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Unread 20th Mar 2020, 07:57 AM   #251
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Re: Coronavirus? Not worthy of a mention here???
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Originally Posted by savidge4 View Post

Its not even a debate - IT WONT.
I would not bet money on that.

Originally Posted by Odahh View Post

So at one point do you think we will forcibly isolate anyone with the virus and quarentine every person they came in contact with.

And shoot dead anyone who doesn't go obey.

.
Yes I do.

No, of course not.

Originally Posted by Dan Riffle View Post

We, as society, don't have the stones to make the ultimate choice, that ultimate choice for the greater good. We live in a world where there's a firestorm of hate if a comedian uses a wrong word. Do you really think we have the stomach to make a choice like that? We can barely get teenagers off the beach.

You and I've talked about this before. I think our fathers could. Hard men can make hard choices. Us? Now? Too soft.
I think so too, but...I think it needs to happen now if we want to have any chance of controlling it. Lock it down, find the hot spots, lock them down tighter, get them in check and quarantine anyone they came into contact with.

give it a few weeks to make sure we got it right ...and then start unlocking the areas that aren't affected. Will it happen, I dunno, but I want it to happen and I feel like somehow that feeling is betraying just about everything my family believes in. Weird. I don't know if you're aware,but I'm not married anymore and wound up with a girlfriend, who appears to be an ostrich about everything happening around her. I'm starting to doubt were going to be together when this is over. Hows the little ankle biter?


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Unread 20th Mar 2020, 08:34 AM   #252
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From the New York Times...

New C.D.C. data shows that nearly 40 percent of patients sick enough to be hospitalized were age 20 to 54. But the risk of dying was significantly higher in older people.

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Unread 20th Mar 2020, 08:48 AM   #253
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I listened to a doctor yesterday explain that particular 'statistic' as 'totally misleading'. He said '20-54' is not a logical or useful parameter...should be divided into two groups. He said that was a result of quickly putting numbers out without waiting to find out WHAT numbers were needed.

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Unread 20th Mar 2020, 10:20 AM   #254
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Originally Posted by Kay King View Post

I listened to a doctor yesterday explain that particular 'statistic' as 'totally misleading'. He said '20-54' is not a logical or useful parameter...should be divided into two groups. He said that was a result of quickly putting numbers out without waiting to find out WHAT numbers were needed.
Here's what I got from the CDC site....

Cases..
As of March 16, a total of 4,226 COVID-19 cases had been reported in the United States, with reports increasing to 500 or more cases per day beginning March 14 (Figure 1). Among 2,449 patients with known age, 6% were aged ≥85, 25% were aged 65–84 years, 18% each were aged 55–64 years and 45–54 years, and 29% were aged 20–44 years (Figure 2). Only 5% of cases occurred in persons aged 0–19 years.


Hospitalized...
Among 508 (12%) patients known to have been hospitalized, 9% were aged ≥85 years, 26% were aged 65–84 years, 17% were aged 55–64 years, 18% were 45–54 years, and 20% were aged 20–44 years. Less than 1% of hospitalizations were among persons aged ≤19 years (Figure 2). The percentage of persons hospitalized increased with age, from 2%–3% among persons aged ≤9 years, to ≥31% among adults aged ≥85 years.

ICU stats....
Among 121 patients known to have been admitted to an ICU, 7% of cases were reported among adults ≥85 years, 46% among adults aged 65–84 years, 36% among adults aged 45–64 years, and 12% among adults aged 20–44 years (Figure 2). No ICU admissions were reported among persons aged ≤19 years. Percentages of ICU admissions were lowest among adults aged 20–44 years (2%–4%) and highest among adults aged 75–84 years (11%–31%) .


Deaths....
Among 44 cases with known outcome, 15 (34%) deaths were reported among adults aged ≥85 years, 20 (46%) among adults aged 65–84 years, and nine (20%) among adults aged 20–64 years. Case-fatality percentages increased with increasing age, from no deaths reported among persons aged ≤19 years to highest percentages (10%–27%) among adults aged ≥85 years .

I see what you mean now.

The 18% hospitalized from 45 to 54 only covers a nine year spread, and 20% are from 20 to 44 years old...a 24 year spread. You're right, it's misleading, although correct.

Maybe they use these ages because there are sudden shifts in results at specific ages.

For example, until you are about 45, your immune system hasn't started degrading much. That's a guess. Maybe at 45 there are sharp up tics in disease or heart attacks.

It doesn't make sense that the CDC would use these ages ranges for no reason.
It is strange to me that the number hospitalized actually goes down a little from ages 55-64.

After looking at the numbers here for several minutes, it becomes obvious that the virus affects pretty much everyone over 20 years old.....but 80% of the deaths coming after age 65.

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Unread 20th Mar 2020, 11:59 AM   #255
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Originally Posted by kenmichaels View Post

I think so too, but...I think it needs to happen now if we want to have any chance of controlling it. Lock it down, find the hot spots, lock them down tighter, get them in check and quarantine anyone they came into contact with.

give it a few weeks to make sure we got it right ...and then start unlocking the areas that aren't affected. Will it happen, I dunno, but I want it to happen and I feel like somehow that feeling is betraying just about everything my family believes in. Weird. I don't know if you're aware,but I'm not married anymore and wound up with a girlfriend, who appears to be an ostrich about everything happening around her. I'm starting to doubt were going to be together when this is over. Hows the little ankle biter?
I concur. Strong, decisive action is needed today. Compassion is needed tomorrow. I'd rather have fall out than failure.

The ankle biter is driving everyone CRAZY. He's soooooo cooped up. We try to get him outside, but he's used to going to preschool, the library, the park, etc. He's going nucking futs...and it's contagious.
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Unread 20th Mar 2020, 12:41 PM   #256
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Originally Posted by Dan Riffle View Post

but he's used to going to preschool, the library, the park, etc. .
Three places you are banned from.


