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Why is Google's traffic estimator so messed up?

by pj413
13 replies
I believe there is truly something wrong with the Google traffic estimator. I've spent countless hours researching a particular niche; the niche that I've chosen is very popular among its community and is creating quite a buzz right now. The keywords that I found on Google keyword tool, gets a pretty good amount of exact searches. My keywords are all very specific to my product. I'm selling an "How to make..." video, so my keywords have a "how to make......" phrase in them with different variations. There isn't much advertising competition, but the estimated average CPC ranges from $0.29 to $0.83 per click. My competition is pretty small with a total of 99,000 exact ("......") pages found on Google.

So here's my problem, I went to check out the Google traffic estimator. So I filled in my main keyword that receives 15,000 searches per month, and to my surprise it said that I will get an estimated 10 clicks per day, within the first 1-3 ad positions. So I changed my suggested CPC max to $10.00 dollars per click, and my daily budget to $50,000.00 a day. What did I get? A measly 11 clicks per day. I don't understand what's up with this system, the exact monthly searches for my keyword is 15,000 per month, but my estimated clicks per day are 11. The competition is easy, and there aren't many affiliates selling in this niche. So what's the problem?
#google #someting #wrong
  • Profile picture of the author Darth Executor
    I'm not sure how google estimates traffic. Maybe the audience doesn't click on ads. Maybe google judges based on how well the ads that are there do. if the ads are written by retards then they won't get a lot of clicks and google assumes you won't either.
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  • Profile picture of the author Mangozoom
    I think using adwords is the best way to check search counts on Google. On a number of occasions i have researched terms that look like they are going to generate decent traffic and checked with a PPC campaign to discover huge differences.

    Before writing content, articles and doing a bunch of other stuff ... this can be a real time saver

    John
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  • Profile picture of the author pj413
    So if I go with PPC, my ad will appear on the right side bar, or will it show up in the main middle section? I really think this product will do well, because people are searching for this specific information.
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    • Profile picture of the author Johnson Tay
      Gosh, you thought the traffic estimator is accurate? C'mon!
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  • Profile picture of the author Houcem Rihane
    If you want accuracy then use WTracker.
    Google's tool doesn't deliver all the info google has.
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    • Profile picture of the author Nick Brighton
      Originally Posted by pj413 View Post

      I really think this product will do well, because people are searching for this specific information.
      Regardless of your estimated cost per clicks per day, or anything else for that matter, have you checked that people are buying solutions to this problem?

      Remember, people don't automatically expect to pay for information they are looking for online.

      Before you throw away tons of ad spend, I would check to see whether there are products on the market that sell the same solution that you are going to try and sell.

      In other words, "people searching for this specific information" is a pretty vague stab in the dark to assume that there's potential for you to make money here.


      Hope this helps,
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      • Profile picture of the author pj413
        Originally Posted by Nick Brighton View Post

        Regardless of your estimated cost per clicks per day, or anything else for that matter, have you checked that people are buying solutions to this problem?

        Remember, people don't automatically expect to pay for information they are looking for online.

        Before you throw away tons of ad spend, I would check to see whether there are products on the market that sell the same solution that you are going to try and sell.

        In other words, "people searching for this specific information" is a pretty vague stab in the dark to assume that there's potential for you to make money here.


        Hope this helps,
        There are only two products out at the moment within the first 4 pages of Google. However, there are quite a few mini articles on how to make this product that are a difficult to understand, and a couple of basic YouTube videos.
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  • Profile picture of the author Clark
    How many ad views are you receiving for the keywords you are measuring against Google's estimates?

    I assume you maxed out your daily budget so your ad will show all day?

    These are only estimates and if there is a "Buzz" as you state then Google's traffic estimator will not ever have the ability to predict a rise in popularity in the current state.
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  • Profile picture of the author patfl
    I don't think Google would allow such a budget for a new account. I remember when I created my account, my limit was $50 per campaign per day, or something like that.

    Patrice
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  • Profile picture of the author grumpyb
    google are there to make money from adwords
    Adwords can be a licence to spend money but if you research your keywords and products thouroughly then you van come up with acost effective campaign.
    use both the keyword tool and the data in your adwords account to establish the performance of those key words
    BUT remember that google only delivers clicks and sometimes via the content network the clicks or leads will be low qaulity unqualified leads
    So you need a click from someone who is actually looking for what you are selling THEN you need to have your offer and BUY NOW which will entice the looker to buy
    Quality Not quantity is IMHO the paramount thing here
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  • Profile picture of the author sunnyman
    The click estimator calculates NOT just the searches/day but factors in that only a percentage of searchers will ever click on an AdWords ad. If as said, the history of that phrase is poor - due to poorly written ads - then I guess the estimator probably gets more pessimistic.

    Usually, a CTR of 10% or so is considered FANTASTIC by advertisers... more commonly the CTR is something like 1%. You do the math.
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    • Profile picture of the author pj413
      Originally Posted by sunnyman View Post

      The click estimator calculates NOT just the searches/day but factors in that only a percentage of searchers will ever click on an AdWords ad. If as said, the history of that phrase is poor - due to poorly written ads - then I guess the estimator probably gets more pessimistic.

      Usually, a CTR of 10% or so is considered FANTASTIC by advertisers... more commonly the CTR is something like 1%. You do the math.

      What is the CTR of organic traffic?
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      • Profile picture of the author Darth Executor
        Originally Posted by pj413 View Post

        What is the CTR of organic traffic?
        It would depend on your title, URL and meta description. It also depends on the same attributes of the other organic competition as well as the ad copy of your ppc competition. If everybody around you knows what's their doing it's gonna be split pretty evenly. If there's one hardcore guru surrounded by noobs, the guru's gonna cream them all.

        If by CTR you mean the CTR of the people who click through the links on your page, that depends on how well targeted it is. If you're trying to rank for "free tips" on something, you probably won't sell much.
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