Recession! Yes Or No?

by jan roos 51 replies
When I turned my Pc on this morning I saw the headline on Yahoo.com about Lehman Brothers going bankrupt and the $50 million takeover of merril lynch by Bank Of America.This cause the dow jones to fall 300 points and Obama called this news the worse financial news since the depression.

This also comes 6 months after the collapse of Bear Sterns, 14 months after the credit crunch started and a few weeks after The fed's seized mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Are we heading into a recession? Are we protected as Internet marketers?

I for one don't see a full blown recession happening but if it does I think the direct selling industry will thrive therefore I am not too worried. But i could be wrong.
#main internet marketing discussion forum #recession
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  • Profile picture of the author Daniel E Taylor
    I never worry about that stuff. I haven't been affected
    and my businesses continue to grow.

    Daniel
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  • Profile picture of the author MaskedMarketer
    Originally Posted by jan roos View Post

    When I turned my Pc on this morning I saw the headline on Yahoo.com about Lehman Brothers going bankrupt and the $50 million takeover of merril lynch by Bank Of America.This cause the dow jones to fall 300 points and Obama called this news the worse financial news since the depression.

    This also comes 6 months after the collapse of Bear Sterns, 14 months after the credit crunch started and a few weeks after The fed's seized mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

    Are we heading into a recession? Are we protected as Internet marketers?

    I for one don't see a full blown recession happening but if it does I think the direct selling industry will thrive therefore I am not too worried. But i could be wrong.
    You're forgetting about the fall of AIG and WaMu as well.. And maybe even more to come...

    According to one economic forecaster, home based businesses, direct selling, technology, and health and wellness are still due to be on the rise.

    Corporate America is falling apart
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  • Profile picture of the author SusanUSA
    BTW, Jan . . . it was a $50 BILLION takeover (stocks, not cash).

    Yes, the country is in recessions. However, I am so glad to be in this business which with wisdom and careful planning can be recession-proof!
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  • Profile picture of the author RyanLeisure
    "The worst financial news since the depression"
    That's getting a little carried away. I don't think it's that big of a deal. Obama's an idiot, but not as big of one as McCain.

    I have been wondering about how the US economy effects IM though. My other question is, what percentage of Warriors live in the US? I wonder if there's a poll or stats listed somewhere??
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    • Profile picture of the author MaskedMarketer
      Originally Posted by RyanLeisure View Post

      "The worst financial news since the depression"
      That's getting a little carried away. I don't think it's that big of a deal. Obama's an idiot, but not as big of one as McCain.
      Although I don't agree with him, hes actually very smart...

      Politicians get paid to lie...

      And hes just injecting fear into people to help his cause...
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    • It is the worst but who cares? Check out my origional reply.
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      • Profile picture of the author David Campbell
        From The Chicago Tribune, September 17, 2008:

        "Several months ago, economist David Hale had a private meeting with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke . . . At a financial conference in Florida on Tuesday, Hale, a Chicago-based economist for investment managers, hedge funds and multinational companies, paraphrased the Fed chairman's response:"

        "We have lost control," said Hale, quoting Bernanke. "We cannot stabilize the dollar. . . ."

        Economist recounts talk with Fed chairman -- chicagotribune.com
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        • Profile picture of the author Michael Shook
          It is a recession only because has thought up that name for a particular set of circumstances in the economy. Mostly the thoughts about a recession are really a pretty good lesson in buzz marketing.

          I don't mean that people are not having financial problems -- many people are. In the development I live in, a number of homes have been foreclosed on. But a number of those homes, most of them actually, have been purchased by a builder and set up for sale through one of the local real estate agencies.

          All I really mean by that is there is opportunity everywhere, and sometimes it just falls into your lap. Right when you want it most.
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  • Profile picture of the author mia7
    They are calling it the Credit Crunch here in England.
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  • Profile picture of the author Chris Lockwood
    The US is not in a recession. A recession involves 2 consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.

    The economy grew above 3% in the most recent quarter. That is far from a recession.

    And this is far from the worst economic news since the depression. The 1970s were much worse than today, with 16% mortgage rates and so on.
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    • Profile picture of the author jasonl70
      Originally Posted by Chris Lockwood View Post

      The US is not in a recession. A recession involves 2 consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.

      The economy grew above 3% in the most recent quarter. That is far from a recession.