Originally Posted by Dan Riffle View Post

I concur. Strong, decisive action is needed today. Compassion is needed tomorrow. I'd rather have fall out than failure.
Although it makes me gag, I agree. Make the hard choices now...make it law. And in a few weeks or a month or two, this will be controlled...and we can all joke about our stories.

Take control. We need tough love right now, not just love.

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Unread 20th Mar 2020, 12:47 PM   #257
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Originally Posted by Dan Riffle View Post

I concur. Strong, decisive action is needed today. Compassion is needed tomorrow. I'd rather have fall out than failure.

The ankle biter is driving everyone CRAZY. He's soooooo cooped up. We try to get him outside, but he's used to going to preschool, the library, the park, etc. He's going nucking futs...and it's contagious.

Just an idea or two. I have been where you are at - minus the virus of course. Take him fishing. Just you and him and a camera. He'll never forget it. Do you fish?


At his age a little fish cleaning won't bother him and if you cook a little teaching won't bother him either.


Give a hungry man a fish, you feed him for a day, but if you teach him how to fish, you feed him for a lifetime. Chinese Proverb, Lao Tsu.

In the minute it took me to write this post.. someone died of Covid 19. RIP.
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Unread 20th Mar 2020, 12:50 PM   #258
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Re: Coronavirus? Not worthy of a mention here???
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From the UK:

More evidence of "carrying on as usual". Not.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/coro...in-london.html

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced nationwide lockdown measures Friday, telling cafes, bars and restaurants to close.

“We are collectively telling cafes, pubs, bars and restaurants to close tonight as soon as they reasonably can and not to open tomorrow,” Johnson said at a daily briefing on the coronavirus.

He said takeout services for these businesses would be able to continue.

“We are also telling nightclubs, theaters, cinemas, gyms and leisure centers to close on the same timescale.”

“These are places where people come together, and indeed the whole purpose of these businesses in many cases is to bring people together. But, the sad thing is, I’m afraid today, for now at least, physically we need to keep people apart,” Johnson said.

A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in - Greek proverb
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Unread 20th Mar 2020, 12:55 PM   #259
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Originally Posted by Jeffery View Post

Just an idea or two. I have been where you are at - minus the virus of course. Take him fishing. Just you and him and a camera. He'll never forget it. Do you fish?


At his age a little fish cleaning won't bother him and if you cook a little teaching won't bother him either.


Give a hungry man a fish, you feed him for a day, but if you teach him how to fish, you feed him for a lifetime. Chinese Proverb, Lao Tsu.

Hmmm. That's not a bad idea. I just might.

We were going "bear hunting" in the park. Not "bear hunting" where you walk into the woods with a roll of Charmin. There's a wooded trail by a playground that my son is convinced is full of bears (Dad may or may not have encouraged this).

We were walking the trail, but the wife and I decided playgrounds are off limits, so that trail is off limits as it would be cruel to take him to the playground, but not let him play.

As soon as I finish this post, we're going outside for t-ball practice. While his season was canceled, Dad is running practice in the backyard.
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Unread 20th Mar 2020, 02:59 PM   #260
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Originally Posted by Dan Riffle View Post

Hmmm. That's not a bad idea. I just might.

We were going "bear hunting" in the park. Not "bear hunting" where you walk into the woods with a roll of Charmin. There's a wooded trail by a playground that my son is convinced is full of bears (Dad may or may not have encouraged this).

We were walking the trail, but the wife and I decided playgrounds are off limits, so that trail is off limits as it would be cruel to take him to the playground, but not yet him play.

As soon as I finish this post, we're going outside for t-ball practice. While his season was canceled, Dad is running practice in the backyard.
It all seems a lot of effort if chloroform is available. I am sending you a Copy of Claude's as yet unfinished biography., An excellent sleep aid to read to him.

Did I miss any comments that the trend is to close down non essential businesses. in some States?

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Unread 20th Mar 2020, 03:33 PM   #261
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This is a strange set of photos - when will you ever see Las Vegas...shut down?

https://www.dailynews.com/2020/03/18...ambling-mecca/

I think we see so much of this in the news we feel like it's going on and on and on - but it's only this week that many US states have gotten serious about shutting down places people gather.

Found an interesting US state by state comparison today at link below
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/...213356419.html

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Unread 20th Mar 2020, 06:01 PM   #262
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Originally Posted by tagiscom View Post

I know, but is putting the world into a recession necessary?
Lets break this away for a moment.. we ARE NOT in a recession.. we are in a period of time that people OVER REACTED. ALL because some companies came out and said they were going to fall short on Q1 numbers - NO DUH. At this point that is unilateral across the board - no winners no losers.

The REAL losers right now are people that pulled from the market ( for no reason ) and will realize later they will be hit with a 37% ( assuming the asset hold is less than 1 yr ) capitol gains tax.

The question really becomes WHY are all these people selling? ( Im BUYING for what its worth ) Like Apple and Amazon and Tesla wont be back where they were a month ago in a few months?

THIS is all self imposed stupid ness. UNLIKE 2008 when they were variables at play because of STUPID at a whole other level... this is not present right now. This is simply knee jerk that ultimately is delaying the REAL recession to come. The only failing that will occur with this is med stocks.. and the reality is so much money is going to be dumped into the system by the end of this - calculating the bottom and getting in is something worth looking at.

Oh but people don't have money they aren't working... Banks and Financial institutions and utility companies etc etc etc are in the exact same boat... For any of these institutions to clamp down in the near future for non payment - THIS would be the cause of a recession - assuming physical asset over the paper asset... a gluttony of Houses or cars or utility unpaid bill debt.

Again in this scenario ALL things are equal - NO ONE is making anything - which in turn means there is little to nothing to gain - so not having income for 50% of Americans for 2 months will be considered a wash, and life will reset from that point. You wont have a 30 year mortgage - you will have a 30 year + 2 month mortgage.

