[Kay King]

What I've noticed is that even with the strict procedures in place there doesn't seem to be a downturn in cases yet. I don't doubt the 'seclusion/quarantine' policies will work...but how long might it take?


There may never be another time in our lives when we can study human behavior as we can now. From friends/neighbors, to celebs, to pols and pundits - leaders and problem solvers are stepping up while others focus on their personal complaints and petty agendas. People watching - at a distance.

[Claude Whitacre]

Originally Posted by tagiscom

True, most will get a mild flu type thing, which will be different to a virus but similar.

Currently there are 30 cases in Vic, AU, so most have one chance in 125,000 of catching it in my state, or a 0.0010% chance, out of up to 3,000,000.

Shane; When you hear about most having "Mild symptoms" that just means they aren't requiring a hospital stay.

If there are 30 cases, that means that 30 people...who were tested....had results that came back positive. This is so early in the contagion that the vast majority of people who have it, haven't shown symptoms yet...and are passing it on to everyone they touch. And most of these people haven't been tested.





In a couple of weeks, the world is going to see the results of what happened today. And it isn't going to be pretty.

Originally Posted by tagiscom

So in some instances now some experts and the media are extrapolating numbers based on a prediction.

No. They are extrapolating numbers based on what is happening in all parts of the world.

We already know about the infection rates in China and Italy. In the US, we are just a couple weeks behind them.

So it's not a prediction. It's happening now.

[tagiscom]

Originally Posted by Kay King

Every investor in my family is buying into the downturn - it's what investors do. People that might need their money should not be investing to begin with.

Buying into the downturn is trickly, although l will certainly be speculating on the bottom when l can.

Originally Posted by DWolfe

Saw a video the other day said the person was patient #31 in your quote. This weekend someone went to a Hospital in East Orange and gave a fake id. The person tested positive. When the Newark police found out about the fake id. They are now looking for this person. How many will this one person infect ?

Wonder why the person you quoted keeps bringing this subject up in their post other than ..... nah never mind

Went to pick up bird food yesterday from a local pet store. Got there and the building was locked with a big sign on it. Closed due to the c- virus. The reason is to keep foot traffic out of the store, because they want to protect their family.

The sign also read. A employee would be in the store taken care of things there The sign said to call a number or place your order through facebook.. They will put the order together after it is prepaid. No cash is allowed. Once the card is processed they gave you a time to pickup the supplies in front of the store. Once ready they opened the door laid the product on the ground at a safe distance. That was done you can pick it up. Great way to keep social distance and risk not your health on both ends.

Geesh, ok, Don, l have finished my business course today, so time that l change some links to ahem, located, never mind.

Originally Posted by Claude Whitacre

Shane; When you hear about most having "Mild symptoms" that just means they aren't requiring a hospital stay.

If there are 30 cases, that means that 30 people...who were tested....had results that came back positive. This is so early in the contagion that the vast majority of people who have it, haven't shown symptoms yet...and are passing it on to everyone they touch. And most of these people haven't been tested.

In a couple of weeks, the world is going to see the results of what happened today. And it isn't going to be pretty.

No. They are extrapolating numbers based on what is happening in all parts of the world.

We already know about the infection rates in China and Italy. In the US, we are just a couple weeks behind them.

So it's not a prediction. It's happening now.

No, Claude, phew l hate to say this, (l know Whatti will get the knife and folk out) the paper l like to read had such a heading on its paper that was predicting a result, or worst case possible.

Or something along that lines of 100 to 250,000 Australians will die from this.

That is pushing fear, especially in my state where entire streets can be locked off from everyone else if a group infection occurs.

Some other media outlets slammed this, as l do.

SARS also had similar over the top predictions but it mutated to a less nasty form, C - 19 is also showing signs of mutating to a less nasty form as we speak.

[Kay King]

Buying into the downturn is trickly, although l will certainly be speculating on the bottom when l can.

Right.

C - 19 is also showing signs of mutating to a less nasty form as we speak.

Not true. According to China and some scientists, this corniavirus is mutating to a more aggressive strain. Not a good news scenario and none of us (with the exception of Derek, perhaps) is qualified to predict what might happen.

[Odahh]

Shane do you understand what worse case scenario means .

Worse case is what is happening in Italy and France weeks after the virus started spreading .medical resources overwhelmed and doctors having to chose who to try to save and who to let die.

And that will effect everyone with a critical need for medical care not just those with the Wuhan virus.

The steps in place are to slow this down and produce the thing needed to take care of the most I'll or critical

[whateverpedia]

Originally Posted by Kay King

Not true. According to China and some scientists, this corniavirus is mutating to a more aggressive strain. Not a good news scenario and none of us (with the exception of Derek, perhaps) is qualified to predict what might happen.

He obviously has no understanding of how, or even why things evolve. In order to survive, whether it's a virus, a vegetable, or some form of animal, it ALWAYS evolves into something stronger than the previous incarnation to enable its survival. It never evolves into a weaker form. NEVER.

SMFH.

[Kay King]

Sometimes I read a 'study' and go 'huh?" "new news" is that perhaps those with type A blood might be more susceptible to the coronavirus...but after reading the results it didn't make sense.