      And this is far from the worst economic news since the depression. The 1970s were much worse than today, with 16% mortgage rates and so on.
      ahhh, the voice of reason! I get so pissed when I see the media and politicians (ie, people with an agenda) start fear mongering and fabricating a false reality.
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    • Profile picture of the author SusanUSA
      Originally Posted by Chris Lockwood View Post

      The US is not in a recession. A recession involves 2 consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.

      The economy grew above 3% in the most recent quarter. That is far from a recession.

      And this is far from the worst economic news since the depression. The 1970s were much worse than today, with 16% mortgage rates and so on.
      You are correct, Chris. With this definition we are not in a recession . . . that's true. Meanwhile, while we are not officially in a recession, mortgages are harder to qualify than in several decades past; our national debt is souring so much that it's hard to keep up with it; grocery and fuel prices have gone out of site; job losses are increasing . . .

      So maybe there is another word - is there a label that's between recession and economic downturn? Are we in a pre-recession? Obviously, I am not an economist. But I was in the housing industry and got wiped out in 2007 . . . so my world is definitily in a recession!

      Thank God for Internet Marketing where I was able to enter into my personal economic recovery . . .
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  • Profile picture of the author Rachel Goodchild
    It's world wide
    Best thing to do during a recession? Mainly ignore it- put your head down and work regardless
    There will always be desperate people. There will always be buyers...
    the only difference is how to alter your sales pitch to meet thier perceived needs
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  • Profile picture of the author Mike Montgomery
    A recession by definition is when you have 2 back to back quarters where the gross domestic product has a loss.

    I might be wrong but I don't think our economy has had one quarter with a loss yet.
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  • Profile picture of the author Mike Montgomery
    Guess should read all of the posts before I post myself.

    Now I see that someone basically posted the same as I did before I posted. oops
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  • Profile picture of the author jasonl70
    politicians are noting but sales people in the end - and we all know that people make decisions based on emotions, not logic.
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    • Profile picture of the author Michael Oksa
      Originally Posted by jasonl70 View Post

      politicians are noting but sales people in the end - and we all know that people make decisions based on emotions, not logic.
      People actually use both, though you could argue that they respond more emotionally.

      In reality, people use their logic to justify their emotions. The best sales people get the emotions worked up and then find an elegant way to logically justify it.

      You are not completely incorrect, but there is a subtle difference.

      ~Michael
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    • Profile picture of the author MaskedMarketer
      Originally Posted by jasonl70 View Post

      politicians are noting but sales people in the end - and we all know that people make decisions based on emotions, not logic.
      Yeah.. Obama has the highest amount raised in history at 66 million in a single month for a presidential campaign.

      And he has a great marketing campaign and injects alot of hype and fear in his speeches. He sure knows how to sell...
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  • Profile picture of the author PaulGee
    During previous recessions people tend to find comfort in anything that will take their mind off the hard times, thus cinemas, bingo and other entertainment venues generally did well.

    Perhaps it's time to look at some new products with the 'feel good' factor. The market is huge but often overlooked by the small marketer.
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    • Profile picture of the author MaskedMarketer
      Originally Posted by PaulGee View Post

      During previous recessions people tend to find comfort in anything that will take their mind off the hard times, thus cinemas, bingo and other entertainment venues generally did well.
      Yeah.. Damn those sports players still getting 10 million a year...
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      • Profile picture of the author jan roos
        With the presidential election just around the corner I could easily see how the candidate's will take news like this and blow it out of proportion.
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        • Profile picture of the author camforbes
          The best thing to do during a recesssion is to BUY MY SH*T!

          Ha ha, just kidding (sorta).

          I don't think it's idiotic to say that this is the biggest financial mess since the great depression. We are just fortunate that we learned some lessons in the 1920's (and in the 80's with the S&L scandal) and put some safeguards in place to protect the consumer.

          The government is stepping in where it's prudent but also sitting on the sidelines where appropriate. You can't ask for more than that.

          As for the actual news?

          Lehman held on to all their debt and hoped for a bailout. It didn't come, and it was stupid for their CEO (Fuld) to think it would. (He got a $22M bonus for 2007, by the way)...

          On the other hand, Merrill Lynch was smart. They sold off a huge chunk of their poisonous mortgage investments and saved itself to be acquired by B of A!

