[kenmichaels]

Originally Posted by Declan O Flaherty

You're trying really hard, aren't you mate?

Nobody said covid was created in a spaceship. Nobody said the first know carrier was Dracula. The fact is, you were told to call people a conspiracy theorist when they question the motives and statements from 'known' liars.

Why do people buy into silly stories? Why not ask the majority of people around the world, why they believe in a man in the sky?

Interesting that, no?

The fact is, and it is a fact, the world is chocked to the brim with people who believe in silly nonsense. I just proved that, right?

Here's the REAL truth: The story of covid being a deadly virus, doesn't make more sense than covid being no more severe than a bad flu. So, questioning the narrative, that this is a deadly virus, continually being pushed out by the very people who have been WRONG about everything from the beginning, is the same as believing the earth is flat and the Virgin Mary appearing on a grilled cheese?

I don't think so.

Those who tell the stories, rule society - Plato

I don't believe aliens abduct people. I don't believe the earth is flat. I don't even believe in a sky daddy. But somehow when it comes to questioning the motives an statements of proven liars, and very, very incompetent people who have been wildly wrong about everything from the start, I'm now a conspiracy theorist?

How does that logic work?,

You do know, outside your own little information bubble, there are many Scientists and Doctors who also question the Covid. Are they conspiracy theorists too? Does that make sense in your brain?

What you can't get around, is that you were told to call people conspiracy theorists if they question the Covid narrative. You didn't decide to do that all by yourself. You were told to do it. Because if you did decide to use your own brain, you would see how utterly ridiculous it is to compare a flat earther to a person who questions a narrative riddled with inaccuracies.

It's embarrassing to watch at this stage.

The only thing embarrassing is your education and manners.

Personal attacks aren't how you have a coherent, logical argument.

Originally Posted by Declan O Flaherty

You're trying really hard, aren't you mate?

That's what keyboard bullies do.

[1Bryan]

Originally Posted by Claude Whitacre

I'm not sure why you think that's valid.

99% of the people haven't been exposed to it yet.

Imagine this -- you are running a script on your site to track conversion. But the script only logs 1 out of every 10 visitors. So what looks like a 50% conversion rate ... is actually a 5% conversion rate.

That's what confirmed cases is like when a disease spreads far and wide and is mostly mild.

90% or more of all case are never "captured" as confirmed cases. It becomes missing data.

Sero testing captures a lot of that missing data to give a clearer picture of actual risk. That's the point of Sero testing. To try and fill in that missing data.

IFR for most people is way below 0.2% And even for the highest risk groups -- it doesn't approach 15%. CFR does.

But I already explained why CFR is an inaccurate measure at this point. But if you want to scare someone (including yourself) witless?

Go with CFR. It'll do the trick. But it's still ridiculously inaccurate.

CFR is good for disease like Ebola. With Ebola, you have to get medical treatment or die. So almost all data is captured with CFR. So ... CFR and IFR are essentially the same number.

But with things that spread far and wide and most people will never seek treatment or a test of any kind?

You need IFR. even better -- you need IFR across age ranges and health risks. That makes it even more accurate.

It's like this --

If a 35 yr old man and a 75 yr old man both are told they have stage 2 prostate cancer -- they do not have the same rates of outcomes.

Yet so much of the Covid data is lumped altogether.

Health data is supposed to be broken down pretty granular to make sense of it. And with Covid, they just seem to want to report sensational numbers.

P.S. A really long winded way of saying, most likely, in the US? Tens of millions have covid antibodies. So way more than 1% have been exposed to it. Probably 10-20%.

Which actually does have a huge impact on rate of transmission. It doesn't stop it. But it can put the R0 below 1 ... and that means eventually it does burn out. As long as it stays below 1 ... and drops continuously --

You actually DO want younger people to get it and recover. That's how nature solved that riddle. The R0 drops so low, it can barely spread. So it dies out.

Nature knows what she's doing waay more than humans do.

[Mark Singletary]

From this, it seems that COVID isn't really what's killing the most people, it's comorbidities.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ekly/index.htm

Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.

Only 6% died from COVID by itself. The rest had an average of 2.6 additional conditions.

It seems they should focus on the comorbidities more. Don't ignore the rest but if you can control them, it seems you are less likely to die.

Unfortunately, one of the results of lockdowns is people can't go to the gym/beach, play tag football with their friends, get that lump checked out, do the mammogram, etc. All the things that may help people not die if they do get infected.

Mark

[Claude Whitacre]

Originally Posted by 1Bryan

Imagine this -- you are running a script on your site to track conversion. But the script only logs 1 out of every 10 visitors. So what looks like a 50% conversion rate ... is actually a 5% conversion rate.

That's what confirmed cases is like when a disease spreads far and wide and is mostly mild.

90% or more of all case are never "captured" as confirmed cases. It becomes missing data.

Sero testing captures a lot of that missing data to give a clearer picture of actual risk. That's the point of Sero testing. To try and fill in that missing data.

IFR for most people is way below 0.2% And even for the highest risk groups -- it doesn't approach 15%. CFR does.

My God. A deeply rational explanation.

Far more people have antibodies. I wonder how many have antibodies for a flu strain, but never got sick enough to show symptoms? If you did a national Sero test for the flu, I wonder what it would show?

I've read that it takes a certain number of Covid viruses entering the body to trigger symptoms. I wonder if a very minor infection would create antibodies without showing symptoms...the response would be faster than the infection rate.

The CFR rates are accurate. Meaning the people that test positive now enter into that database. And 3% (about) of them, across the board, die.

Maybe a more accurate was to state this is that "3% of the people that were sick enough to get tested, died."