Are those with A-positive more 'susceptible' is simply more plentiful? They are saying the least common blood types have the lowest level of infection - isn't that common sense as that is a smaller group to begin with? If I were a research scientist I think I'd get lost in my own head....

[Dan Riffle]

Originally Posted by Kay King

Sometimes I read a 'study' and go 'huh?" "new news" is that perhaps those with type A blood might be more susceptible to the coronavirus...but after reading the results it didn't make sense.



Are those with A-positive more 'susceptible' is simply more plentiful? They are saying the least common blood types have the lowest level of infection - isn't that common sense as that is a smaller group to begin with? If I were a research scientist I think I'd get lost in my own head....

I saw that article. It was poorly written. I don't think the figures were speaking in raw numbers. I believe the numbers are showing a greater ratio than that of the ratio of Type A to Type O.

For example (I don't know the actual numbers) if we assume that 60% of humans have Type A and 40% have Type O, but 85% of victims have Type A blood, that exceeds the ratio you would expect.

Does that mean anything? It's probably too early to tell.

[Frank Donovan]

Originally Posted by whateverpedia

In order to survive, whether it's a virus, a vegetable, or some form of animal, it ALWAYS evolves into something stronger than the previous incarnation to enable its survival. It never evolves into a weaker form. NEVER.

Just on a technical point.. evolutionary success for any organism depends on adaptability - not strength or aggression. It wouldn't do a virus, for example, any good to replicate so fast that it kills off its host before it has time to spread to another carrier. In an enclosed or contained environment, it might possibly be in a virus' self-interest to become less aggressive. Not that we've seen any evidence of that happening yet with COVID-19.

[lanfear63]

Originally Posted by whateverpedia

Looks like someone's striving for a Darwin Award.

Is that for Survival of the Thickest

[whateverpedia]

Originally Posted by Frank Donovan

Just on a technical point.. evolutionary success for any organism depends on adaptability - not strength or aggression. It wouldn't do a virus, for example, any good to replicate so fast that it kills off its host before it has time to spread to another carrier. In an enclosed or contained environment, it might possibly be in a virus' self-interest to become less aggressive. Not that we've seen any evidence of that happening yet with COVID-19.

Fair point.

I guess I meant to say that as a virus becomes less efficient at propagating, either because of vaccines or herd immunity it will mutate into something more powerful than it was before in order for it to survive.

[Odahh]

Originally Posted by Dan Riffle

I saw that article. It was poorly written. I don't think the figures were speaking in raw numbers. I believe the numbers are showing a greater ratio than that of the ratio of Type A to Type O.

For example (I don't know the actual numbers) if we assume that 60% of humans have Type A and 40% have Type O, but 85% of victims have Type A blood, that exceeds the ratio you would expect.

Does that mean anything? It's probably too early to tell.

Maybe the reason it effected and killed more people over 60 or 70 in China is because .the one child policy means that is a much larger demographic than younger generations..as France and Italy are not seeing the difference . As young people are getting hit just as hard.

Or it could be China is losing about the total number

[Dan Riffle]

Originally Posted by Odahh

Maybe the reason it effected and killed more people over 60 or 70 in China is because .the one child policy means that is a much larger demographic than younger generations..as France and Italy are not seeing the difference . As young people are getting hit just as hard.

Or it could be China is losing about the total number

That's a fair point, but it's not relevant to what Kay and I were taking about.

[Claude Whitacre]

Originally Posted by whateverpedia

Fair point.

I guess I meant to say that as a virus becomes less efficient at propagating, either because of vaccines or herd immunity it will mutate into something more powerful than it was before in order for it to survive.

A longer gestation period would accomplish that. Worse for us, better for them.

[Odahh]

Originally Posted by Dan Riffle

That's a fair point, but it's not relevant to what Kay and I were taking about.

The problem is people might be falsley assuming elderly people may be at more risk because the first groups it hit had a population with more older people than younger people.

I don't know how bloodtypes are dispursed but it could just be far more people with a blood type have been exposed .

And not that having a certain bloodtypes gives any protection.

[whateverpedia]

Gee, how quickly things can happen. It only seems like a couple of minutes ago someone on here was wishing Australia could be like the UK and not "close everything down".

Well, well, well. It seems like BoJo and his merry band of minstrels didn't get the memo:

Schools, colleges and nurseries in England are to join those in the rest of the UK in closing on Friday “until further notice” to try to curb the spread of coronavirus, the government has announced, with the only exception being made for children of key workers and for vulnerable children.

The announcement came simultaneously from Gavin Williamson, the education secretary, who was speaking in the Commons, and at a Downing Street press conference.

GCSE and A-level exams will also not now take place in May and June, but pupils will still get qualifications, Boris Johnson said, without giving details on how this would happen.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...lose-uk-friday

It doesn't matter what anyone believes, shit is happening and its happening very fast.

Australia will follow suit over the weekend, or by next week at the latest. If ScoMo doesn't act, parents will take matters into their own hands and remove their progeny from the schools anyway.

