How to calculate EXPECTED SALES?

by samah
9 replies
Hi,
I need your help please, if i have a an affiliate offer that's converts at 17% and that and it has generated 2000+ sales , the average sale is $39.19 the question is,

How many sales I am going to generate if i send 100 leads to that offer?

Kindly share the formula how did you calculated?


Best regards,
Samah
#calculate #expected #sales
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  • Profile picture of the author Frank Donovan
    Originally Posted by samah View Post

    How many sales I am going to generate if i send 100 leads to that offer?
    One factor you've left out is the quality of the leads. That 17% conversion figure depends on where those leads came from. A primed target base, for example from a responsive email list or from previous buyers, will tend to convert better than an ad - even one that's well targeted.
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    • Profile picture of the author samah
      Originally Posted by Frank Donovan View Post

      One factor you've left out is the quality of the leads. That 17% conversion figure depends on where those leads came from. A primed target base, for example from a responsive email list or from previous buyers, will tend to convert better than an ad - even one that's well targeted.
      Let's Say from a responsive list
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      • Profile picture of the author Frank Donovan
        Originally Posted by samah View Post

        Let's Say from a responsive list
        Unless it's the exact same list that recorded the 17% conversions, you'll have to test it yourself to determine the outcome. The problem is that 100 leads is a small database. You could get one or two sales, or strike it lucky and get double figures.

        Why not just go ahead and see how you do?
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  • Profile picture of the author dave_hermansen
    It would seem to me that with 2,000 sales already and a track record of converting at 17%, you've got a pretty good track record to rely on. It would mean you had about 11,765 leads that generated those 2,000 orders - a pretty darned solid sample set!

    So, assuming the type of leads in your 100 sample are the same as the ones from the past, the math could not possibly be more simple. 17% of 100 is 17 (I really don't think you need the math for that demonstrated).

    However, as Frank Donovan pointed out, you could get zero sales from that 100. Then, the next 100 might produce 34. It's an average, so there are no guarantees for a smaller lead set.

    I guess I'm missing some dark, mysterious part of this equation!
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  • Profile picture of the author Randall Magwood
    Originally Posted by samah View Post

    Hi,
    I need your help please, if i have a an affiliate offer that's converts at 17% and that and it has generated 2000+ sales , the average sale is $39.19 the question is,

    How many sales I am going to generate if i send 100 leads to that offer?

    Kindly share the formula how did you calculated?


    Best regards,
    Samah
    Where are you getting the leads from? How did the affiliate offer convert at 17%? Direct link, email subscriber, pre-sell page? There are more variables that need to be considered before you can have an accurate formula. You should contact the product vendor.
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  • Profile picture of the author Chris-
    As others are saying, it very much depends on the leads, and even the same type of leads can vary considerably.

    For example, for email lists, the industry standard income per subscriber per month used to be $1 per month. Since webinars are being used, an average might be $4. Yet one list-owner I know of, claims $11.25 from his list.

    And the same for FB ads . . . some people using FB ads with webinars are getting 8X ROI, yet a lot of people are losing money and quitting because for them, FB ads "don't work".

    And yes, 100 leads is too small a sample to test realistically. Just for comparison, the ideal number of leads for the FaceBook ad algorithm to create a good look-alike audience is said to be 3,000.

    Results can also vary at different times . . . in the current virus situation, some IM webinars are getting better results than ever, but a few are getting worse results, so it depends on many factors, which can change over time in various ways.

    You need a real test, with more than 1,000 leads, to get accurate results.

    Chris
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  • Profile picture of the author spartan14
    You need a bigger volume of traffic to calculate conversions ,i would say at least 1000 leads . But if you said that it converts around 17% then around this number you should calculate also
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  • It will depend on the quality of the lead, is it a MQL Lead, SQL Lead?
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  • Profile picture of the author teamhai
    Dont think will be able to calculate it. We need more info for it. The quality of leads really matters, if its of high quality and behaves similar to what you mentioned which is 17% conversion. You can expect 17 sales, but 100 leads is small amount of sample.
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