The IFR rates tell us that lots of us are exposed to this virus, and either don't actually get infected, or don't get sick enough to show symptoms enough to warrant a test

Am I understanding this correctly?

[1Bryan]

Originally Posted by Claude Whitacre

My God. A deeply rational explanation.

Far more people have antibodies. I wonder how many have antibodies for a flu strain, but never got sick enough to show symptoms? If you did a national Sero test for the flu, I wonder what it would show?

I've read that it takes a certain number of Covid viruses entering the body to trigger symptoms. I wonder if a very minor infection would create antibodies without showing symptoms...the response would be faster than the infection rate.

The CFR rates are accurate. Meaning the people that test positive now enter into that database. And 3% (about) of them, across the board, die.

Maybe a more accurate was to state this is that "3% of the people that were sick enough to get tested, died."

The IFR rates tell us that lots of us are exposed to this virus, and either don't actually get infected, or don't get sick enough to show symptoms enough to warrant a test

Am I understanding this correctly?

Not quite. Let me give this example --

Let's say on my street, 100 people get infected with Covid. But only 10 actually go get tested.

My street now has 10 "confirmed" cases. So if 1 person dies on my street from Covid?

The CFR is 1 out of 10 = 10%

But the IFR is 1 out of 100 = 1% (because 100 people were actually infected)

The 90 people that didn't get tested, still had infections. The I in IFR stands for Infection.

They still had Covid. But are not "confirmed" cases.

Best place I found for science on Covid? https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/

They only allow research papers to be submitted. And the tone is middle ground. Nobody with the hoax stuff. But also nobody with the "we're all gonna die" stuff either. And the comments mostly come from people in the medical field. So the comments can end up being a good learning experience too.

Also Dr. John Campbell on Youtube is good -- https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCF9...xg3QIBupFtBDxg

I will say this. In NY in March/April/May? People went to seek medical treatment that had symptoms of moderate Covid and couldn't "qualify" for a test.

So it wasn't all "mild" cases. Moderate meaning -- it was the sickest they had ever been in their life ...

But didn't need ICU treatment.

So it's not all "mild" or "asymptomatic" that is missing from the confirmed cases data. It's also people that had never been that sick in their life before, but couldn't "qualify" for a test.

P.S. Sero testing is how they model how far flu spreads. Each year only a few hundred thousand "confirmed" cases of flu are submitted to the CDC. The data is modeled and extrapolated and usually the number winds up being a wide range like 20 to 40 million.

That I learned on the CDC site, but I don't have the link. It was a while ago.

[tagiscom]

Originally Posted by Mark Singletary

You changed your story. Originally you said

COVID, according to your numbers, kills 2.35% while the flu kills .26%.

Mark

Sure l did, since l thaught about it, and had a better angle.

And you are coming from one angle and me another, or you are saying if it was allowed to go rampant then for every million people it would be a higher death rate than the flu but since it does not affect as many people as the flu does, it does not have a higher death rate than the flu, at least in my country it does, (which is the example l was referring to).

Originally Posted by Odahh

between now and mid march next year.. which will be 1 year of covid ..do we need to get up to a million total death n the US to say this is wrse than the flue .. or will 500k be enough .. once we get back into colder weather months and the typical cold and flue time of the year ..so how many american have to die before you accept it is a problem in America ..

the infection levels in the country may go up again and more people may die ..on a daily basis than are dying during the warm months of the year .. it will reall depend on how many people get dumped into the street from this eviction crisis that is ramping up ..

one thing the lockdowns did was allow the government to step in and get money to as many people as possible .. but because many people believe the probelm would be solved now and everyone would be going back to work and school and what ever normal was ..

instead those programs are running out and getting reduced and landlord are going bankrupt because many tenents have not paid in 5 months .. and many others just broke lease and left town ..

Well if the CDC data is accurate, then l stand corrected and it is worse in the US than here, and unlike others that go running off to their mothers, so they can abuse their powers, when someone shows that they are wrong, l accept evidence that l am wrong about pushing AU data onto US data sets.

[Mark Singletary]

Originally Posted by tagiscom

Sure l did, since l thaught about it, and had a better angle.

And you are coming from one angle and me another, or you are saying if it was allowed to go rampant then for every million people it would be a higher death rate than the flu but since it does not affect as many people as the flu does, it does not have a higher death rate than the flu, at least in my country it does, (which is the example l was referring to).

I'm looking at percentages of deaths. That's the only way I know to do it. It doesn't matter how many people get it compared to how many people die from it. And deaths is what prompted this exchange.

Pick a number -- it doesn't matter. Let's say 100,000 people. According to your numbers, of those 100,000 people with confirmed COVID 2,350 will die to COVID and 260 confirumed flu cases will die. u.

It makes no difference that there isn't 100,000 COVID cases yet, this is just a reference.

If it makes you feel better, let's go with the total cases of COVID of 25,670 and use that number to compare with the flu. 603 will die from COVID and 67 will die from the flu.

No matter the number of people infected, COVID has a much higher death rate than the flu.

Mark

[tagiscom]

Originally Posted by Mark Singletary

I'm looking at percentages of deaths. That's the only way I know to do it. It doesn't matter how many people get it compared to how many people die from it. And deaths is what prompted this exchange.

Pick a number -- it doesn't matter. Let's say 100,000 people. According to your numbers, of those 100,000 people with confirmed COVID 2,350 will die to COVID and 260 confirumed flu cases will die. u.

It makes no difference that there isn't 100,000 COVID cases yet, this is just a reference.