[Bewley]

Originally Posted by whateverpedia

Further developments:

Travel ban to the US from Europe (excluding the UK, which I suppose isn't legally part of Europe anymore);
.

Unless the island of Great Britain and Northern Ireland are towed a few 100 miles north towards Iceland, we are geographically part of the continent of Europe.

We are no longer members of the EU, which now comprises of 26 European countries. Not all European countries are part of the EU.

[tagiscom]

Originally Posted by Kay King

Right.

Not true. According to China and some scientists, this corniavirus is mutating to a more aggressive strain. Not a good news scenario and none of us (with the exception of Derek, perhaps) is qualified to predict what might happen.

(link to ad for paid site removed)

In an academic paper, still under peer review but provided to The Australian, the Duke National University of Singapore team reported the protein “deletion” discovered in eight Singapore *patients between February 9 and March 2 was consistent with those found at the tail end of the 2003 SARS outbreak, and could signal a weakening of the disease.

SARS also weakened after a while, as does most animal to human viruses do.

Originally Posted by Odahh

Shane do you understand what worse case scenario means .

Worse case is what is happening in Italy and France weeks after the virus started spreading .medical resources overwhelmed and doctors having to chose who to try to save and who to let die.

And that will effect everyone with a critical need for medical care not just those with the Wuhan virus.

The steps in place are to slow this down and produce the thing needed to take care of the most I'll or critical

And do you understand panicking!

Sure the UK, is closing its schools down, but that is it, at present or it is carry on across the board. I don't see them looking at Amway graphs thinking if one gets it and then 10 get it, etc.

If containment and targeting the sick is maintained, then it is virtually impossible for this to blow out!


That is what South Korea and others are doing and it is working, mass media are there to make money, and most of the time they give good advise, but sometimes they do not.

Originally Posted by whateverpedia

He obviously has no understanding of how, or even why things evolve. In order to survive, whether it's a virus, a vegetable, or some form of animal, it ALWAYS evolves into something stronger than the previous incarnation to enable its survival. It never evolves into a weaker form. NEVER.

SMFH.

Read my response to Kays question, YES IT DOES!

[whateverpedia]

To the tune of War Pigs:

People gathered in their masses
Buying paper to wipe their asses
Evil minds of self gratification
Hoarding cleanser and medication
Oh, Lord yeah

(Apologies to Messrs Butler, Iommi, Osbourne and Ward)

[whateverpedia]

We've been told in an earlier post that the UK is "carrying on as usual across the board".

Let's do a Fact Check on that shall we?

The Premier League soccer is closed down until at least April 3, with the possibility of shutting down the rest of the season. This also applies to the leagues/divisions below the Premier as well;

The Queen has gone into isolation;

40 underground Tube stations in London have been closed for the foreseeable future;

Hundreds of cultural and entertainment events been cancelled up and down the country, including the world famous Chelsea Flower Show.

A simple Google search turned up those tidbits of information, and the list is by no means exhaustive. There are many, many more examples.

So, no. It's not "just schools that have closed down", and it sure ain't "carrying on as usual across the board".

[Odahh]

Shane.

Read my response .containment is not the point .slowing this down so it doesn't overwhelm the medical systems.while we build the tools to fight this.or produce the stuff we need.

So do you honestly think no changes should have been made and we should be going about normal buisiness.

It is easy to point out what you don't agree with .so how would you oh great one..differ in fighting this . Or do you think it really does not need to be caught. You are looking at South Korea and ignoring itally and other European countries .

South Korea can fight this through monitoring because they have a system in place to track people's cellphones data and reconstruct who they came in contact with. But you are pointing to South Korea . You wouldn't even take part if An government tried that .

[GordonJ]

Originally Posted by whateverpedia

Gee, how quickly things can happen.


It doesn't matter what anyone believes, shit is happening and its happening very fast.

THIS^^^^^^

A couple of random thoughts...

The toilet paper and cleaning supplies RUN was a knee jerk reaction to the UNKNOWN. And we are still in UNKNOWN territory. It was and is a subconscious mechanism of CONTROL, which we don't have.

We don't know. Don't have control, and are rapidly watching the world spin out of known orbits (metaphorically).

HEALTH should be everyone's top priority, although it isn't and probably never will be. Healthy living requires a fair amount of self discipline. The "Bros" partying on Spring Break is one glaring example as is NBA players WITH the virus touching all the microphones.

It brings comedian Ron (aka Tater Tot) White to mind, "there is no cure for stupidity".

We are as near universal Martial Law as we have been since WW II. And the argument gets split over that too, a good thing?, a terrible thing?

In a crisis, or Emergency, people default to their own "NORMALCY BIASES"
and for many that is an Ostrich, head in the sand, approach. The opposite is the chicken without a head running around, having had the sky fall on him.

During these times, we'll find CASH is once again King, and Barter becomes a Queen. This week millions of Americans were put out of work, those who teach in schools, public, private and specialty (dance, martial arts, etc.).

MONEY is just ONE way to exchange value. But I think making money becomes a higher priority, maybe right after taking care of your health.

This is ONLY the 7th day since the American National Emergency was declared, and in that week, astounding activities have happened, and it is still very EARLY into this thing.