I cant wait to see the first STUPID organization as this finds it way behind us that tries to get cute and take or cut or whatever... They will create a self imposed isolated recession within their micro environment.

Unlike anything We have ever been a part of /experienced... this is equal across all aspects... From the top down to the very bottom. We are / will ALL be in lack vs organizations that took advantage and or those that made poor choices. THIS is not a choice - this is a UNIVERSAL occurence, How it plays out for me In WV will be the same for someone in CA. How it plays out for someone with $100,000 in the bank will be the same for someone with $10 in the bank ( financially / not lifestyle )

THIS is simply NOT a recession by no stretch of the definition or by past examples there of.

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Unread 20th Mar 2020, 06:49 PM   #263
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Originally Posted by savidge4 View Post

Lets break this away for a momen

Unlike anything We have ever been a part of /experienced... this is equal across all aspects... From the top down to the very bottom. We are / will ALL be in lack vs organizations that took advantage and or those that made poor choices. THIS is not a choice - this is a UNIVERSAL occurence, How it plays out for me In WV will be the same for someone in CA. How it plays out for someone with $100,000 in the bank will be the same for someone with $10 in the bank ( financially / not lifestyle )

THIS is simply NOT a recession by no stretch of the definition or by past examples there of.
never has most of the world shut down at the same time ..basically turning off most of the world economy ..is different from a crash or recession..i think the shut dow is warrented to slow the spread and prepare .

the losers are the people who will be looking at 20 bottles of hand sanitizer and wondering where to put the 5 years worth of toilet paper .

the winners in this preppers ..for a a time after this there will be a lot more people turning to prepping or having a supply of food on hand and not days at most ..if they have storage space .

in any case many thing will transform after this .. and because of this ..
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Unread 20th Mar 2020, 07:00 PM   #264
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We are heading into a recession. Small businesses (less than 500 employees) employ almost half of the (US) workforce. They have cash on hand to last an average of 45 days. These are the companies which will be affected most by social distancing mandates, as nonessential spending makes up about 39% of the U.S. economy.

According to economists the coronavirus toll on the economy is expected to create an impact resulting in as much as a 2.5% downturn for the next two quarters then a slow recovery in the second half of the year. Economists don't expect a full recovery until 2021. Many small businesses (perhaps as much as 40%) will not survive.

The stats may be similar or worse in other countries.

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Unread 20th Mar 2020, 07:51 PM   #265
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Sign in Costco - "not accept returns of the following products: toilet paper, lysol, hand sanitizers, paper towels and a couple other things.


Basically for those who rushed to take everything they good hoping to resell at a profit - you spent the money - you use the Toilet Paper....guess some were stuck with a garage full of supplies after ebay, amazon and other sites shut down price gouging sales.... gotta love it


The REAL losers right now are people that pulled from the market ( for no reason ) and will realize later they will be hit with a 37% ( assuming the asset hold is less than 1 yr ) capitol gains tax.

The question really becomes WHY are all these people selling? ( Im BUYING for what its worth ) Like Apple and Amazon and Tesla wont be back where they were a month ago in a few months?

It's possible quite a few sold because they need the money - but I agree. Most just sold out of fear. Some people never get the concept of buy low, sell high. They buy and sell willy nilly and call themselves 'investors'.


In a nearby city the CITY is buying 'gift cards' at small businesses that are closed for now. This provides income to pay bills for the business owners...and the plan is to sell the gift cards to the public as things improve. It's a pretty neat small city and what has happened is citizens are calling and offering to buy those gifts cards now from the city - so the city can buy more. It's that kind of innovation that amazes me.


Dan - how old is your rug rat? If you have the supplies/space, think 'fort' or clubhouse or a ramp for his wheeled thingie. At least it will be warming soon, then we have hoses and kiddie pools, mini-gardens and more things to wear them out.

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Unread 20th Mar 2020, 08:11 PM   #266
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Originally Posted by myob View Post

We are heading into a recession. Small businesses (less than 500 employees) employ almost half of the (US) workforce. They have cash on hand to last an average of 45 days. These are the companies which will be affected most by social distancing mandates, as nonessential spending makes up about 39% of the U.S. economy.

According to economists the coronavirus toll on the economy is expected to create an impact resulting in as much as a 2.5% downturn for the next two quarters then a slow recovery in the second half of the year. Economists don't expect a full recovery until 2021. Many small businesses (perhaps as much as 40%) will not survive.

The stats may be similar or worse in other countries.
I have seen 2 as in TWO models that include the variable of not having to pay rent or mortgage or vehicle payments or Utility bills - and the reality is that is where we are at. So the question is then asked in say 45 days, They ( the business' that were closed as "non-essential" ) re-open... Where is the negative financial impact?

Think this through for Sally that owns a hair salon - what exactly is the negative impact of closing today Friday - met payroll ( time warp 45 days from now ) and then starting Monday start back up. Water electric and Gas bills will obviously be minimal ( they weren't used ) All business related expenses will be "extended". what is the negative impact here? Employee pay? and any smart business owner right now is placing all of its employees on temporary unemployment OR they have the cash reserves to pay for them. Again.. the negative impact here is?

Again like any other instance in probably human history.. the entire system is being placed on hold.. there will be a window of <insert example> of 45 days that will in effect never have happened. Closed shop Friday and re-opened 45 days later on Monday.

The FEAR is injected by trying to compare this to 2008 or 2000 1990's 1980's 1970's... this is no where near the same - on any level

Will there be "Failures"? sure there will... the weak and stupid will be dropped like bad habits... this is just speeding that process up and creating an environment where the ability to string it along for a period is simply removed. Any business that "Fails" as the result of coronavirus and the current state of being in this country was already on their way out, and this just cemented the demise.