If it makes you feel better, let's go with the total cases of COVID of 25,670 and use that number to compare with the flu. 603 will die from COVID and 67 will die from the flu.

No matter the number of people infected, COVID has a much higher death rate than the flu.

Mark

And in Australia it affects less people so doesn't kill as many, (we can do this all day) but since l couldn't be bothered, ok you are right!

[Mark Singletary]

Originally Posted by tagiscom

And in Australia it affects less people so doesn't kill as many, (we can do this all day) but since l couldn't be bothered, ok you are right!

For those infected in Australia, according to your own numbers, it kills many more than the flu. I'm not sure why you are not seeing this.

Moving on.

Mark

[Claude Whitacre]

Originally Posted by tagiscom

And in Australia it affects less people so doesn't kill as many, (we can do this all day) but since l couldn't be bothered, ok you are right!

Originally Posted by Mark Singletary

For those infected in Australia, according to your own numbers, it kills many more than the flu. I'm not sure why you are not seeing this.

Moving on.

Mark

Please don't move on. You have no idea how entertaining this is.

[Kay King]

I was just watching a show I recorded yesterday - where a person who has been analyzing the covid-19 was pointing out that WHO and some other experts are now questioning whether lockdowns help or prolong the spread.


She was pointing out the decline in hospitalizations and in new cases in various states in the US where the virus was 'raging' a few weeks ago. There were many she mentioned where numbers are down 40-60%...and I thought it interesting her numbers are based on 'hospitalization' rather than testing or deaths. She referred to it as a mid-point - where testing can reveal many asymptomatic cases - and deaths are the end of the cycle.



She also mentioned sweden and said the focus there was protecting the elderly and those living in care and nursing homes.....and that seemed a better approach than extended lockdowns.


The number of new cases in the US is about half what it was a couple weeks ago...deaths are about a third what they have been. Good signs - we know it can change if you re-open - but we know the economy won't survive if we don't re-open.


Will be interesting to see what states do with the lower numbers.

[DWolfe]

Originally Posted by DWolfe

Early on in this thread their was talk about herd immunity. Over the weekend their was an article about possible herd immunity in Sweden. Now there is speculation about it in Brazil, the article goes on to mention other places and even parts of NYC.

https://nypost.com/2020/08/26/drop-i...ity-questions/

You have to wonder if this could actually be happening ?

Added quoting from the article - "Many researchers believe that collective immunity works differently in a live outbreak like coronavirus than in something like the measles. The virus doesn’t vanish at a specific point, but the transmission decelerates until it’s eradicated."

Originally Posted by Kay King

I was just watching a show I recorded yesterday - where a person who has been analyzing the covid-19 was pointing out that WHO and some other experts are now questioning whether lockdowns help or prolong the spread.


She was pointing out the decline in hospitalizations and in new cases in various states in the US where the virus was 'raging' a few weeks ago. There were many she mentioned where numbers are down 40-60%...and I thought it interesting her numbers are based on 'hospitalization' rather than testing or deaths. She referred to it as a mid-point - where testing can reveal many asymptomatic cases - and deaths are the end of the cycle.



She also mentioned sweden and said the focus there was protecting the elderly and those living in care and nursing homes.....and that seemed a better approach than extended lockdowns.

Kay's post reminded me of a post from last week. Now a question ? Would the death rates in NYC, NJ and a few other states that put Covid -19 patients into nursing home would be a lot lower, if that did not happen ?

The field hospitals in the Jacob Javit's Center and else where would of been a good place to send those people to. With the way it spread like wild fire. Several hundred deaths may have been avoided. There is a current investigation about this. but it seems like more of lesson that can be learned for next time. How to protect the elderly

[Jeffery]

So, what are we going to use, CFR or IFR?

[whateverpedia]

Something for those who think that most people won't show any symptoms to think about:

We’ve also known for a while that some COVID-19 patients’ hearts are taking a beating, too—but over the past few weeks, the evidence has strengthened that cardiac damage can happen even among people who have never displayed symptoms of coronavirus infection. And these frightening findings help explain why college and professional sports leagues are proceeding with special caution as they make decisions about whether or not to play.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...-any-symptoms/

[Profit Traveler]

Originally Posted by GordonJ

Speculation. Conjecture. Guessing.

Not much to go on to do much other than "wait and see", is there? Will it blow over and be gone by Spring? Just the beginning?

Will the China shutdown slow the world economy? What is at stake, if anything?

Do you have any sort of an opportunistic venture? We don't know, YET. But it is rapidly becoming top of mind trending...for now. It could trigger another "cycle", this one a downturn in the world economy, a lower stock market, higher unemployment, or is it more let's sweat that bridge when we get to it?

GordonJ

Hey Gordon,

Can you remember back to that day you created this thread an compare it to today?

Would you have ever thought we would be here?

Work at home niche and some ecoms are booming because of COVID.

Did you have any idea back then we would end up with people pulling guns out over wearing masks during COVID and slapping old guys upside the head for asking them to wear a mask?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/amazon-dr...192607094.html

[Profit Traveler]

We should put Internet Marketers in charge of COVID.

Internet Marketers study insights, trends, we know the huge advantage we have in acting swiftly on that data.

We research what has worked, follow proven paths, not fantasy scenarios, we compare, we invest in best tools to achieve our goals, then we test, test, test.

Internet Marketers know there are scams, rehashed garbage being circulated and manipulation. We do our due diligence and do not fall for all the salesy showmanship sales copy.

Internet Marketers accept everybody's money and treat all potential prospects equally and leave emotions out of the equation.

Under those circumstances, Coronavirus would already be an Old Campaign that went Viral but does not work anymore.