          So... in the meantime, I think you should buy my sh*t...

          Cheers,
          Cam
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  • Profile picture of the author Mike Hill
    Just to mention another point... 20,000 people just lost their jobs today worldwide who were employed by Lehman Brothers...

    Mike Hill
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    • Profile picture of the author MaskedMarketer
      Originally Posted by Mike Hill View Post

      Just to mention another point... 20,000 people just lost their jobs today worldwide who were employed by Lehman Brothers...

      Mike Hill
      And good portion of them might turn to the internet to make money. Let's capitalize on these hard times...
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  • Profile picture of the author BobbyWalker
    I definitely think we are already in a recession and have noticed declining sales over last year at the same time and I have even more products now
    than I did last year...

    I do think marketers are affected by this, perhaps not as bad, but overall I think money is harder to come by for most people.

    Thx,

    Bobby


    Originally Posted by jan roos View Post

    When I turned my Pc on this morning I saw the headline on Yahoo.com about Lehman Brothers going bankrupt and the $50 million takeover of merril lynch by Bank Of America.This cause the dow jones to fall 300 points and Obama called this news the worse financial news since the depression.

    This also comes 6 months after the collapse of Bear Sterns, 14 months after the credit crunch started and a few weeks after The fed's seized mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

    Are we heading into a recession? Are we protected as Internet marketers?

    I for one don't see a full blown recession happening but if it does I think the direct selling industry will thrive therefore I am not too worried. But i could be wrong.
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  • Profile picture of the author Andres
    Hello Jan,

    We have been in a recession for a while now. You need to really look into the numbers and you will see the inflation rate isn't what the government is saying and the banking system is trouble.

    Here is the perfect opportunity to focus on products or services that we need regardless if there's a recession or no recession.

    That's what I think anyway,
    Andres
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  • Profile picture of the author OnlineMasterMind
    Originally Posted by jan roos View Post


    Are we heading into a recession?
    Probably...the lower and middle class at least.

    Originally Posted by jan roos View Post

    Are we protected as Internet marketers?
    Absolutely... the good ones anyway ...actually....for the "good ones," business is better than ever...
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  • Profile picture of the author Tim Franklin
    Yes and No,

    Yes, it is rough out there, when you see small business shops close the doors you know it is getting hard to make a living.

    Over the last year I have seen local businesses that have been around for 20 years, go down for the count.

    The local Mall is a ghost town...

    It is a serious problem, we have more retail space available than you can imagine, yet the price asked for this space is still at the same rates they charged years ago, ( Way too high, retail space in this area is expensive)

    Yet, the Mall is still trying to get the same high rates they have always been getting, ( all the while the mall continues to loose businesses)

    Right now there are 17 empty spots in the mall, with rumors of four more closing soon.

    I think this is a very good indication that something is terribly wrong.

    The problem is that no one seems to be aware that adjusting the rate would be something that would create business, yet the price increased on retail space at this mall, ( which is what caused the exit of some of the shops in the mall in the first place)

    It is interesting to watch these things develop, The economy is definitely down, but not down for the count, there will always be buyers and sellers in any economy, be it good bad or ugly.

    just a few thoughts,
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    • Profile picture of the author ShayB
      I remember a definition my history professor gave:

      Definition of a "slow economy" - your neighbor loses his job.

      Definition of a "recession" - you lose your job.


      Anyway.....back to the subject:

      Whether or not there is a recession does not have to affect me. Some people make lots of money in hard economic times!

      I want to be one of those people. :rolleyes:
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      • Profile picture of the author Josh Anderson
        The great thing about providing in demand products and services to businesses is that businesses need them...

        While individuals do not need big screen televisions, SUVs, and tropical vacations.

        Providing Business to Business solutions in a Global market is a great place to be.
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        • Profile picture of the author JasonKing
          Originally Posted by Josh Anderson View Post

          Providing Business to Business solutions in a Global market is a great place to be.
          Amen.

          Keyword: GLOBAL.
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        • Profile picture of the author CaptainLou
          Originally Posted by Josh Anderson View Post

          While individuals do not need big screen televisions, SUVs, and tropical vacations.
          Josh, I beg to differ! Now, more than ever, ALL people need their annual tropical vacation! What recession? My biz is up 20 to 30% year over year!