So, yea. Go ahead and believe what you want. You will anyhow. But when anyone starts talking out of their ass, then it isn't only a right to respond, it is the right thing to do to put ignorance in its place, back up their arse.

Well, just some rando thoughts here.

GordonJ

[Kay King]

PCalvert posted a link to an article that does a great job of explaining the level of risk of this viral strain - and the spread of it.


I am reposting a deleted link as I found the article explained some issues I didn't 'get'. To me, the best thing you can do is be informed.

The link below is to an article written by six doctors - I found it interesting. Yes, the site 'sells' - but it's only the article that applies here.

https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/03...hysicians.html


I'm impressed with our local and state response here in Ohio. Kroger is a large grocery chain and has shortened their hours so there is time for restocking....they are reassuring people here there are plenty of supplies thought they are limited the number of some goods. I think this will be case across the country as supply chains reorganize...at least i hope so.



I liked the quote at the top of the article link above:


“Everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist. Everything we do after will seem inadequate.”
– Michael Leavitt

[Odahh]

The picture of the partiers on the beach was apperently from Saturday and they where following the known guildlines on Saturday .that was the federal guideline for crowdsize of 250 or less . Sunday it was like 50 .Monday 10 .

Now to these ventilators .apperently they only get made in China and China stopped sending them out . I don't know how accurate that is as I just saw governed cumo mentioning it .

Also the biggest reason for the rapid increase in numbers of cases. Is due to increase in testing.

The government is moving real fast on this and almost all functions of government really needed are going much faster than sceen before

So how fast cans manufacturers and government work together to produce move the manufacturing here of the things see need and produce them in the numbers we need.

[tagiscom]

Originally Posted by Odahh

Shane.

Read my response .containment is not the point .slowing this down so it doesn't overwhelm the medical systems.while we build the tools to fight this.or produce the stuff we need.

So do you honestly think no changes should have been made and we should be going about normal buisiness.

It is easy to point out what you don't agree with .so how would you oh great one..differ in fighting this . Or do you think it really does not need to be caught. You are looking at South Korea and ignoring itally and other European countries .

South Korea can fight this through monitoring because they have a system in place to track people's cellphones data and reconstruct who they came in contact with. But you are pointing to South Korea . You wouldn't even take part if An government tried that .

I know, but is putting the world into a recession necessary?

.so how would you oh great one..differ in fighting this

Least you got that right.

Quantas lays off ten of thousands, with some never getting employed again, and some becoming depressed and some killing themselves.

Sure that slows it down, but it causes serious damage.

The ASX 200, and US conterpart has dropped 31% most likely with more to come, with millions adversely affected, so they have to work longer, or find a job in their 60 or 70's, and in the current situation find it near impossible to do so, necesscary?

I have mentioned the tiny chance of catching this, and the small chance of dying from this, but the worst case scenario keeps ringing upstairs.

If this was 40 times more viral ant than the common cold, then N Korea wouldn't be containing it, or their numbers would not be dropping.

Italy did nothing and it got out of hand, then went the other way or 100% by closing their country down. I can't say anything about that, but AU is containing and monotering, so it is very unlikely that it will get out of hand.

Vic has had no deaths from this, and AU wide l believe we have had 7 fatalities, all over the age of 70.

This is putting one worn out fear aside for another, and if there is money to be made then gloom and doom predictions need to be taken with a grain of salt and common sense.

There have been NO instances of this getting out of hand in AU, and if so then the area will be locked down and the military brought in so it will be contained.

Italy has thousands of cases, and they locked their country down, with it being contained in one way or another, not what you and others are fearing that Italys people are dying in droves, they are not.

Italy has shown that this will not wipe out a few billion world wide, as any country with those ratio's will lock down, and moniter, and if they cannot cope, ask for help from other countries that have it under control, (us being one that comes to mind).

Some may thrive on fear, but l am not one of them!

[lanfear63]

Originally Posted by whateverpedia

We've been told in an earlier post that the UK is "carrying on as usual across the board".

Let's do a Fact Check on that shall we?

The Premier League soccer is closed down until at least April 3, with the possibility of shutting down the rest of the season. This also applies to the leagues/divisions below the Premier as well;

The Queen has gone into isolation;

40 underground Tube stations in London have been closed for the foreseeable future;

Hundreds of cultural and entertainment events been cancelled up and down the country, including the world famous Chelsea Flower Show.

A simple Google search turned up those tidbits of information, and the list is by no means exhaustive. There are many, many more examples.

So, no. It's not "just schools that have closed down", and it sure ain't "carrying on as usual across the board".

"The Queen has gone into isolation;"

Looks like Elton is taking extreme measures

[Claude Whitacre]

Well, Boys and Girls...

There are currently 229,973 confirmed cases and 9,386 deaths from the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak as of today, March 19, 2020,

That's a 4% fatality rate. That's 40 times the rate of people dying of the flu.

THAT'S what makes this is different from the flu. It's about as real as it gets.

All ages (although under 20 it drops off dramatically) are dying, and all ages are bring hospitalized.