Call me an optimist or whatever you like.. call me stupid if you like.. im just not seeing how and where there is a negative at play here other than self induced negative / stupid

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Unread 20th Mar 2020, 08:19 PM   #267
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I had a supplier of air purifiers that also sold on E-Bay.

Two weeks ago, I bought a dozen for $84 each. I called today, and he refused to sell to me for less than $839 each, because the wholesaler is selling them for that on E-Bay.

Strange times.

Are we going into a recession? I don't know. I'm more worried about dying right now, because some fool sneezes on me.

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Unread 20th Mar 2020, 08:40 PM   #268
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Originally Posted by Claude Whitacre View Post

Two weeks ago, I bought a dozen for $84 each. I called today, and he refused to sell to me for less than $839 each, because the wholesaler is selling them for that on E-Bay.
The wholesaler / retailor relationship is ever so slowly ( not really ) evaporating. More and more the wholesalers are figuring out they can be selling direct to consumer. Platforms like eBay and Amazon are literally taking out the middle man. The whole "Drop-shipping" phenom is literally educating Wholesalers.

It is my thinking at this point in the game - IF you are not making, you will not make it. The internet has literally removed all of the distance between a manufacturer and the consumer

I think that the current environment is going to greatly speed the pace of erosion. The whole concept of "Uber" services just 1 month ago was maybe a step beyond Novel... and will now and for ever be common place.

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Unread 20th Mar 2020, 08:56 PM   #269
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Originally Posted by savidge4 View Post

The FEAR is injected by trying to compare this to 2008 or 2000 1990's 1980's 1970's... this is no where near the same - on any level
Some economists are comparing this sudden drop in the stock market to 1931.

Despite social distancing mandates, the virus toll continues to mount.

There will will much more such mandates not only in the US, but worldwide.

An effective vaccine to control this virus is many months, or perhaps even a year away.

I'm really not a pessimist, but the numbers on all levels are unprecedented.

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Unread 20th Mar 2020, 09:13 PM   #270
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Originally Posted by Kay King View Post

Dan - how old is your rug rat? If you have the supplies/space, think 'fort' or clubhouse or a ramp for his wheeled thingie. At least it will be warming soon, then we have hoses and kiddie pools, mini-gardens and more things to wear them out.
He turned 4 less than a month ago. Tonight he told my wife that being a kid is boring because he can't help anybody fix things.

We're scrounging up things for him to do. I think I'm going to let him help me hang some pictures and run some cat7 through the house.
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Unread 20th Mar 2020, 09:37 PM   #271
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Re: Coronavirus? Not worthy of a mention here???
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Originally Posted by myob View Post

Some economists are comparing this sudden drop in the stock market to 1931.
I get what you are saying... yes very much 1929 ( 1931 market drop ) but keep in mind the "Drop" was caused by a litany of variables ( Conforming to International Gold Standard, Money Supply, and drop in consumer demand ) that lead to "Depression". Cause and Effect.

In this current scenario YES unemployment will rise - BUT they will directly be re-employed in the given example of 45 days. This body of people unlike THEN ( 1931 ) have the luxury of "Govt Funded" Unemployment payments. So unemployed in 1931 is NOT equal to un-employed today. Un-employed today does not mean "No Income"

- unless you happen to be self employed and then as I have preached quietly for years here about building a level of liquid asset to carry for an amount of time greater than next month - where exactly does the responsibility fall?

( watching the debate on how to disperse the $1000 checks is concerning to me - the majority of those that will actually need the "help" will be those outside of the "un-employment" umbrella - and your average politician I don't think understands that - They are playing a game of constituent rallying and not actually helping those that will fall through the cracks )

Really want to get interesting with this... the Stock market is falling right? If it is indeed falling ( and it is ) that means by the stats I am looking at, there is in excess of $1.7 TRILLION dollars in liquid assets within the private sector eco-system right now. Recession or liquid AF?

Make this real interesting and the US govt is going to inject? $850 BILLION? is that what the headlines say? ONE HALF of what the private sector has the ability to injected into our economy.

Lets bring this down to something a bit more tangible... 4 Politicians ( that should have known better ) sold off in excess of $10 Million in stock 2 weeks ago. FOUR people with TEN MILLION DOLLARS in liquid cash. how exactly is there a problem?

Like I said earlier those that will fail coming out of this were going to fail regardless of this or not, This has simply sped up the inevitable in all instances and the 45 days is a worm hole of time ( some may have been 3 months from now, and others 2 yrs from now ) will bring all of those shortcomings to a head 45 days later on Monday morning.

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Unread 20th Mar 2020, 09:50 PM   #272
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Re: Coronavirus? A Gateway To Great Memories!
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Originally Posted by Dan Riffle View Post

He turned 4 less than a month ago. Tonight he told my wife that being a kid is boring because he can't help anybody fix things.

We're scrounging up things for him to do. I think I'm going to let him help me hang some pictures and run some cat7 through the house.
Have you gotten into Legos yet? You might want to d-load the Lego app on a phone or tablet and start in with the build challenges etc and introduce him to "Social Media". Kids LOVE the Lego App. you take photos of your creations and share with a super supportive community

a 2x4 and a hammer and some nails. having him there and cut out a shape that hopefully resembles a car out of plywood and looking for lids in the house you can use push pins for wheels.

Go and buy a couple of cardboard boxes ( All indicators suggest the virus only lives on cardboard for about 4 hours so quarantine it for the evening ) and make a house / fort.

READ to him. I started reading Tom Sawyer to my boy when he was about 4 - enter cardboard boxes and build a raft to sit in while reading ( after you reach that part )

MUSIC: https://www.commonsensemedia.org/lis...games-for-kids

From one father to another... both you and your son will look back on the next weeks / months? as the best time of your life! just be in the moment - Your not passing time, you are creating Memories.

