Sharpen your instincts

In another thread, a poster made the comment: Some people thought that was over the top. It's really not, although it's also not likely to be strictly true.

Now, it's entirely possible that his internal editor has him believing he's right all the time. It's easy for vague feelings to be explained afterward, when there's data to fit into the equation.

It's very common, actually. A normal function of the way the brain processes information. (For an explanation of the process, in the event that you find these things even remotely interesting, see Daniel C. Dennett's "Consciousness Explained.")

This post isn't about the technical stuff. Most people don't care about that, and they don't really need to. On the other hand, improving one's intuition and the accuracy of one's judgment is always a good thing.

Here's a way to do that.

Every time you have a feeling about how something will turn out, or a hunch, or a flash of intuition, write it down. Be as specific as you can about what the hunch is, and why you believe it will work out that way.

By writing them down, you circumvent your internal editor, which can actually change how you remember things that happened in the past. As in, completely change them, so that the original no longer ever "happened," as far as you're able to tell.

Then, when the situation is resolved, go back and check your hunches against what really happened. You'll get a much clearer idea of how accurate your instincts are.

You will also find them improving over time. Often, in not much time at all.

This works. I was once in a business where a 65-70% accuracy rate on one judgment call was considered excellent. A friend suggested I do the exercise I just described for three weeks. I did and, from the end of those 3 weeks until I left the business, my accuracy rate was better than 95%.

That's not bragging. Quite the contrary, in fact. In every process where I've applied that, I've had significant improvements - but so has every other person I know who's done it honestly. And it is almost always a matter of focusing the brain on the real causes of results, which generally lie in doing the basics right.

It makes you stop kidding yourself, and it rewards you for recognizing reality.

Try it for a while. I think you'll find it helps.


Paul