And in most countries, we are just at the beginning of this shit storm.
Who do I feel sorry for? Stupid people. They aren't taking precautions. And the people they infect.

[kenmichaels]

Originally Posted by Claude Whitacre

Well, Boys and Girls...

There are currently 229,973 confirmed cases and 9,386 deaths from the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak as of today, March 19, 2020,

That's a 4% fatality rate. That's 40 times the rate of people dying of the flu.

THAT'S what makes this is different from the flu. It's about as real as it gets.

All ages (although under 20 it drops off dramatically) are dying, and all ages are bring hospitalized.

And in most countries, we are just at the beginning of this shit storm.
Who do I feel sorry for? Stupid people. They aren't taking precautions. And the people they infect.

Yeah man ... now I'm worried on a different level.

Hear all this FDA stuff on TV?
All the potential, possible, maybe's flying out of their mouths?

That much overselling generally means...run

Edit: Now I wish I was one of those doomsday preppers with a bad assed bunker
and 20 years worth of food, ammo and water

I deal with hurricanes...so I'm always supplied with a month of the basics
that can be consumed on a gas grill with a fresh water well.

For some reason I have to keep telling myself that I don't need to buy anything.

[socialentry]

Originally Posted by GordonJ

During these times, we'll find CASH is once again King, and Barter becomes a Queen.


GordonJ

Dunno about other people but in the next few weeks its gonna be online shopping, card + touchless tap only for me.

[kenmichaels]

Originally Posted by socialentry

Dunno about other people but in the next few weeks its gonna be online shopping, card + touchless tap only for me.

I and everyone I was able to convince have been doing that for a few weeks now.

I have never been called stupid by so many people.
- and that is from family and people who like me. lolz.

[lanfear63]

Originally Posted by Claude Whitacre

Well, Boys and Girls...

There are currently 229,973 confirmed cases and 9,386 deaths from the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak as of today, March 19, 2020,

That's a 4% fatality rate. That's 40 times the rate of people dying of the flu.

THAT'S what makes this is different from the flu. It's about as real as it gets.

All ages (although under 20 it drops off dramatically) are dying, and all ages are bring hospitalized.

And in most countries, we are just at the beginning of this shit storm.
Who do I feel sorry for? Stupid people. They aren't taking precautions. And the people they infect.

What I would really like to see is the percentage of deaths that have occured with people who have pre-existing conditions or weak dispositions, regardless of age. That would be the true measure of it's danger.

[Odahh]

Shane .

Where are you reading you news to think itally is getting better 35000 cases with 3000 deaths and there was a large number of deaths the last day.

You don't seem to see the logic in locking down before it becomes a problem . But I am not quite sure what logic you ever see.

The reason you are not seeing many cases in Vic is because things shut down .to slow the spread of this. The world is shutting down . To fight this or slow this down and .you are purposely misreading the figures to believe the lies you want to hold onto

[Kay King]

What I would really like to see is the percentage of deaths that have occured with people who have pre-existing conditions or weak dispositions, regardless of age. That would be the true measure of it's danger.

Did you know in the US the medical community is listing 'obesity' as a 'condition'? Are you saying it's not dangerous if it only kills a certain groups of people? Surely not.



I think the greatest fear is that a virus that can kill an 80 yr old today - can kill a 50 yr old tomorrow - and perhaps a 20 year old the day after that. Many people live full lives with 'pre-existing conditions'.


I saw in a story today that some people are rehanging outdoor Christmas lights to show their spirit of community. The theory is people can get in their cars and cruise neighborhood looking at the lights - without exposing themselves to the virus. I'm sure kids would love it.

[lanfear63]

Originally Posted by Kay King

Did you know in the US the medical community is listing 'obesity' as a 'condition'? Are you saying it's not dangerous if it only kills a certain groups of people? Surely not.



I think the greatest fear is that a virus that can kill an 80 yr old today - can kill a 50 yr old tomorrow - and perhaps a 20 year old the day after that. Many people live full lives with 'pre-existing conditions'.


I saw in a story today that some people are rehanging outdoor Christmas lights to show their spirit of community. The theory is people can get in their cars and cruise neighborhood looking at the lights - without exposing themselves to the virus. I'm sure kids would love it.

Yep, Obese people are putting more of a strain on their organs and may suffer shortness of breath due to not exercising, so reduced lung capacity. It could be counted as a pre-existing condition. The virus attacking the lungs is the killer symptom.

It's going to pluck out people of all ages but I'm willing to bet that average healthy people who eat relatively well and exercise are going to be almost non existent in the final stats.

[Claude Whitacre]

Originally Posted by lanfear63

What I would really like to see is the percentage of deaths that have occured with people who have pre-existing conditions or weak dispositions, regardless of age. That would be the true measure of it's danger.

No. The cases of the flu have the same population, the same age ranges as the Covid19.

The same pre-existing conditions, the same everything. 40 times the rate of deaths world wide. People with the flu also had respiratory problems in the same rate as this virus, they just didn't die as often.

The only thing that throws off this 40 times figure a little, is that Italy couldn't get everyone treated at the same time, so some died because they weren't treated in time.

