into the project I'd run the actual numbers and adjust forecasts accordingly.
    Signature
    Saving one dog will not change the world - but the world changes forever for that one dog
    ***
    2024 Patriot's Award for Service to Veterans
    {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[11620748].message }}
    • Profile picture of the author Petgomez
      Thanks for the reply.

      This is my first Ecommerce site so I have nothing to compare to or use as a yardstick. The problem is that there are a number of metrics that, if incorrect in forecasting, could move a profitable project into one that will never work. I have some solid data for conversion, CPC and AOV for the market but the figures for returning customer % or organic % are simply not available. In fact I can't find any figures at all for returning customers or organic for months 1 - 12 for any kind of Ecommerce site.

      I appreciate that these figures are dependent, to a large degree, on the market you are operating in and the strategies employed. However, I'm hoping that there is enough info in my original post for someone to be able to advise on a very rough ballpark figure or let me know what their own experiences have been.

      I've put together a P & L because this is the first Ecommerce project I've put together and it's a complex marketplace with complex marketing strategies needed. However, at the moment I am basically making these numbers (retention & returning customers) up so I'm trying to find a way to add any level of confidence to these areas.
      {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[11620751].message }}
      • Profile picture of the author Frank Donovan
        Originally Posted by Petgomez View Post

        This is my first Ecommerce site so I have nothing to compare to or use as a yardstick. The problem is that there are a number of metrics that, if incorrect in forecasting, could move a profitable project into one that will never work.
        The forecasting will have no effect on the profitability. As Kay pointed out, P&L forecasts are designed to raise finance - they seldom, if ever, bear any relation to an actual outcome.

        In practice, there are always too many unforeseen variables that can and will occur. All you can do in advance is research the market to ensure there are enough existing buyers and promotion channels through which you can reach them.

        The huge advantage of marketing an e-commerce business over a brick and mortar one is the speed of feedback. This allows you to alter or modify your promotion campaigns and minimize any potential marketing losses.

        Rather than a forecast, you start with a minimum profit target which might be time or revenue related and then monitor your progress along the way, tweaking where necessary.
        Signature

        {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[11620763].message }}
  • Profile picture of the author Petgomez
    Sorry - appreciate the feedback but all I'm really asking for here is what peoples experience has been for organic customer figures and returning customer percentages. Don't even care what products/niches/market these figures are from - would just love to know what ballparks there are.

    I'm not sure why we're talking about whether a P & L is necessary, the right tool or the right terminology - it's not what I'm asking for help on. I don't need help creating a forecast, doing market research or producing profit target - I need help understanding where I can expect a couple of my metrics to be.
    {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[11620772].message }}
Avatar of Unregistered

Trending Topics