[kenmichaels]

Korean study shows children far from immune, can spread virus

A South Korean study of 91 children who tested positive for the coronavirus found that 22% did not show any symptoms. And one-fifth of the children who showed no symptoms

—and about half of those who did show symptoms — were still shedding virus three weeks after they were infected,

according to the study, which appeared with an editorial in the journal JAMA Pediatrics. Shedding virus means that virus can be detected in a person, though that person may not necessarily be able to infect others.

"If there is anyone on the planet who believes children are immune to the (new) coronavirus, this should lay that to rest," said Roberta DeBiasi, a co-author of the editorial and division chief for infectious diseases at Children's National Hospital in Washington, D.C. "Yes, children can get infected. Yes, children can get sick. Yes, children can spread the virus."
– Mark Johnson, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

[Claude Whitacre]

Originally Posted by Jeffery

So, what are we going to use, CFR or IFR?

I've been thinking about this.

With CFR we have tested cases. Positive results. Those are the figures the CDC and WHO go with.

About IFR...

Where are the numbers coming from? How many people have been tested? I'm assuming more than have been tested for the Coronavirus and got a result.

But how large was the sample that was tested? Are these estimates? Extrapolations from small test samples? If the US has 6 million cases of Covid, and the IFR numbers show there are 10 times as many people that have the antibodies (I think that's what they are tested for), were ten times as many tested? Was it less? More?

I've read a little about this. Mostly the links that were provided here. But my understanding of IFR is sketchy at best.

[Profit Traveler]

Originally Posted by Jeffery

Unfortunately, some people in this thread are just not worthy. Resorting to name calling and belittling people who disagree with others opinions based on facts or no facts is just not worthy.

If I was going to be sent to a deserted island for the rest of my days and was given one choice of anything to bring with me.. it would be the people in this thread that are not worthy.. afterall .. a man has got to eat.

Hilarious.

But the best case scenario would be to have all those on an island together that find it hard to get along with others who are not assimilated into The Borg.

In theory they should all get along. For how many seconds not sure.

[Claude Whitacre]

Originally Posted by Profit Traveler

We should put Internet Marketers in charge of COVID.

Internet Marketers study insights, trends, we know the huge advantage we have in acting swiftly on that data.

We research what has worked, follow proven paths, not fantasy scenarios, we compare, we invest in best tools to achieve our goals, then we test, test, test.

Internet Marketers know there are scams, rehashed garbage being circulated and manipulation. We do our due diligence and do not fall for all the salesy showmanship sales copy.

Internet Marketers accept everybody's money and treat all potential prospects equally and leave emotions out of the equation.

Under those circumstances, Coronavirus would already be an Old Campaign that went Viral but does not work anymore.

Only the best internet marketers (or any marketer) do these things. The vast majority do not, or just pay it lip service.

I can tell you know that.

[Profit Traveler]

Originally Posted by Claude Whitacre

Only the best internet marketers (or any marketer) do these things. The vast majority do not, or just pay it lip service.

I can tell you know that.

"Behind every Great Analogy lurks Reality."

Together we created another cool Quote to add to the millions on Facebook and Pinterest

[Frank Donovan]

Originally Posted by Profit Traveler

We should put Internet Marketers in charge of COVID.

Most savvy internet marketers would have seen their profits rise over the last few months. Why would they change it?

[Jeffery]

Originally Posted by Claude Whitacre

I've been thinking about this.

With CFR we have tested cases. Positive results. Those are the figures the CDC and WHO go with.

About IFR...

Where are the numbers coming from? How many people have been tested? I'm assuming more than have been tested for the Coronavirus and go a result.

But how large was the sample that was tested? Are these estimates? Extrapolations from small test samples? If the US has 6 million cases of Covid, and the IFR numbers show there are 10 times as many people that have the antibodies (I think that's what they are tested for), were ten times as many tested? Was it less? More?

I've read a little about this. Mostly the links that were provided here. But my understanding of IFR is sketchy at best.

Yeah, me too and I know enough about IFR from my service in the military to not use it when it comes to the life and death decision making logic.

[Profit Traveler]

Originally Posted by Frank Donovan

Most savvy internet marketers would have seen their profits rise over the last few months. Why would they change it?

Can not disagree on that point....there has been abundance in opportunity and still is...but then there is

Death, misinformation, more death, violence. Those darn details. But back to money....

[Jeffery]

287 Utah State University students quarantined after Covid-19 found in wastewater from four dorms

CNN September 1, 2020

Excerpt:

(CNN) While schools and universities across the country monitor coronavirus outbreaks with human testing, Utah State University officials announced they've discovered evidence of the virus a different way.

The school found elevated amounts of Covid-19 in wastewater samples collected from four residence halls on campus.

Officials issued a safety alert on Sunday calling for mandatory testing and quarantine of all 287 students living in Rich, Jones, Morgan and Davis on-campus residence halls.

[Kay King]

No other testing samples on campus taken this week show elevated levels of the virus and there are currently no reported positive tests for Covid-19 in the quarantined residence halls, according to a university press release.

The CDC maintains no one has contracted COVID from drinking water. That would indicate that any wastewater being processed is being cleaned completely which is what we would expect.

I can see the wastewater testing as a way to track the virus but I question quarantine of almost 300 students - none of which have tested positive or shown symptoms. Will be interesting to see what results from this new testing method.

[perryny]

Originally Posted by Kay King

I can see the wastewater testing as a way to track the virus but I question quarantine of almost 300 students - none of which have tested positive or shown symptoms. Will be interesting to see what results from this new testing method.

I don't see how you can question quarantining these students.

They know the virus is in those buildings.