And consider this, the vast majority of people getting the flu, never go to a hospital. Heck, most don't even call a doctor, they just wait it out. So the figures are skewed. Unfortunately it means the flu figures are skewed because it shows a higher death rate than reality, because most flu cases go untreated.

That means this virus is worse. And the people that are dying from the Coronavirus? The average hospital stay for them is almost 3 weeks, before they die. that means that the death numbers are three weeks behind the positive test numbers.

So in 3 weeks, we'll see how many died that showed symptoms today.

Part of this depends on where you get your news. If you watch FOX, it's the same as the flu. If you watch MSNBC, you're more likely to be depressed

But the CDC? Thems the facts.

The good news is, once you have it, you don't spread it, and you probably can't get it again.....so the whole effort is to slow down the inevitable world wide spread. We can have most people get this virus (although with very high mortality rates for a type of flu virus) . just not all at once. A few months from now, this will be mostly over, and we can all get back to poking each other with sticks.

Originally Posted by Kay King

Did you know in the US the medical community is listing 'obesity' as a 'condition'? Are you saying it's not dangerous if it only kills a certain groups of people? Surely not.

And what country has most of the obese people? So....

I'll have you know, obesity isn't a disease, it's a fashion choice. Being shaped like a beach ball is considered very attractive by some...like my cats for instance.

[Kay King]

'll have you know, obesity isn't a disease, it's a fashion choice. Being shaped like a beach ball is considered very attractive by some...like my cats for instance.

The old 'I'm not fat, I'm fluffy' excuse?


EDIT: An OMG moment - Italy's numbers for today were just posted - another new high of 5,322 with 427 more deaths.

A problem I heard mentioned by a medical panel is that in Italy it is apparently common for 3 generations to live together. So you have young people going to jobs and out with friends and then coming home to a residence also housing parents and grandparents. Sounded logical.

679 cases/million residents is a shocking number when compared with other countries.

If we have members from Italy would love to hear their experience/opinion on what is happening in their country.

[Dan Riffle]

Originally Posted by Claude Whitacre

No. The cases of the flu have the same population, the same age ranges as the Covid19.

The same pre-existing conditions, the same everything. 40 times the rate of deaths world wide. People with the flu also had respiratory problems in the same rate as this virus, they just didn't die as often.

The only thing that throws off this 40 times figure a little, is that Italy couldn't get everyone treated at the same time, so some died because they weren't treated in time.

I don't know that this is entirely true. Per the CDC, "8 out of 10 deaths associated with #COVID19 occurred in older adults." This is straight from the CDC's twitter.

As such, the rate of death is not evenly distributed straight across the spectrum. Mark's request to see the numbers (rate of death) among healthy, non-seniors is a valid request.

This is not to say, however, that anybody should take this lightly. First, you don't know whom you, personally, will infect before you know you have it. Second, millions of people live with unknown medical conditions. You might feel healthy...right up until this bullshit kills you.

[lanfear63]

Originally Posted by Claude Whitacre

No. The cases of the flu have the same population, the same age ranges as the Covid19.

The same pre-existing conditions, the same everything. 40 times the rate of deaths world wide. People with the flu also had respiratory problems in the same rate as this virus, they just didn't die as often.

The only thing that throws off this 40 times figure a little, is that Italy couldn't get everyone treated at the same time, so some died because they weren't treated in time.

And consider this, the vast majority of people getting the flu, never go to a hospital. Heck, most don't even call a doctor, they just wait it out. So the figures are skewed. Unfortunately it means the flu figures are skewed because it shows a higher death rate than reality, because most flu cases go untreated.

That means this virus is worse. And the people that are dying from the Coronavirus? The average hospital stay for them is almost 3 weeks, before they die. that means that the death numbers are three weeks behind the positive test numbers.

So in 3 weeks, we'll see how many died that showed symptoms today.

Part of this depends on where you get your news. If you watch FOX, it's the same as the flu. If you watch MSNBC, you're more likely to be depressed

But the CDC? Thems the facts.

The good news is, once you have it, you don't spread it, and you probably can't get it again.....so the whole effort is to slow down the inevitable world wide spread. We can have most people get this virus (although with very high mortality rates for a type of flu virus) . just not all at once. A few months from now, this will be mostly over, and we can all get back to poking each other with sticks.



And what country has most of the obese people? So....

I'll have you know, obesity isn't a disease, it's a fashion choice. Being shaped like a beach ball is considered very attractive by some...like my cats for instance.

Punch Riffle, Kick You

Given that thinking then the, flu kills over 200k per year so we times that by 40 which means 8,000,000 possible deaths worldwide from Corona. However, we do not put extreme measures in place for the Flu so hopefully it will be far less.

[Claude Whitacre]

Originally Posted by Dan Riffle

I don't know that this is entirely true. Per the CDC, "8 out of 10 deaths associated with #COVID19 occurred in older adults." This is straight from the CDC's twitter.
.

I think you misunderstood my post.
The deaths are not equally distributed. The deaths and hospitalizations are distributed in a similar way as the hospitalizations and deaths of the flu. It's just a high multiple of hospitalizations and deaths from the flu.

