Changed Clickbank ID. Sales Resumed Same Day. I am Now a Believer.

Harvey,

Thanks for that. People who are not yet used to your humor may wish to begin with your excellent "people with glasses parody".

You may remember that I supported and expanded on your post, arguing how apparently erratic sales figures can be explained using probabilities.

I do not consider myself a statistical expert.

In fact, apart from a final-year quantum mechanics exam, I have hardly touched statistics since leaving a job doing six-sigma and other improvement work for a large aerospace company, and that was many years ago.

I am well aware of the hazards of attempting to gain an intuitive understanding of a stochastic process, and prefer a measured scientific approach based upon empirical data.

Before the "dry spell" there was not so much data to work with, but it was enough to establish a conversion rate with a fair degree of certainty.

During the "dry spell" the (increased) traffic was coming from the same source, with the same keywords, and had the same click through rate - just no registered sales.

Almost two months of nothing and then six hours after changing the ID, a sale.

The probability beggars belief.

But yes Harvey, upon reflection I am willing to write it off as "people wearing glasses" until I check my statistical models and methods, and perhaps run them past a specialist or two for validation.

Best Regards,