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Unread 20th Mar 2020, 11:04 PM   #273
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I finally remembered to look this up... Why the United States had military troops in Wuhan China in October 2019.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Military_World_Games

And then seeing we ( The USA ) won a total of 3 Silver and 5 Bronze medals and placing 35th overall might suggest the reason I didn't know the answer - or anyone else I know.

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Unread 20th Mar 2020, 11:52 PM   #274
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Originally Posted by savidge4 View Post

I finally remembered to look this up... Why the United States had military troops in Wuhan China in October 2019.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Military_World_Games

And then seeing we ( The USA ) won a total of 3 Silver and 5 Bronze medals and placing 35th overall might suggest the reason I didn't know the answer - or anyone else I know.
over the last ten to fifteen years fracking has turned the US into the largest producer of oil and kept oil prices low .. now many operations shut down this last week because of the price war . but can be started back up again

with the way china has handeled this ..and now many in china are looking to take advantage of the rest of the world shutting down ..

this will be the catalyst to re-industrialize the USA .. bring manufacturing back to the US .especially with as advanced as robotics and automation is now . and how fast it is improving .

after the virus is taken care of .. i see a push for some economic punishment of china or economic warfare .
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Unread 21st Mar 2020, 02:14 AM   #275
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Originally Posted by Odahh View Post

over the last ten to fifteen years fracking has turned the US into the largest producer of oil and kept oil prices low .. now many operations shut down this last week because of the price war . but can be started back up again

with the way china has handeled this ..and now many in china are looking to take advantage of the rest of the world shutting down ..

this will be the catalyst to re-industrialize the USA .. bring manufacturing back to the US .especially with as advanced as robotics and automation is now . and how fast it is improving .

after the virus is taken care of .. i see a push for some economic punishment of china or economic warfare .
There has been the hint by key politicians to this effect - that we have become open market dependent, and it is in effect our greatest weakness. I envision something along the lines of an "America's block"; North, Central, and South America neutralizing a lot of the minor to major issues in the region and then industrializing the entire region.

We ( the United States ) have lost the ideals of "winning hearts and minds" - and this is where China is currently excelling, and in the short run this will hurt - but I don't see it lasting long.

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Unread 21st Mar 2020, 05:36 AM   #276
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Originally Posted by savidge4 View Post


We ( the United States ) have lost the ideals of "winning hearts and minds" - and this is where China is currently excelling, and in the short run this will hurt - but I don't see it lasting long.
we had the hearts and mind after ww2 and during the cold war .. we mistakenly believed that capitalism would cause china to turn more democratic .. instead china built authoritarian capitalism .

the critical part of the new wave of industrialization based on automation ,robotics and AI . is that many more thing will not even have to be manufactured until a customer buys the thing. so moving production at least to the country where they buyers are is important ..and the manufacturer captures all the profit..

i keep seeing add for the clothing company that say take a picture of yourself with your cellphone and we can perfectly make cloths for you .. i bet they have sewbot or some other automated tailoring system .. you know with your study of green and the business you are building .. you can almost not even start growing some things untill a customer buys it .

demand creates supply .

which is what we are going to see as the country creates more icu beds in a short time .. produces more ventilators . and gets what ever drugs we find to fight this thing into mass production in a few days .
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Unread 21st Mar 2020, 05:48 AM   #277
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It's fashionable right now to compare what is happening with 'The Great Depression' - same thing was done by "journalists" (a/k/a talking heads) in 2008-9.

There is a big difference now - the potential for online income - AND the governments focus on helping small business and PEOPLE...rather than on huge bailouts only.


I think this will be a time of new innovations for some countries like the US and a hard recovery for other countries. We've known for 10 years that we are at risk by outsourcing so much to China - the experts have been waving flags and until the recent past, it's been ignored.

The theory that American won't pay higher prices when things are cheaper from China is a lie we've been told. We aren't paying cheaper prices for meds though so many of them come (cheaply) from China. We don't need sub-standard plastic toys, dog chews that kill our dogs, tainted products that so often have come from China. We need to rethink, re-plan and re-execute those plans. I think we can do that....whether we will follow through remains to be seen.

Meanwhile - not everyone is out of work. I've never seen such a response from lenders, from city/state/fed governments - from people helping people.Hourly workers have been hurt the most - and tipped workers - but companies like Amazon and Walmart are hiring over 250,000 people to fill oneline orders. OUR local groceries are hiring to fill pickup and delivery orders. Many of these are temp jobs but they are JOBS.

Doom and gloom doesn't help - we will get through this because it's the only option we have. Some people will handle it well - some won't.

Remember all those times when you wished the weekend would last forever? Well, wish granted. Happy now?
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Unread 21st Mar 2020, 06:09 AM   #278
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Originally Posted by Kay King View Post

It's fashionable right now to compare what is happening with 'The Great Depression' - same thing was done by "journalists" (a/k/a talking heads) in 2008-9.

There is a big differetn now - the potential for online income - AND the governments focus on helping small business and PEOPLE...rather than on huge bailouts only.


I think this will be a time of new innovations for some countries like the US and a hard recovery for other countries. We've known for 10 years that we are at risk by outsourcing so much to China - the experts have been waving flags and until the recent past, it's been ignored.

The theory that American won't pay higher prices when things are cheaper from China is a lie we've been told. We aren't paying cheaper prices for meds though so many of them come (cheaply) from China. We don't need sub-standard plastic toys, dog chews that kill our dogs, tainted products that so often have come from China. We need to rethink, re-plan and re-execute those plans. I think we can do that....whether we will follow through remains to be seen.

Meanwhile - not everyone is out of work. I've never seen such a response from lenders, from city/state/fed governments - from people helping people.Hourly workers have been hurt the most - and tipped workers - but companies like Amazon and Walmart are hiring over 250,000 people to fill oneline orders. OUR local groceries are hiring to fill pickup and delivery orders. Many of these are temp jobs but they are JOBS.