The deaths from the flu were not equally distributed either. But yeah, about 80% of the deaths are from 65 and over. And most of the the rest are from 45 to 65. Just like the flu...except 40 times more people, who get the virus, are dying from this virus. That number will change as this progresses, first going up, then down.

Added later; More people are being hospitalized that are not elderly. They just aren't dying at the same rate as the elderly. I think I read that 12% of those hospitalized are between 20-45. That's from memory, and could be wrong.

Originally Posted by lanfear63

Punch Riffle, Kick You

Given that thinking then the, flu kills over 200k per year so we times that by 40 which means 8,000,000 possible deaths worldwide from Corona. However, we do not put extreme measures in place for the Flu so hopefully it will be far less.

I can't believe I'm going to say this...but that makes sense.

But for this to be true, we have to stop the spread, not just slow it down. I'm not sure we can do that.

But I've heard predictions, from virologists and real experts...in the 8 million range...We'll find out soon enough.

[lanfear63]

Originally Posted by Claude Whitacre

I think you misunderstood my post.
The deaths are not equally distributed. The deaths and hospitalizations are distributed in a similar way as the hospitalizations and deaths of the flu. It's just a high multiple of hospitalizations and deaths from the flu.

The deaths from the flu were not equally distributed either. But yeah, about 80% of the deaths are from 65 and over. And most of the the rest are from 45 to 65. Just like the flu...except 40 times more people, who get the virus, are dying from this virus. That number will change as this progresses, first going up, then down.

Added later; More people are being hospitalized that are not elderly. They just aren't dying at the same rate as the elderly. I think I read that 12% of those hospitalized are between 20-45. That's from memory, and could be wrong.



I can't believe I'm going to say this...but that makes sense.

But for this to be true, we have to stop the spread, not just slow it down. I'm not sure we can do that.

But I've heard predictions, from virologists and real experts...in the 8 million range...We'll find out soon enough.

Draconian and authoritarian measures like the Chinese are doing, did it. Give us a week to stock up with food and supplies, making sure that the stores would be stocked and restocked continuously till then, Don't allow panic buying though, enough for 3 weeks per person. Make sure all homeless are off the streets, borders are closed tight, essential services are kept running like electricity gas..etc ..you know.

Then shut it down for 3 weeks, Curfew for 3 weeks, strictly enforced, no-body steps out of there home. In that time, those who have got it will go through it, those who need treatment are carted of by medics.Those who will die will die. Virus pretty much gone.

Of course it will never happen here...or will it?

[kenmichaels]

Originally Posted by lanfear63

Of course it will never happen here...or will it?

That's the million dollar debate at my house right now.

[savidge4]

Originally Posted by kenmichaels

That's the million dollar debate at my house right now.

Its not even a debate - IT WONT.

Pay attention to what is being said... they are predicting 3 months before the downside of this comes to pass.

Look at the numbers alone. China locked down 33,000,000 people They literally went door to door and separated the "Sick" from the "Sickest of Sick" to the "People with no signs"

Then look at the States 330,000,000 or 10X the population base UNLESS they start locking down borders yesterday

Homeless off the streets?! they ( California ) are still struggling with allowing the homeless to remain in their tents during daylight hours. Same State that never officially closed schools - they ( the school districts ) self imposed closures. Think about this for a moment the furthest left State in our Union and they are acting as tho they are philosophically the furthest Right

There wont be any homeless people left after all of this - and maybe that's the plan - who knows. I believe they so see the writing on the wall that they have just short of given up Why do anything - because regardless of what we do it will not be enough. Id put money down on a severe political shift out west after this is all said and done.

[Odahh]

Originally Posted by kenmichaels

That's the million dollar debate at my house right now.

So at one point do you think we will forcibly isolate anyone with the virus and quarentine every person they came in contact with.

And shoot dead anyone who doesn't go obey.

If we want to do what China did.

I know they say they did things differently .

[myob]

Originally Posted by savidge4

Its not even a debate - IT WONT.

Pay attention to what is being said... they are predicting 3 months before the downside of this comes to pass.

It took 8 months to contain the SARS virus. I think it way too optimistic to believe COVID 19 (which actually is an iteration of SARS) can be alleviated any sooner than that.

The big problem is these viruses for the most part can circulate and spread without symptoms in healthy people for weeks unless specific medical testing is done.

Since SARS, however, the advances in technology needed to understand the virus and develop diagnostic tests or treatments has vastly improved. But an effective vaccine is still as much as 18 months away.

[Odahh]

Myob I think the three months is the part of the curve where we see more infections and deaths.

On a different note I was talking about repurposing unused retail space as ICU cv19 emergency space .

NYC is considering using hotel space as cv19 emergency beding. That is going unsed because of this shutdown.

Il give horrible numbers for the US 140million get it in the next 6 months 1 million die.and the economy retract10 percent .

But see I am some guy on the internet. Who has drank a few

[Dan Riffle]

Originally Posted by kenmichaels

That's the million dollar debate at my house right now.

We, as society, don't have the stones to make the ultimate choice, that ultimate choice for the greater good. We live in a world where there's a firestorm of hate if a comedian uses a wrong word. Do you really think we have the stomach to make a choice like that? We can barely get teenagers off the beach.

