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When to switch-off a campaign?

by pgreenwo
3 replies
This has been bugging me for a while, and I'm hoping someone can answer it, or steer me in the right direction. I know that for some this is 'analysis paralysis', or over-intellectual, but I think it's important.

Here's the question: When should I switch off a test campaign?

Say I've had 100 clicks, at a cost of $ 0.35 each, that yielded one sale giving me $15 revenue - is the sample size big enough for me to say that I am unlikely to make money? I know, I've lost $20 so far...but it's only been 100 clicks (or 'trials').

Another way to ask this more accurately is: What is the probability that I will break-even or better, based on the results and size of this sample?

(I'm sure that someone out there remembers how to work binomial distributions...I'm sure there are plenty of 'rules-of-thumb', but I'm looking for the math)
#breakeven #campaign #switchoff
  • Profile picture of the author jbode
    I would say after 100 clicks if you're not close to breaking even, then stop the campaign or make major changes...

    if you're making $15 for spending $35 you should consider adding an oto... and/or backend profit potentials (a list) if it's not your product I would ditch the campaign and go try something else.
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  • Profile picture of the author CDarklock
    Originally Posted by pgreenwo View Post

    What is the probability that I will break-even or better, based on the results and size of this sample?
    You only have one data point. It's impossible to calculate anything with any level of confidence.
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  • Profile picture of the author tryinhere
    Originally Posted by pgreenwo View Post

    This has been bugging me for a while, and I'm hoping someone can answer it,

    but I'm looking for the math)
    your looking at your own answer, based on exactly what you have written the maths is exactly at this point, you have 100 clicks for a $15 return that in old maths numbers tells me the most you can bid right now and break even is .15c not .35c

    adjust your bid downwards a little towards or at the break even point for the next 100 clicks and see if you can improve your conversion rate.
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