Doom and gloom doesn't help - we will get through this because it's the only option we have. Some people will handle it well - some won't.
Hear, hear!

In the minute it took me to write this post.. someone died of Covid 19. RIP.
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Unread 21st Mar 2020, 06:47 AM   #279
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Key ,

Well said. This hasn't happened before .shut down 25 percent of the economy one week dump a few trillion into the economy in the month after

People are not not spending money because of fear .they are not spending money because they can't go out and spend money.
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Unread 21st Mar 2020, 03:18 PM   #280
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A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in - Greek proverb
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Unread 21st Mar 2020, 03:51 PM   #281
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I'm big on doing what I've been doing the past decade; blog, ignore news cycles, new cycle begins as the virus moves on, and my blogging foundation becomes even stronger. For me, sticking to evergreen fundamentals and giving no attention and energy to topical subjects helps me glide to everything. Long term approach.

If anything, this will goad more folks to work online, from home. More potential for all of us.

Ryan

Ryan Biddulph inspires you to be a successful blogger with his courses, 100 plus eBooks, audio books and blog at Blogging From Paradise
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Unread 21st Mar 2020, 04:52 PM   #282
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My prediction:

"Social distancing" will be the Word Of The Year for 2020.

A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in - Greek proverb
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Unread 21st Mar 2020, 06:52 PM   #283
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Originally Posted by savidge4 View Post

Like I said earlier those that will fail coming out of this were going to fail regardless of this or not, This has simply sped up the inevitable in all instances and the 45 days is a worm hole of time ( some may have been 3 months from now, and others 2 yrs from now ) will bring all of those shortcomings to a head 45 days later on Monday morning.
Agreed. However, you seem to be missing the significance of the "45 day" reference. As I said, small businesses have cash to last an average of 45 days, based on business reports I read. Realistically, one can't expect these businesses to exhaust all their cash reserves before deciding to bail out. Many have already quit and business shuttering and closings are accelerating right now.

The coronovirus is not going to stop at 45 days. The effects of "social distancing" will be devastating for small businesses which do not have the reserves to weather what may be several months (not weeks) as activity is moving away from shopping malls toward household necessities and online purchases.

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Unread 21st Mar 2020, 07:26 PM   #284
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Originally Posted by myob View Post

Agreed. However, you seem to be missing the significance of the "45 day" reference. As I said, small businesses have cash to last an average of 45 days, based on business reports I read. Realistically, one can't expect these businesses to exhaust all their cash reserves before deciding to bail out. Many have already quit and business closings are accelerating right now.
But ask why? I leased 5 vehicles for my business early last week. I have already been called by my lease company deferring payments for 120 days. I have 3 properties with "loans" ( they are in the construction phase ) and the banks have reached out and told me that I can defer the payments as needed.

As a "Landlord" I am waiving rent for the next 2 months - the Business' that rent from me have no customers - and obviously no cash in means no cash out. I get it.. everyone gets it - and at this point its illegal in most states to kick anyone for non payment. If you rent in a mall and the mall shuts down, do you think the mall is going to charge rent? I don't think so.


So HOW exactly is business effected? they close the doors today, and re-open in 45 days or when ever... and business continues like closing on Friday and opening back up on the following Monday ( except there is a 45 day worm hole in the middle )

What we are seeing is an opportunity... an excuse... to closing the doors. It should literally cost nothing to place a business on hold for 45 days at this point. so how exactly is this a financial burden? ITS NOT - A couple of phone calls and I could have every bill my business has right now, deferred on a month to month basis.

Whoa is me the sky is falling is the opportunity, the excuse, the open door to BAIL out and have the ability to blame something or someone "Because of the Corona Virus I had to shut down" they will say - and I say BS

Originally Posted by myob View Post

The coronovirus is not going to stop at 45 days. The effects of "social distancing" will be devastating for small businesses which do not have the reserves to weather what may be several months (not weeks) as activity is moving away from shopping malls toward household necessities and online purchases.
And as I keep saying there is no need for "Reserves" when financially you can literally place your business on HOLD.

Im not saying this stuff from a this is what I believe point of view.. this is ME a small business owner that works with MANY other small business owners, speaking from a perspective of BOTH sides of this... one that gets paid by business' and one that is a business.

I have clients that have shut their doors - Beauty Salons, and Nail Techs, and construction firms and dentist offices, and all kinds of business'. Each and everyone has been on the phone with me in regards to placing a hold on our services - Yeah of course, and then there are those that are still operating - Restaurants, and car repair places and pharmacies and plumbers and whoever else that are ramping up their digital outreach to raise that flag that they are there to serve.

Some obviously will be better off than they were 45 days later ( maybe ) and the ones that have closed will re-open like nothing ever happened.

***** Added *****
Im really not saying this stuff to be argumentative... I just think we are in the middle of this new experience, and media and studies and this and that are trying to compare what is going on to other things that simply do not have anything in common to what is going on.

IF you specifically ( open ended not directed at anyone ) are feeling financially scared... if you have a mortgage or a car payment... understand you can call either or both institutions on Monday morning and defer this months / next months payment with No Penalty. As this moves forward as I am to understand correctly they will defer MORE payments. ( based on personal conversations with banking and financial institutions ). Remove the stress from your life... give yourself a bit of a cushion... and take this day by day.. we ALL will get through this.

I don't rent anything, but being a Renter.. if you rent your house or apartment call your landlord or property management company, and see what your options are.

In all three cases they are not going to take your car or your house or your apartment. ( its literally against the law for them to do so right now ) I would suggest communicating directly rather than just not paying. The system has already been set in place as a safety net.. by all means use it if you need it.

I get it, these are trying times for many... and a few simple phone calls can make this a whole lot easier.

