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Traffic projection

by matt5409
16 replies
Hi all

when putting together a plan for a new website, I begin by doing keyword research. I choose around 15 keywords, I then add up the total search volume for all my keywords.

At this point I try my best to estimate potential traffic should I reach the middle-top of page 1 for each of my keywords. This, admittedly, is a stab in the dark. To make sure I don't overestimate I quarter the total search volume to estimate potential monthly traffic.

How do you do this? Would you consider this a reasonably accurate way of speculating on how much traffic is possible?

Thanks!
#projection #traffic
  • Profile picture of the author Andyhenry
    Use PPC to get the actual amount of traffic for those spots - no guesswork needed.
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    • Profile picture of the author matt5409
      Originally Posted by Andyhenry View Post

      Use PPC to get the actual amount of traffic for those spots - no guesswork needed.
      how do you mean - i use the adwords tool and i'm talking about SEO (no guarantees)
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      • Profile picture of the author Richard Van
        Originally Posted by matt5409 View Post

        how do you mean - i use the adwords tool and i'm talking about SEO (no guarantees)
        I think what Andy means is just send the amount of traffic you require to the site via PPC.

        These images may help you figure out what you want to know more accurately.

        The top ones a heat map of where people look the most. This is only one test and may not be completely accurate but it gives you an idea.


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      • Profile picture of the author Andyhenry
        Originally Posted by matt5409 View Post

        how do you mean - i use the adwords tool and i'm talking about SEO (no guarantees)
        Richard was right.

        What I mean is - rather than taking random people's word for what traffic to expect - set up a PPC campaign targeting the keywords you intend to seo for - and then see which ones actually get traffic and which ones turn into buyers.

        THEN focus on the ones that will get you the best results.

        People seem to think PPC is only for people with big budgets and money to throw away constantly.

        PPC is excellent for testing where to focus your free efforts.

        Unless you KNOW which keywords/phrases you can turn into money - all the lucky traffic in the world is unlikely to make you any money.
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        • Profile picture of the author SamuelJ
          Originally Posted by Andyhenry View Post

          Richard was right.

          What I mean is - rather than taking random people's word for what traffic to expect - set up a PPC campaign targeting the keywords you intend to seo for - and then see which ones actually get traffic and which ones turn into buyers.

          THEN focus on the ones that will get you the best results.

          People seem to think PPC is only for people with big budgets and money to throw away constantly.

          PPC is excellent for testing where to focus your free efforts.

          Unless you KNOW which keywords/phrases you can turn into money - all the lucky traffic in the world is unlikely to make you any money.
          Very good point that we should take note of.

          Matt if you are using the Google Keyword tool, use exact
          match and then multiply by 40%. If i'm not using MS and
          just want a quick check with GKWT I find 40% of exact
          to be very close once you rank in the top 3
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        • Profile picture of the author matt5409
          Originally Posted by Andyhenry View Post

          Richard was right.

          What I mean is - rather than taking random people's word for what traffic to expect - set up a PPC campaign targeting the keywords you intend to seo for - and then see which ones actually get traffic and which ones turn into buyers.

          THEN focus on the ones that will get you the best results.

          People seem to think PPC is only for people with big budgets and money to throw away constantly.

          PPC is excellent for testing where to focus your free efforts.

          Unless you KNOW which keywords/phrases you can turn into money - all the lucky traffic in the world is unlikely to make you any money.
          ah right, yea that makes sense. these are new, test sites as i've only been into affiliate marketing for a couple of weeks. so as yet i dont feel comfortable putting ANY money into it. i might scout around for one of those adwords vouchers though...
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          • Profile picture of the author Andyhenry
            Originally Posted by matt5409 View Post

            i dont feel comfortable putting ANY money into it.
            I can understand that but in reality it's a false economy. The longer you try to do everything for free, the less effective you'll be and you can waste a LOT of time trying to do it all without spending any money. And at least if you find that using PPC you get traffic but it doesn't convert - you won't waste months of your life trying to get that traffic and end up back here saying "my site gets lots of traffic but no sales - what's going on?"

            This is THE MOST ACCURATE way there is.


            Andy
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            • Profile picture of the author Devid Farah
              Hi Matt,

              There is a more accurate way to judge how much traffic you will get from search engines.

              Use a tool such as Google’s Keyword Tool to determine how much traffic the keyword gets each month.

              If you reach the number one spot for that key word you can expect to get at least 50% of that traffic.

              For every spot down you are on the result page, you will get ten percent less traffic.

              This method is very accurate and can help you pinpoint exactly how much traffic you should expect.
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              • Profile picture of the author matt5409
                Originally Posted by Devid Farah View Post

                Hi Matt,

                There is a more accurate way to judge how much traffic you will get from search engines.

                Use a tool such as Google's Keyword Tool to determine how much traffic the keyword gets each month.

                If you reach the number one spot for that key word you can expect to get at least 50% of that traffic.

                For every spot down you are on the result page, you will get ten percent less traffic.

                This method is very accurate and can help you pinpoint exactly how much traffic you should expect.
                Thanks for your reply, my projects are based on the keywords tool. I quartered the numbers roughly expecting to hit 4/5 on page 1 for each keyword.
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            • Profile picture of the author matt5409
              Originally Posted by Andyhenry View Post

              I can understand that but in reality it's a false economy. The longer you try to do everything for free, the less effective you'll be and you can waste a LOT of time trying to do it all without spending any money. And at least if you find that using PPC you get traffic but it doesn't convert - you won't waste months of your life trying to get that traffic and end up back here saying "my site gets lots of traffic but no sales - what's going on?"

              This is THE MOST ACCURATE way there is.


              Andy
              I work as an SEO. I'm also a twitter addict - I don't need to use PPC to draw large amounts of quality traffic.

              There is just no way i'm going to part with money on an affiliate site when I've only been in this game for a matter of weeks. I'm jumping in both feet first SEO and content wise, but I'm not putting money into the equation until I see some results.
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  • Profile picture of the author Neil M
    I usually figure on about 15-20% of the total search if I get into the top 3...I have heard a lot of different things but that has been my experience. I think your right to always do your numbers on the low end, if it turns out to be more that's just better but at least you won't be sorely disappointed.
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  • Profile picture of the author matt5409
    great advice guys, thanks, especially Richard for providing those heatmap graphics - dont know why i've never bothered to look this up before!
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  • Profile picture of the author imediazone
    Banned
    I choose only one keyword and that is the keyword that has the best traffic and less competition, usually succeed in 3-4 days getting it in the first page. But i repeat is the keyword with less competition.
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    • Profile picture of the author Richard Van
      Originally Posted by imediazone View Post

      I choose only one keyword and that is the keyword that has the best traffic and less competition, usually succeed in 3-4 days getting it in the first page. But i repeat is the keyword with less competition.
      Hi,

      The question is actually about the amount of traffic the OP should expect at various positions on Google.
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  • Profile picture of the author DMCAPROS
    Google Adwords tool is a alright way to estimate traffic for specific keywords.
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  • Profile picture of the author Bingo123
    I just use a keyword tool and take that as a rough guide. There is no way to tell for sure because even if you rank for your keywords that you want and get that traffic, you will also get traffic for all sorts of long-tail keywords that you hadn't even thought of.
    I've noticed a trend with my websites that when they are only a few weeks old, I start getting traffic from Google for all sorts of funny phrases that I didn't even try to go for. Eventually after about 2-3 months I start ranking for the actual keywords I'm going for and start getting the 'money traffic'. I still get lots of other traffic though, so you can't really predict anything.
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