You and I've talked about this before. I think our fathers could. Hard men can make hard choices. Us? Now? Too soft.

[savidge4]

Here is the immediate future, as I am sure many a state will follow suit

https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news...-down/2333625/

This is a pretty detailed list of business' that are deemed "Life Sustaining" vs NON. IE as of 8pm this evening in the state of Pennsylvania anything with a "Yes" will remain open, and everything with a "No" will be closed until further notice.

[GordonJ]

Originally Posted by savidge4

Here is the immediate future, as I am sure many a state will follow suit

https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news...-down/2333625/

This is a pretty detailed list of business' that are deemed "Life Sustaining" vs NON. IE as of 8pm this evening in the state of Pennsylvania anything with a "Yes" will remain open, and everything with a "No" will be closed until further notice.

When the justice system gets overwhelmed, when law enforcement and the COURTS can't keep up (and due to our overcrowed system already) and CRIME continues...is when MARTIAL LAW is called in.

We've created a shit storm in our Criminal Justice system, and because of this and local jails getting full fast...don't be surprised to see one "answer" to the homeless problem to be a variation of our immigrant policy...in the desert holding areas, for their (and our) own protection.

Just if you only came here everyday, and only read the posts at the WF, you would be concerned about the lack of seriousness and the gravity of the situation...and the expectancy of a quick return to normalcy is going to put many a Warrior behind the chicken wire, and one difference between those HARD men of our father and grandfather's generation is, they had COMPASSION.

And that will be lacking when these softies in D.C (and more importantly State Capitals) decide to get tuff, to harden up.

GordonJ

[tagiscom]

Originally Posted by kenmichaels

I and everyone I was able to convince have been doing that for a few weeks now.

I have never been called stupid by so many people.
- and that is from family and people who like me. lolz.

Unfortunately in AU, that approach does not work. Or l tried to order pasta, shampoo, toilet paper, paper towels and canned stuff, then a few days ago l got a refund and an empty bag on my doorstep with shampoo and nothing else.

These days l have to drive around to 4 or more out of the way Coles stores to get what l can from each one. Managed to find some eggs yesterday which was sold out everywhere else.

And the one item per customer is rubbish, since they just go back for more and go through the automatic checkouts.

Australians are sick of looters, and it will get ugly before they stop.

Originally Posted by Odahh

Shane .

Where are you reading you news to think itally is getting better 35000 cases with 3000 deaths and there was a large number of deaths the last day.

You don't seem to see the logic in locking down before it becomes a problem . But I am not quite sure what logic you ever see.

The reason you are not seeing many cases in Vic is because things shut down .to slow the spread of this. The world is shutting down . To fight this or slow this down and .you are purposely misreading the figures to believe the lies you want to hold onto

Ok, yes Italy is getting out of hand...(12,000+ deaths with around 200 recently out of 112,000+ cases, so it is best to lock up Italy.

But fining people 20k, who break isolation in my state, is something that l do not agree with, and it will only drive the problem underground.

A poor person gets it, and thinks ok, l will go to the doctor eventhough he can do nothing, stay at home for 2 weeks, without the ability to order any food online, (apart from toilet paper on Ebay) and have a visit from the police occasionally.

Or don't tell anyone, and stay at home until synptions subside then go out for food and avoid the elderly.

Originally Posted by myob

It took 8 months to contain the SARS virus. I think it way too optimistic to believe COVID 19 (which actually is an iteration of SARS) can be alleviated any sooner than that.

The big problem is these viruses for the most part can circulate and spread without symptoms in healthy people for weeks unless specific medical testing is done.

Since SARS, however, the advances in technology needed to understand the virus and develop diagnostic tests or treatments has vastly improved. But an effective vaccine is still as much as 18 months away.

Thankyou for the level headed reply.

[kenmichaels]

Originally Posted by savidge4

Its not even a debate - IT WONT.

I would not bet money on that.

Originally Posted by Odahh

So at one point do you think we will forcibly isolate anyone with the virus and quarentine every person they came in contact with.

And shoot dead anyone who doesn't go obey.

.

Yes I do.

No, of course not.

Originally Posted by Dan Riffle

We, as society, don't have the stones to make the ultimate choice, that ultimate choice for the greater good. We live in a world where there's a firestorm of hate if a comedian uses a wrong word. Do you really think we have the stomach to make a choice like that? We can barely get teenagers off the beach.

You and I've talked about this before. I think our fathers could. Hard men can make hard choices. Us? Now? Too soft.

I think so too, but...I think it needs to happen now if we want to have any chance of controlling it. Lock it down, find the hot spots, lock them down tighter, get them in check and quarantine anyone they came into contact with.

give it a few weeks to make sure we got it right ...and then start unlocking the areas that aren't affected. Will it happen, I dunno, but I want it to happen and I feel like somehow that feeling is betraying just about everything my family believes in. Weird. I don't know if you're aware,but I'm not married anymore and wound up with a girlfriend, who appears to be an ostrich about everything happening around her. I'm starting to doubt were going to be together when this is over. Hows the little ankle biter?