Lock those kids down, find who has it, stop the spread.

Aside from closing down the campus completely and sending everyone home and back to zoom classrooms (which I'm betting they will), how else would you possibly handle this?

[Profit Traveler]

Originally Posted by perryny

I don't see how you can question quarantining these students.

They know the virus is in those buildings.

Lock those kids down, find who has it, stop the spread.

Aside from closing down the campus completely and sending everyone home and back to zoom classrooms (which I'm betting they will), how else would you possibly handle this?

Yep, Sending students home to people like grand parents even more scary.

[Kay King]

I don't see how you can question quarantining these students.

The CDC article I read said they were tested - and tested negative. Some schools ARE sending student who test positive...home. Not a great plan BUT if those students are ill they may need to be home for treatment.


I hope they post a followup on that particular 'story' - would like to know how it ends - do some students develop symptoms and, if so, how many - or were the negative tests correct.

[Jeffery]

Originally Posted by Kay King

The CDC article I read said they were tested - and tested negative. Some schools ARE sending student who test positive...home. Not a great plan BUT if those students are ill they may need to be home for treatment.

On the other hand if the students that tested positive are sent home I have to question how many people would be infected that the students come into contact with on the way to their homes? Too many variables come into play that may prove to be a bad idea such as: catching a ride with other students, commercial flights etc.

Originally Posted by Kay King

I hope they post a followup on that particular 'story' - would like to know how it ends - do some students develop symptoms and, if so, how many - or were the negative tests correct.

In any event, we know that there have been numerous discoveries and changes since the beginning of the pandemic, so it seems to me to be on the safe side and quarantine the students to protect them from each other and protect the community at large.

To err on the side of caution.. To act in the least risky manner in a situation in which one is uncertain about the consequences.

Plus, the students were going to attend college which means they were not going anywhere other than college classes, so a 14 day quarantine is not much different.

[Jeffery]

Originally Posted by Kay King

<snip>
I hope they post a followup on that particular 'story' - would like to know how it ends - do some students develop symptoms and, if so, how many - or were the negative tests correct.

4 students - so far - test positive for the coronavirus at Utah State University dorms
The Salt Lake Tribune Published: 4 hours ago Updated: 46 minutes ago

Excerpts:

Four students have tested positive for the coronavirus - so far - at Utah State University’s dorms, according to the first set of results to come back since hundreds of residents there were quarantined this week.

The school released the numbers Thursday after about 80% of the students in the impacted dorm buildings reported the outcome of their tests. Complete results are expected by the end of the week.

With the majority of results in from that testing, about half of the students have been released from quarantine. Wheeler said that includes those living in 29 suites across the affected buildings.

Coronavirus updates: 504 cases, 4 deaths; 4 students positive among quarantined dorms at USU
By KSL.com Staff | Updated - Sep. 3, 2020 at 3:35 p.m. | Posted - Sep. 3, 2020 at 1:51 p.m

SALT LAKE CITY — Here are the latest updates on COVID-19 from Utah and around the world.

Excerpts:

4 students test positive among 287 students quarantined at Utah State

Official USU Tweet..
Utah State University has received test results from more than 80% of the students in the four residence halls who were tested for COVID-19 on Sunday. As of noon on Sept. 3, there are four students who have reported positive results.

Utah State University has released just over half of the four dorms quarantined after wastewater samples revealed elevated traces of COVID-19.
Four students have self-reported positive cases of the novel coronavirus, USU news director Emilie Wheeler told KSL. Those students will remain in quarantine and under medical care.

More than 80% of test results have been returned to the university, the bulk of which reported negative results from the 287 students living in the four dormitories. Wheeler said 29 suites - just over half of the quarantined rooms - have been reopened.

A few students returned home to self-quarantine, Wheeler said, but those numbers only impacted about a dozen students. Additionally, several suites are under quarantine while awaiting just one or two students to self-report their tests, while other roommates have already confirmed to test negative.

[Profit Traveler]

This Pandemic Era is embarrassing if you feel you have the most influence and the most power to make change, the most resources, and previously viewed as the guide to follow for success.

There are locations viewed as Successful in this fight...guess who is not on that list.

[Profit Traveler]

Super Hero News!

Dwayne The Rock Johnson /Black Adam and his entire family tested positive for COVID

The Batman (Robert Pattinson has tested positive for COVID.

[Kay King]

Jeffrey - thanks for that info - had not seen it


So the testing of wastewater on campus identified potential risk areas - and testing those identified cases? Makes sense...but the practice of many university who are sending 'positive' cases HOME doesn't make sense if the person is asymptomatic. But then I guess you have 'what if they get really sick'......conundrums everywhere you look.


Looking at daily numbers, US seems to have stabilized somewhat - numbers not really going down much but not going up....and that is WITH many schools and universities and businesses re-opening. My guess is this will be the 'new normal' for a while - re-open more businesses - have more in-person contact and we'll see spikes that then decline gradually within 2-3 weeks. Not sure there is any way around having that happen.

[Jeffery]

Originally Posted by Kay King

Jeffrey - thanks for that info - had not seen it


So the testing of wastewater on campus identified potential risk areas - and testing those identified cases? Makes sense...but the practice of many university who are sending 'positive' cases HOME doesn't make sense if the person is asymptomatic. But then I guess you have 'what if they get really sick'......conundrums everywhere you look.


Looking at daily numbers, US seems to have stabilized somewhat - numbers not really going down much but not going up....and that is WITH many schools and universities and businesses re-opening. My guess is this will be the 'new normal' for a while - re-open more businesses - have more in-person contact and we'll see spikes that then decline gradually within 2-3 weeks. Not sure there is any way around having that happen.