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Unread 22nd Mar 2020, 12:58 AM   #285
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Originally Posted by myob View Post

The reality is a vaccine is at best 12-18 months away.
Down Under we have 2 medications already approved for human use that are effective in treating C19 and are promising to offer a cure and I believe are already in test mode here.

Fingers crossed they get this sorted sooner rather than later.

https://www.uq.edu.au/news/article/2...irus-treatment

| > Choosing to go off the grid for a while to focus on family, work and life in general. Have a great 2020 < |
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Unread 22nd Mar 2020, 02:12 AM   #286
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StarTalk Podcast: Understanding the Coronavirus (COVID-19)
Mar 19, 2020


In the minute it took me to write this post.. someone died of Covid 19. RIP.
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Unread 22nd Mar 2020, 02:48 AM   #287
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Do you think that some supplements and vitamins can help you be stronger against corona? I think it is good for your immunity... I also like to take some CBD oil, and I believe it makes me healthier. I wonder if it helps with it

Last edited on 28th Mar 2020 at 04:57 AM.
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Unread 22nd Mar 2020, 04:02 AM   #288
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Originally Posted by trevordd View Post

Do you think that some supplements and vitamins can help you be stronger against corona?
Highly unlikely given that most of them are snake oil to begin with.

A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in - Greek proverb
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Unread 22nd Mar 2020, 05:37 AM   #289
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Originally Posted by trevordd View Post

Do you think that some supplements and vitamins can help you be stronger against corona? I think it is good for your immunity...
Originally Posted by whateverpedia View Post

Highly unlikely given that most of them are snake oil to begin with.

The experts all say humans are not immune to the virus and though I do not know the number of infected people having a strong constitution before they were infected I am confident that there are more than a few and I have not heard even a hint from the experts about vitamins which makes me think that if vitamins were beneficial the experts would have said something.


My family takes One A Day anyway and have done so for years. BTW, I hope vitamins can't hurt.

In the minute it took me to write this post.. someone died of Covid 19. RIP.
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Unread 22nd Mar 2020, 05:40 AM   #290
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Originally Posted by Jeffery View Post

BTW, vitamins can't hurt.
To be sure, they won't do any harm, but the question is will they do any good?

I don't know, I'm not a doctor.

A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in - Greek proverb
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Unread 22nd Mar 2020, 07:17 AM   #291
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Originally Posted by whateverpedia View Post

To be sure, they won't do any harm, but the question is will they do any good?

I don't know, I'm not a doctor.

We both are not doctors, but we we both are darn ugly and I read on the internet that the virus is only targeting pretty people, so we're good.

In the minute it took me to write this post.. someone died of Covid 19. RIP.
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Unread 22nd Mar 2020, 10:04 AM   #292
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Originally Posted by Jeffery View Post

We both are not doctors, but we we both are darn ugly and I read on the internet that the virus is only targeting pretty people, so we're good.
There are no supplements that keep you from getting a virus. Viruses bypass your immune system. It's why we need to be vaccinated. Our bodies haven't produced the anti-bodies to fight the specific virus.

Maybe they can help with nutritional deficiencies that would make the virus more deadly.

There is some anecdotal evidence that if you have been treated for Malaria, it may make you at least partially immune to the coronavirus...because few people in Africa are getting it. It's an ongoing study.

I was wondering about exercise helping. I would assume that regular exercise that gives you greater general health, might be partially effecting against any viral attack. But like you guys, I'm not a doctor.

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Unread 22nd Mar 2020, 10:12 AM   #293
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Originally Posted by savidge4 View Post

As a "Landlord" I am waiving rent for the next 2 months - the Business' that rent from me have no customers - and obviously no cash in means no cash out. I get it.. everyone gets it - and at this point its illegal in most states to kick anyone for non payment. If you rent in a mall and the mall shuts down, do you think the mall is going to charge rent? I don't think so.


So HOW exactly is business effected? they close the doors today, and re-open in 45 days or when ever... and business continues like closing on Friday and opening back up on the following Monday ( except there is a 45 day worm hole in the middle )

What we are seeing is an opportunity... an excuse... to closing the doors. It should literally cost nothing to place a business on hold for 45 days at this point. so how exactly is this a financial burden? ITS NOT - A couple of phone calls and I could have every bill my business has right now, deferred on a month to month basis.
Possibly the most useful post on this pandemic yet.

Frankly, it never occurred to me to stop paying my store rent or utilities. I'll contact the building owner. We have reserves, but was hoping to not exhaust them.

The only people that don't seem to be playing ball are our suppliers. I can simply not pay them for a short time, but even if they go along with it, they won't ship, until the bills are paid. An understandable position.

But just get by paying utilities and home expenses (like food), we could last several months...and then just open our doors again, like it was Monday.

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Unread 22nd Mar 2020, 10:38 AM   #294
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Re: Coronavirus? Not worthy of a mention here???
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Originally Posted by Claude Whitacre View Post

There is some anecdotal evidence that if you have been treated for Malaria, it may make you at least partially immune to the coronavirus...because few people in Africa are getting it. It's an ongoing study.
Refer to this post above: https://www.warriorforum.com/off-top...l#post11585591

Australian researchers are set to begin clinical trials of a potential treatment for COVID-19 – using two existing drugs.

University of Queensland Centre for Clinical Research Director and Consultant Infectious Diseases Physician at the Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital (RBWH) Professor David Paterson said the drugs proved highly effective when first used against the virus in test tubes.

“We’re now ready to begin patient trials with the drugs, one of which is an HIV medication and the other an anti-malaria drug,” Professor Paterson said.
They're about to start testing on 3 scenarios:
1) Using the HIV drug
2) Using the anti-malaria drug
3) Using both

The beauty of this is that both drugs have already been tested and found to be safe so there's no need to go through the lengthy process of getting them approved by the relevant authorities.

