Euro / Dollar exchange: market movers and weekly forecasts by Credit Agricole
After two weeks of decline, on Friday the Euro / Dollar exchange has closed five more days of recovery dictated by the intrinsic weakness that has characterized the U.S. dollar in the last few sessions. Are the United States close to the tapering ? This is the question that will keep the markets hold their breath until Wednesday 18th.
This week there will be new important macro data in publication, and particularly "hot" market movers. Expected for today the speech of Mario Draghi at the BDI, the equivalent of Confindustria in Germany; in the coming days we'll have instead the data on the ZEW index, the trade balance and inflation. Let's see what will be the appointments this week and what are the prospects in the euro / dollar exchange.
Euro / Dollar exchange: this week's market movers
This week's market movers will be quite varied, but one thing is certain: the main protagonist will be the U.S. dollar.
Monday
Expected for today the intervention of Mario Draghi, who will speak at 10:00 at the meeting of the German Confederation. In his last speech, Draghi spoke of the need to carry forward the project of the European integration through a political union. Great expectations, therefore, for what will be his speech before an audience rather delicate. Recall that September 22nd will the day of the German elections.
Tuesday
The ZEW index, measuring the economic sentiment in Germany, will be published today. In the last reading, the index has reported a value of 42.0 points, up from 36.3 recorded in the month of July and at the highest level since March, compared to the forecast which had estimated an increase of 40.3 points. The latest positive data from Germany indicate a substantial improvement in the area and, for this, analysts expect a value of 47.2 points for this reading.
Wednesday
It will be the Federal Reserve's day: expect a "special" day. We will not have data from the eurozone and the focus of the day will be the United States. The FOMC statement and the press conference will not arrive before 20:00 Italian time and expectations, needless to say, are very high. Will the Federal Reserve start the tapering, or will it decide to wait? We'll know for sure only on Wednesday, for now we can only speculate.
Thursday
Again a day dedicated to the Dollar with the data on unemployment claims, on the housing market and the ever after Philly Fed Manifacturing Index.
Euro / Dollar exchange: technical considerations
Last week began with a cross in struggle on the 1.3175 line. Subsequently exchanges have led the Euro / Dollar upwards toward the 1.3240 line. The bullish attempts didn't stop there, but they haven't been able to break the new resistance at 1.3325 before closing the week at 1.33.
Today gap-up, the 5 minutes chart
At the start of this week, before the European session takes life, the markets are cautious and on the Euro / Dollar exchange rates we are witnessing a phase of consolidation in the 1.3370 area, a gap-up area reached overnight after the news of the possible withdrawal of Larry Summers from the competition for the new governor of the Federal Reserve.
Euro / Dollar exchange: weekly forecast by Credit Agricole
According to the bank Credit Agricole, this week's trading on the Euro / Dollar exchange could be "disturbed" by news and headlines on the hottest topics of the moment: the Federal Reserve policy and political tensions (elections) in Europe.
Nevertheless, the Credit Agricole analysis explains:
This week there will be new important macro data in publication, and particularly "hot" market movers. Expected for today the speech of Mario Draghi at the BDI, the equivalent of Confindustria in Germany; in the coming days we'll have instead the data on the ZEW index, the trade balance and inflation. Let's see what will be the appointments this week and what are the prospects in the euro / dollar exchange.
Euro / Dollar exchange: this week's market movers
This week's market movers will be quite varied, but one thing is certain: the main protagonist will be the U.S. dollar.
Monday
Expected for today the intervention of Mario Draghi, who will speak at 10:00 at the meeting of the German Confederation. In his last speech, Draghi spoke of the need to carry forward the project of the European integration through a political union. Great expectations, therefore, for what will be his speech before an audience rather delicate. Recall that September 22nd will the day of the German elections.
Tuesday
The ZEW index, measuring the economic sentiment in Germany, will be published today. In the last reading, the index has reported a value of 42.0 points, up from 36.3 recorded in the month of July and at the highest level since March, compared to the forecast which had estimated an increase of 40.3 points. The latest positive data from Germany indicate a substantial improvement in the area and, for this, analysts expect a value of 47.2 points for this reading.
Wednesday
It will be the Federal Reserve's day: expect a "special" day. We will not have data from the eurozone and the focus of the day will be the United States. The FOMC statement and the press conference will not arrive before 20:00 Italian time and expectations, needless to say, are very high. Will the Federal Reserve start the tapering, or will it decide to wait? We'll know for sure only on Wednesday, for now we can only speculate.
Thursday
Again a day dedicated to the Dollar with the data on unemployment claims, on the housing market and the ever after Philly Fed Manifacturing Index.
Euro / Dollar exchange: technical considerations
Last week began with a cross in struggle on the 1.3175 line. Subsequently exchanges have led the Euro / Dollar upwards toward the 1.3240 line. The bullish attempts didn't stop there, but they haven't been able to break the new resistance at 1.3325 before closing the week at 1.33.
Today gap-up, the 5 minutes chart
At the start of this week, before the European session takes life, the markets are cautious and on the Euro / Dollar exchange rates we are witnessing a phase of consolidation in the 1.3370 area, a gap-up area reached overnight after the news of the possible withdrawal of Larry Summers from the competition for the new governor of the Federal Reserve.
Euro / Dollar exchange: weekly forecast by Credit Agricole
According to the bank Credit Agricole, this week's trading on the Euro / Dollar exchange could be "disturbed" by news and headlines on the hottest topics of the moment: the Federal Reserve policy and political tensions (elections) in Europe.
On the (slightly) more positive side, while Berlusconi's inconclusive Italian Senate hearing prolongs political uncertainty, EUR investors will likely acknowledge it at least delays the risk of an immediate coalition government collapse.If tensions will fall out in Italy (even temporarily), they seem ready to go out on the German front with the elections just around the corner and the AfD party about to gain seats in Parliament.
Nevertheless, the Credit Agricole analysis explains:
So, regardless of ongoing political constraints, we maintain our view the EUR/USD can re-test its 20 August high of 1.3452 this week.Even if the Euro / Dollar exchange was to reach the 1.3452 area, what might happen next?