          Captain "The Economy Is Booming" Lou

          P.S. You coming with us in January?
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          • Profile picture of the author Hamida Harland
            I thought we were already in a recession here in the UK but apparently it's going to hit us properly in the last quarter of the year, with another half a million jobs yet to be lost (according to a newspaper I read yesterday).
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          • Profile picture of the author affenpinscher
            People should remember that only bad news sells newspapers, etc. If your only contact
            with the American economy was the American news media, you'd think we were
            all selling pencils and apples on street corners to survive.

            Also realize that we are in an election and the news media is doing everything possible to pump up the Democratic candidate.
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  • Profile picture of the author Amy Bass
    I can see niches for luxury items or travel not doing as well as they used to. Most people are really cutting down to the basics. Maybe it is time to focus on what people NEED instead of just what they WANT.
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    • Profile picture of the author vorales
      Yes its a Recession!

      Here in Malaysia our Stock exchange KLSI is at 2 years low.and Singapore STI and Hong Kongs Hang Seng is also low because of Lehman Bro sudden demise.

      Its just when America sneezes than the whole world gets cold n flu.

      Hopefully when Obama comes than might have some changed policies which can takecare for the world economy.
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  • Profile picture of the author derekwong28
    Whatever happened today, the full effects will not be known for at least 6-12 months. Greenspan among others is now convinced that the US will enter a recession. I am certainly feeling quite threatened about this. It is not nice watching your stocks and mutual funds go down everyday.
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    • Profile picture of the author naruq
      I don't focus on the economic news of the day. I continue to develop a success and prosperity mindset. There are millions of people all of the world buying products and services. In addition, their are entrepreneurs creating wealth throughout the world.
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  • Profile picture of the author Hugh
    In good times, it's easy to be profitable.
    In bad times, the good ones get better out of necessity
    and the bad ones fail. This helps maintain market efficiency.
    Just be sure YOU are one of the good guys/gals.

    Hugh
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    • Profile picture of the author espacecadet
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      • Profile picture of the author jan roos
        Just saw on the news that the Fed is bailing out AIG and Pumping $70 billion into the financial system. After all those rate cuts and all the money that's been pumped into the financial system things must be really bad for it not to be able to recover.

        Even then banks around the world like england germany and switzerland is allocating billions of dollars in reduced rate loans to our financial system to try and prevent a major panic which will cause stocks to fall dramatically worldwide
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          • Profile picture of the author TimPhelan
            Some people think the definition of recession is two straight negative quarters of GDP. That's wrong: it's the NBER committee that says whether there's recession
            MoneyNews - Recession Uncertain, says NBER Economist

            What's a recession anyway?

            Monthly US data on payroll employment, civilian employment, industrial production and the unemployment rate are used to define a recession-dating algorithm that nearly perfectly reproduces the NBER official peak and trough dates.
            According to NBER's latest report in August we still aren't in a recession yet using data through June.

            What's a Recession, Anyway?
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          • Profile picture of the author Kay King
            You can say the "definition for a recession has not been met" but even to economists are now questioning the validity of that definition.

            You can make one political statement after another - and accomplish nothing. You can proceed as usual assuming that only those "on the edge" or whatever are having a problem and pay little attention to the economy because it won't affect you.

            You can also hit a wall called "reality" - as 25,000 Lehman employees did this week.

            Some top economists are no longer conjecturing about whether we are "in recession" (leave that to the politicians) - they are now saying we may be in economic freefall. Anyone who doesn't see what's happening in the marketplace probably isn't paying bills or buying food and necessities.

            One restaurant here put a sign up this week - "closed due to bad economy". Guess the bad food and rude service had nothing to do with it?

            Small businesses that provide necessary services and products at fair prices are doing OK here. Nothing else is. Larger retailers and high end stores are almost empty of customers. Food costs have risen an estimated 9-15% in this area alone. One rather odd effect here is that the traditional money-saver known as WalMart is not doing all that well while the few remaining smaller groceries have adapted more quickly to providing lower cost food staples and have increased their business.

            What happens when winter hits and people are hit with fuel costs they can't afford? Will they get a bailout? Probably not.

            Point is - we are not facing one or two economic problems. We are facing downturns and crises in many sectors at once. No one seems to know where the bottom is - and once we reach it, it will be years before we've recovered economically in this country.