Agreed. The numbers will fluctuate - that is a given. We just need to keep in mind that that the 2 to 3 weeks it takes for a more or less definitive result per person will vary from circumstance to circumstance. So whatever the numbers are posted today will be changed by the end of the 2 to 3 weeks, i.e. spikes and declines, more spikes and more declines. Numbers stabilized today, spikes tomorrow, more stabilization next week, more declines next week.


To me it is akin to a roller coaster ride.


Until there is a cure for this virus(es) we can only hold on tight for the ride and do our personal best to protect home and hearth.

[1Bryan]

Originally Posted by Claude Whitacre

I've been thinking about this.

With CFR we have tested cases. Positive results. Those are the figures the CDC and WHO go with.

About IFR...

Where are the numbers coming from? How many people have been tested? I'm assuming more than have been tested for the Coronavirus and got a result.

But how large was the sample that was tested? Are these estimates? Extrapolations from small test samples? If the US has 6 million cases of Covid, and the IFR numbers show there are 10 times as many people that have the antibodies (I think that's what they are tested for), were ten times as many tested? Was it less? More?

I've read a little about this. Mostly the links that were provided here. But my understanding of IFR is sketchy at best.

Here's a good link that shows the recent sero results in India and the ones done in April in London and NYC

https://thewire.in/health/delhi-mumb...survey-results

What all sero surveys have shown is that the prevalence of Covid spread waaay further than what Confirmed Cases show.

It depends on the area. But anywhere from 5x to 25x and higher. And IFR can be below 0.1 in Delhi and as high as 0.8 in NYC by the April tally.

And to make it more complicated -- each strain of Covid is different. For example -- the strain NY/NJ/Mass got hit hard with in March/April is the Euro strain that hit Italy, Spain, and France ...

But also those months the nursing homes were getting hit super hard. Which kinda skews death totals.

Good link for that: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/08/w...s-elderly.html

Overall though, the consensus among most epidemiologists, outside the ones they put on TV for shock value ...

Seems to be it is NOT nearly as lethal as first thought.

And CDC uses IFR: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

From the link:

The Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR) has been added to Table 1 as a new parameter value for disease severity, replacing the Symptomatic Case Fatality Ratio and the Symptomatic Case Hospitalization Ratio. IFR takes into account both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases and may therefore be a more directly measurable parameter for disease severity for COVID-19.

P.S. There's way more to "unpack". For example, in NY, the first 10K deaths or so? Like less than 2% was under age 40. Which is why countries with much younger populations that got "hit" with Covid appeared to be "doing better".

You have to look at the data DEEPLY and most barely take a superficial scan. Even so-called "journalists".

[Profit Traveler]

Not adjusting strategy is not a new normal it's an intentional failure.

Large unmasked events (especially when you can not contain the hot spots you already have ) is intentional super spreading.

Insanity also needs a vaccine.

[perryny]

Originally Posted by Jeffery

Agreed. The numbers will fluctuate - that is a given.

What's a given is that if you put large crowds of people together without masks, the numbers will go up. Dramatically.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states

Also, less of a given, but it sure looks like fact is if everyone wears a mask, particularly in public indoor spaces, keeps themselves and surfaces clean, and people keep their distance from each other, life can fairly quickly return to normal.

The only reason this is and will continue to be a roller coaster is that a very large portion of our population loves themselves a damn good roller coaster ride.


added: And these guys definitely think roller coasters are for pussies.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...em/5709042002/

[whateverpedia]

Originally Posted by Profit Traveler

Insanity also needs a vaccine.

Charles Darwin has a theory that might render a vaccine for insanity unnecessary.

[Profit Traveler]

Originally Posted by whateverpedia

Charles Darwin has a theory that might render a vaccine for insanity unnecessary.

"It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change."
"It is not the strongest of the species that survives, but rather, that which is most adaptable to change."
- Charles Darwin

Great Avatar by the way...was that a Time Magazine Cover?

[Declan O Flaherty]

Originally Posted by Profit Traveler

"It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change."
"It is not the strongest of the species that survives, but rather, that which is most adaptable to change."
- Charles Darwin

Yes. The people who adapt; not the people who stick to a story that has been consistently debunked.

What is it now, 6% death rate from Covid?

Isn't it amazing how the deadly virus story keeps falling apart as more time goes by?

Peru now has the highest death rate. They had the strictest lock downs. While Sweden is now down to 11th in the death rate toll, and magically keeps dropping because they defeated the virus by not locking down. Same as they do every flu season.

It's almost like the lock downs spread the death count out over time, isn't it?

Here are 500 conspiracy theorists...
More than 500 German doctors & scientists have signed on as representatives of an organization called the "Corona Extra-Parliamentary Inquiry Committee" to investigate what's happening on our planet with regards to COVID-19...

https://www.collective-evolution.com...s-on-covid-19/

This conspiracy theorist is a real nutcase...
Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi, a specialist in microbiology and one of the most cited research scientists in German history shares his thoughts on the measures that are being taken to combat the new coronavirus...

Implementation of the current draconian measures that are so extremely restrict fundamental rights can only be justified if there is reason to fear that a truly, exceptionally dangerous virus is threatening us. Do any scientifically sound data exist to support this contention for COVID-19? I assert that the answer is simply, no.

