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[Interesting] Need help with UK market mystery?

by skepticaldoubt
4 replies
What signs should I look for to see if there could be a viable market in the UK?

There is a niche similar to a cash 4 old cell phones business model but it's something else.

I am trying to see if this model which is definitely working in the US would also work in the UK. The market the model is based around is large (though seemingly much smaller than the US), well known and well established in the UK. There are small signs that this model is already working in the UK such as ebay and a small number of sites.

What I can't figure out is:-

1) Why isn't this model already well established like the US?
2) Why the market is so much smaller than the US than one would expect?

Here is some of the things I have found out which help to paint the picture.

Signs of the market in the US
  • One successful company had forbes article recently as world's blankiest blank and large funding.
  • At least +20 sites doing the same thing.
  • Activity on ebay/reddit other popular forums/listings sites.
  • One company showing +100,000 inventory of available product.
  • The product the niche market is based around has high US annual value. (+$100 Billion) [i am not sure about the accuracy of this figure it's what is being reported but it doesn't say what is actually being measured, but it is definately going to be larger than the UK]
  • Key Word Search Volume:- Main Market 59,000/mth US searches - Niche Market 24,000/mth US searches
  • Comments online showing that there is a problem which needs/is being solved.
Signs of UK Market
  • 3 Companies with same business model but showing few signs of much traffic.
  • 1of the 3 companies is a UK version of a US based site which had the +100000inventory but UK inventory is reported as just 200units
  • Similar activity on ebay (could be some difference in the way ebay.com shows numbers than ebay.co.uk)
  • Some forum/listings sites activity
  • The product the niche market is based around has growing UK annual value. ($7.5 Billion) [accurate figure based on total $ value sales, possibly not the same measurement reported in US]
  • The 2nd site/app of 3 is backed by a foreign entrepreneur with some other big name apps behind him.
  • This 2nd site also only has inventory showing of 200units
  • Key Word Search Volume:- Main Market 18,000/mth UK searches - Niche Market 500/mth UK searches
  • Forum activity which clearly talks of a problem and the problem of trading this product on ebay which this site would solve.
So to summarize I am basically getting mixed signals. There seems to be some signs of activity on ebay and a couple of companies who should know what they are doing working in this market with one of those actively pursuing it as their primary market.


But to contrast that there are low signs of an existing customer base/market and there is almost non existent search volumes.


The reason why I am looking into this is I can't understand why it wouldn't be a market in the UK.



What are your thoughts?

What other indicators can I look for?
Could I just try to set-up a dummy page and see if I can validate the concept?
#interesting #market #mystery
  • Profile picture of the author trevord92
    Your description is clear as mud.

    I think you're saying that:
    • The market is established in the US but not the UK
    • There are less sellers here in the UK than in the US
    • The market isn't showing up much in the keyword planner
    The UK has less population than the US, so I'd expect our market to be smaller.

    Often companies in the UK will take exploratory trips to the US to get ahead of their competition.

    Ideas cross the pond both ways - years ago, Felix Dennis took Maxim magazine from the UK to the US with spectacular success. At the time, there wasn't an established market for lads mags in the US and it was only just starting here in the UK.

    Some ideas cross from the USA to the UK: Starbucks, McDonald's.

    Others fail to make the crossing: Wendy's, Arby's.

    The figures in the keyword planner are computer guesstimates and are (by definition) historic. So if a market is growing, the planner will be even less accurate than it normally is.

    If the item is already being sold on eBay then you can check completed listings to find out whether it's selling.

    Or just take the plunge and test it yourself.
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    • Profile picture of the author skepticaldoubt
      Thanks that helps.

      That's interesting about Maxim. It's easy to always assume that everything is the same as you view it. I would never have imagined that there were no lads mags in the US. Very easy cognitive bias to fall into. It's only when you step back and analyse things that you see what the reality is not just what you assume it to be.

      So I guess my choice is test it out and take a small risk or find an already established market elsewhere.

      Cheers.
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      • Profile picture of the author trevord92
        Originally Posted by skepticaldoubt View Post

        Thanks that helps.
        That's interesting about Maxim. It's easy to always assume that everything is the same as you view it. I would never have imagined that there were no lads mags in the US. Very easy cognitive bias to fall into. It's only when you step back and analyse things that you see what the reality is not just what you assume it to be.
        So I guess my choice is test it out and take a small risk or find an already established market elsewhere.
        Cheers.
        Felix Dennis had the advantage of being the owner of Dennis Publishing - he spotted an opportunity (or actually lots of opportunities when he was alive) and grabbed it. His books are interesting reads - the business ones definitely, the poetry if that's your thing.

        Testing is always good

        Good luck!
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  • Profile picture of the author Oggyoi
    Markets differ even though at times they seem similar in business models.

    Supermarkets is a nice example here ;

    Tesco were number 1 in the UK, expanded into Eastern Europe and then the Far East, they attempted to take on the American market and got their ass kicked.
    Walmart bought out Asda here in the UK and since that they have been taking over market share.

    So although on the face of it we appear to be very close and similar in buying / shopping habits, there's still a huge difference in the marketplace.
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