            If you understand the impact of what is happening on wall street and in the oil markets internationally, you can plan your business to fit the current reality and sell products people must have. Those who profit with their online businesses will do so because they provide value, good service, and keep their operating costs low. Those who ignore what is happening will be hugging the ceiling of the elevator as it falls.

            I'm writing a report for one of my sites on marketing in a bad economy - working title is "The Death of Pollyanna"

            kay
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            • Profile picture of the author MaskedMarketer
              I would agree we are in "Economic Freefall". Recession? Its just a word.

              I think we can all agree that the economy for the average person is not at all desirable.

              Wall St. was the top financial capital of the world, no? I think it all may be crumbling away. I work on Wall St. and its becoming more and more of a ghost town this past year.

              Bye Bye corporate America, lol...
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            • Profile picture of the author OnlineMasterMind
              Untold Wealth: The Rise of The Super Rich- CNBC.com

              "In 1985 there were 13 American Billionaires today there are over 1,000..."

              The question really isn't are we heading into a recession...

              The REAL QUESTION is...

              "Are YOU brainwashed by the news?"
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              • Profile picture of the author MaskedMarketer
                Originally Posted by OnlineMasterMind View Post

                Untold Wealth: The Rise of The Super Rich- CNBC.com

                "In 1985 there were 13 American Billionaires today there are over 1,000..."

                The question really isn't are we heading into a recession...

                The REAL QUESTION is...

                "Are YOU brainwashed by the news?"
                So in a little over 20 years we created around 1,000 billionaires? If thats true, let the numbers speak for themselves.. Now is the greatest time to be making money as an entrepreneur regardless of the stories you here.

                The fact is, from around the late 1700's until 1991, 3.6 million millionaires were created. Thats over 200 years it took to create 3.6 million millionaires.

                From 1991 until 2001, only tens years, the US doubled the amount of millionaires created to 7.2 million. If you don't notice how technology, home based business, direct selling, internet, and the speed of communication has changed the way we make money, then you might be in the percentage that will be "in the recession".

                The gap between the haves and have nots will only increase.
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                • Profile picture of the author dickie0228
                  Here is an excerpt from my article Recession Proof Income With Affiliate Marketing:
                  Some economists and journalists define a recession as two consecutive quarters in which the gross domestic product (GDP) decreases. The GDP is the value of all the reported goods and services produced by people and institutions operating in a country. An overall decrease in the value of goods and services indicates that demand has decreased in most markets.

                  The official determination of recession is left to the Business Cycle Dating Committee (no, that is not a relationship service for pencil pushers) at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). It is not a government agency but a private organization that works to further understand the economy. The GDP is not the most important factor they consider. They give more weight to personal income, the national employment rate, sales in manufacturing and trade, and industrial production.

                  Recession? Not yet. Crisis? Not quite. But many more weeks like the last couple and it will feel like we skipped recession and went to the next level. We forget the economy goes in cycles, as mentioned by other posters, and some are worse than others.

                  To read the whole article see http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Dickie_Smith

                  To get the Recession Proof Industries Report see Recession Proof Your Income
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            • Profile picture of the author Chris Lockwood
              Originally Posted by Kay King View Post

              One restaurant here put a sign up this week - "closed due to bad economy". Guess the bad food and rude service had nothing to do with it?
              The economy is just an excuse. Why are only a few restaurants closing? Why do some have a line to get a table?

              Do you actually expect a restaurant to put up a sign that says "closed due to poor management"?

              Businesses fail even in boom times.
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      • Profile picture of the author Chris Lockwood
        Originally Posted by espacecadet View Post

        OKay, explain how we are not in a recession to all of those who are losing their jobs...just because it does not fit the definition of a recession found in a dictionary does not mean we are not in one.

        Wow, that makes no sense. So you are saying words don't mean what they mean?

        Being in or not in a recession has nothing to do with the unemployment rate. BTW, the unemployment rate in the US is lower than in Europe.

        It's like trying to say that just because someone has a wife doesn't mean that he is married.
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  • I think we are heading for a long recession for two simple reasons. 1. People spend money like it is water an items that depretiate faster than icecream melts. 2. Most americans do not save enough money. These along with our goverment problems spells desaster.

    As internet marketers it will effect us put only in a positive way. As people in the future find out how we make money they will turn to the internet to do the same.

    Listen... here they come.
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