More weirdo's here...
Physicians For Informed Consent Say Infection Fatality Rate of COVID-19 Is 0.26 Percent
https://www.collective-evolution.com...-0-26-percent/

Or this tinfoil hat wearing crackpot...
John P. A. Ioannidis, a professor of medicine and epidemiology at Stanford University has said that the infection fatality rate is close to 0 percent for people under the age of 45 years old.
https://www.collective-evolution.com...ord-professor/

Don't bother going to your fact checkers...
https://www.collective-evolution.com...ed-censorship/

https://www.collective-evolution.com...ss-conference/

I see a couple of you are talking about 'spikes' in cases. Well of course there are spikes, silly. That is an inevitability when you hold back a virus and slowly spread it out over time. Hence the reason everyone else is spiking, and Sweden isn't.

Besides, 'cases' are completely irrelevant. They weren't talking about 'cases' at the height of the pandemic, were they? Of course not. They already had something to keep people in fear at that stage. Now, with the deaths falling dramatically all around the world, the new fear narrative, is CASES. And masks, of course. Which is really funny since they told you 3 months ago they didn't work.

Science moves so fast in these troubling times, eh? It's hard to keep a good lie going it seems. But I'm sure you'll all give it a good go.

[Profit Traveler]

Originally Posted by Declan O Flaherty

Yes. The people who adapt; not the people who stick to a story that has been consistently debunked.

What is it now, 6% death rate from Covid?

Isn't it amazing how the deadly virus story keeps falling apart as more time goes by?

Peru now has the highest death rate. They had the strictest lock downs. While Sweden is now down to 11th in the death rate toll, and magically keeps dropping because they defeated the virus by not locking down. Same as they do every flu season.

It's almost like the lock downs spread the death count out over time, isn't it?

Here are 500 conspiracy theorists...
More than 500 German doctors & scientists have signed on as representatives of an organization called the "Corona Extra-Parliamentary Inquiry Committee" to investigate what's happening on our planet with regards to COVID-19...

https://www.collective-evolution.com...s-on-covid-19/

This conspiracy theorist is a real nutcase...
Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi, a specialist in microbiology and one of the most cited research scientists in German history shares his thoughts on the measures that are being taken to combat the new coronavirus...

Implementation of the current draconian measures that are so extremely restrict fundamental rights can only be justified if there is reason to fear that a truly, exceptionally dangerous virus is threatening us. Do any scientifically sound data exist to support this contention for COVID-19? I assert that the answer is simply, no.

More weirdo's here...
Physicians For Informed Consent Say Infection Fatality Rate of COVID-19 Is 0.26 Percent
https://www.collective-evolution.com...-0-26-percent/

Or this tinfoil hat wearing crackpot...
John P. A. Ioannidis, a professor of medicine and epidemiology at Stanford University has said that the infection fatality rate is close to 0 percent for people under the age of 45 years old.
https://www.collective-evolution.com...ord-professor/

Don't bother going to your fact checkers...
https://www.collective-evolution.com...ed-censorship/

https://www.collective-evolution.com...ss-conference/

I see a couple of you are talking about 'spikes' in cases. Well of course there are spikes, silly. That is an inevitability when you hold back a virus and slowly spread it out over time. Hence the reason everyone else is spiking, and Sweden isn't.

Besides, 'cases' are completely irrelevant. They weren't talking about 'cases' at the height of the pandemic, were they? Of course not. They already had something to keep people in fear at that stage. Now, with the deaths falling dramatically all around the world, the new fear narrative, is CASES. And masks, of course. Which is really funny since they told you 3 months ago they didn't work.

Science moves so fast in these troubling times, eh? It's hard to keep a good lie going it seems. But I'm sure you'll all give it a good go.

Debunked by whom? Fauci? The lead scientist?

Herman Cain also did not take COVID seriously before he died of COVID...same for church ministers etc, there is a pretty long list. Real people are going to real funerals and one is one too many when it can be avoided.

Who was that other COVID expert debunking COVID? Oh yea, a former game show host whose son got COVID then he changed his tune. But his rhetoric could have had someone let their guards down and got infected. All the couch chair experts are super spreaders that take no responsibility.

I am pretty tolerant we all should be. If someone is a Flat Earther more power to them, hope they don't fall off the edge.

But with COVID, one persons willful ignorance could get some people facing serious life and death consequences.

[DWolfe]

Read last week the DOJ is looking into nursing home deaths. This raid took place this week. Could some of these deaths been prevented ?

"Federal and state investigators raided a Pennsylvania nursing home Thursday where hundreds of residents and staff members tested positive for coronavirus and dozens have died, authorities said."

"state inspectors warned of lax sanitary conditions last year that could lead to the spread of infection and diseases."

"State Department of Health data show that 447 residents and staff members tested positive for the disease, and 73 people died."

Link to article - https://www.aol.com/article/news/202...died/24611239/

[Odahh]

Originally Posted by DWolfe

Read last week the DOJ is looking into nursing home deaths. This raid took place this week. Could some of these deaths been prevented ?

"Federal and state investigators raided a Pennsylvania nursing home Thursday where hundreds of residents and staff members tested positive for coronavirus and dozens have died, authorities said."

"state inspectors warned of lax sanitary conditions last year that could lead to the spread of infection and diseases."

"State Department of Health data show that 447 residents and staff members tested positive for the disease, and 73 people died."

Link to article - https://www.aol.com/article/news/202...died/24611239/

the years is 2020 we are going through world wide event that most of the planet has to figure out as we go along.. but of course ..the entrire world learned it was a bad idea to not protect nursing homes from watching what happened in several US states ..

but of course that should not have happened because it is so obvious how bad of an idea it was .. after so many people died .. hindsight being 2020 ..

plenty of experts on what should not have been done based on the information that could only have been gained from it being done so badly ..