Once tested against coronavirus and found to be effective, mass production of whichever drug(s) can begin pretty much immediately. I'd imagine that most, if not all, developed countries would already have supplies of these drugs "in stock" as well.

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Unread 22nd Mar 2020, 11:03 AM   #295
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Re: Coronavirus? Not worthy of a mention here???
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The plus is they don't need a 'cure' - eventually there will be a vaccine but that's at least months into the future.


What we need is a drug or combination of drugs 'ready to go' that stops this coronavirus from progressing from 'flu symptoms' to 'acute respiratory distress'. May be drugs that treat inflammation or asthma or ??? could provide a bridge to reduce the life threatening aspect till a vaccine can be produced.

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Unread 22nd Mar 2020, 11:18 AM   #296
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Re: Coronavirus? Not worthy of a mention here???
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Originally Posted by whateverpedia View Post

The beauty of this is that both drugs have already been tested and found to be safe so there's no need to go through the lengthy process of getting them approved by the relevant authorities.
This sounds reasonable... because I am only familiar with the process in the United States.. I can say HERE it decreases the process, but doesn't eliminate it. Technically we are talking from 10 yrs+ to deploy a "New" medication to 5 yrs+ for deploying an existing medicine with an alternate purpose IE an HIV drug that would be used as a drug to fight the Corona Virus.

If you really pay attention to the news there are actually 2 known ( reported in the news) Vaccines for Corona. One is from a lab in Germany, and the other is Canada. The one in Germany is the one that Trump was trying to buy exclusively for the American people.

Also in the middle of this as we have now created a Corona test that will produce results in 1 hour vs 3 to 5 days and they have been running IBM's Watson and Summit through its paces to find drug elements that would be effective in fighting Corona: https://www.8newsnow.com/news/the-wo...rom-spreading/

Keep in mind this article was written based on the results of early Corona Virus modelling ( from China ) and I believe I have seen they are re-running the model with a new more accurate Corona profile model.

This very well may be the first instance in human history ( that I can think of ) that AI will actually provide a "Solution" vs modeling that predicts an outcome for something of this type of scale. ( Yes I understand AI provides answers LOL )

There are currently labs in the States that are paying $4500 to be injected with the virus so they can test these new medicines ( this indicates there are possible meds already - and past the in the works stages of development ) so the idea that 12 to 18 month may be the case in the end... but that will be because of FDA red tape above and beyond anything else.

A vaccine and a cure are in the works - only if cancer were so easy.

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Unread 22nd Mar 2020, 03:33 PM   #297
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Re: Coronavirus? Not worthy of a mention here???
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While a vaccine against the virus is already being tested in the US, experts say it will take at least 12 to 18 months to determine whether it works and to ensure it carries no dangerous side effects. There is some cautious optimism, because viruses can evolve into more elusive strains.

Much like polio, for which children are still universally vaccinated, the coronavirus is expected to remain in the general population for years before mass vaccinations or natural immunities will eliminate its dangers.

A short-term best hope I've been hearing is the development of new treatment methods that would keep coronavirus patients from developing deadly complications, like pneumonia. Several drugs are already being tested.

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the National Institutes of Health are funding scientists in the field of synthetic biology. The emerging field of synthetic biology is aiming to engineer vaccines that overcome obstacles of becoming obsolete if the virus evolves.

https://www.globalresearch.ca/corona...dation/5706842

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Unread 22nd Mar 2020, 04:22 PM   #298
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Re: Coronavirus? Not worthy of a mention here???
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Originally Posted by myob View Post

While a vaccine against the virus is already being tested in the US, experts say it will take at least 12 to 18 months to determine whether it works and to ensure it carries no dangerous side effects. There is some cautious optimism, because viruses can evolve into more elusive strains.

Much like polio, for which children are still universally vaccinated, the coronavirus is expected to remain in the general population for years before mass vaccinations or natural immunities will eliminate its dangers.

A short-term best hope I've been hearing is the development of new treatment methods that would keep coronavirus patients from developing deadly complications, like pneumonia. Several drugs are already being tested.

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the National Institutes of Health are funding scientists in the field of synthetic biology. The emerging field of synthetic biology is aiming to engineer vaccines that overcome obstacles of becoming obsolete if the virus evolves.

https://www.globalresearch.ca/corona...dation/5706842
The most important thing is to get something to stop the deadly complications that can kill. Vaccinations are only 60 percent effective. With a vaccination in place for the flu it still kills 235k a year. The article earlier suggested that the few they tested with these drugs prevented the complications and killed the virus so no more infection from that person. That would be the thing to concentrate on for now.

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Unread 22nd Mar 2020, 04:31 PM   #299
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Re: Coronavirus? A Gateway To Great Memories!
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Originally Posted by savidge4 View Post

I forgot to add this: https://musiclab.chromeexperiments.com/Experiments its actually pretty cool by itself. I / We use it to create little loops to throw into videos for background music all the time. its really fun to play with.

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Unread 22nd Mar 2020, 04:55 PM   #300
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Re: Coronavirus? Not worthy of a mention here???
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The anti maleria drug has proven effective now the testing is looking for dosage and frequency .the problem is it has been out of production like twenty years .

By evoking the war powers of production a few days ago .or whatever it is called and streamline the FDA approval process once a dosage is decided .whoever has the ability to manufacture it in the us will be pressed toake billions of doses.

Vatimens minerrals or or athing that boosts your immune system will just effect how sick you get .and you might be a few months late .

Getting 8 hours sleep ,light physical activity,lowering stress .getting a good laugh often during the day. And many other immune system boosting stuff. Natural fresh food or frozen veggies are better than anything you can get from a bottle right now.off the shelf.

The same run would be put on any vitamins that was put on toilet paper and in the us many companies will press giller tabs together and claim it all the anti cvirus imune pack and sell a years supply for 1000$
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