[1Bryan]

Originally Posted by Odahh

the years is 2020 we are going through world wide event that most of the planet has to figure out as we go along.. but of course ..the entrire world learned it was a bad idea to not protect nursing homes from watching what happened in several US states ..

Maybe you missed this about Europe in April, 2020
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...111_story.html

Or this about Spain in March, 2020:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/w...ing-homes.html

Nursing homes got ravaged all around the world. And because Covid hit Europe first, it happened there first.

Can't always dump on the US.

This one too -- Canada, May 2020:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...ovid-19-282605

P.S. To add some context to nursing homes:

The median life expectancy once one enters a nursing home is only 5 months.
https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2010/08/98...gth-stay-death

So as uncomfortable and “icky” as it might be --

These really are people in the last months of their lives. Covid or no Covid.

[Princess Balestra]

Tellya, if'n I weren't so factyooly lame, I would bend the rules simply to suit my libido.

But Corona got plenty to say 'bout all things blendyjuicy in its Darwinian plan to stop all its potential hosts creatin' more hosts.

My bestie Amy is real concerned for my safety.

"You're so antsy these days ... why do you keep biting stuff?"


tbh, much as I love pleasure bein' visited 'pon my ass from wherevah, I ain't too keen 'bout lung-rottin' joims findin' their way down my throat c/o Route One.

We get all kindsa bac & viral stuff gowin' round, in an' outta select holes, demographic by demographic, all kindsa seasonal ways — which is why, normal times, we weigh up the risks, spray usselves with the necessary wuzzah flooids, an' partake of mortal joys till our skin sings — but nuthin' done the global smackdown since 1918 (when evrywan wore cardboard pants), so ima dumpin' all shades of 'this isn't actually happening' into the same drosshole as "my innermost thoughts are beamed directly into my soul by a giant, celestial banana whose name runs to 15,864 syllables".

Tellya, next guy I snog gonna be sucked of all life.

Meantimes, I maxin' out on the spirityool powah of Yogah For One, learnin' to time how diffrent pasta performs in boilin' water against a slidin' scale of edibility, an' self-manicurin' musself down to the shouldah blades.

Ha!

Could be the perfect moment to slip my erotic fiction empire between the uncertainties of the globe like an undeniably desirable sensation.

[Dan Riffle]

Originally Posted by Profit Traveler

Debunked by whom? Fauci? The lead scientist?

Herman Cain also did not take COVID seriously before he died of COVID...same for church ministers etc, there is a pretty long list. Real people are going to real funerals and one is one too many when it can be avoided.

Who was that other COVID expert debunking COVID? Oh yea, a former game show host whose son got COVID then he changed his tune. But his rhetoric could have had someone let their guards down and got infected. All the couch chair experts are super spreaders that take no responsibility.

I am pretty tolerant we all should be. If someone is a Flat Earther more power to them, hope they don't fall off the edge.

But with COVID, one persons willful ignorance could get some people facing serious life and death consequences.

People keep prattling on about the death rate acting like it isn't high enough to worry about. If I gave these people a revolver with a 17 round mag (bear with me...) and told them the gun was loaded with 1 bullet, how many would put that gun to their temple and pull the trigger?

But wait! There's more!

What if I told them that even if they pulled the trigger and dodged the bullet, they're now likely to develop a life-long heart problem or lung problem?

How many would pull the trigger then?

What's that?

Hmm... yeah, you're right. The same number because they just think I'm making things up.

I just can't understand how so many people prefer to err on the side of recklessness when caution costs them so little, yet gains everyone so much.

This is a blowback from Freedom of Speech and how we receive and analyze information. And I'll be the first to admit I have no idea how to fix it.

[1Bryan]

Originally Posted by Dan Riffle

People keep prattling on about the death rate acting like it isn't high enough to worry about. If I gave these people a revolver with a 17 round mag (bear with me...) and told them the gun was loaded with 1 bullet, how many would put that gun to their temple and pull the trigger?

But wait! There's more!

What if I told them that even if they pulled the trigger and dodged the bullet, they're now likely to develop a life-long heart problem or lung problem?

How many would pull the trigger then?

What's that?

Hmm... yeah, you're right. The same number because they just think I'm making things up.

I just can't understand how so many people prefer to err on the side of recklessness when caution costs them so little, yet gains everyone so much.

This is a blowback from Freedom of Speech and how we receive and analyze information. And I'll be the first to admit I have no idea how to fix it.

Okay so the risk is not 1 out of 17. Try again. I listen to medical podcasts that lean hard left.

They are not anti maskers or anti Trump.

And nobody talks about death rates that high. The high end right now is 0.65 IFR and low end is below 0.2%.

That'd be about 1 bullet out of 500 or 1 bullet out of 167.

And there's a reward at the end of every empty chamber -- Life, love, experiences, happiness, etc, etc.

Come again.

And little cost?

Read this: https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/07/1068601

Maybe not cost to YOU personally. But cost to the world at large for sure. Think outside of yourself.

Also this -- Warriors or Worriers? You choose.

Life is risk. A life well lived means you faced lots of risk. She said no? She broke my heart? That ad didn't work? That business failed?

That's being a Warrior.

I know more about Covid than every single scaredy cat I have encountered. Which is why I'm not scared.

Fear is NOT a virtue. It's being afraid. That's it.

[whateverpedia]

Originally Posted by Dan Riffle

And I'll be the first to admit I have no idea how to fix it.

Facebook cleaning up its act would go a long way.

[whateverpedia]

Originally Posted by 1Bryan

Fear is NOT a virtue.

Fear is one of nature's survival mechanisms. It prevents us from doing all sorts of dangerous, stupid shyte.